Who poisoned the locusts?

[Lummel]

There is no separate peace. The only reason why Daenerys has to come to terms is because of the threat of an external war and she can't fight on two fronts at once, equally the external threat encourages the sons of the Harpies, they risk being crushed but for the external threat.

The poison is the same as when a person overdoses - they throw up. The poison would have been effective in a small enough dose. Belwas survived because he scoffed the whole lot and then started to throw up. If the intention was to frighten Daenerys then somebody had huge luck in Belwas being so greedy for locusts.

[RK Rajagopal]

There is no separate peace. The only reason why Daenerys has to come to terms is because of the threat of an external war and she can't fight on two fronts at once, equally the external threat encourages the sons of the Harpies, they risk being crushed but for the external threat.

No. How can the Harpy be held responsible for what the Volantene / Qarthene do? Dany didn't make any peace with them. Dany made peace with the Harpies, and they seem to have kept their word, if it is indeed the Shavepate who did the poisoning.

The poison is the same as when a person overdoses - they throw up. The poison would have been effective in a small enough dose. Belwas survived because he scoffed the whole lot and then started to throw up. If the intention was to frighten Daenerys then somebody had huge luck in Belwas being so greedy for locusts.

I am unclear on what you are implying. Are you saying that if taken in small amounts, the poison might have been lethal? I don't think so.

If not, then there is no question of luck. Somebody (Dany or not) would have eaten the poison (and gotten sick, but not died), and that alone might have been enough for Dany to break the peace. As you said, the Shavepate doesn't want Dany dead - that's why it makes sense to give a non-lethal poison.

[Ygrain]

I am unclear on what you are implying. Are you saying that if taken in small amounts, the poison might have been lethal? I don't think so.

Basically what I said above, as well - that the huge amount of the locusts which Belwas had eaten prevented the poison from fully affecting his system, as it would have if he had eaten just a handful. He got sick pretimely.

[RK Rajagopal]

Basically what I said above, as well - that the huge amount of the locusts which Belwas had eaten prevented the poison from fully affecting his system, as it would have if he had eaten just a handful. He got sick pretimely.

If killing is the intent, I really don't think such a lousy poison would be employed. On the other hand, if it was deliberately meant to be non-lethal, everything would make a lot more sense, in my opinion.

[butterbumps!]

These Meereenese Blot essays again.

The essay in question presupposes that the peace brokered by the marriage to Hiz was meant to be everlasting, and that as such, it's in Hiz's best interest to not oust Dany. The whole essay and argument for the Shavepate is based on this assumption.

The Shavepate may have well wanted to frame Hiz and remove his claim, but the logic of the essay is skewed. Hiz also has excellent reason to oust Dany, and that's in fact exactly what it looks like he and the Green Grace are trying to do all this while-- re-erect the zo Loraq dynasty and return to slaving, but now in charge of the other families.

Both Hiz/ Green Grace and the Shavepate have motive in committing the poisonings. If the Shavepate did it, the target might have been Hiz-- he's the one who has a fetish for hot foods, which is why his abstaining here is hugely suspect. Despite what the essay says, Hiz also has motive for wanting to cement his place as king and oust Dany (his family is now raised to king status, but without her, slavery can go on as before).

At any rate, that essay builds the case out of the presumption that Hiz has no reason to wish ill to Dany once peace was brokered, which is wrong. I think the Shavepate could have done it simply to set off a powder keg, but I think it's stacking evidence a bit manipulatively to say that Hiz would have no motive.

[Ygrain]

If killing is the intent, I really don't think such a lousy poison would be employed. On the other hand, if it was deliberately meant to be non-lethal, everything would make a lot more sense, in my opinion.

If you want to poison someone, there are basically two options: something very fast, or something very slow. If you need a sure insta death, you go for the first one, only it's not very subtle - e.g. the strangler. Or you take something slow, the effect of which would resemble some disease of digestive tract, and the effect doesn't become manifest until it is too late to purge the body of the poison because it is already doing damage to the internal organs - like tears of Lys. Now, what happens when you are poisoned with the latter type but throw it out before the poison fully takes effect?

Hence why it is so crucial to establish what happened to Belwas: did he throw because it was the supposed effect of a fast-working poison, or did he throw because the huge amount of locusts didn't sit well with his stomach and thus he actually got rid of a slow poison before it could fully affect him?

[RK Rajagopal]

These Meereenese Blot essays again.

The essay in question presupposes that the peace brokered by the marriage to Hiz was meant to be everlasting, and that as such, it's in Hiz's best interest to not oust Dany. The whole essay and argument for the Shavepate is based on this assumption.

The Shavepate may have well wanted to frame Hiz and remove his claim, but the logic of the essay is skewed. Hiz also has excellent reason to oust Dany, and that's in fact exactly what it looks like he and the Green Grace are trying to do all this while-- re-erect the zo Loraq dynasty and return to slaving, but now in charge of the other families.

Both Hiz/ Green Grace and the Shavepate have motive in committing the poisonings. If the Shavepate did it, the target might have been Hiz-- he's the one who has a fetish for hot foods, which is why his abstaining here is hugely suspect. Despite what the essay says, Hiz also has motive for wanting to cement his place as king and oust Dany (his family is now raised to king status, but without her, slavery can go on as before).

At any rate, that essay builds the case out of the presumption that Hiz has no reason to wish ill to Dany once peace was brokered, which is wrong. I think the Shavepate could have done it simply to set off a powder keg, but I think it's stacking evidence a bit manipulatively to say that Hiz would have no motive.

For now, let's assume that Hizdar had motives to kill Dany too. Question: Why would he choose to do it by:

1. Poison - which she might not eat (as it turns out)

2. With a weak poison - which might not kill (Belwas didn't die)

3. In a public place - where it leads the blame directly to him.

On the other hand, if you think Shavepate did it:

1. No matter who eats the poison, the peace is likely lost

2. The poison shouldn't be lethal. What if Dany eats it and dies? Shavepate's power largely depends on Dany.

3. The blame is conveniently shifted to Hizdar.

[RK Rajagopal]

If you want to poison someone, there are basically two options: something very fast, or something very slow. If you need a sure insta death, you go for the first one, only it's not very subtle - e.g. the strangler. Or you take something slow, the effect of which would resemble some disease of digestive tract, and the effect doesn't become manifest until it is too late to purge the body of the poison because it is already doing damage to the internal organs - like tears of Lys. Now, what happens when you are poisoned with the latter type but throw it out before the poison fully takes effect?

Hence why it is so crucial to establish what happened to Belwas: did he throw because it was the supposed effect of a fast-working poison, or did he throw because the huge amount of locusts didn't sit well with his stomach and thus he actually got rid of a slow poison before it could fully affect him?

I think it is a safe guess to make that there exists poisons in ASOIAF which cause certain death, and which are available to a man with the power of Hizdar. I don't understand why he wouldn't use such a poison. A botched attempt could end quite badly for him.

[Ygrain]

For now, let's assume that Hizdar had motives to kill Dany too. Question: Why would he choose to do it by:

1. Poison - which she might not eat (as it turns out)

2. With a weak poison - which might not kill (Belwas didn't die)

3. In a public place - where it leads the blame directly to him.

I think it is a safe guess to make that there exists poisons in ASOIAF which cause certain death, and which are available to a man with the power of Hizdar. I don't understand why he wouldn't use such a poison. A botched attempt could end quite badly for him.

I think you are still missing the point of what I'm trying to say. The poison is NOT weak. It would have killed Belwas, had he not thrown quite soon after he ingested it - basically, his voracity saved his life. The same for the effect of the poison becoming manifest in a public place - again, due to Belwas' enormous appetite, overtaxing his stomach with something inedible. Take something like death cap - easily arranged, and the effect comes within 8-48 hours. The person becomes sick almost two days after ingestion. Perfectly lethal, and not drawing attention at all. However, if the person gets sick soon after the meal for some other reason, his/her chances for survival are much better.

[butterbumps!]

For now, let's assume that Hizdar had motives to kill Dany too. Question: Why would he choose to do it by:

1. Poison - which she might not eat (as it turns out)

2. With a weak poison - which might not kill (Belwas didn't die)

3. In a public place - where it leads the blame directly to him.

On the other hand, if you think Shavepate did it:

1. No matter who eats the poison, the peace is likely lost

2. The poison shouldn't be lethal. What if Dany eats it and dies? Shavepate's power largely depends on Dany.

3. The blame is conveniently shifted to Hizdar.

Just to get this out there, I don't really have a horse in this particular race. I just have major problems with the premise and conclusions of all those essays, and specifically, the way this one is based on a major supposition is hugely misleading.

That said, I'll try to answer your questions:

Hizdhar:

1. I'm not sure that poison is really such a bad solution as it tends to be subtle. And we're also not really sure how the poison was intended to work. I can say this, though-- if sudden death was the intention, it would look way less suspect to do it this way than to kill Dany in bed/ poison her at a private meal in the pyramid.

2. Was it weak? Isn't Belwas like 40 times Dany's size?

3. The Shavepate shifted it to Hiz. We have no idea how Hiz would have played this out had a dragon not come out of thin air to distract from the poisoning. For all we know he'd have had an explanation for why Dany might have dropped dead in the middle of the fighting pit. In fact, doing this publicly would have been in his best PR interests.

Shavepate:

1. Yes, peace is lost, which we know he's totally into. But it seems a little suspect that Hiz-- who likes hot food-- miraculously chooses against eating these.

2. Yea, he depends on Dany. But the thing is, we really don't know if that poison was meant to be fatal or not. Belwas, being as how he's a more agile Yellow Whale, hardly counts as the "control" in this experiment. If it was meant to simply harm Dany, but not cause death, then I think the Shavepate looks better than Hiz for this. But this is not something the text can tell us right now.

3. I'm pretty sure this guy would blame Hiz for anything from a toothache to a plague of locusts. He's been blaming everything on Hiz/ nobles from the outset. I don't think this proves anything.

[RK Rajagopal]

I think you are still missing the point of what I'm trying to say. The poison is NOT weak. It would have killed Belwas, had he not thrown quite soon after he ingested it - basically, his voracity saved his life. The same for the effect of the poison becoming manifest in a public place - again, due to Belwas' enormous appetite, overtaxing his stomach with something inedible. Take something like death cap - easily arranged, and the effect comes within 8-48 hours. The person becomes sick almost two days after ingestion. Perfectly lethal, and not drawing attention at all. However, if the person gets sick soon after the meal for some other reason, his/her chances for survival are much better.

OK, fair enough. We have two choices: (1) Assume that the poison was lethal, and Belwas was lucky to survive. (2) Assume that it was designed to be non-lethal.

Up to you to decide which case better fits with the context. If we do assume the poison was lethal, it still doesn't explain why Hizdar would ask her to eat it in public (causing him to be a suspect) and leave it to chance that Dany might refuse. In case it was supposed to be non lethal, I think the Shavepate theory is a pretty good fit. That's just my opinion. You decide.

[RK Rajagopal]

Just to get this out there, I don't really have a horse in this particular race. I just have major problems with the premise and conclusions of all those essays, and specifically, the way this one is based on a major supposition is hugely misleading.

That said, I'll try to answer your questions:

Hizdhar:

1. I'm not sure that poison is really such a bad solution as it tends to be subtle. And we're also not really sure how the poison was intended to work. I can say this, though-- if sudden death was the intention, it would look way less suspect to do it this way than to kill Dany in bed/ poison her at a private meal in the pyramid.

This doesn't address the case of Dany refusing, and somebody else eating the locusts - in which case Hizdar is busted. Would he leave that to chance?

[butterbumps!]

This doesn't address the case of Dany refusing, and somebody else eating the locusts - in which case Hizdar is busted. Would he leave that to chance?

Let's back up.

The answer to this hinges on whether that poison was supposed to be fatal. If so, then you're running into this same problem with the Shavepate as a suspect. Would he chance a fatal poison if Dany could eat it? According to you and the essay, no (though, I'm not so sure I'd agree as I don't know how necessary Dany is to his endgame-- I'm just saying I simply don't know if he feels truly that dependent on Dany, or whether he's looking to seize the city for the "middle class" he's part of).

Onto the poisoning itself, I'm not sure how much attention Hiz has paid to Dany. She shares her food with her subjects, but Hiz and the other nobles don't really mix that way. There's an argument here that Hiz, who's not always super observant, would not have thought she'd be allowing her servants to eat from her platter, thereby lessening that possibility. The Green Grace would have known of this possibility, but I'm not certain Hiz would have anticipated this.

[Ygrain]

OK, fair enough. We have two choices: (1) Assume that the poison was lethal, and Belwas was lucky to survive. (2) Assume that it was designed to be non-lethal.

Up to you to decide which case better fits with the context. If we do assume the poison was lethal, it still doesn't explain why Hizdar would ask her to eat it in public (causing him to be a suspect) and leave it to chance that Dany might refuse. In case it was supposed to be non lethal, I think the Shavepate theory is a pretty good fit. That's just my opinion. You decide.

If the poison took effect after a sufficiently long time, the connection would have been obscured; plus, had Belwas not crammed eveything in his big mouth, Hizdahr might have pretended to nibble on a couple and thus avoid suspicion.

If Dany refused to eat... well, tough luck, another attempt at another opportunity.

BTW, is it just me, or does the setting resemble the Red Wedding? An old lady scheming, a blood relative involved, the dwarves jousting... :-)

[RK Rajagopal]

Let's back up.

The answer to this hinges on whether that poison was supposed to be fatal. If so, then you're running into this same problem with the Shavepate as a suspect. Would he chance a fatal poison if Dany could eat it? According to you and the essay, no (though, I'm not so sure I'd agree as I don't know how necessary Dany is to his endgame-- I'm just saying I simply don't know if he feels truly that dependent on Dany, or whether he's looking to seize the city for the "middle class" he's part of).

Onto the poisoning itself, I'm not sure how much attention Hiz has paid to Dany. She shares her food with her subjects, but Hiz and the other nobles don't really mix that way.

There's an argument here that Hiz, who's not always super observant, would not have thought she'd be allowing her servants to eat from her platter, thereby lessening that possibility. The Green Grace would have known of this possibility, but I'm not certain Hiz would have anticipated this.

That's exactly why I'm saying that the poison was meant to be non-lethal.

[RK Rajagopal]

If Dany refused to eat... well, tough luck, another attempt at another opportunity.

No. If Dany refuses to eat and somebody else does, he's busted. That's it. No more opportunities.

[Ygrain]

No. If Dany refuses to eat and somebody else does, he's busted. That's it. No more opportunities.

Sigh. Read again what I wrote previously, please. If the symptoms appear many hours later, people are unlikely to make the connection, especially if Hizdahr had a chance to pretend to be eating.

[butterbumps!]

That's exactly why I'm saying that the poison was meant to be non-lethal.

But you are putting the cart before the horse on this.

You are trying to argue the poison was non-lethal in order to pin this on the Shavepate. That is circular logic.

IF the poison was meant to be non- lethal and IF the point was to create a shit storm to blame on Hiz, THEN yes, the Shavepate probably did it, or at least, Hiz can be safely eliminated as a culprit.

IF the poison was lethal THEN it probably was not the Shavepate (though depending on what he's looking for, he shouldn't be eliminated). If it was lethal posion, Hiz looks better for it.

But, for heaven's sake, whether the poison was meant to be lethal is still a huge question. This is hardly conclusive, as both parties have ample motive to poison Hiz's food, and the intended outcome of the poison is still a mystery.

[RK Rajagopal]

To summarize, there are 4 possible cases - the poison can be lethal / non-lethal, and Hizdar/Shavepate did it. I don't think Non-lethal Hizdar and Lethal Shavepate make any sense. That leaves us with Lethal Hizdar and Non-lethal Shavepate. Of these two, non-lethal shavepate would fit well - I haven't seen an argument contradicting it. Lethal Hizdar might cause problems, as Dany might not eat the poison,and he'll be busted.

[RK Rajagopal]

Sigh. Read again what I wrote previously, please. If the symptoms appear many hours later, people are unlikely to make the connection, especially if Hizdahr had a chance to pretend to be eating.

I did read it. I just disagree with you. I think people might well make the connection.