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Dont you think getting Bob drunk when hunting is a really weak plan?


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49 replies to this topic

#1 Seņor de la Tormenta

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 02:15 PM

Seriously, Ned knows, he is going to tell it to the King, theres almost no time and Cerseis big move is to make him drunk (badly) when hunting so he has an accident?

What if Bob didnt miss the shot or had a non lethal wound? Or just couldnt find the beast? or pass out before?. Was there a back up plan? It seams like there was one, because Cersei did no attempt to leave the city, but time was short and he was guarded by Selmy and Renly...

Edited by Seņor de la Tormenta, 02 December 2013 - 02:18 PM.


#2 Jevans

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 02:20 PM

He was guarded, but Pycelle is present and trusted. He was probably told to make sure Robert died.

Edited by Jevans, 02 December 2013 - 02:21 PM.


#3 The Wolfswood

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 02:25 PM

The whole "Get Bob drunk plan" was hatched before Ned revealed that he had figured something out to Cersei.  Assuming that provoking him to fight in the melee was also a plan, I think what matters more to Cersei is that Bob's death appears accidental.  Granted, they're likely trying to off him as quickly as possible, but avoiding culpability is important.  



#4 RoamingRonin

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 02:26 PM

Robert getting killed by the boar was one of many plans. Varys or Cersei (or both) mention this, I think. 



#5 jet199

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 02:28 PM

I do feel there might have been something else going on there which we haven't been told about. I doubt Robert was the kind of man who ever hunted sober so drugging the wine wouldn't have made that much difference to his normal state.

#6 Bright Blue Eyes

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 02:34 PM

Of course it was a weak, no, an idiotic plan!

 

That's Cersei for you. She is literally incapable of acknowledging the possibility that one of her plans could do anything but succeed. This characteristic of her repeats itself countless times through the entire series and is a feature of Jaime, Tyrion and Tywin as well (to a lesser extent).

 

 

Robert getting killed by the boar was one of many plans. Varys or Cersei (or both) mention this, I think. 

Varys does imply that - when he tries to manipulate Ned. But no Lannister ever thinks about it, nor would it be likely. I wouldn't trust Varys' implications, he lied about a thousand times too often.



#7 Dilecta

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 02:48 PM

Of course it was a weak, no, an idiotic plan!

 

That's Cersei for you. She is literally incapable of acknowledging the possibility that one of her plans could do anything but succeed. 

 

<snip>

:agree:   

 

 Cersei's MO is to prey on Big Bad Bobby Baratheon's weaknesses:  his pride to try to get him into the melee, and his fondness for wine for the hunting trip.  She can't really doesn't consider anything beyond that.  



#8 Mad Monkey

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 02:54 PM

I like to think that the majority of their marriage was basically a Wile E. Coyote skit, with Cersei as Wile E. coming up with increasingly convoluted plots to off her oblivious husband (Robert Baratheon as the Roadrunner). The strongwine for example came in a large industrial size jar from Acmetm



#9 Jon's Queen Consort

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 03:00 PM

I think that Robert had many issues PTSD and depression. So I think that he didn't cared what would happen to him.


Edited by Jon's Queen Consort, 02 December 2013 - 03:00 PM.


#10 JLE

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 03:09 PM

Yeah, the point was "if it wasn't one thing, it'll be another". Things that have a chance of killing Robert in a way that looks accidental - eventually ONE of them is going to come off. Whereas a dagger in the back could not be anything other than murder which would implicate somebody, and make it too easy to pin on the Lannisters.

Of course, the fact that any such plan has to look accidental would give Robert a chance of surviving it.

But, say, supposing you set up things that have a 10-20% chance of working while looking accidental. How many of those do you have to do before the balance of probability is that *at least one of them* works? Maybe half a dozen. Maybe a dozen. If Robert turns out to be sober enough to kill the beast, it'll be a riding accident, falling off his horse. If he manages to stay on his horse, somebody could "accidentally" collide with him and give him a push - of course any single attempt, having to look accidental, might not succeed, but with enough chances, something will. Or perhaps he could be ambushed by "Targaryen sympathisers" in "revenge" for the number of times he's alleged to have already tried to have Viserys assassinated...



#11 Bright Blue Eyes

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 03:19 PM

Yeah, the point was "if it wasn't one thing, it'll be another". Things that have a chance of killing Robert in a way that looks accidental - eventually ONE of them is going to come off. Whereas a dagger in the back could not be anything other than murder which would implicate somebody, and make it too easy to pin on the Lannisters.

Of course, the fact that any such plan has to look accidental would give Robert a chance of surviving it.

But, say, supposing you set up things that have a 10-20% chance of working while looking accidental. How many of those do you have to do before the balance of probability is that *at least one of them* works? Maybe half a dozen. Maybe a dozen. If Robert turns out to be sober enough to kill the beast, it'll be a riding accident, falling off his horse. If he manages to stay on his horse, somebody could "accidentally" collide with him and give him a push - of course any single attempt, having to look accidental, might not succeed, but with enough chances, something will. Or perhaps he could be ambushed by "Targaryen sympathisers" in "revenge" for the number of times he's alleged to have already tried to have Viserys assassinated...

A very sensible way to assassinate somebody - unless you can already count the hours till you meet the headsman and need him to die now.



#12 Roose The Weddingcrasher

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 03:24 PM

I think the plan wasn't that bad compared to Peryr's dagger-lie.


Edited by Roose The Weddingcrasher, 02 December 2013 - 03:26 PM.


#13 direwienerdog

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 03:27 PM

Her plan all along was to nag him to death. Not fast  it in the end a sure thing.



#14 jet199

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 03:44 PM

I think Cersie probably took credit for Robert's death but we see from her ideas about assassinating Jon Snow and bringing down Marg that she isn't really organised enough to pull it off. I think it's a similar situation to Jon Arryn's death. Everyone assumes Cersie's done it when actually someone else, a bit smarter, got it done while she was sitting around gloating about how her cunning plan was.



#15 RoamingRonin

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 03:50 PM

Varys does imply that - when he tries to manipulate Ned. But no Lannister ever thinks about it, nor would it be likely. I wouldn't trust Varys' implications, he lied about a thousand times too often.

 

Cersei and Lancel discuss her plans quite often. I'm going to take Varys' word for the truth on this. He doesn't lie as much as people think he does. 



#16 Srslyjc

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 03:59 PM

I think that Robert had many issues PTSD and depression. So I think that he didn't cared what would happen to him.

Why? He isn't the happiest guy but I do think he'd care about his wife murdering him to cover up her incest. 



#17 Jon's Queen Consort

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 04:03 PM

Why? He isn't the happiest guy but I do think he'd care about his wife murdering him to cover up her incest. 

What I say is that he never cared to take care of himself. He knew the consequences of his actions but he didn't cared.



#18 Bright Blue Eyes

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 04:09 PM

 

Cersei and Lancel discuss her plans quite often. I'm going to take Varys' word for the truth on this. He doesn't lie as much as people think he does. 

Varys is oddly unspecific though. He always lies like that, blanket statements that could mean anything and their mother, but the people he tells interpret them according to the circumstances - and err.



#19 Hear me Meow

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 04:13 PM

Varys does imply that - when he tries to manipulate Ned. But no Lannister ever thinks about it, nor would it be likely. I wouldn't trust Varys' implications, he lied about a thousand times too often.

 

How does persuading Ned his mercy is a mistake help Varys? If Ned feels the fact he told Cersei doomed the king why will he be more likely to confess to treason to save Sansa (assuming this is what Varys wants)? I'm not sure how this manipulation was supposed to work.

 

There doesn't seem any obvious reason for Varys to lie here. Moreover, the 'lie' frames a very important issue in the story; Ned's mercy. It seems weird GrrM made something of a theme out of this, and then misrepresented the consequences of Ned's mercy by having Varys tell a needless lie. What purpose does this serve? 

 

edit: unless Varys is just being nasty for the sake of it.


Edited by Hear me Meow, 02 December 2013 - 04:14 PM.


#20 Bright Blue Eyes

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 04:26 PM

 

How does persuading Ned his mercy is a mistake help Varys? If Ned feels the fact he told Cersei doomed the king why will he be more likely to confess to treason to save Sansa (assuming this is what Varys wants)? I'm not sure how this manipulation was supposed to work.

 

There doesn't seem any obvious reason for Varys to lie here. Moreover, the 'lie' frames a very important issue in the story; Ned's mercy. It seems weird GrrM made something of a theme out of this, and then misrepresented the consequences of Ned's mercy by having Varys tell a needless lie. What purpose does this serve? 

 

edit: unless Varys is just being nasty for the sake of it.

The lie presents the Lannisters more powerful than they truly are. If Ned knew how tenous Cersei's hold truly was, he may have waited for other options instead of confessing. The confession weakened Robb and Stannis, at the time the two greatest threats to the Lannister regime and thus prolonged the war.