Aegon is real

[CJ McLannister]

To be of the save side. Same as Littlefinger tells Sansta to always be Alayne, even if they're totally alone. How stupid would it be to risk years and years of planning, just because Varys mistakenly thinks he can talk openly for one moment? He'd have to have a very good reason to not stick to the lie.

But why say anyhting at all? Why not expressly say that Tyrion or the Tyrells sent him, and leave it at that, if that's the message he wants out there?

[Ygrain]

But why say anyhting at all? Why not expressly say that Tyrion or the Tyrells sent him, and leave it at that, if that's the message he wants out there?

Because Aegon's arrival is to be an undoing of House Lannister; retribution for what Tywin had done. Tywin's deed brought House Lannister to greatest height, and it will be the cause of their complete downfall.

[Rooseman]

But why say anyhting at all? Why not expressly say that Tyrion or the Tyrells sent him, and leave it at that, if that's the message he wants out there?

My personal take is, that he's playing a deeper game than Illyrio. I don't buy his "for the good of the realm" thing one bit. He knows best, that who sits on the Iron Throne matters little and less. And if Illyrio and Aegon are just pawns in his game, it makes sense that he lies in front of Kevan, since the little birds are listening.

[Mladen]

But why say anyhting at all? Why not expressly say that Tyrion or the Tyrells sent him, and leave it at that, if that's the message he wants out there?

I will not enter into "breaking the 4th wall" debate again, but if the author found that those lines need to be there, then they are. Just as Sansa had to be there so we could hear what actually happen to Jon Arryn. I believe this will resolve in TWOW, or ADOS...

[PrimeRhaegar]

Actually, for me until he is proven to be Rhaegar's son, he is false. Plenty of hints in the text point to him being a Blackfyre.

It isn't mentioned. All we got is on his deathbed he asked to have skull boiled down, and gilded to be brought back to Westeros when they took the IT.

Manipulation is one of Varys's strong suits.

and don't let anyone convince you otherwise my brother or sister stick to your guns until or if Mr martin makes it clear whether he is or not, everything else is mere speculation and theories that cannot be proven.

[Chatty Duelist]

If Aegon is a Blackfyre, why did Illyrio house and feed Viserys and Daenerys? Why did he give her the dragon eggs? Why did he even give them anything save death and destruction if he wanted a Blackfyre on the IT?

[RoamingRonin]

I go back and forth on this one. I lean toward him not being Aegon, but I can't get on board with the Blackfyre angle either- or at least not to the level of specificity that some have put it. I don't think he's Illyrio's son. I am intrigued by the theory that he's Ashara Dayne's son, but I don't see much evidence of that either.

JonCon certainly thinks that he is Aegon, but is is possible that Varys also thinks so? The Varys-Kevan thing is just a little odd. Varys is a liar to be sure, but what's the point of lying to Kevan? Why tell him anything at all while waiting for him to die? Does he think Qyburn is as good at his job as he was?

To the bolded part: I agree completely. I can accept he's fake but the Blackfyre pill is hard to swallow and goes against the idea that (f)Aegon as king has nothing to do with blood or birthright. It's all about ability which Varys often talks about:

"Well, it would have been more in keeping with tradition." The eunuch tittered. "Thankfully, wiser heads prevailed, and the Conclave accepted the fact of Pycelle's dismissal and set about choosing his successor. After giving due consideration to Maester Turquin the cordwainer's son and Maester Erreck the hedge knight's bastard, and thereby demonstrating to their own satisfaction that ability counts for more than birth in their order, the Conclave was on the verge of sending us Maester Gormon, a Tyrell of Highgarden. When I told your lord father, he acted at once."

Oh, Varys. You make me titter IRL with each re-read.

JonCon might be deluding himself into believing (f)Aegon is real so that he can make amends. He believes his failures led to Rhaegar's death. It makes sense but with JonCon... I don't know... I believe he would be the one person out of the group to call shenanigans on the plot and point out (f)Aegon as a fake.

[Mladen]

If Aegon is a Blackfyre, why did Illyrio house and feed Viserys and Daenerys? Why did he give her the dragon eggs? Why did he even give them anything save death and destruction if he wanted a Blackfyre on the IT?

Because he needed them to win Westeros, and then he would most likely come with the "real" heir. In any possible situation, he would win. As for eggs, I doubt anyone could have thought those stoned eggs could actually produce dragons. And he helped them because if you have two Targaryens, you could easily be hiding the third. Helping Targaryen cause allowed him to plant Blackfyre seed without anyone actually doubting it.

[Chatty Duelist]

Because he needed them to win Westeros, and then he would most likely come with the "real" heir. In any possible situation, he would win. As for eggs, I doubt anyone could have thought those stoned eggs could actually produce dragons. And he helped them because if you have two Targaryens, you could easily be hiding the third. Helping Targaryen cause allowed him to plant Blackfyre seed without anyone actually doubting it.

And how does that tie in with the Blackfyres? Say Dany and Viserys conquer Westeros, burning it to the ground in the process, and comes in the knight in shining armor, Aegon, kills them, and takes up the IT. You don't need a Blackfyre to do that. And how can he be a Blackfyre when BFs have been all dead for 40 years?

[Ygrain]

And how does that tie in with the Blackfyres? Say Dany and Viserys conquer Westeros, burning it to the ground in the process, and comes in the knight in shining armor, Aegon, kills them, and takes up the IT. You don't need a Blackfyre to do that. And how can he be a Blackfyre when BFs have been all dead for 40 years?

Male line has been dead. There's not a word of females.

[Mladen]

And how does that tie in with the Blackfyres? Say Dany and Viserys conquer Westeros, burning it to the ground in the process, and comes in the knight in shining armor, Aegon, kills them, and takes up the IT. You don't need a Blackfyre to do that. And how can he be a Blackfyre when BFs have been all dead for 40 years?

Male line has been dead. There's not a word of females.

OK, Ygrain answered the last question. It is easy. Let we say Dany and Viserys wins the IT, and now suddenly appears Rhaegar's son. His claim is better than anyone's. Given the bad PR Viserys would ensure through Dothrakis, Aegon would even have support of all Westerosi in killing Dany and Viserys. he would be literal liberator of the Westeros.

[CJ McLannister]

So, then, Illyrio would have seen a benefit in encouraging Viserys to be an entitled piece of shit. That actually sort of makes sense.

[Ygrain]

Yes, have him do the dirty work and totally discredit himself meanwhile, so when Aegon comes, everyone welcomes him with open arms.

Alternately, we may have here the same scenario that we suspect might have happened with Aerys: manipulating an entitled brat into the very opposite that what he has been advised to do. We know that Illyrio advised Viserys not to go with the Dothraki, and played his "no-one tells a dragon what to do" act. We know that Illyrio expected Dany to die in the Dothraki sea. Could it be that he wanted them both dead while buying Drogo's help for Aegon?

[KingOfTheDirewolves]

I really hate people who think Aegon is fake, they tell other people that 'How on earth could he be real', but can't provide the evidence. The Blackfyre's are dead, Daemon never had any female descendants, and don't think 'Oh he must of had one child that was female'. Oberyn Martell never had any males, all his 8 children are female. The Blackfyre line died when Barristan killed Maelys on the Stepstones. Aegon may be real, he may not be, i'm not gonna bring my personal opinion into this but all i'm saying is that he is NOT a Blackfyre.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

Varys is a pro Targ? But it wasn't Varys who poisoned Aerys about Rhaegar?

[Mladen]

I really hate people who think Aegon is fake, they tell other people that 'How on earth could he be real', but can't provide the evidence. The Blackfyre's are dead, Daemon never had any female descendants, and don't think 'Oh he must of had one child that was female'. Oberyn Martell never had any males, all his 8 children are female. The Blackfyre line died when Barristan killed Maelys on the Stepstones. Aegon may be real, he may not be, i'm not gonna bring my personal opinion into this but all i'm saying is that he is NOT a Blackfyre.

And future daughters of Sand Snake won't have Oberyn's blood? The fact male line extinguished means a little in terms of blood and hereditary laws. Young Griff perhaps is not Blackfyre in name, but he could easily have their blood. And that is enough to be a dragon.

[Ygrain]

I really hate people who think Aegon is fake, they tell other people that 'How on earth could he be real', but can't provide the evidence. The Blackfyre's are dead, Daemon never had any female descendants, and don't think 'Oh he must of had one child that was female'. Oberyn Martell never had any males, all his 8 children are female. The Blackfyre line died when Barristan killed Maelys on the Stepstones. Aegon may be real, he may not be, i'm not gonna bring my personal opinion into this but all i'm saying is that he is NOT a Blackfyre.

Huh? What does Daemon have to do with his sons carrying on the lineage? It's actually quite simple for a male.

And once again, with Maelys, only the male line died - the same as with Viserys, the official Targ male line died. Exactly the same situation.

[complexphoenix]

The key reason I don't believe Aegon is real is this: switching the real Aegon with a fair-haired peasant baby would only make sense if Varys knew in advance that the baby's corpse would be unrecognizable, and there's no way he could have known that. He had no way to know who would end up attacking the nursery, or what method of killing they'd use. If whoever-reached-Aegon-first put a dagger through the boy's chest or smothered him with a pillow instead of smashing his head against the wall, those who inspected the corpse would have known it wasn't Aegon. The Valyrian features of silver-gold hair and purple eyes are exetremely rare in Westeros; a baby could surely be found in Pisswater with light blond hair and blue eyes, but that's not the same. To find a really convincing fake Varys should have needed to get a Valyrian-featured baby from the Free Cities. But he claims to have got it from Pisswater.

The tale of the baby-switch reeks to me of a lie confected after-the-fact, crafted specifically to take advantage of the glimmer of uncertainty left in people's minds by the unrecognizable condition of Aegon's corpse.

As to who Young Griff really is? He could be any boy with Valyrian features who was born around the same time as Aegon. He could be anything from a Blackfyre to some Lysene whore's baby. It's upbringing and education, not birth, that makes a man act like a prince. Power is a shadow on a wall; if Varys can make enough people believe that this boy is their rightful king, his actual birth won't matter a fig.

[Chatty Duelist]

And future daughters of Sand Snake won't have Oberyn's blood? The fact male line extinguished means a little in terms of blood and hereditary laws. Young Griff perhaps is not Blackfyre in name, but he could easily have their blood. And that is enough to be a dragon.

By your definition, the Blackfyres are Targaryens and the Targaryens are Blackfyres seeing as though they're both descended from the same dude and have the same blood making this debate moot.

[Mladen]

By your definition, the Blackfyres are Targaryens and the Targaryens are Blackfyres seeing as though they're both descended from the same dude and have the same blood making this debate moot.

In terms of blood relatives Targaryens and Blackfyres are close. But Rhaegar's son is not the Blackfyre boy, so the debate is not moot. Simply, as Illyrio said "red or black, a dragon is a dragon", but that doesn't mean that two different persons are one.