First of all, I'll explain the method. I call it the Laocoonte method.
You find out some wreckage, and there are heads, pieces of limbs,... You guess it was a sculpture, and you want you know what it looked like. You might not even have all the pieces, but you still find it's worth the try.
Well, this is a story, not a sculpture, but the method holds. I try to build a story with details laid about in the series. Theses pieces must fit. The theory stands while it's not proven that:
* the pieces don't fit
* there's another piece not taken into account
* some of your own stuff is false
Eventually, GRRM will release the books but we can play the game in the meanwhile.
What we have (it can be elaborated)
Rhaegar mistrusted Aerys, he planned “something” about it
Aerys mistrusted anyone
Aerys used Elia and her children as hostages
Rhaegar's whereabuts were unkown to Jaime, and probably Aerys, but he was in touch with “someone” out there
Jon Connington was Rhaegar's best friend, together with Arthur Dayne
Hightower obeyed Aerys over any other consideration
Hightower behaviour is not proper to the Lord Commander od the Kings Guard, unless there's something more never stated in the books (btw, please tell me where it's written than Jon Snow was born at the Tower of Joy)
Arthur Dayne was an outstanding army leader
Robert Rebellion was a serious threat
Hightower, Dayne and Whent are left aside in the final battle.
What didn't happen
Hightower didn't escort Rhaegar back to KL, nor took care of Aerys
AD didn't help Rhaegar with the army
JC wasn't called back
Lyanna wasn't allowed to KL, or Rhaegar didn't trust to take her.
What we can easily guess
Rhaegar asked something in exchange when he came back. He'd haggle with Aerys for the price of his coming back through some intermediare.
There was something of huge value at ToJ to leave three KG, not only a pregnant second wife .
My own stuff
Rhaegar wanted Aegon out of Aerys reach. He required him to be handed out.
Aerys charged it to Hightower.
Rhaegar mistrusted Hightower's loyalty and ordered him to stay at ToJ to guard Aegon, as Aerys had ordered him. In fact, not to reveal ToJ.
He had to leave two
is loyals to watch Hightower.
You're wellcome to find the flaws, that's the nature of the game. And remember, this is just a game.
Edited by finger, 22 December 2013 - 06:35 AM.