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Aegon at ToJ


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#1 finger

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 06:34 AM

First of all, I'll explain the method. I call it the Laocoonte method.

You find out some wreckage, and there are heads, pieces of limbs,... You guess it was a sculpture, and you want you know what it looked like. You might not even have all the pieces, but you still find it's worth the try.

Well, this is a story, not a sculpture, but the method holds. I try to build a story with details laid about in the series. Theses pieces must fit. The theory stands while it's not proven that:

* the pieces don't fit

* there's another piece not taken into account

* some of your own stuff is false

Eventually, GRRM will release the books but we can play the game in the meanwhile.

 

What we have (it can be elaborated)

Rhaegar mistrusted Aerys, he planned “something” about it

Aerys mistrusted anyone

Aerys used Elia and her children as hostages

Rhaegar's whereabuts were unkown to Jaime, and probably Aerys, but he was in touch with “someone” out there

Jon Connington was Rhaegar's best friend, together with Arthur Dayne

Hightower obeyed Aerys over any other consideration

Hightower behaviour is not proper to the Lord Commander od the Kings Guard, unless there's something more never stated in the books (btw, please tell me where it's written than Jon Snow was born at the Tower of Joy)

Arthur Dayne was an outstanding army leader

Robert Rebellion was a serious threat

Hightower, Dayne and Whent are left aside in the final battle.

 

What didn't happen

Hightower didn't escort Rhaegar back to KL, nor took care of Aerys

AD didn't help Rhaegar with the army

JC wasn't called back

Lyanna wasn't allowed to KL, or Rhaegar didn't trust to take her.

 

What we can easily guess

Rhaegar asked something in exchange when he came back. He'd haggle with Aerys for the price of his coming back through some intermediare.

There was something of huge value at ToJ to leave three KG, not only a pregnant second wife .

 

My own stuff

Rhaegar wanted Aegon out of Aerys reach. He required him to be handed out.

Aerys charged it to Hightower.

Rhaegar mistrusted Hightower's loyalty and ordered him to stay at ToJ to guard Aegon, as Aerys had ordered him. In fact, not to reveal ToJ.

He had to leave two is loyals to watch Hightower.

 

You're wellcome to find the flaws, that's the nature of the game. And remember, this is just a game.


Edited by finger, 22 December 2013 - 06:35 AM.


#2 theguyfromtheVale

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 06:52 AM

A few questions then:

 

How did Lyanna Stark die?

What happened to Aegon?

If Jon Snow is Aegon...

Why does Ned remember Aegon being dead?

Why does Jon look like a Stark?

If Aegon was smuggled to JC...

When did that happen, before or after Ned arrived at the ToJ?

If before, why didn't the KG come with him?

If after, why does Ned remember Aegon being dead?

Who is Jon Snow's mother?

Why does Varys tell another story to JC?

If Aegon died...

Who or what killed him? And why?

Who is Jon Snow's mother?

If none of the above...

Where is Aegon now?

Who is Jon Snow's mother?

Why didn't Jaime (or Pycelle) know of the switch? They were both around Aegon regularly.

 

A few more points to note:

Jon Connington's 'friendship' to Rhaegar was probably less close than C wanted, and less close than Rhaegar's friendship to Dayne

Why would retrieving the crown prince and possibly negotiating his return be lowly appointments? I'd rather see them as some of the most important tasks, only to be performed by someone Aerys could trust (and with his paranoia...)

Why does Hightower, at the ToJ, lead the discussion if Rhaegar wanted to have Arthur ad Whent watch over him? Why not have Arthur do most of the talking?



#3 Rhaenys_Targaryen

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 06:57 AM

I highly doubt that Rhaegar would have let Hightower guard Aegon if he didn't trust him, even if Whent ans Dayne were there as well.

Also, Hightower went out to find Rhaegar. We don't know how long it took him to find Rhaegar, but I guess we can assume that he didn't succeed immediately. Taking a babe with you on such a journey, while the child in question is about half a year old, give or take a month or two, during times of war, is extremely dangerous.

You suggest Hightower did not return to KL after leaving KL to find Rhaegar, and that he took Aegon for safekeeping because Rhaegar wanted it so. Yet then you write Rhaegar did not trust Hightower. Where is the evidence for that, btw?
If Rhaegar did not trust Hightower, Hightower would not have been tasked with bringing Aegon to the ToJ. Also, the timeline for it is off.

Edited by Rhaenys_Targaryen, 22 December 2013 - 06:57 AM.


#4 Mladen

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 07:04 AM

A few questions then:

 

How did Lyanna Stark die?

What happened to Aegon?

If Jon Snow is Aegon...

Why does Ned remember Aegon being dead?

Why does Jon look like a Stark?

If Aegon was smuggled to JC...

When did that happen, before or after Ned arrived at the ToJ?

If before, why didn't the KG come with him?

If after, why does Ned remember Aegon being dead?

Who is Jon Snow's mother?

Why does Varys tell another story to JC?

If Aegon died...

Who or what killed him? And why?

Who is Jon Snow's mother?

If none of the above...

Where is Aegon now?

Who is Jon Snow's mother?

Why didn't Jaime (or Pycelle) know of the switch? They were both around Aegon regularly.

 

A few more points to note:

Jon Connington's 'friendship' to Rhaegar was probably less close than C wanted, and less close than Rhaegar's friendship to Dayne

Why would retrieving the crown prince and possibly negotiating his return be lowly appointments? I'd rather see them as some of the most important tasks, only to be performed by someone Aerys could trust (and with his paranoia...)

Why does Hightower, at the ToJ, lead the discussion if Rhaegar wanted to have Arthur ad Whent watch over him? Why not have Arthur do most of the talking?

 

Damn'it, you ruined this fun game with those ridiculously logical question... I am enough of you people claiming that Aegon isn't Jon. I mean if the creator of this theory didn't and don't pay attention to GRRM himself, who do you think you are to make some point?



#5 finger

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 07:09 AM

 

Damn'it, you ruined this fun game with those ridiculously logical question... I am enough of you people claiming that Aegon isn't Jon. I mean if the creator of this theory didn't and don't pay attention to GRRM himself, who do you think you are to make some point?

Hey, wait a minute, who said Aegon=Jon? Where do you take it out from?

 

I'm taking for granted that Rhaegar was at ToJ with Dayne and Whent, and a pregnant Lyanna. I haven't find it neccesary to state it so boldly, but I've said it in the OP. So, what are you talking about?


Edited by finger, 22 December 2013 - 07:09 AM.


#6 theguyfromtheVale

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 07:18 AM

Oh, as for it being stated that Jon Snow was born at the ToJ, well, stating that blatantly would of course give the game away wrt R1L=J.

I also haven't brought my books to my parents, so I can't quote directly, but iirc, there was some part about Lyanna dying in a bed of blood, which is a common metaphor for childbirth in the books (and for nothing else, I'd hasten to add). So Lyanna gave birth in the ToJ, where would that baby be now if not Jon?

 

As for the Aegon=Jon thing, that was one question I asked, giving one of the possible options for what happened to Aegon at the ToJ (and a number of follow-up questions that address the problems with that theory).



#7 Ghost's Shadow

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 07:26 AM

 

He dreamt an old dream, of three knights in white cloaks, and a tower long fallen, and Lyanna in her bed of blood.



#8 Mladen

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 07:27 AM

Hey, wait a minute, who said Aegon=Jon? Where do you take it out from?

 

I'm taking for granted that Rhaegar was at ToJ with Dayne and Whent, and a pregnant Lyanna. I haven't find it neccesary to state it so boldly, but I've said it in the OP. So, what are you talking about?

 

The inevitability of your claims... In an hour or so, this will evolve at fully-fleshed theory about Jon being actually Aegon... But, rest assure, unlike this Vale guy, I will not ask the logical questions. I will go with the flow and support this thread...


Edited by Mladen, 22 December 2013 - 07:27 AM.


#9 Rhaenys_Targaryen

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 07:30 AM

Finger, I asked you questions about this theory in another thread, and I'll repeat my questions from above here, hoping for an answer from you.



I highly doubt that Rhaegar would have let Hightower guard Aegon if he didn't trust him, even if Whent ans Dayne were there as well.

Also, Hightower went out to find Rhaegar. We don't know how long it took him to find Rhaegar, but I guess we can assume that he didn't succeed immediately. Taking a babe with you on such a journey, while the child in question is about half a year old, give or take a month or two, during times of war, is extremely dangerous.

You suggest Hightower did not return to KL after leaving KL to find Rhaegar, and that he took Aegon for safekeeping because Rhaegar wanted it so. Yet then you write Rhaegar did not trust Hightower. Where is the evidence for that, btw?
If Rhaegar did not trust Hightower, Hightower would not have been tasked with bringing Aegon to the ToJ. Also, the timeline for it is off.



#10 finger

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 07:33 AM

Back to topic.

 

IMHO, Jon's Rhaegar's and Lyanna's son, born at ToJ, soon after his father's death at the Trident.

 

Enough with Jon for the present? Can we come back to Aegon? I see some details need more elaboration.

 

Ned never saw Aegon, nor should know about him.

Jaime was almost always with Aerys, or thinking of his sister or fighting in the yard. Can you imagine a sixteen old Jaime caring for babies?

Who said Pycelle didn't notice? I think Varys knew, as well. If Varys told them to shut up, they'd be quiet or roasted.

 

I'd stick to the facts until Rhaegar's come back to KL. What happened to Aaegon is another most interesting story that I'd love to discuss in due time. Let's say he was smuggled.

 

"Somehow" (and this will be a turn in the story), Rhaegar and Aerys haggled in the distance, and they eventually settled in sending Aegon to ToJ. For instance, Rhaegar couldn't get JC back, even though he's said to be a good soldier and captain.

Hightower was ordered to escort Aegon to the ToJ. Again, I can't imagine Hightower scolding Rhaegar and reminding him of his duties: "Bad Prince, you're dad'll tell you off." That's not the reason for Rhaegar to come back.

On the other hand, I do imagine Rhaegar telling Hightower: "King Aerys commanded you to guard my son, so do it." Under the same command forrom the king and the prince, Hightower had no option.

Rhaegar didn't mistrust Hightower openly, he just ordered him to foloow on with his mission. But he left two othr KG to "help" him.

 

It's my theory, but if you find that other theory is better, don't hesitate to tell.


Edited by finger, 22 December 2013 - 07:42 AM.


#11 theguyfromtheVale

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 07:41 AM

Ok, that one about Jon is good for me for now ;)

 

Still, I think any theory about Aegon not being at the Sack has to account for his whereabouts afterwards. Somewhere a silver-haired purple-eyed teenager of 18 years is bumbling around and we have never seen him? How did that happen?

 

So, again, why was Aegon not at the ToJ when Ned arrived? Why didn't at least one KG (Hightower?) leave with him, if Aegon left? Who else accompanied Aegon? And where is he now?

 

If Pycelle knew about the switch, why ddiddn't he tell Tywin, Kevan, or Robert? If he knew the dead baby wasn't Aegon even before the Sack, he could have made himself even more influential by, you know, making that information public. He was Tywin's toad to boot, so why not tell Tywin that there's a loose end hanging around, ready to disturb his plans?



#12 finger

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 07:44 AM

Sorry, I'm asked to leave. I'll be back. I promise...



#13 Ygrain

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 08:46 AM

Where is it stated that Dayne was a great army leader?

#14 Ghost's Shadow

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 09:21 AM

To add another crack to the pot... what if...

 

Elia + Arthur = Aegon

 

:leaving:

 

 

Link: http://asoiaf.wester...egar/?p=5249397

 

 

Perhaps Aegon was simply brought to his other daddy. ;)



#15 WeaselPie

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 10:01 AM

Ok, that one about Jon is good for me for now ;)

 

Still, I think any theory about Aegon not being at the Sack has to account for his whereabouts afterwards. Somewhere a silver-haired purple-eyed teenager of 18 years is bumbling around and we have never seen him? How did that happen?

 

So, again, why was Aegon not at the ToJ when Ned arrived? Why didn't at least one KG (Hightower?) leave with him, if Aegon left? Who else accompanied Aegon? And where is he now?

 

If Pycelle knew about the switch, why ddiddn't he tell Tywin, Kevan, or Robert? If he knew the dead baby wasn't Aegon even before the Sack, he could have made himself even more influential by, you know, making that information public. He was Tywin's toad to boot, so why not tell Tywin that there's a loose end hanging around, ready to disturb his plans?

Well I don't know but...some possibilities for the OP's theory would be:

 

Say Rhaegar arranged for Aegon, TPTWP, to be moved to the ToJ and to be protected by the Kingsguard there, along with the pregnant Lyanna.  Since OP wants to concentrate on Aegon, let's work with that one.

 

If Aegon ended up at the ToJ with a pregnant Lyanna, along with Gerold, there is another easy connection to be made.

 

Walys Flowers, bastard of Hightower, Maester of Winterfell, and presumably Lyanna's own Maester, may have been there. Luwin was not Maester of Winterfell until Cat arrived there with Robb (and we know Luwin birthed all her kids).

 

So, was Lyanna able to send for Walys to assist in her childbirth?  Did Gerold send for him?  Dunno.  But I would be pretty shocked that Rhaegar would allow Lyanna (a highborn Northern girl) to go through childbirth alone.  I think it's fairly logical others were at the tower, and having the girl's own Maester there is also logical. 

 

Did Gerold contact Walys to find out Lyanna's location, and thereby deduce Rhaegar's?  Is possible.

 

Adding Walys into the mix makes sense IMO.  Many possibilities if that was true.  Maybe Walys took off with the baby.

 

All just thinking out loud.  Yeah, I know it's a bit crackpot.



#16 Mladen

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 10:09 AM

Where is it stated that Dayne was a great army leader?

 

I think they refer to the JonCon's comments that even Arthur Dayne would find GC's camp satisfactory. Plus, it is not like he didn't have some accomplishments like battling with Kingswood Brotherhood .



#17 Ygrain

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 10:13 AM

 

I think they refer to the JonCon's comments that even Arthur Dayne would find GC's camp satisfactory. Plus, it is not like he didn't have some accomplishments like battling with Kingswood Brotherhood .

I'm not implying a total lack of military experience but I still do not see a basis for assessing his tactical/strategic skills and such.



#18 Mladen

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 10:16 AM

I'm not implying a total lack of military experience but I still do not see a basis for assessing his tactical/strategic skills and such.

 

I know, but he couldn't have been praised to that level just because of how good he was in some tourneys. I imagine that his dealings with Kingswood Brotherhood was something that established him as great knight. As for military leader, I am not sure... I also wouldn't be hasty in assessing it without more proofs.



#19 Rhaenys_Targaryen

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 10:36 AM

Well I don't know but...some possibilities for the OP's theory would be:

 

Say Rhaegar arranged for Aegon, TPTWP, to be moved to the ToJ and to be protected by the Kingsguard there, along with the pregnant Lyanna.  Since OP wants to concentrate on Aegon, let's work with that one.

 

If Aegon ended up at the ToJ with a pregnant Lyanna, along with Gerold, there is another easy connection to be made.

 

Walys Flowers, bastard of Hightower, Maester of Winterfell, and presumably Lyanna's own Maester, may have been there. Luwin was not Maester of Winterfell until Cat arrived there with Robb (and we know Luwin birthed all her kids).

 

So, was Lyanna able to send for Walys to assist in her childbirth?  Did Gerold send for him?  Dunno.  But I would be pretty shocked that Rhaegar would allow Lyanna (a highborn Northern girl) to go through childbirth alone.  I think it's fairly logical others were at the tower, and having the girl's own Maester there is also logical. 

 

Did Gerold contact Walys to find out Lyanna's location, and thereby deduce Rhaegar's?  Is possible.

 

Adding Walys into the mix makes sense IMO.  Many possibilities if that was true.  Maybe Walys took off with the baby.

 

All just thinking out loud.  Yeah, I know it's a bit crackpot.

 

But if Walys was brought to ToJ to assist Lyanna, how would that be explained or accomplished? The entire Riverlands was involved in the war, and Benjen was the Stark in Winterfell, who would have noticed if his maester suddenly went missing. There was war in the Riverlands, so how would this maester get to the ToJ without questions being asked that would point to Lyanna? That also rules out White Harbor?

 

I agree that it would be weird if there was only Gerold, Oswell, Arthur and Lyanna at the tower, and we know there was at least one more (Ned mentioned that they found him holding Lyanna's death body. They cannot include Gerold, Oswell or Arthur, who were already dead by then, nor can they include anyone other of Ned's companions than Howland Reed, who is one of the they mentioned by name. The other companions who had come with Ned were also dead by then). So there definitly was someone else in the Tower, and it would make the most sense if this unknown person was there to assist Lyanna with the birth. But Maester Walys... I feel that if he indeed went south to involve himself in the war even further, it would have been noticed, and Lady Dustin would have mentioned it when ranting on the maester.



#20 finger

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Posted 22 December 2013 - 10:54 AM

 

I think they refer to the JonCon's comments that even Arthur Dayne would find GC's camp satisfactory. Plus, it is not like he didn't have some accomplishments like battling with Kingswood Brotherhood .

Back again.

 

:thumbsup: Bingo!

There are some comments of both Ned and Jaime, who admired him as a warrior. Arthur Dayne's was Jaime's mirror. He spurred him, and he was a fine captain fighting the bandits.

But it's JC who praised him as a general. The key word is even.

 

He doesn't seem the guy you'd left behind when you're about to enter into battle, unless you have a very good reason.

And never forget that JC was also a good leader, and he wasn't called back.

 

Some people might find this OK, srry I don't.