Tycho Nestoris is Arya

[nekrohsis]

I first thought of this theory a few weeks ago when reading one of the many 'Jaquen is Syrio' threads. Those theories revolve a lot about both men being from Braavos, which I thought was silly. After all, if any two characters who've been to Braavos are the same character, then Arya could be Tycho Nestoris, right? But then I got to think about it. And I read back over a few chapters. And I found some interesting stuff.

There's three postulates making up this theory, each of which could be true independent of the others. The first is that Arya is Tycho Nestoris. The second is that Arya is the Hooded Man in Winterfell. The third is that the Faceless Men were behind Jon's assassination.

Section I: Arya is Tycho Nestoris

Tycho is actually introduced many chapters before Arya's last chapter. However, a close reading shows that Tycho left Braavos after Arya leaves.

In Arya's final chapter, she notes that the wind is cold. She walks past the canals, but doesn't mention anything special about them.

The air was clear and cold, and the wind had a nasty bite to it

--ADWD, Chapter 64 (The Ugly Little Girl)

However, Tycho Nestoris tells Jon the following.

"Winter is nigh upon is. The day I left Braavos, there was ice on the canals."

--ADWD, Chapter 44 (Jon IX)

Arya's final chapter makes no mention of ice on the canals. I'm fairly certain this means that Arya's final chapter is chronologically located before Tycho arrives at the wall. This leaves a gap of time between Arya being sent to Izembaro and Tycho's arrival. For all we know, Izembaro is related directly to the Iron Bank. The Kindly Man offer's her a 'pretty face', but we can't assume that Arya's keeping that face for any amount of time.

So Arya's whereabouts are unaccounted for at this point in Jon's storyline. Let's take a second look at Tycho's appearance. Suppose he's using mummer's tricks to disguise himself.

A tall gaunt stick of a man, his height accentuated by an outlandish three-tired hat of purple felt . . .

Half a foot taller than Jon, the Braavosi sported a beard as thin as a rope sprouting from his chin and reaching almost to his waist. His robes were a somber purple, trimmed with ermine. A high stiff collar framed his narrow face.

--ADWD, Chapter 44 (Jon IX)

Tycho's manner of dress is very flamboyant. The things people notice about him are huge purple hat, his long beard, and his purple robes. These are very eye-catching. Anyone can dress in bright purple or don a false beard. People are meant to remember these things. They might also be meant to distract from his physical appearance. Even Jon wouldn't expect to see his little sister wearing a beard and a giant hat (not to mention it's been years since he's last seen her). His narrow face is remarked upon. Arya also has a narrow face. While she isn't proven to be taller than Jon, she's described as growing taller, and she could easily wear lifts

What if Tycho is wearing a glamor? Here's something interesting. Tycho refuses to visit the top of the wall.

"No doubt I shall rue my caution upon my deathbed, but after a long day in the saddle, a warm room sounds preferable to me."

--ADWD, Chapter 44 (Jon IX)

This seems reasonable--it's been a long, cold ride through the North. Most people would want to warm up. But, as I'll point out later on, Tycho's unusually hardy and cold-resistant.

Why avoid the top of the Wall? Because it's a place of magic. Melisandre says that her magic is stronger at the Wall, but her glamours are different than the Faceless Men's faces.

"Wise men see through artifice, and glamors dissolve before sharp eyes, but the face you are about to don will be as true and solid as the face you were born with."

--ADWD, Chapter 64 (The Ugly Little Girl)

If Tycho Nestoris is a Faceless Man wearing a false face, he might fear the Wall will dissolve the magic holding on his false face.

Tycho came to the Wall to seek out Stannis. However, he willingly deviates from his mission to extend a loan to Jon. Jon suspects there's something off about the banker's willingness to loan the money.

Tycho Nestoris had left behind a copy of their agreement. Jon read it over thrice. That was simple, he reflected. Simpler than I dared hope. Simpler than it should have been.

--ADWD, Chapter 44 (Jon IX)

Many people talk about this loan as a 'plot gift'. The Watch has no collateral to be collected if they default (save Jon's life, which I'll discuss later). Jon also gets Tycho's three ships in the bargain, in return for escorts to Deepwood Motte. It's exceedingly generous. Anyone looking at this situation from a reasonable angle should notice it's a bad deal. However, if Tycho has a personal motive for wanting to help Jon, then this deal makes sense.

For a Braavosi, Tycho is very well suited to handle the Northern winter--even more so than Stannis and his army. Tycho manages to travel from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell to Stannis's army with only the help of a few Ironborn (who are not natural land travelers) and two men of the Night's Watch. When he arrives at Stannis's camp with Theon and Jeyne, his attitude is quite different from his earlier desire for a warm room.

Of all the strange things that might have come riding out of the night, the last one Asha Greyjoy would ever have expected was a Braavosi banker. It was too absurd. She had to laugh. "King Stannis has taken the watchtower for his seat. Ser Clayton will be pleased to show you to him, I'm sure."

"That would be most kind. Time is of the essence." The banker studied her with shrewd dark eyes. "You are the Lady Asha of House Greyjoy, unless I am mistaken."

--ADWD, Chapter 62 (The Sacrifice)

(Yes, his eyes are described as dark, but since it's the end of the day and growing dark, I would say this refers to a quality of his eyes, not the color, which is difficult enough to see in the day). Tycho no longer wants a warm room, wine, and food. He's all business. At the Wall, he'll eat and chat with Jon after they've made their deal, and Jon thinks well of him.

Once there, it would have been discourteous not to break bread with the banker, so Jon sent Satin off to fetch them food.

--ADWD, Chapter 44 (Jon IX)

Tycho Nestoris had impressed him as cultured and courteous

--ADWD, Chapter 44 (Jon IX)

However, his reaction to Stannis is quite different.

Stannis dipped a quill in the blood welling from his thumb and scratched his name across the piece of parchment. "You will depart today. Lord Bolton may be on us soon. I will not have you caught up in the fighting."
"That would be my preference as well." The Braavosi slipped the roll of parchment inside a wooden tube. "I hope to have the honor of calling on Your Grace again when you are seated on your Iron Throne."
"You hope to have your gold, you mean. Save your pleasantries. It is coin I need from Braavos, not empty courtesy. Tell the guard outside I have need of Justin Massey."
"It would be my pleasure. The Iron Bank is always glad to be of service." The banker bowed.
As he left, another entered; a knight.

Tycho has no desire to sit around and eat with Stannis. He's all business.

But one of the strongest pieces of evidence is the proximity of Tycho and the various 'Aryas' in the text. Tycho's first appearance comes right before Alys Karstark arrives at the Wall. Jon thinks,

She could return to Braavos with Tycho Nestoris. Perhaps the Iron Bank could help find some noble family to foster her.

--ADWD, Chapter 44 (Jon IX)

Tycho delivers the second false Arya to Asha. In the Theon chapter from TWOW, we see another link between the two.

The king was not amused. "I want you gone before midday, ser. Lord Bolton could be on us any moment, and it is imperative that the banker return to Braavos. You shall accompany him across the narrow sea."

"If there is to be a battle, my place is here with you."
"Your place is where I say it is. I have five hundred swords as good as you, or better, but you have a pleasing manner and a glib tongue, and those will be of more use to me at Braavos then here. The Iron Bank has opened its coffers to me. You will collect their coin and hire ships and sellswords. A company of good repute, if you can find one. The Golden Company would be my first choice, if they are not already under contract. Seek for them in the Disputed Lands, if need be. But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch. Archers as well, we need more bows."
Ser Justin's hair had fallen down across one eye. He pushed it back and said, "The captains of the free companies will join a lord more readily than a mere knight, Your Grace. I hold neither lands nor title, why should they sell their swords to me?"
"Go to them with both fists full of golden dragons," the king said, in an acid tone. "That should prove persuasive. Twenty thousand men should suffice. Do not return with fewer."
"Sire, might I speak freely?"
"So long as you speak quickly."
"Your Grace should go to Braavos with the banker."
"Is that your counsel? That I should flee?" The king's face darkened. "That was your counsel on the Blackwater as well, as I recall. When the battle turned against us, I let you and Horpe chivvy me back to Dragonstone like a whipped cur."
"The day was lost, Your Grace."
"Aye, that was what you said. 'The day is lost, sire. Fall back now, that you may fight again.' And now you would have me scamper off across the narrow sea... "
"... to raise an army, aye. As Bittersteel did after the Battle of the Redgrass Field, where Daemon Blackfyre fell."
"Do not prate at me of history, ser. Daemon Blackfyre was a rebel and usurper, Bittersteel a bastard. When he fled, he swore he would return to place a son of Daemon's upon the Iron Throne. He never did. Words are wind, and the wind that blows exiles across the narrow sea seldom blows them back. That boy Viserys Targaryen spoke of return as well. He slipped through my fingers at Dragonstone, only to spend his life wheedling after sellswords. 'The Beggar King,' they called him in the Free Cities. Well, I do not beg, nor will I flee again. I am Robert's heir, the rightful king of Westeros. My place is with my men. Yours is in Braavos. Go with the banker, and do as I have bid."
"As you command," Ser Justin said.
"It may be that we shall lose this battle," the king said grimly. "In Braavos you may hear that I am dead. It may even be true. You shall find my sellswords nonetheless."
The knight hesitated. "Your Grace, if you are dead — "
" — you will avenge my death, and seat my daughter on the Iron Throne. Or die in the attempt."
Ser Justin put one hand on his sword hilt. "On my honor as a knight, you have my word."
"Oh, and take the Stark girl with you. Deliver her to Lord Commander Snow on your way to Eastwatch." Stannis tapped the parchment that lay before him. "A true king pays his debts."

--TWOW, Theon Sample Chapter

Jeyne and Tycho are travelling to the Wall together. Wherever Tycho goes, he is accompanied by a fake Arya.

Section Two: Arya is the Hooded Man

If Arya is Tycho, who meets up with the Umbers outside Winterfell, the timing works out. Or if she isn't, we know from the timing of her last chapter enough time has passed to reach the North from Braavos.

Let's look at the popular Hooded Man=Septon Chayle theory, posted by Slayer of Lies.

“Farther on, he came upon a man striding in the opposite direction, a hooded cloak flapping behind him. When they found themselves face-to-face their eyes met briefly. The man put a hand on his dagger. “Theon Turncloak. Theon Kinslayer.”

“I’m not. I never … I was ironborn.”

“False is all you were. How is it you still breathe?”

“The gods are not done with me,” Theon answered, wondering if this could be the killer, the night walker who had stuffed Yellow Dick’s cock into his mouth and pushed Roger Ryswell’s groom off the battlements.

Oddly, he was not afraid. He pulled the glove from his left hand. “Lord Ramsay is not done with me.”

The man looked, and laughed. “I leave you to him, then.”

-- ADWD, Chapter 46 (A Ghost In Winterfell)

Slayer of Lies hypothesized that the Hooded Man was Septon Chayle in part because the Hooded Man recognized Theon, but did not know about his link to the Boltons, and seemed surprised Theon still lived. Therefore, the Hooded Man was someone who had known Theon when he was at Winterfell. However, Theon does not mention the Hooded Man by name. Therefore, I think it's someone who knew Theon from Winterfell, before he fell into Ramsey's hands, but someone who Theon does not recognize. Arya in disguise would fit better than Chayle--you'd think Theon would recognize a man he'd thrown down a well. Theon is not on Arya's kill list. Arya is dark enough to laugh when Theon reveals he is being tortured. Arya believes Theon killed her brothers, which is why she would call him a kinslayer (she sees their faces in THoBaW).

Also, let's look at the killings. Which ones could have been committed by a Faceless Man? Not Dead Just Broken assembled this list on the 'The Ghost of Winterfell is" thread.

1. A man sworn to House Ryswell, "fallen" from the walls.

2. Aenys Frey's squire, found naked, dead from exposure

3. A crossbowmen from House Flint (not clear which one), found dead from blunt force trauma attributed to being kicked by a horse, Theon thinks it's a club

4. Yellow Dick, found dead with his penis stuffed in his mouth

5. Little Walder Frey, found bloody and frozen in a snowbank

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/86746-the-ghost-of-winterfell-is/?p=5257694

If a Faceless Man pushed Balon off a bridge, he could push the Ryswell man off the walls. Aenys Frey's squire most likely died of hypothermia (the delusions caused by hypothermia cause people to take off their clothing, finding naked victims of exposure is not uncommon). I'm putting that down to natural causes. The crossbowman was kicked by a horse or clubbed. If it was a horse, a Faceless Man can enrage an animal using poisons. Yellow Dick's cause of death is not mentioned, but he wasn't stabbed, so he could have been killed by poison or any other method. The mutilation of his corpse could have taken place after his death.

"The dead were all strong men," said Roger Ryswell, "and none of them were stabbed."

--ADWD, Chapter 46 (A Ghost in Winterfell)

Little Walder was most likely killed by Big Walder. A Faceless Man could have done the rest.

Furthermore, the title of the chapter, A Ghost in Winterfell, fits very nicely with The Ghost of Harrenhall.

Why would Arya be indiscriminately killing northern men? She kills a Bolton guard in ACOK. Arya knows not all northmen are good. Furthermore, the ones inside Winterfell have allied themselves with the Boltons, who betrayed Robb.

Section Three: The Faceless Men arranged Jon's assassination

When Jon announces his intent to attack the Boltons, it's clear he's leaving the Watch, or at least relinquishing his duties. Not only is he breaking his oath to the Watch . . . he's breaking his contract with the Iron Bank.

When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones.

--ADWD, Chapter 44 (Jon IX)

Naturally, his contract is the last think Jon will think of after reading the Pink Letter. But he's still announcing his intent to break off his loan. This quote suggests to many people that the Faceless Men are linked to the Iron Bank. Of course they might try to assassinate a leader who takes a large loan and leaves his post. Tycho did not come alone--he brought three ships with him. It's possible there were other Faceless Men among the crew. Tycho is travelling across the north without any mentioned Braavosi companions (odd, since he required an escort of three ships to cross the Narrow Sea. Surely a few guards could be spared from the Hardholme mission, unless Tycho has unknown skills to defend himself with). If there were more Faceless Men among the crew, it would be easy for them to slip out and hide in the chaos at Castle Black. Wildlings, Queen's Men, and crows. No one would notice them.

How could they kill Jon? Easy. The Basilisk Blood poison can turn animals against their masters--why couldn't it drive men into a killing rage. Or the Faceless Men could have killed Bowen Marsh upon arriving and taken his face. Whether or not my postulate about Tycho being Arya is true, Tycho wasn't at the Wall when the stabbing occurred. Jon's death was a result of his oathbreaking, yes--but it was his oath to the Iron Bank, not to the Watch, that lead to his death.

Final thoughts

This all seems very crackpot. Even I'm not sure how much of this I actually believe. What's the purpose of Jon's long-awaited reunion with Arya taking place without his knowledge? How could he fail to recognize his own sister? But Jon can't recognize Arya any more--at least, not the Arya we know.

Wherever he might send her, though, Arya would need silver to support her, a roof above her head, someone to protect her. She was only a child.

--ADWD, Chapter 44 (Jon IX)

We readers know that Jon's vision of Arya is flawed. He clings to his memory of her as a last vestige of innocence--but Arya is anything but innocent. There's the irony of this theory--Jon simply can't recognize his sister any more, whether he's come face to face with her already or not.

[Hutch]

I'm going to go with doubtful on all accounts, but at least you're thinking outside the box. :)

[ARYa_Nym]

We don't know if one can glamor other genders which is why I've never been on board with the Arya going to the Wall as Dareon theory. How can a girl be given a man's voice? With Mance and Rattleshirt Jon could tell something was off and they are at least the same gender and likely near the same height. A girl changing herself to a man's build would really look off.

[nekrohsis]

We don't know if one can glamor other genders which is why I've never been on board with the Arya going to the Wall as Dareon theory. How can a girl be given a man's voice? With Mance and Rattleshirt Jon could tell something was off and they are at least the same gender and likely near the same height. A girl changing herself to a man's build would really look off.

As I pointed out, the Faceless Men use mummer's tricks as well as magic to hide themselves. Using a low voice is certainly possible. And Tycho and Arya are both described as skinny. Arya's been mistaken for a boy before, and she doesn't yet have a woman's figure. Even if she did, she could easily hide it under Tycho's long purple robes. Furthermore, the FM don't use glamors, as I quoted above. Their magic is different.

[Northernmonkey]

I think the least likely bit is that the Iron Bank assassinated Jon. The loan that Jon took out from Tycho will have been done in the name of the Night's Watch, not in Jon's name, so why would they care if he broke his vows or not?

[Northernmonkey]

And if Tycho is half a foot taller than Jon, how can he be Arya?

[Ahura Mazda]

and which sorcery can make arya half a foot taller than Jon?

[nekrohsis]

I think the least likely bit is that the Iron Bank assassinated Jon. The loan that Jon took out from Tycho will have been done in the name of the Night's Watch, not in Jon's name, so why would they care if he broke his vows or not?

Really? I think this is the most likely part. Yes, the loan was in the name of the Watch, just as Robert's were in the name of the crown. The LC has to pay the Watch's debt. If the LC leaves, the debt isn't paid, so it's in the Iron Bank's interest to replace him with an LC who will stay at the Wall to gather income to repay the debt.

[WeirwoodTreeHugger]

This is really farfetched and probably isn't true. I like it though. Good read.

In AGOT Syrio tells Arya a story about the Sealord. He had a big fat cat and pretended it was an exotic beast from a foreign land so that's what everyone thought it was. Syrio looked with his eyes instead of seeing what he wanted to. In theory, with FM skills a girl could pose as a man if everyone wanted to see her as one.

[ARYa_Nym]

As I pointed out, the Faceless Men use mummer's tricks as well as magic to hide themselves. Using a low voice is certainly possible. And Tycho and Arya are both described as skinny. Arya's been mistaken for a boy before, and she doesn't yet have a woman's figure. Even if she did, she could easily hide it under Tycho's long purple robes. Furthermore, the FM don't use glamors, as I quoted above. Their magic is different.

Mummer's tricks can do but so much. Arya has been mistaken for a boy but a boy and a man are two different things. Especially Tycho since he's a giant.

The FM use glamors as well.

“Mummers change their faces with (1) artifice . . . and sorcerers use (2) glamors, weaving light and shadow and desire to make illusions that trick the eye. These arts you shall learn, but what we do goes deeper. Wise men can see through artifice, and glamors dissolve before sharp eyes, (3) but the face you are to don will be as true and solid as that face you were born with” (842-843).

Their magic is more accurate but still we don't know if it's to this degree.

[nekrohsis]

As for Tycho's height, we don't know exactly how tall Jon or Arya is. All we know is that Arya's been growing. It's possible to wear lifts or stilts to give one extra height, and it's certainly possible she's grown taller or almost as tall.

[Thendel]

1) The timeline doesn't fit at all: Count the days as they pass in the chapters if you want to argue, but it's fairly certain that Arya's last chapter in Dance takes place chronogically after any other chapter in the book, hence she cannot have been present at any of the events.

2) FM aren't supposed to kill people they know. I'd argue that Arya knows Jon.

[Northernmonkey]

As for Tycho's height, we don't know exactly how tall Jon or Arya is. All we know is that Arya's been growing. It's possible to wear lifts or stilts to give one extra height, and it's certainly possible she's grown taller or almost as tall.

But realistically Arya isn't going to be half a foot taller than Jon. And Tycho isn't going to be walking through the snow to Winterfell while wearing stilts. I think the height thing conclusively disproves this theory.

[ARYa_Nym]

Arya growing taller can put her at a normal height for her age. She was always described as petite. Jon is about average height or shorter. Tycho is really big though. I wouldn't be surprised if he was in Robert Baratheon's vicinity.

[Mychel_Redfort]

I found the title of the thread ridiculous. But after reading the OP, I'm not so sure, you make some interesting points. My main reproach would be : if Arya is sent to be trained by Izembaro during her first apprenticeship, why would she be sent in mission so early in her training ? And why send such a novice FM for a mission of this importance ?

[nekrohsis]

1) The timeline doesn't fit at all: Count the days as they pass in the chapters if you want to argue, but it's fairly certain that Arya's last chapter in Dance takes place chronogically after any other chapter in the book, hence she cannot have been present at any of the events.

2) FM aren't supposed to kill people they know. I'd argue that Arya knows Jon.

As I point out, the timeline does fit. Tycho says the canals had frozen over when he left. Arya does not notice this, even though she crosses many of the canals in her last chapter. Also, I pointed out that Tycho was not present at the Wall when Jon was stabbed.

[ARYa_Nym]

Arya also didn't officially train with the mummers yet. GRRM said that the King of Mummers had to be pushed back so I'm guessing that's who Izembaro is.

[Northernmonkey]

Another thing: Wouldn't it be out of character for GRRM to have a POV character do so much without showing it to the reader? We would have missed out on Arya taking a new identity, learning the inner workings of the Iron Bank of Braavos, travelling over to Westeros and then making her way to Winterfell.

[jet199]

I thought Tycho could be a FM because of Patchface saying "under the sea no one wears hats" and Tycho's hat looks like three hats one on to of the other. I don't think he could be Arya though. Maybe he is the starved man Arya sees.

[nekrohsis]

Another thing: Wouldn't it be out of character for GRRM to have a POV character do so much without showing it to the reader? We would have missed out on Arya taking a new identity, learning the inner workings of the Iron Bank of Braavos, travelling over to Westeros and then making her way to Winterfell.

Well, we could still get them in Winds.