A black crow and a pink letter

[Ninerings]

I have not read through everything, nor do I have the time this second to provide exact quotes, but after some of the language I read in the Theon WOW chapter,

and seeing "Theon's" smug attitude despite his situation, I have many reasons to believe that Theon sent that letter to Jon.

[bemused]

By the Old Gods not the New

A few points in response to your last couple of posts ( and more stuff in general)

You said.. " yet Jon still thinks Ramsay is the author." ..That may or may not not be entirely true . I think all we can be sure of is that Jon thinks "there is truth in there" ( not necessarily that it's all true, m-m-m-maybe including the signature ) I'm sure at least that Jon believes Ramsay is coming after his bride and his Reek. If Jon believed Ramsay was at Winterfell, he wouldn't be thinking ... "If she could see a raven in a storm, she can find Ramsay Snow for me."

BTW.. Is the fact that Jon thinks of him as Ramsay Snow a hint to us that he may be another reason that Mel keeps seeing snow in her visions ?... (Jon Snow is important - in ways she doesn't fully realise ... it's snowing like mad - in a way that may not be natural .. and there is approaching danger in Ramsay Snow .. Also, since snow and Snow are hiding Stannis in her visions.. is Ramsay's [ Snow's] signature hiding Stannis' [original] authorship of the letter ? )

In regard to a piece of skin , you said.. " Considering that no such flap of skin is mentioned in Jon's PoV it's possible that this is just bluster on Ramsay's part meant specifically for the Iron Born/Greyjoys, who as far as we know are the only recipients of a piece of skin." .. but I think Ramsay truly does like to send them when he can. Remember , he sent one to Roose in ASoS, which Roose passed on to Robb and Catelyn..

Roose Bolton removed a ragged strip of leather from the pouch at his belt. “My son sent this with his letter.”

Ser Wendel turned his fat face away. Robin Flint and Smalljon Umber exchanged a look, and the Greatjon snorted like a bull. “Is that... skin?” said Robb.

“The skin from the little finger of Theon Greyjoy’s left hand. My son is cruel, I confess it. And yet... what is a little skin, against the lives of two young princes? You were their mother, my lady. May I offer you this... small token of revenge?”

Part of Catelyn wanted to clutch the grisly trophy to her heart, but she made herself resist. “Put it away. Please.”

I think Roose would have taken Ramsay's word for it that he had Theon and was flaying him bit by bit , so either Ramsay just took pleasure in sending it, or possibly , Roose requested it.. but I think the former is more likely.

All of the things Rooseman has pointed out (and more) would seem to make a good case for Mance, but GRRM has purposely constucted the letter so that a case can be made for multiple characters ( even Manderly , as you point out). .. Stannis would be familiar with the term "black crow" ( having met a number of wildlings) but would have no reason to use it... Ramsay ( if he knew it ) would have no reason to use it. ... But, the conspirators (including Thorne) would know the term and just might use it , in the hope that it would encourage a negative response to Jon among the wildlings - in exactly the same way that Thorne started out using "Lord Snow", and his later frequent use of "bastard" .. It's a typical propaganda technique that we see Thorne use all the time to create negative feelings if possible and to inflame such feelings that already exist.

Mance uses "red witch" , but so does Manderly ( as you noted) - before leaving White Harbour , when he's unlikely to have come into personal contact with Mance.

"Tell his red whore" , I think is unlikely to come from Stannis or Mance . If either of them are writing incognito, they were already using red witch and it's probable neither one would want to have been even more offensive to Mel when the truth of the letter came out. Stannis in particular would not have wanted to feed the gossip about Mel and himself... ( and that specific bit of contempt really serves no purpose in swaying Jon ).... Ramsay would use it ,I suppose, but unless I'm mistaken, we never do see him level the "whore" insult anywhere else .. not in his nasty reply to Lady Hornwood , not against Asha , not against Roose's "fat pig wife", or even in his threatening rant against Lady Dustin.

But we do know a character who is very catholic in his mud-slinging ...

“I suppose it was also the Halfhand who commanded you to fuck this unwashed whore?” Ser Alliser asked with a smirk. .. and this , to me, has a similar tone.

You also said.. If the letter was written in blood or both blood and ink, it likely would have been noted.

...I can't agree with this. I think it's deliberately been left unclear..

1) Asha's letter - written in blood . We know this, Jon doesn't.

2) Jon's first letter from Ramsay - signed in blood ; the rest - ambiguous ( breakdown in my earlier post ) Jon notes only the signature in detail.

3) Pink Letter - apparently written in ink , to judge by Tormund's response ( yes, I think he knows ink and no doubt , dried blood when he sees them ) Jon takes no note of the handwriting or the medium that is shared with the reader.

But ..in between 2 and 3 Jon receives his letter from Stannis . I'll call it 2a). - This is where Jon notes that the letter was written in part by the Deepwood Motte maester and in part by Stannis... Why does GRRM have Jon take note in such detail, this one specific letter, arriving as it does, between the two letters that are both open to question and most frequently compared? How Stannis' letter was written adds nothing of import to Stannis' news, or plays any part in Jon's decisions... It's possible that it's there simply to remind us that more than one person can contribute to the same letter ( obviously or not , legitimately , or not).

I think there are parallels to be made in Kevan's epilogue...but I'm betting that the lesson will be that similar plans laid by different characters can have very different results..

JuliaH...

You said.. Mance's motivation is the most obscure... Your suggestion is that the letter is a coded warning that either Ramsay or Bolton is coming to CB made indecipherable by the conspirators who altered it for their own purposes – is my interpretation correct?

.. Not quite.. I think Stannis and Mance's motivations in sending the letter would be very similar..That either one would have to masquerade as Ramsay would mean that Roose still held WF at the time it was written.( If Mance wrote it , word would have been received from the battlefield of Stannis' death) ... Neither one would have hope of relief from Jon , since he couldn't get ther quickly , and they wouldn't know he has anywhere near the number of men he has..and even if they did know, 1000 men would probably not be enough... Neither one would really want Jon to leave the wall unless there was someone equally as trustworthy to take command. There isn't , that they know of.... Neither one would want Jon to drag their near and dear to WF unless they had it secured, first. If they had it secured , they could write as themselves...

Both would want to tell Jon - primarily, that "Arya" and Reek were on their way to the Wall and that Ramsay was on his way after them and would be prepared to attack CB to get them. ...The news about Stannis and Mance is important, but either partly, or totally false. ( if Stannis wrote it ,he intends to fake his death and assumes, from Theon's report, that Mance would have been captured)

I don't think the main message was rendered indecipherable by the conspirators... I think the signs are that Jon understands those primary points completely and hopes to scoop up "Arya" and Reek and ambush Ramsay on his way to CB... And I think the conspirators have some blind spots stemming from their inability to see the wildlings as anything but stupid savages and from their refusal to try to understand wildling society.. And of course, stemming from their failure to give Jon credit for his tactical abilities..( or anything, for that matter)

You said... If Bowen Marsh wants to make Jon go south or at least announce his intention to go south, it means Marsh's motivation goes way beyond their differences concerning the management of affairs on the Wall. In this case, he may be consciously willing to sacrifice the Night's Watch to his purpose – the aftermath of the assassination (large-scale bloodshed) may well be the end of the Watch.

Yeah, maybe... but he might just not be aware of the potential consequences. I mean, we know that he's convinced that the Lannister faction in KL will prevail and he doesn't want to be on the wrong side.He may have some unrevealed personal connection to that faction ,as well. We don't know.. but I keep coming back to the unknown identity of the "high ground" uncle that he appears to venerate so highly; if he was a maternal uncle , Bowen could be connected to any of the southron houses . And I continue to wonder about the first letter that KL recieved from Bowen as castellan - mentioned by Pycelle to Tywin. ( Did he send it to the King, the Hand , Pycelle personally ,or to TPTB through some personal intermediary ? He could have written it himself and had Clydas send it without Aemon's knowledge...it would be underhanded , but within his authority as castellan. Clydas would have no say.)

We know he received the Tywin letter re: Slynt ... but not if the Cersei/ Qyburn letter ( or a possible Swyft letter) was ever sent...etc.,etc... And unless he's been lying about it, we know he's been in denial about the wildling ability to scale the wall and he thinks sealing the gates would be enough to keep the NW safe. He may care , but not be bright enough, tactically minded enough, or open minded enough to realise the full danger in his actions.

Thorne is the one who I think would be willing to sacrifice the NW to achieve his aim.No question. I think his actions and even what little he says bears this out.. "...I have squandered a third of my life trying to teach the rudiments of swordplay to churls, muttonheads, and knaves..." .. Squandered, yet not only could he have trained them better , he undermined even the "rudiments" (only) he taught them , by purposely sowing the seeds of division among them. His statement is as much an admission as a complaint.

Thorne is intelligent enough to realise the probable consequences of the attack and I think he might well be willing to sacrifice the watch ..and would certainly be willing to sacrifice his long-time sympathiser Bowen.

Sorry if this next goes OT ( it's insisting to come out now ). I've long felt that Thorne's hatred of Jon is over the top. It's just not sensible that he could be driven to that level of vehement loathing by a boy 1/3 his age.. and it seemed to spill over from Jon onto other Starks, or what seemed more likely, Thorne focused a general hatred of Starks on the Stark within his reach. He seemed to have more against Starks than Lannisters , which was odd, since Tywin sent him to the Wall. The only thing that occurs to me ( without more information) , as I'm sure it must have occured to others, is this :

If he was a defender on the walls of King's Landing during RR , in what capacity ? Might he have been in Aerys' retinue at Harrenhall ? Might he have formed the opinion that Lyanna was deliberately enticing Rhaegar ? Is SHE the Stark that he really blames the most for his own misfortunes ?

I've seen many people theorise that Thorne is just the tough drill sargeant who'll come around in the end , especially ( since he was a Targ. loyalist ) if R+L=J is revealed. I wouldn't be in a hurry to put money on it.

Anyway, I'll just hold it there, though there's more I could say...

I don't want to see Clydas as a conspirator either, but I find his fear and distress when delivering the pink letter pretty abnormal.. I'm hoping that he'll turn out to be no more than a very unwilling , very minor participant... a victim, himself.

To come back to Mance,

I've been intending to piece together some of my thoughts about Mance for some time (among a number of other topics) but it's still at the note-making and arranging stage.

Up to this point, I think I fancy him as Qorgyl's son. ( e.g. Mance points out three red patches on his cloak to Jon. The Qorgyl arms are three black scorpions on red. Qorgyl would, naturally, have Dornish attitudes to paramours and fathering bastards .) I think there are signs that Mance was being groomed to lead , but may have been assigned to the Shadow Tower to disguise any signs of closeness to Qorgyll ( being the LC's steward is not the only path to leaderhip ) ..but that's a bit beside the point , here... I'd best get on with it.