How did Varys know Gregor would have beaten Aegon to an unrecognizable pulp ?

[Lord Varys]

Who? Varys? Not very likely. He would have known about the wildfire, yes, but that in itself would have meant that he would have made preparations to evade the fires. And he could have used that point to convince Elia to give his child to her. It would be better to use the chance to save one child than to allow both of them to die for sure...

[sleath56]

Who? Varys? Not very likely. He would have known about the wildfire, yes, but that in itself would have meant that he would have made preparations to evade the fires. And he could have used that point to convince Elia to give his child to her. It would be better to use the chance to save one child than to allow both of them to die for sure...

Sorry for the confusion, but are you quoting my response here, or is this a unrelated comment?

[Kennedy the Keen]

Gregor did kill the baby infront of Ellia, then raped her. He probably tried to do something gruesome to the baby because he is just a cruel person. He is also known for smashing in faces, see Oberon.

I wonder if Elia said anything to Gregor about it not being her baby. It tough to find a baby with platinum eyebrows and purple eyes. Yet it is know that not all Targs had Targ features, some had a Dornish look, see Bealor Breakspear.

[Cubarey]

"I don't see any mother giving up a child of hers in a type of swap. Varys could throw all the logic he wants at her but I don't see that doing anything, people are emotional and mothers are especially emotional about their children, if there's enough danger to get Aegon away I don't see any way she doesn't have both her kids brought away with a close family member. "

First you are aware that this is the type of thing that occured in the Holocaust several times. Mothers giving their children a chance to live (or one of them) is neither that far fetched but chronicled in history.

Second, the spiriting of the baby heir to safety is almost cliche in fantasy; i.e. Lan in the Wheel of Time for one.( Not sure how this cuts but its a plausible plot ploy). Do I believe Varys actually did it, hard to tell but I would not put it past his abilities to engineer such a plot.

[The Dragon King]

"I don't see any mother giving up a child of hers in a type of swap. Varys could throw all the logic he wants at her but I don't see that doing anything, people are emotional and mothers are especially emotional about their children, if there's enough danger to get Aegon away I don't see any way she doesn't have both her kids brought away with a close family member. "

First you are aware that this is the type of thing that occured in the Holocaust several times. Mothers giving their children a chance to live (or one of them) is neither that far fetched but chronicled in history.

Second, the spiriting of the baby heir to safety is almost cliche in fantasy; i.e. Lan in the Wheel of Time for one.( Not sure how this cuts but its a plausible plot ploy). Do I believe Varys actually did it, hard to tell but I would not put it past his abilities to engineer such a plot.

Yes, that's happened to people who have seen the alternative and also had just about every ounce of hope destroyed in front of them, I don't see the same situation with a princess who has, well, lived like a princess up until that point.

[Chatty Duelist]

1. He didn't need for him to be unrecognizable. He simply needed the heir. Clegane's psychotic tendencies conviently tied the loose end.

2. He was counting on the Wildfire plot that Aerys was cooking up (excuse the pun).

[Fool of a Book]

"I don't see any mother giving up a child of hers in a type of swap. Varys could throw all the logic he wants at her but I don't see that doing anything, people are emotional and mothers are especially emotional about their children, if there's enough danger to get Aegon away I don't see any way she doesn't have both her kids brought away with a close family member. "

First you are aware that this is the type of thing that occured in the Holocaust several times. Mothers giving their children a chance to live (or one of them) is neither that far fetched but chronicled in history.

Second, the spiriting of the baby heir to safety is almost cliche in fantasy; i.e. Lan in the Wheel of Time for one.( Not sure how this cuts but its a plausible plot ploy). Do I believe Varys actually did it, hard to tell but I would not put it past his abilities to engineer such a plot.

Not sure who said original quote you include here , but yes we have examples in real history as well as in ASOIAF, several times.

However I fully expect a twist from GRRM.

One possibility is that Varys has the wrong child, and isn't even aware of it. We already have that as a precedent with Gilly's baby.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Oops, I forgot to mention that she was also older. She was 4-6 at the time, and had grown distinctive features. Swapping her would compromise Aegon's safety as more people know what she exactly looks like and leaving her adds credibility for Aegon's double as if Rhaenys was real, no one would be inclined to think hard if or if not the baby fAegon (see what I did there?) was or was not the real prince.

Rhaenys was three years old when she died (confirmed by the official app).

I agree with the conclusion you're making though. Rhaenys was several years older than Aegon, it would have been incredibly difficult to find a convincable look-a-like for Rhaenys.

[Reek Da Villain]

Hmmm maaaaybe just maaaaybe, the intention was similar to what Ramsay and Theon did when they couldn't find Bran and Rickon. I always found it odd that Rhaegar would knight Gregor Clegane, at a time when Aerys did not trust Tywin, only to have Gregor savagely murder his son a year later.

[Fool of a Book]

Hmmm maaaaybe just maaaaybe, the intention was similar to what Ramsay and Theon did when they couldn't find Bran and Rickon. I always found it odd that Rhaegar would knight Gregor Clegane, at a time when Aerys did not trust Tywin, only to have Gregor savagely murder his son a year later.

This is a great catch.

[Cubarey]

"Yes, that's happened to people who have seen the alternative and also had just about every ounce of hope destroyed in front of them, I don't see the same situation with a princess who has, well, lived like a princess up until that point. "

A Princess who's husband abducted another woman. A Princess who has been under the protection of a mad King who thinks fire is his champion. A Princess who married for political considerations and whose family has shown itself over the years at the Game of Thrones. And exactly what hope did she have remaining? Tywen who believed his own daughter should had married the Prince and any rationale person would have to question his motives for arriving at the Gates of the City?

[Cubarey]

" I always found it odd that Rhaegar would knight Gregor Clegane, at a time when Aerys did not trust Tywin, only to have Gregor savagely murder his son a year later."

Rhaeger new his father was mad, Rhaegar may not have trusted Tywin overmuch but he had no reason to be particularly mistrustful of him. Thinking that anyone would trust Clegane with anything besides killing someone would be a bit much.