Heresy 92 and nae deid yet

[Black Crow]

Welcome to Heresy 92, the latest edition of the very fast moving thread that looks behind the struggle for the Iron Throne to try and work out what’s really going in the over-arching Song of Ice and Fire.

And welcome too to the second part of Mace Cooterian’s Centennial Seven project aimed at defining the seven major heresies and bringing together the current thinking and arguments surrounding them.

Speaking for myself, for Mace, and for the other leaders of the project we’ve been immensely pleased at the enthusiasm with which its been greeted, at the quality of the contributions following on from Capon Breath’s splendid OP; and above all the positive attitude displayed by all. And it would also be remiss not to greet all the new faces and former lurkers inspired by it to come in out of the cold.

What makes Heresy so different and more vibrant and exciting than other threads is that while the theories discussed here have evolved and are often fiercely debated, in general we take a holistic approach. We’ve just covered the Wall and in this instalment will be looking at the Timelines, but they are not to be considered in isolation. Discussion of the Timelines obviously impacts very closely on the Wall and as the Centennial Seven project goes on the way that all of the themes are inextricably intertwined will itself become more apparent.

All in all, we can’t claim to know as much as we’d like to, far less definitively predict how this is all going to turn out, but I do think we can fairly claim that the ongoing discussion on these pages takes us far deeper into the story and into a far better understanding of the Song of Ice and Fire.

In the meantime if you’re already actively involved in the Heresy business the thread needs no further introduction. Here’s a link to Wolfmaid's essential guide to Heresy: http://asoiaf.wester...uide-to-heresy/, which provides annotated links to all the previous editions of Heresy and will house the archives created by the Centennial Seven project. Above all please don’t be intimidated by the size and scope of Heresy. We’re very good at talking in circles and we don’t mind going over old ground again, especially with a fresh pair of eyes, so just ask.

Otherwise, all that we do ask of you as ever is that you observe the house rules that the debate be conducted by reference to the text, with respect for the ideas of others, and above all great good humour.

[Black Crow]

And so without further ado, here’s Mace on the Timelines

Timelines

The direction I took on the timelines was to focus more on the sequencing of events rather than trying to pin them down with exact dates; especially the oldest known events occurring between 8,000 and 10,000 years ago). After all, according to our beloved Sam the oldest historic recounts in Westeros were only written down after the arrival of Andals by septons thousands of years after the fact.

The main focus of this OP is to focus on the events that comprise what is commonly referred to as The Age of Heroes, the period occurring between the signing of the Pact by the FM and the COTF, and prior to the arrival of the Andals. When we parse through this period there are several items that bear further scrutiny:

1. When was the Wall built?
   
2. When did the Long Night occur?
   
3. When did the Night’s King exist?
   
4. At what point and why did Moat Cailin become dilapidated
   

To start with canon text, I prefer the introduction to The Sworn Sword from the D&E series novellas, which paraphrasing:

"The children of the forest were the first known inhabitants of Westeros, during the Dawn of Days, who carved strange faces in the bone-white weirwood trees. Then came the First Men, who crossed a land ridge from the larger continent to the east with their bronze swords and horses and warred against the children for centuries before finally making peace with the older race and adopting their nameless, ancient gods. The Compact marked the beginning of the Age of Heroes, when the First Men and the children shared Westeros, and a hundred petty kingdoms rose and fell.

Other invaders came in turn. The Andals crossed the narrow sea in ships, and with iron and fire they swept across the kingdoms of the First Men, and drove the children from their forests, putting many of the weirwoods to the ax. They brought their own faith, worshiping a god with seven aspects whose symbol was a seven-pointed star. The children of the forest dwindled and disappeared, while the First Men intermarried with their conquerors.

The Rhoynar arrived some thousands of years after the Andals, and came not as invaders but as refugees."

This introduction follows in line, albeit abridged, with the history lesson from Maester Luwin in AGOT. What are glaring omissions in both introductions is that there is no mention of The Others, The Wall or the Night's King. For these items you have to go to Old Nan:

"There came a night that lasted a generation, and kings shivered and died in their castles........In that darkness, the Others came for the first time. They swept over holdfasts and cities and kingdoms, felled heroes and armies by the score, riding their pale dead horses and leading hosts of the slain. Now these were the days before the Andals came, and long before the women fled across the narrow sea from the cities of the Rhoyne, and the hundred kingdoms of the First Men, who had taken these lands from the children of the forest. So as cold and death filled the earth, the last hero determined to seek out the children..."

The generally accepted view on this period is that the long night came and with it come the White Walkers for the first time. The last hero seeks out the children; the White Walkers are defeated during the Battle of the Dawn and are sent back to wince they came; the Wall is built and the Nights Watch is formed to stand guard. Not long after the wall is built, the Nights King reign begins and he is ultimately defeated. Several thousand years later the Andals begin their assault on Westeros. All of these seemingly occurring between 10,000 and 6,000 years before Aegon.

The Wall & the Night’s King

The first issue is that of the Nights Watch, which largely follows the New Gods rather than the Old and swears an oath based on prayers to R'hllor. Are we to believe that the Nights Watch was created to guard the wall and swear an oath based on a religion that did not come to Westeros until hundreds, possible thousands of years after the fact? So either the oath was modified over time or the Nights Watch occurred much later than what is commonly thought.

One possible solution explored by Heresy is the business of the Nights King. If the NK followed the Long Night as is generally thought, it makes little sense and tends to be an isolated story with no point other than establishing a female Other. If however, we move the Nights King story forward in time it helps to solve two issues: it provides an explanation for the peace with the FM and the Andals, along with the expulsion of the Old Races - and also an explanation for why the Nights Watch seems to be living on an invented history. We will come back to this thought.

The Others and the Long Night

Is this the proverbial “chicken versus the egg” scenario? Did the Other’s come first bringing the Long Night; or did the Long Night start and the Other’s followed? If we go by Old Nan’s wording it may be more appropriate to say the Long Night came and then the Cold came after it, followed by the Other’s. Either way, conventional though and generally accepted by Heresy is that the Long Night came followed by the Other’s, who once after being defeated the Wall is raised.

Moat Cailin

A second issue that has caused some head scratching in Heresy is the question on why the forces at Moat Cailin were abandoned for so long. From the text we know that Moat Cailin was built some 8,000 to 10,000 years ago by the FM to establish a stronghold for the North and that it was the sight of the infamous attempt by the COTF to shatter the neck to stop the advancing Andals.

Early Heresies focused on collaboration between the COTF and the Marsh King to bring down the second Hammer of the Waters on the neck in order to stop the Andal momentum. King Ricard Stark took exception and made an alliance (possibly a pact) with the Andals. Stark attacked the Marsh King from the North, leaving the South exposed for the Andals; thus effectively stopping the COTF and the Marsh King form shattering the continent. With this defeat, the COTF were no longer welcome in the North and fled beyond the Wall.

Heresy has also considered that by opening the way to the North via Moat Cailin, the Andals then assisted the Stark in Winterfell in overthrowing his brother, the Night’s King. Once defeated the Nights Watch is effectively created and the sworn oath is created with influence from the Andals.

999 Lord Commanders

One last bit of text before we summarize the timeline and again we turn to Samwell Tarly. Sam doubts the number of the Lord Commanders and states in AFFC, Sam 1 talking to the Lord Commander Jon Snow:

“ we say that you are the nine-hundred and ninety-ninth Lord Commander of the Nights Watch, but the oldest list I’ve found shows six hundred seventy four commanders, which suggests that it was written during….”

And of course here we have another one of those untimely interruptions; the same interruption that prevents Old Nan and Maester Luwin from finishing their history lessons. If 999 LC’s correct and the oldest list that Sam has found contains 674 LC’s, then it is safe to assume that this list was created some 325 LC’s ago.

So for the purposes of this evaluation I’ve chosen to use an average tenure of 7 years for each LC. Two reasons: first I think 10 years is too long (that would be the first LC at 10,000 years ago) and secondly, it helps to fit into my time line hypothesis. If you apply 7 years for 999 LC’s this moves you back about 6,500 to 6,700 years before Aegon’s Landing and drops you dangerously close to a pact between the Andals and the FM.

Summary

Based on the text the NK was the 13^th LC and would thus closely follow the building of the Wall. But if we bring the NK forward in time then you approach a period of time where history is being recorded in writing. Thus it would stand to reason that the building of the Wall would certainly have made a big splash in the septon’s writings. So for the Heretical view, you need to separate the building of the Wall and the Night’s King by hundreds, possibly a thousand years.

So the Long Night, the Others and the building of Wall appear to be correctly placed at 8,000 plus/minus years ago. The Nights King, in large part due to the 999 LC’s, needs to be brought forward in time and helps to explain the pact between the FM and the Andals.

References:

• Black Crow. H6: P330 / H29: P219, 285, 309, 335, 346
  
• Feather Crystal. H29: P329
  
• Toccs: H29: P310 / H30: P65
  
• Tyryan: H29: P303, 318, 319 / H30: P51
  

[King of Winters]

The Pact between FM and the Andals explains a lot. Why the NW changed their original function to protecting the barrier from Man and the Old Races' lands beyond the Wall. They make the last LC of the NW and turn him into a scary story they tell children because he was helping the evil ww, so later generations wouldn't think that the FM were oath breakers and betraying the Old Races.

[LynnS]

This is fantastic Mace! So the First Men originally worshipped R'hllor, converted to the Old Gods; the Wall is created as a condition of the first Pact; Andals came and fought with the First Men and the CotF for territory in a holy war; drove the CotF as far north as the Neck; converting a portion of the population to the Faith except for the North which remains true to the old gods?

If King Ricard Stark allied himself with the Andals to defeat the Marsh King and the CotF; how is that the Starks still worship the old gods? Did he broker a pact to define territory and call off the threat of the hammer? The CotF move beyond the Wall for safety. Were the additional forts along the Wall raised during the Andal invasion to protect the CotF? To make sure the Wall is not breached from the South? Assuming that the Wall did not have it's current height; is this when men began to reinforce the wall? A function of all the additional forts?

[Black Crow]

This is fantastic Mace! So the First Men originally worshipped R'hllor, converted to the Old Gods; the Wall is created as a condition of the first Pact; Andals came and fought with the First Men and the CotF for territory in a holy war; drove the CotF as far north as the Neck; converting a portion of the population to the Faith except for the North which remains true to the old gods?

If King Ricard Stark allied himself with the Andals to defeat the Marsh King and the CotF; how is that the Starks still worship the old gods? Did he broker a pact to define territory and call off the threat of the hammer? The CotF move beyond the Wall for safety. Were the additional forts along the Wall raised during the Andal invasion to protect the CotF? To make sure the Wall is not breached from the South? Assuming that the Wall did not have it's current height; is this when men began to reinforce the wall? A function of all the additional forts?

I think you're misunderstanding slightly; we've had a go before at figuring out who the original gods of the First Men were and come up with the Storm God and the Lady of the Waves and a suspicion that the Drowned God (Cthulhu?) may also be "old".

The spilt with the Children may have something to do with the overthrow of the Nights King.

[Capon Breath]

Great OP Mace.

I really struggle with timelines. 1 not massively interested in it,2 needs lots of detailed running through which I always struggle to get the time for.

My main issue with timeline accuracy is the follow up question of "so what" for example if the long night was 5000 not 8000 years ago, so what? What impact does it have on the story? I'm really hoping this thread can establish some causal link between timelines and story that will help flesh out our understanding and the OP is a great start.

A couple of random things to throw In the mix.

AA prophecy is 5000 yrs ago? Does this help with the timeline debate?

Nights King - could he be a myth? How can the NW have a history that includes the NK but then seems to forget the existence of the WW? Are we sure he was 13th LC?

Leaf claims to be 200 yrs old? Does that lead us to any conclusions about COTF lifespan and if it does can they be a yardstick by which time is measured? Eg the long night could be 8 generations ago if they can live for 1000 yrs.

Just rambling sat this stage

[King of Winters]

I think you're misunderstanding slightly; we've had a go before at figuring out who the original gods of the First Men were and come up with the Storm God and the Lady of the Waves and a suspicion that the Drowned God (Cthulhu?) may also be "old".

The spilt with the Children may have something to do with the overthrow of the Nights King.

I've wondered if the FM's first gods were the Storm Gods, as they probably lived by the sea in Essos, or they could could have possibly worshipped the Rhoyne gods, if they're that old.

[Dagda]

Moat Cailin is more than just a head- scratcher ... It makes no possible defensive deterrent UNTIL the CotF bring down the failed Hammer and stick it in the middle of a swamp. And it is stated that the Hammer was called forth from the Children's Tower, so Cailin is already in place.

[Black Crow]

OK so far as the detailed running through, we're told at the beginning in AGoT of things happening 10,000 years ago and 8,000 years ago and so on, and there's still a tendency especially outside of Heresy to accept them uncritically, but as the books have moved on we've been given hints that things aint quite as they seem; hints that have become ever more explicit, so just to begin here’s Hoster Blackwood:

Only no one knows when the Andals crossed the narrow sea. The True History says four thousand years have passed since then, but some masters claim that it was only two. Past a certain point, all the dates grow hazy and confused, and the clarity of history becomes the fog of legend.

Rodrik the Reader says pretty much the same thing, but its important to distinguish between timelines and dates here. In the beginning we were told that men first came to Westeros 12,000 years ago, that the Wall and the Watch date from 8,000 years ago and that the Andals turned up in the Vale 6,000 years ago. Part of the confusion over the Andals appears to arise from some of them landing in the Vale 6,000 years ago, with the main migration occurring later.

Now we have suggestions in text that it wasn’t so long ago after all. Its still a long time ago in anybody’s money so does it actually make a difference? That rather depends on why GRRM inserted these “corrections”. The easy answer might be that having realised the original dates were a bit improbable, he’s simply ret-conning them, but why bother?

What is important is not the actual dates, which are unknowable in any case, but the framework of events as discussed by Mace above. Thus far we’ve been given no reason to believe that needs to e changed, so in order to avoid confusion and argument we’ll stick with the original dates as set out above. This might seem pretty basic, but bear with me.

The outline appears straightforward and its worth noting that notwithstanding Hoster’s remarks, this is what most people in Westeros believe and act upon. However when we try to apply that timeline to the wall we find that it isn’t so straightforward after all.

According to legend the Wall was built 8,000 years ago and has been manned by the watch ever since. Jon Snow is reckoned to be the 998^th Lord Commander which would imply a very reasonable average of 8 years for each of his predecessors - or slightly less if you go with Mace..

So far so good, but then we are explicitly told that the Nightfort is the oldest castle on the Wall and twice as old as the others. So how old is that? The Black Gate beneath the fort is as old as the Wall itself. Is it significant that the Nightfort is described as being the oldest on the Wall, but not described as being as old as the Wall. We have discussed in the past the possibility that originally there was just the well-house and that the castle came later, but lets keep it simple and work on the proposition that the Nightfort itself in one form or another has existed on that site since the Wall was built – 8,000 years ago.

A quick calculation on the fingers therefore tells us that Castle Black was built or started to be built 4,000 years ago. What about the others? Were they built with Castle Black or earlier. Whatever way you look at it for the first years of the Wall’s existence it had no castles apart from the Nightfort and presumably no proper garrison patrolling those 300-odd miles of ice. The Watch were in effect no more than gatekeepers for the Black Gate.

Then sticking with the programme about 4,000 years ago a programme of castle-building begins, and it comes at an interesting time.

1. We’re talking about the Andal invasion period and the creation or consolidation of the Seven Kingdoms under Andal rule. Yet against this backdrop massive resources are devoted to building castles along the Wall.
   

1. The Andals are incomers who neither experienced the full rigours of the Long Night in its awfulness, nor ran from the blue-eyed lot.
   

1. The North beyond the Neck was never conquered by the Andals, so this massive building programme and the men to carry out the work and then populate the castles can only be there with the consent of the Starks of Winterfell.
   

1. This consent and oversight is not inconsistent with what we see; a Watch not always commanded but certainly dominated by Starks and castles which serve as barracks but have no defences and cannot form a threat to the Stark kingdom of the North. There is also the business of pledging to play no part in the affairs of the realm, ie; they are allowed to go north for the purpose of manning those castles and the Wall but no other.
   

So why now, what has changed and why are the Starks of Winterfell co-operating? What are the Andals so afraid of?

And then there’s that list of Lord Commanders discovered by Sam. There are reasonable explanations for his findings, after all he himself complains that he hasn’t had time to look properly and that there might be more as yet undiscovered. Yet that interview with Jon is important. There’s something in there that he says, and we know its important because quite uniquely GRRM tells it twice, first as a Sam POV and then for a second time as a Jon POV.

One of the things Sam talks about is the oldest list of Lord Commanders he’s discovered, with 674 names on it. Now the point about any list of Lord Commanders is that depending on how its arranged it will either begin or end with the current incumbent. Once again, although Jon cuts him off, its easy to work out that it was only compiled about 324 Lord Commanders ago, or if we apply the 8 year average approximately 2600 years ago, which is well within the second phase of the Wall’s existence, but it does beg one more question given that GRRM through Sam draws our attention to it. How reliable is the list and did the compiler use an average of 8 years a pop to reach back to that legendary foundation date?

Again anent the Andals themselves, here’s Lord Rodrik aka Rodrik the reader in A Feast for Crows:

“I have been consulting Haereg’s History of the Ironborn. When last the salt kings and the rock kings met in Kingsmoot, Urron of Orkmont let his axemen loose among them, and Nagga’s ribs turned red with gore. House Greyiron ruled unchosen for a thousand years from that dark day, until the Andals came…

Asha smiled. “And miss the first kingsmoot called in…how long has it been, Nuncle?”

“Four thousand years, if Haereg can be believed. Half that, if you accept Maester Denestan’s arguments in Questions.”

This of course comes back to Hoster Blackwood’s statement that some masters the Andals didn’t turn up until 2,000 years ago. In this case. Haereg is giving the arrival of the Andals as 3,000 years ago with Maester Denestan arguing a more recent date. That there’s not a consensus is probably down to perspective with the Andals landing in the east and not causing problems for the Ironborn until much later.

Either way where there is consistency is in bringing the Andal arrival forwards and perhaps much further forwards from that 6,000 years bragged of by the Arryns.

There are further implications here for all sorts of things, but I don't want to hog the board and will come back to them later.

[Urrax2]

Good thorough OP, many thanks.

I'd just note that the excerpts from the World that were posted on some site and later taken down, emphasized not only the CotF but also the giants as the original inhabitants in the Dawn Age.

[Dagda]

What were the Andals so afraid of? Well, if you condense the timeline like you have, that would mean that the Andals were fleeing Valyrian and their magic, or dragons, and would want to do anything possible to shut magic out of their new lands. The Maesters are a clue to their utter fear and loathing of magic.

[Black Crow]

What were the Andals so afraid of? Well, if you condense the timeline like you have, that would mean that the Andals were fleeing Valyrian and their magic, or dragons, and would want to do anything possible to shut magic out of their new lands. The Maesters are a clue to their utter fear and loathing of magic.

Well this of course is another reason why sorting out the problems with the timelines are so important, because arguably to a certain extent so long as we're happy as to the sequencing of events it doesn't really matter whether something happened yesterday or the day before. Where it does become important is tying in other things.

On one level the timelines question is straightforward enough. At the outset we were presented with some impossibly mouldy dates; that the First Men came to Westeros 12,000 years ago; that the Long Night fell 8,000 years ago and the Andals arrived between 6,000 and 4,000 years ago. However we’ve since been told through Rodrik the Reader and Hoster Blackwood that some of these dates are nonsense and that the Andals rather more credibly only tooled up about 2,000 years ago and perhaps as recently as 1,500 years ago. No such correction has yet been offered on the earlier events like the Long Night but it would not be unreasonable to apply a similar discount, Thus we could see the First Men rather more realistically turning up as recently as 6,000 years ago and the Long Night as recently as 4,000 years ago.

We’re obviously not into an exact science here, it is only guesswork after all, but Mel claims that the Azor Ahai prophecy was recorded out east 5,000 years ago. Once again there may be some terminological inexactitude here, but its not inconsistent with a revised date for the Long Night. However we’ve also discussed the theory that the original Azor Ahai was a dragonslayer who fought against the Valyrians, and here is where adjusting the timeline gets interesting and strays into heresy.

We now know that the dates for the arrival of the Andals are wrong and that in reality they came over far more recently. If we also bring forward the Long Night to retain the 2,000 year gap between the two events, then it in turn becomes contemporary with the rise of the Valyrian Dragonlords. That then means that the Long Night was not a random, inexplicable catastrophe but a part of the Song of Ice and Fire and that the powers of Ice and Fire both “brake loose” at the same time.

[ElijahBrown]

This is the first I've read of pushing the Nights King up to the time of the Andals, though I have to admit it makes a bit of sense. Insofar as, in order for all mention of him to be stricken from the record, there needs to be a written record. It's my understanding there was none until the arrival of the andals.

[Beorn Snow]

What were the Andals so afraid of? Well, if you condense the timeline like you have, that would mean that the Andals were fleeing Valyrian and their magic, or dragons, and would want to do anything possible to shut magic out of their new lands. The Maesters are a clue to their utter fear and loathing of magic.

Not all maesters are afraid or sceptical of magic. The ravenry associated with them links maesters to the FM rather than the Andals in my opinion. Also note that the Hightowers themselves are FM, the ritual before donning the chain is trying to light a glass candle.

The thing that associates the Andals with anti-magic bias is the faith of the seven really. Also situated in Old town, but my guess would be that it is younger than the Maesters. The Maesters remain neutral (or at least claim to be neutral and serve everyone equally). Just like the watch. Maybe they were created at similar times.

[Melifeather]

Fabulous OP Mace! And I was nodding my head in agreement through the reading of it. The only thing I would add is the song about the Night's Watch riding out to confront the Others in the Battle for the Dawn. That song always bothered me, because originally we're told the Children helped the First Men defeat the White Walkers and then put up the Wall. It's confusing to insert the Night's Watch prior to the Wall being built, but It makes more sense if you replace that thought with the First Men and the Andals riding together to take over the Wall. It's a rewriting of history and a traditional form of propaganda.

I think it's telling when Ned Stark says Moat Cailin can easily be held by 100 determined archers from an attack from the south. My thoughts went directly to thinking, well it must have been attacked once from the north and succumbed. The story about the defeat of the Marsh King also is a clue that the Starks suddenly had a change in loyalty. These clues added to recent history with the Boltons changing their northern loyalties to ally with the Lannisters make me suspect that a similar event must have happened at that time. Add to this recipe the bastard ingredient and I go back to my earlier theory that somebody in the Stark history is a legitimized bastard.

When old King Edrick Stark had grown too feeble to defend his realm, the Wolf’s Den was captured by slavers from the Stepstones. They would brand their captives with hot irons and break them to the whip before shipping them off across the sea, and these same black stone walls bore witness. “Then a long cruel winter fell,” said Ser Bartimus. “The White Knife froze hard, and even the firth was icing up. The winds came howling from the north and drove them slavers inside to huddle round their fires, and whilst they warmed themselves the new king come down on them Brandon Stark this was, Edrick Snowbeard’s great-grandson, him that men called Ice Eyes. He took the Wolf’s Den back, stripped the slavers naked, and gave them to the slaves he’d found chained up in the dungeons. It’s said they hung their entrails in the branches of the heart tree, as an offering to the gods. The old gods, not these new ones from the south. Your Seven don’t know winter, and winter don’t know them.”

First question, is Edrick Snowbeard the same person as Edrick Stark? If he is, why not just say King Edrick's great-grandson? Furthermore, which family in the north has pale, icy blue eyes? I say, the Boltons.

[Dagda]

Not all maesters are afraid or sceptical of magic. The ravenry associated with them links maesters to the FM rather than the Andals in my opinion. Also note that the Hightowers themselves are FM, the ritual before donning the chain is trying to light a glass candle.

The thing that associates the Andals with anti-magic bias is the faith of the seven really. Also situated in Old town, but my guess would be that it is younger than the Maesters. The Maesters remain neutral (or at least claim to be neutral and serve everyone equally). Just like the watch. Maybe they were created at similar times.

The Maesters that are associated with magic are small, segregated group within the majority. Remember "who do you think was responsible for the death of the dragons", and the disregard shown by the Maesters over any of the Legends. The ravens don't talk anymore as they did when the CotF ran things.

The candle glass, from my reading of the story, is a demonstration in the futility of magic, not a confirmation. Struggle as you may, cut yourself trying, but it doesn't work! The Maesters are in shock when the candles DO fire up.

[Dagda]

BC, how about turning the timeline and going backwards, running on the assumption that the closer to present, the more trust worthy the history. If you build backwards, there might be clues that have been missed.

Do we trust the Eastros timeline? With Valyian history and possibly Ghiscar history, there would be continuous written records, thus making the histories more valid. Forse the Westros timeline to conform. :)

[JNR]

Very nice job of introduction to this very challenging area. Well done, Mace!

Some thoughts...

The first issue is that of the Nights Watch, which largely follows the New Gods rather than the Old and swears an oath based on prayers to R'hllor. Are we to believe that the Nights Watch was created to guard the wall and swear an oath based on a religion that did not come to Westeros until hundreds, possible thousands of years after the fact?

I certainly don't believe it.

However, I see no particular reason to think the oath is based on prayers to R'hllor. Such an idea is never stated in the books.

Where did this idea come from in Heresy -- the references to the night and darkness? Those could have emerged from the Long Night... not the faith of R'hllor.

(In fact, I think an argument could be made that the Long Night, which GRRM has said in interviews had a meteorological effect worldwide, led to both the Watch and the red faith.)

From the text we know that Moat Cailin was built some 8,000 to 10,000 years ago by the FM to establish a stronghold for the North and that it was the sight of the infamous attempt by the COTF to shatter the neck to stop the advancing Andals.

Actually, the text never says the second Hammer was deployed to stop the Andals. That's just a common assumption in Heresy.

It might also have been deployed to stop the First Men, and the Pact adopted specifically because it failed.

The Nights King, in large part due to the 999 LC’s, needs to be brought forward in time and helps to explain the pact between the FM and the Andals.

If there was a pact between the FM and the Andals.

The text makes no such reference that I recall. What it says is that the Andals tried and failed repeatedly to invade the North, being balked at Moat Cailin every time (and apparently forgetting they had ships and the North has an endless coastline).

So I'm not sure there's much to explain, except the assumption in Heresy that there was a second Pact of sorts, which is never mentioned in the books.

[JNR]

we've had a go before at figuring out who the original gods of the First Men were and come up with the Storm God and the Lady of the Waves and a suspicion that the Drowned God (Cthulhu?) may also be "old".

:agree: , having independently arrived at the same ideas for completely different reasons than those given in Heresy.

[JNR]

Moat Cailin is more than just a head- scratcher ... It makes no possible defensive deterrent UNTIL the CotF bring down the failed Hammer and stick it in the middle of a swamp. And it is stated that the Hammer was called forth from the Children's Tower, so Cailin is already in place.

Very good points, especially the boldfaced one.

That's exactly why I think the second Hammer was deployed against the First Men... created the swamp... led to the Pact... and then Moat Cailin was built, because then it was in a super-strategic place. This also explains why it and the Pact are the same age: 10K years.

This does require, of course, that we look a bit cock-eyed at the story that the CotF called down the Hammer from Moat Cailin. Personally, I am prepared to doubt that story in the face of the above logic, but many won't.

Moat Cailin deserves a lot more analysis.