Can Mace Tyrell Seize The Iron Throne During The Winds Of Winter?

[Rhinoman]

First time poster so please be gentle

I keep looking at speculations posts for TWOW and I do not see individuals believe that Mace Tyrell will seize The Iron Throne for himself. When we look at the state of affairs going into TWOW, Mace Tyrell has the ability to make a short sighted play for The Iron Throne.

1) Mace Tyrell is acting Hand of the King, without necessarily having an allegiance to King Tommen. As of now Mace makes the decisions on behalf on Tommen, as Cersei is in prison and Kevan is dead. Mace is in the unique position where he can seize power by eliminating Tommen and gain all the power in Westeros. As of now he holds the cards of Lord Reagent and Hand of the King.

2) Mace controls The Small Council, with the elimination of Kevan there is no other King Reagent, and Mace will be in a position to replace Grand Maester Pycell om the small council. The Tyrell's control the positions of King Reagent, Master of Laws, and Master of Ships. With Jamie Lannister not at Kings Landing, the council already belongs to the Tyrells. By becoming King, he can allocate King's Landings ships to protect The Reach from the Iron born.

3) The Tyrell interest is the only one that matches with The Faith Militant. Tommen will always be believed to be the product of Cersei's omcest, Stannis is with the Red God, and the Iron Born supports the Drown God. If Mace was to seize The Iron Throne, if Tommen "unfortunately" dies, there would be no real push from The Faith to deny it from him. If Randall Tarly communicates with The Faith that the views of the Tyrell's match The Faith, Tyrell almost immediately gains a significant military force. The people of Kings Landing also love the Tyrells.

4) The Tyrells are likely scared of not controlling the circumstances of Tommens death. If Tommen were to die, and Mace not take the Throne, Trystane Martell would become the rightful king of Westeros. The Martell/Tyrell feud is well documented throughout the novels.

5) Mace is a coward, if he truly cares about the acquisition of power than now is the time. The Queen Reagent is powerless, and his enemies are seemingly at the weakest.

6) Margery will likely be found innocent during the trial, the evidence against her is weak at best. She will likely be found innocent and since Tommen and Margery have yet to consummate the marriage, than Mace will have no real allegiances to The Lannisters if Tommen were to die.

7) Tommen is vulnerable to immediate threats. I would not downplay the harm of losing so many Kings Guard members.

1) Jamie Lannister-Not in Kings Landing

2) Balon Swann- Not in Kings Landing

3) Loras Tyrell- Not in Kings Landing

4) Robert Strong- At Tommens side

5) Osmund Kettleblack- Will either likely be sent to The Wall or die in trial by combat to Robert Strong

6) Boros Blount- Easily disposable

7) Merlyn Trant- Not a significant risk

[Mordwyn of House Harcarste]

Interesting post!

I feel like Varys is sort of banking on this happening, he knows now that he has taken care of Kevan and Pycelle, the two ,arguably, most competent people left in KL that the Tyrells with take the power vacuum, and Mace being a massive oaf, will likely lose any consolidations gained by Kevan and Pycelle. At the moment, Mace's two concerns are his daughters trial and the Ironborn attacks on the

Reach, He will no doubt redirect forces from KL and Dragonstone to defending his homeland, leaving KL venerable to attack from Aegons forces.

While reading this i was wondering whether Loras would stay true to his vows as Kingsguard (assuming he's NOT all burned up and barely alive) or if he would support his house instead. He's obviously a passion driven person, example being killing Robar Royce and Emmon Cuy after Renly was killed purely because he thought they failed in their duty to protect their King so it stands to reason he wouldn't be opposed to siding with his House on the matters on the power base in KL.

[bluefoot3]

Welcome to the forum!

Interesting insight into Mace, but there's 0 chance whatsoever that The Tyrell's will outright seize the Iron Throne from Tommen.

First, what does Mace gain by eliminating Tommen and taking the Iron Throne?

1. Mace is already Hand of the King and the Tyrell's control the small council. For all intensive purposes, they ARE the ruling power behind Tommen's throne. Tommen will do whatever his small council tells him.

2. The realm will once again be thrown into political instability with the death of a King. Due to how weak the kingdoms are and with all the rebellions afoot (Euron, Stannis, etc.), stability from King's Landing is paramount to maintaining order. Why would Mace throw all of this away?

All I see him gaining is the glory of being able to call himself a king, while making himself the enemy of the rest of Westeros. Definitely not something he's stupid enough to do.

Ramifications of Tommen's death:

1. Myrcella now becomes the rightful heir, putting the Martells on the throne; if the Tyrell's try to deny the Martell's their rightful place, that goes against the laws of Westeros, and soon they'll have a huge rebellion on their hands, being Usurpers. Even the Faith would support the Martells, seeing as they also hold to the Seven.

2. Margaery's marriage becomes meaningless. She's only Queen if Tommen's King, and Mace is not going to let her lose power (it's how he got the Handship in the first place), after all the jockeying Mace did to get her to become Queen.

Also, this Faith has officially given it's blessing to King Tommen (check AFFC). They will back Tommen and his heir for the claim to the Throne. They may hate Cersei, but Tommen is the one they'll support, not the Tyrells. They can't be bought like the previous faiths.

[Winnief]

First, what does Mace gain by eliminating Tommen and taking the Iron Throne?

1. Mace is already Hand of the King and the Tyrell's control the small council. For all intensive purposes, they ARE the ruling power behind Tommen's throne. Tommen will do whatever his small council tells him.

2. The realm will once again be thrown into political instability with the death of a King. Due to how weak the kingdoms are and with all the rebellions afoot (Euron, Stannis, etc.), stability from King's Landing is paramount to maintaining order. Why would Mace throw all of this away?

All I see him gaining is the glory of being able to call himself a king, while making himself the enemy of the rest of Westeros. Definitely not something he's stupid enough to do.

Ramifications of Tommen's death:

1. Myrcella now becomes the rightful heir, putting the Martells on the throne; if the Tyrell's try to deny the Martell's their rightful place, that goes against the laws of Westeros, and soon they'll have a huge rebellion on their hands, being Usurpers. Even the Faith would support the Martells, seeing as they also hold to the Seven.

2. Margaery's marriage becomes meaningless. She's only Queen if Tommen's King, and Mace is not going to let her lose power (it's how he got the Handship in the first place), after all the jockeying Mace did to get her to become Queen.

Also, this Faith has officially given it's blessing to King Tommen (check AFFC). They will back Tommen and his heir for the claim to the Throne. They may hate Cersei, but Tommen is the one they'll support, not the Tyrells. They can't be bought like the previous faiths.

:agree:

The Tyrell's will never attack Tommen themselves-he's too vital to them...but if/when Tommen dies, Mace might try something desperate and ignore Olenna's advice to just call it quits and go home. He might for instance hope to get Myrcella away from the Martell's to marry Willas...

[Mayura]

The way i understand the Tyrells's game, they don't want to seize the Iron Throne by means of conquest. Killing off the Lannisters would only mean the Tyrells are finding themselves in a precarious position and with no claim to the IT other than their right of conquest, which might be heavily disputed by the other westerosi lords.

They want their right to the throne to derive from a trueborn child born from Margaery (apparently) and the ruler (they didn't seem to mind too much whether it was fat Bob or even his fake son, so I'd assume all they want is to make sure their descendants sit the IT and are unchallenged). In that regard, they are not unlike the Martells who wanted to try to gain the IT through an alliance with the exiled Targaryens, the Tyrells just chose to bet on the current rulers rather than the previous ones. However, with the Lannisters soon to be out of the game, I have a feeling Mace Tyrell's armies flying to meet Aegon are not going towards him in defiance but with an alliance proposal between Margaery and Aegon.

This is basically why I think Mace Tyrell will not seize the IT for himself, he seems to be a cautious man and he is trying to install his family at court through alliances rather than through conquest.

[HannibalStark]

I don't think MACE could get his grubby little hands on it, and if it fell into his lap, he wouldn't be able to keep it for long. Mace is a dolt like it seems his father was....I don't think that he or the Tyrells would be anywhere if it wasn't for the Tyrell Women.

If you are asking if the Tyrells (with MACE only being the public face and nothing else) Then yes, but it would seem that incest or no, keeping Tommen as the king with Marg as the Queen would be their best option....which kinda means that if Cersei can be dealt with, the Iron Throne is currently theirs, isn't it? ...and they only got there through the Tyrell women and MACE staying out of the way.

accusations of incest or no, there is actually way to prove that Tommen isn't Robert's child and as long as Jaimie doesn't actually make good on his comments of proclaiming his children are his, there is no reason for the Tyrells to do so either, is there?

[Winnief]

However, with the Lannisters soon to be out of the game, I have a feeling Mace Tyrell's armies flying to meet Aegon are not going towards him in defiance but with an alliance proposal between Margaery and Aegon.

They may very well try to do that Mayura-(god knows they're getting sick of the Lannisters,) but they'll have competition from Arianne/Dorne on that score. That would be an interesting rivalry...

If I were fAegon, I'd go with the Tyrell's-better army, more riches, more popular support, but who knows how it will all play...

[Urien the Ragged]

Mace has no claim, at all. He'd at least need a pretense to the throne. Before anyone comes back at me saying that Robert didn't have one, well, yes, he did.

Mace may have the might to take the throne, but he doesn't have the claim to keep the realm together once it's seized.

[Tini]

Claim alone is not enough - Viserys had claims, but no power to enforce them. The Tyrells neither have a claim to the throne (except through Tommen), nor are they strong enough to keep the throne if they take it by force. It was one reason for the Lannisters to seek an alliance with the Tyrells.

[Jairion Lannister]

He wouldn't have a legal claim for the Tyrells to take the throne as rulers as such, but he has enough now to rule as the Lord Regent and control KL in the way Tywin and the Lannisters did. The Tyrells, in time with no enemies, would essentially have the exact position of the Lannisters if Tommen had a child with Margaery but wasn't a strong ruler. The Tyrells would control the realm, despite not being the actual royal family. Although from a plot point of view, Aegon will be in KL soon and it might work best for Mace to seal a new-found alliance and allow the Targaryens to rule again. Then Daenerys would come afterwards, which would have more disastrous consequences.

[The Dragon has three heads]

Mace gains more by befriending tommen and becoming regent in his minority rather than removing him altogether.

[Montey14]

If Robert Strong were to lose the trial by combat for Cersei, that would mean Tommen would be ruled ilegitimate and therefore lose his claim to the throne. That would through a big wrench in the Tyrell plans as there power is derived from Margary's marriage to Tommen.....so I would think the Tyrells want things to be as quiet as possible ....I don't think they would want anything happening to Tommen .....they already own the small council so in essence they are they ruling powers.....but it remains to be seen what kind of trouble the sand snakes can stir up once they arrive in KL.....they have vengence and sabatoge on their minds .....and who knows if they are in cahoots with Varys

[Winnief]

He wouldn't have a legal claim for the Tyrells to take the throne as rulers as such, but he has enough now to rule as the Lord Regent and control KL in the way Tywin and the Lannisters did. The Tyrells, in time with no enemies, would essentially have the exact position of the Lannisters if Tommen had a child with Margaery but wasn't a strong ruler. The Tyrells would control the realm, despite not being the actual royal family.

That might be exactly what Mace and the other Tyrell's are planning-they're in a good position now that Kevan's dead to get Mace appointed Regent and have Cersei sent back to CR. (After all nobody wants Cersei to remain in KL with any power or influence over Tommen-not even her own family.)

But there are a couple things that could drastically change that calculus; firstly the IB invasion of the Reach is such a huge crisis that they may have to put aside all thoughts of the IT to squash that threat-especially if/when Oldtown gets attacked and it becomes pure chaos in the Reach and the other six kingdoms too.

Secondly-Aegon and the Golden Company...and that's nothing compared to the problem if/when Dany gets to Westeros.

[HannibalStark]

They may very well try to do that Mayura-(god knows they're getting sick of the Lannisters,) but they'll have competition from Arianne/Dorne on that score. That would be an interesting rivalry...

If I were fAegon, I'd go with the Tyrell's-better army, more riches, more popular support, but who knows how it will all play...

Fire and Blood..wouldnt they have to go with their family/Dorne?

At this point if the Targs break faith with Dorne after all these years it would feel kinda crappy, right?

[Fat Walda's Paramour]

I actually think Marge will lose her trial. The charges are most likely false, but I think Marge's plan to go on trial so the world can see her innocence will blow up in her face. Now, given the fact that Mace has an army in Kings Landing, I think he'll blow up and attack the Faith, which will probably result in his death, and certainly in the near destruction of the city. He may try to take the Throne, but he'd have no claim at all and I'd imagine his rage at his daughter's death would overwhelm his ambition.

Then Willas would take over as Lord of Highgarten, and he'd be in a position to a. Rule far more wisely than his father, and b. Side with Danny or Aegon, rather than stay with Lanneratheons.

[Winnief]

I actually think Marge will lose her trial. The charges are most likely false, but I think Marge's plan to go on trial so the world can see her innocence will blow up in her face. Now, given the fact that Mace has an army in Kings Landing, I think he'll blow up and attack the Faith, which will probably result in his death, and certainly in the near destruction of the city. He may try to take the Throne, but he'd have no claim at all and I'd imagine his rage at his daughter's death would overwhelm his ambition.

Then Willas would take over as Lord of Highgarten, and he'd be in a position to a. Rule far more wisely than his father, and b. Side with Danny or Aegon, rather than stay with Lanneratheons.

Well one way, I could see Margaery losing her trial would be if Cersei fixed it by bribing the jury or something. Or alternatively Varys could see to it that Margaery was found guilty as a way of sowing maximum chaos, and helping destroy the Tyrell's to pave the way for Aegon.

[Lord_Tyrell]

Mace is an oaf. I'd take Cersei over him. The question is can Margeary or Olenna take it for Mace.

[Quentyn Kartell]

I believe it's Varys plan that both Margeary and Cersei will win their trials. This way there will continue to be no clear leader in Kings Landing, which will pave the way for Aegon.

[Mayura]

Fire and Blood..wouldnt they have to go with their family/Dorne?

At this point if the Targs break faith with Dorne after all these years it would feel kinda crappy, right?

With regards to this and to Winnief's quote beforehands, I think it is very difficult to guess with who Aegon is going to side or simply who is going to want to side with Aegon.

1. I don't think the relationships between Tyrell/Martell are as tense as they would have everyone believe. They were both Targaryen loyalists and I think there is a possibility they will both try to side with Aegon.

2. About the Martells: I think they will turn against Daenerys soon enough, considering Drinkwater and co believe Doran will blame Daenerys for Quentyn's death. And if we look at (TWOW)

Arianne's gift chapter from TWOW: Doran and Arianne doubt the legitimacy of Aegon as well and Arianne is already nourishing a sort of dislike/jealousy for Daenerys

. In the end, their alliance with Aegon will depends on two things: 1) whether Doran chooses to believe he is real (I am saying "chooses" because he has his doubts and I don't know whether he'd do what the Tyrells have done, aka accepting a fraud for a husband for Arianne so they can win the throne through him. 2) Whether Aegon still wants to side with Dany and whether Dany wants to side with Aegon. The way I see it, an alliance between Aegon x Martells would prevent any further alliance with Daenerys as the proud Martells are not likely to forget what happened to Q. Therefore when Daenerys will get to Westeros, she will find Aegon and someone else sitting on "her" throne and she will have to conquer Westeros by deposing them.

3) About the Tyrells: it is undeniable they want their reach on the throne as well. They are ready to do it even though they know for a fact the current "king" is a fraud. They obviously want a claim to the throne deriving from a lineage claim. They have two solutions:

(1) Keeping Tommen alive and ruling through him. If Cersei looses her trial, it is going to prove difficult. Plus the Lannisters are loosing all of their power and, soon enough, they won't hold any more power on the North (the Boltons are like to be butt-kicked sooner or later), they Freys will likely turn against each other on top of getting a giant slap in the face at the upcoming wedding as well as in the North, the Martells are obviously going to side with the Lannisters, Stannis will potentially gain more influence over the North, Highgarden/Oldtown and cie are being threathened by the Iron Born... Should they choose to keep going through Tommen's claim (knowing that he cannot give a heir through Marg any time soon), I think they will fail to keep the power in their hand rather sooner than later. They are loosing too many bannermen, the power in KL has been shaken and the Tyrells have too many fishes to fry down south to be able to gather their full force to keep KL safely under their control. Not to mention that I have a feeling the Faith of the Seven is likely to support Aegon's claim rather than Tommen's.

(2) I think at first they are going to try to side with Aegon, offering him the throne in exchange of an alliance through Margaery. Then Aegon could accept or refuse but I have a doubt Varys, Illyrio and JonCon would let their precious little prince marry the widow of 3 previous kings. Talk about bad omen...

So I think if they don't side with Aegon (through being refused for example), being Targaryen loyalists they might try to side with Daenerys instead, this time not through Marg but maybe Loras or Wyllas. Therefore, this would re-create tensions between the Martells (allegedly supporting Aegon) and the Tyrells (allegedly supporting Daenerys).

In the end, both the Martells and the Tyrells cannot have satisfaction. They will each need to support a camp to see their offsprings on the IT. Unless Aegon agrees to a double wedding, who knows.

Now this brings me to a question I am asking you guys as you might have an idea: why do you think Margaey was deliberately kept "untouched"? I mean the plan was allegedly to marry her to big Bob before she married Renly (who had a quite notorious relationship with Loras apparently) and then Joff (who the Tyrells plotted to kill before he could touch Marg), then to Tommen who is obviously too young to impregnate Marg.

I think of all of these candidates, Joffrey was the most likely to give her an heir. I know the Tyrells thought he was quite violent and not good enough for Margaery but wouldn't it have been a better move to have Marg carry a royal baby before putting an end to King Joff's reign? Even a single night with Joff could have meant a better grip on the throne for the Tyrells. So my question is: is it possible there is another reason Margaery was carefully protected from being impregnated by any of the "kings" she has been married to? Are they waiting for "the right person", someone with a less disputed claim on the throne?

[aryagonnakill#2]

Now this brings me to a question I am asking you guys as you might have an idea: why do you think Margaey was deliberately kept "untouched"? I mean the plan was allegedly to marry her to big Bob before she married Renly (who had a quite notorious relationship with Loras apparently) and then Joff (who the Tyrells plotted to kill before he could touch Marg), then to Tommen who is obviously too young to impregnate Marg.

I think of all of these candidates, Joffrey was the most likely to give her an heir. I know the Tyrells thought he was quite violent and not good enough for Margaery but wouldn't it have been a better move to have Marg carry a royal baby before putting an end to King Joff's reign? Even a single night with Joff could have meant a better grip on the throne for the Tyrells. So my question is: is it possible there is another reason Margaery was carefully protected from being impregnated by any of the "kings" she has been married to? Are they waiting for "the right person", someone with a less disputed claim on the throne?

I think your reading too much into this. If the Tyrells had their way to begin with King Robb would have had his way with her. If they had had their way Renly would have at least given her an heir. In one point in the book it is suggested that Renly did have sex with her on their wedding night. A woman who disrobed him like they do at their weddings, said he had an erection, I have a gay friend who once told me he had sex with women even knowing he was gay. Joffrey was a different matter, they wanted the throne but Marg and Olenna were just like " theres no way I'm putting up with Joffrey" The show also shows Marg successfully manipulating Joffrey, but that was not in the book, Marg would never have had power if she was married to Joff, but with Tommen they figured she could pry Tommen away from Cersei before he was old enough to rule. Had Marg gotten some wedding night love from Joff I think it would have made her engagement to Tommen less secure, rather than more secure. A baby would only complicate the situation further. The Lannisters would not want the baby being declared the king, it would loose them everything. If Marg is the mother of the king then she could claim the regency rather than Cersei. Marg would have been very vulnerable during her pregnancy. If Cersei didn't kill her she would loose everything. The way they did it they got to keep their alliance with the Lannisters, and set themselves up to have Marg doing the real ruling with a weak Tommen as king.