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The plan to kill Trystane: I'm not sure it's Cersei's


Good Guy Garlan

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The plan reeks of Cersei in that it is half-assed and short-sighted. She would see it as brilliant in that she gets Myrcella back, and ends her betrothal to Trystane without losing Dorne when it is actually a bad plan in that without Myrcella's betrothal to Trystane, what is going to bind the Martells to the same family who killed Elia and her children?

Balon may be a man of honor, but as Doran explained, he is still sworn to obey. Other members of the KG could have been assigned the position, but I don't think Cersei paid much thought to which member of the KG went.


So, is Doran lying just to piss off the Sandsnakes? Unlikely, since they are pissed off already. I think someone really told Doran about the so-called plan, someone who needs the Lannisters and the Martells to be at each other's throats, and someone who needs to start earning Doran's trust: Varys. He needs Doran to think of him as a friend to win Dorne's support for Aegon. I think Doran's remark about having friends at court means Varys.

Ran states that it is actually Taena Merryweather to which I agree. She is obvioiusly working for someone else, and Cersei has referred to her as a serpent; Cersei also called the Martells snakes. Doran said he needed an ear at court, indicating that their source had left KL, and that excludes Varys, while Taena had left after Cersei's imprisonment.


Cersei's reaction is not surprising, considering she blames Tyrion for everything. But there's something weird here:

Martin has already revealed the plan to kill Trystane in a previous chapter ("The Watcher"), so why, if the plan is really Cersei's, does he still keep it vague? Why not have Cersei think about it outright?

GRRM did the same thing with Tyrion's plan in finding out who the informer to Cersei was. We didn't know the plan until later in the book. He kept us guessing, because that is what he has been known to do.

Also, Balon Swann is described as sweating even though he hasn't had anything spicy, and the hall was cool when he was discussing the matter of Trystane going to KL.

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Re the OP:



I suppose it may be possible that Cersei really didn't order Trystane to be killed, only Myrcella "rescued". Someone else may have intervened and changed the orders to involve the ambush and murder of Trystane, perhaps by forgery or some other art.



That being said, the odds are much better that Cersei is simply inconsistent in her thinking, part of that whole "unreliable narrator" issue. She is one who tends to rationalize her more abhorrent actions, even rewriting them in her own head. After all, she thinks Sansa wronged her without cause, and as I recall she blames Margaery for having forced her to invent the whole High Sparrow gambit, and even thinks she was "forced" to send Falyse to Qyburn. Cersei never considers herself at fault for her own actions and mistakes.



As far as who would have leaked Cersei's plans to Doran, my money's on Taena, since that was the only one she confided anything to around that time.







This. Balon Swann has consistently shown himself to be the only honourable knight of the Kingsguard, and is even perceived as such by Jaime, Tyrion and a few others. Why would she send him instead of Osmund Kettleblack or even Meryn Trant? Especially considering she "used" Balon during Tyrion's trial, knowing he wouldn't lie for her and then use everyone else's damning "evidence" to condemn her brother. She knows first-hand how reluctant he is to follow shady orders.






Well, she is a poor judge of ability. A Kettleblack or Meryn Trant would have sufficed to kill the boy, but she sent Swann instead. Swann would be best used guarding her son, since he's actually a knight of some quality. Her idea of quality is a bit distorted - Jaime would likely be a better judge of who to send to what duties. Then again, she lately rejects Jaime's opinions on such matters too.



Balon Swann is probably only going along with it because like a good KG he is above all dutiful and takes his vows seriously. The KG are not supposed to judge those they serve nor decide what orders they will follow.



Ironically, Jaime may have precipitated this state of affairs by pressing Swann to guarantee he would not do what Jaime did - ultimately Jaime failed as a KG because he did judge for himself and found his orders too abhorrent to follow. Kingslaying followed.



So yeah, it is plausible that an honourable kingsguard knight would still follow his dishonourable orders.


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But that assumes that Varys is telling Doran 1. everything and 2. the truth. Just because he'd feed Doran a line about Balon being sent to kill Trystane doesn't mean he'd jump the gun and tell him about Aegon.

Fair enough, but I dont think there's such a thing as jumping the gun with Doran Martell. We're talking about a man who's been nursing a revenge fantasy for over a decade, and who successfully kept a marriage pact with an exiled claimant to the Throne secret for just as long.
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I'm not picturing Cersei sitting with steepled fingers and explaining her plan to Tommens cat. But from her POV, especially as she thinks about and speaks about Tyrion in league with the Dornish, i would expect at least some kind of mental aside to the effect: "lets see how much they love him in a moons turn"

I see her talking about Tyrion and the Dornish to Kevan as her simply planting the idea in others minds, setting the stage so to speak for when her plan comes to fruition so that she's has allies if Dorne were to cry foul.
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We know too little about said plan. There are several possibilities:



a) It sounds mad enough to be Cersei's plan. It could be real...



b ) Doran is lying to ensure Arianne's and the Sandsnakes' loyalty



c) Doran has been fed misinformation by his informants



d) Someone else was planning to attack and kill Trystane and make it look like it was Cersei's plotting all along.


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I do think, that Cersei's plan to have Trystane killed is real. However, I really think, that this is an instance, where GRRM is not honest with the POV structure (like in the case where Arya killed Dareon). The thing, that really gave it away for me was this line





Ser Balon would have


another task as well, but that part was best left unsaid.




Why should Cersei lie to her Small Council (who do not even criticize the Red Wedding!) if she only wants to take Myrcella home?


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I do think, that Cersei's plan to have Trystane killed is real. However, I really think, that this is an instance, where GRRM is not honest with the POV structure (like in the case where Arya killed Dareon). The thing, that really gave it away for me was this line

Why should Cersei lie to her Small Council (who do not even criticize the Red Wedding!) if she only wants to take Myrcella home?

Why would Cersei hire shagga and the stone crows? (the descripton of the outlaws reads a lot like them)

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I do think, that Cersei's plan to have Trystane killed is real. However, I really think, that this is an instance, where GRRM is not honest with the POV structure (like in the case where Arya killed Dareon). The thing, that really gave it away for me was this line

Why should Cersei lie to her Small Council (who do not even criticize the Red Wedding!) if she only wants to take Myrcella home?

First, the RW was Tywins and nobody on the council would nay say Tywin. Cersei is not Tywin. Plus they were already at war with the Starks, but Dorne...they need Dorne. With Oberyns death, bringing Mycella back could jeopardize the Dorne relationship altogether. On the other hand, as some of the previous posters mentioned, this does sound like the kind of clusterfuck of a plan Cersie would come up with under the delusion that she is Tywin Jr.

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Why should Cersei lie to her Small Council (who do not even criticize the Red Wedding!) if she only wants to take Myrcella home?

Maybe because that's not all she wants. Maybe she wants to keep Myrcella and Trystane in KL indefinetly, the latter as a hostage. Or she might even want to break up the betrodal, once Myrcella is safely in KL

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Why should Cersei lie to her Small Council (who do not even criticize the Red Wedding!) if she only wants to take Myrcella home?

Breaking a marriage suit and/or taking Trystane hostage but not killing are both politically volatile incidents, especially with a place like Dorne whose relationship with the capital is already fragile. If Cersei were open about wanting to bring Myrcella home or take Trystane captive, the council may have worked against it, or even leaked the plan.

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  • 3 months later...

I just thought of something about this and it feels like I was missing something obvious



Cersei couldn't do it simply because she has no people. As simple as that. Who are her most trusted lackeys? The Kettleblacks, Qyburn, Taena and Aurane. And the other fools at her small council, I guess. There's no mention, not even a hint of her hiring outlaws or sellswords or something like that



And there's also this: if there's one thing we can say about Cersei is that she's paranoid. She's obssesed with covering her tracks after every little scheme. That's why he gave Falyse to Qyburn, even though she only knew about Cersei's wish to have Bronn killed, which is nothing compared to an assassination of a Prince of Dorne. Cersei even wants to kill one of the Kettleblacks after he kills Jon, just to stop him from talking



So how exactly did Cersei plan to silence an entire mob of who knows how many outlaws? If she doesn't trust her own shadow, how would she trust some random sellswords or whatever they are to carry out such a delicate task?



On the surface I can see why the plot reeks of Cersei, but looking at it carefully it's not her MO.


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I just thought of something about this and it feels like I was missing something obvious

Cersei couldn't do it simply because she has no people. As simple as that. Who are her most trusted lackeys? The Kettleblacks, Qyburn, Taena and Aurane. And the other fools at her small council, I guess. There's no mention, not even a hint of her hiring outlaws or sellswords or something like that

Shagga and the Stone Crows are in the kingswood according to Bronn, and they served her brother Tyrion whom they refer to as "Halfman," the word the outlaws are supposed to shout. She could have sent them a generous offer, planning to screw them over. If Shagga mentions the deal, Cersei will just deny culpability, saying he is just a lying savage, and of course Shagga would have no proof.

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Shagga and the Stone Crows are in the kingswood according to Bronn, and they served her brother Tyrion whom they refer to as "Halfman," the word the outlaws are supposed to shout. She could have sent them a generous offer, planning to screw them over. If Shagga mentions the deal, Cersei will just deny culpability, saying he is just a lying savage, and of course Shagga would have no proof.

Except that Cersei wants nothing to do with anyone even tenously connected to Tyrion. She even killed the High Septon just because Tyrion appointed him.

She'd be more likely to send the goldcloaks to butcher the whole lot of hill tribes than to work with them, especially in something as delicate as this. I'm sure Cersei thinks they are Tyrion's pets anyway, so she'd be extra paranoid and wary of them

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Except that Cersei wants nothing to do with anyone even tenously connected to Tyrion. She even killed the High Septon just because Tyrion appointed him.

She'd be more likely to send the goldcloaks to butcher the whole lot of hill tribes than to work with them, especially in something as delicate as this. I'm sure Cersei thinks they are Tyrion's pets anyway, so she'd be extra paranoid and wary of them

I thought she had the High Septon murdered because of Lancel
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Except that Cersei wants nothing to do with anyone even tenously connected to Tyrion. She even killed the High Septon just because Tyrion appointed him.

She'd be more likely to send the goldcloaks to butcher the whole lot of hill tribes than to work with them, especially in something as delicate as this. I'm sure Cersei thinks they are Tyrion's pets anyway, so she'd be extra paranoid and wary of them

Except the plan would inevitably result in Tyrion's allies being killed most likely since the Dornish would want to avenge Trystane. It would be killing two birds with one stone.

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