The Jon Snow ReRead Project! Part 4! (FFC-DwD)

[Ragnorak]

A few thoughts on Jon/Sansa parallels from the last ASOS chapters, before moving on.

I think there are various angles to look at it, not all of them converging.

1) Jon/Stannis and Sansa/Littlefinger

This is not, I believe, a direct parallel between Jon and Sansa but rather a parallel of each of them to Ned/Robert and Ned/Littlefinger. The connecting point is that both Jon and Sansa impersonate Ned's part in their relative stories. These parallels could represent a second chance for things to be done "right" this time.

<snip>

I like your ideas here. Your point about Ned and Robert's friendship made me think about how Ned was trusting LF for the friendship he had with Cat rather than because he was specifically seduced or tricked by LF the way Varys does with Tyrion. I wonder if there is a commentary about friendship or "love" similar to the many comments we get over the series about tragedy flowing from marriages for love over politics.

I think the stories parallel in dynamics or mechanics as Lummel pointed out at the end of the last thread yet with many opposite elements. Jon is imprisoned by his own internal forces at the Wall while Sansa is imprisoned by external forces. On a first read the pragmatic truths of their respective positions makes them seem far different but the overall imprisonment theme is parallel. So much of LF and Stannis are polar opposites. LF is smiles and sweet lies while Stannis is frowns and blunt truths. Jon was besieged by an enemy that will become his ally and soon Sansa will be besieged by enemies that are likely to be her allies. Jon will follow Stannis' lead and let the Wildlings through the Wall but on a different set of terms that make them Jon's instead. Will that dynamic play out with Sansa in the Vale? The two are far from perfect parallels but that's what really piques my curiosity with the high level thematic similarity with so many opposite elements in the details. There's also the Jon/Sansa role reversal, the Ned parallels and the Cat influence layered on top.

Your idea about the Starks having incomplete skill sets and needing to form a pack to survive and rebuild Winterfell fits with my sense of all these opposites in Jon and Sansa. I also think you're correct. It fits with each of them being given a "Ned mistake" to rectify.

Disparate remarks to catch up on AGoT-ACoK-ASoS and various replies.

Squiring for Mormont

About Jon’s formative years, I can’t understand that Ned did not send Jon to another castle for squiring (like Larence Snow has been sent to Deepwood Motte for instance).

For any highborn boy the squiring years are an essential formative experience. The relationship is comparable to the master/apprentice, the advisor/PhD student etc. It’s also intimate: the squire brings the meals, prepares the clothes, sleeps at the side of the knight, empties the chamberpot etc. Sometimes it’s even more intimate: Renly/Loras, Oberyn/Daemon.

<snip>

Longclaw

Sometimes, a squire is awarded his knighthood from the man he has served. Of course, there is no chivalry in the north. But it seems that the gift of Longclaw is pretty much equivalent to a knighthood. I can add a few words on Valyrian swords. It seems that those swords have a value which can not be measured financially. They change hands by being given, taken or inherited but never sold or exchanged. (Oathkeeper given to Jaime, then to Brienne. Widow’s Wail given to Joffrey, inherited by Tommen, given to Loras. Lady Forlorn given to Lyn Corbray.) Those swords carry the contradictory ideas of being family heirlooms (i.e. remaining in the main branch) but being in need to fall in the most valorous hands (not always the eldest son). Randyll Tarly justifies specifically the disinheritance of Sam in reason of the family sword. Lord Corbray split the lordship and the sword between his sons. Of course, the story of Daemon Blackfyre looms large and, I suppose, is always a reference when a sword is not given to the proper heir. After all, like Daemon, Jon is a bastard, what significance does the Blackfyre story carry for him?

Aemon’s ravens

Another mystery. Before the battle at the Wall, Aemon called the whole realm for help, especially the houses in the north, with two ravens for each destination. How is it that no help came, except for Stannis? After all the Umbers notoriously loathe the wildlings, have a history of stopping their invasions, and still had some men (at least greybeards and green boys) at the Last Hearth. Moreover, a Liddle, a Flint, a Harclay are at the Wall. How is it that the mountain clans didn’t send any help either? The clans mobilized three thousand men for Stannis in ADwD. We know that news from Mormont had reached the Liddle earlier in ASoS. What happened to Aemon’s ravens in the north?

<snip>

I think a couple things were at play with Ned and fostering. Part of it was that he lost his siblings-- two to death and one to the Wall. I think he wanted his family close. With Jon specifically I think we have his promise to Lyanna, the desire to protect him given his actual father and the tenuous ability of secrets to be kept, and that he wanted Robb and Jon to have the relationship that he and Robert had rather than have that develop with some other family. I also think fostering would have been the only choice as I'm not sure that "squire" is an old gods option though that is probably hair splitting.

Very much like your Valyrian steel observations. The immediate thing that comes to mind on the Blackfyre story is Varys speech to Kevan about ruling (presupposing Aegon is a Blackfyre.) Jon is the one that really has had the life to prepare him to rule in the way Varys advocates. He gets his sword through merit and deed from a non-familial source despite having swords on both sides of his heritage to theoretically inherit. Other than fitting with the way Martin seems to be playing with the hidden heir theme, I'm not sure what to make of it yet. Definitely something worth pondering.

I suspect that the anticipation of Robb's return followed by the Red Wedding is the reason the North sent no aid to the Wall. The occupying Ironborn are a factor as well.

I agree that it is possible to read the raven in the kettle as a completely non-Bloodraven influenced event. I tend to think it is, but so far every Bloodraven interference outside of Bran is left intentionally ambiguous. It would be odd if this one required a Bloodraven explanation.

Hmm, I too remember a candle scene before AFFC something along the lines of an aspirant Maester having to spend a night in vigil with a glass candle to teach them humility - or maybe it is in AFFC...

Mirijam pulled out the Bran reference. The nightly vigil comes from the Pate prologue iirc.

In terms of Luwin's role in sending Jon to the Watch I'm not sure what to think yet. The one idea that occurs to me is the notion of foster fathers. We get Cressen's POV at the opening of CoK and see how important the "adopted" child can be. Perhaps Luwin sees Jon as the neglected one (though Jon hardly lacks for a paternal figure, only a maternal one) or perhaps there is more to Benjen's offhand remark about it being a shame Jon was not his son and this played into Luwin's advice. Maesters and the pull to be foster fathers might be something to look at.

[Mithras]

I agree that it is possible to read the raven in the kettle as a completely non-Bloodraven influenced event. I tend to think it is, but so far every Bloodraven interference outside of Bran is left intentionally ambiguous. It would be odd if this one required a Bloodraven explanation.

So far yes. BR communicates through dreams. Jon already had a couple of dreams. There is no reason to believe that BR played any part in his dreams so far. In ADwD, we will hear BR saying he was a part of Bran's first dream. In the famous dream of Jon with his burning sword on the top of the Wall, there is a clear evidence of BR's presence. We can talk about it later.

[DrunkSister]

How about we broaden it a bit by saying 'old gods influence' instead of 'Bloodraven influence'?

There is no evidence that Bloodraven is the one whispering into Arya's ear during her escape from Red Keep and in Harrenhall, but somebody is whispering instructions.

Similarly, Mormont's raven is in many ways a supernatural creature, and Ghost is frequently acting as if he is receiving orders from old gods.

[Bran Vras]

On the raven, I gave some additional consideration to Bemused's scenario, which I can’t consider plausible.

Note first that the voting takes place in a vault (underground) with a single door and no windows. After the recent events, it’s the dining hall of the Watch and it’s probably never empty except during the night. And Stannis has left guards at the entrance. According to Bemused, the scenario is something like this.

1. Sam, Clydas and Aemon left the kettle open in the dining hall (this is neither specified nor particularly likely).

2. Somehow the raven (a large bird) came unnoticed. That would suppose that the entrance door was left open and that the guards didn’t notice. The possibility of the chimney seems excluded by the fire.

3. After the bird entered the kettle, Sam or Clydas put the lid on without noticing the bird. It’s not specified or particularly likely that the lid had been put late and inattentively on the kettle.

If Martin wanted us to understand that the raven has entered the kettle by himself, it seems to me that there would simply be no mention of a heavy lid and something like an open window in the room.

Let’s explore Bemused’s scenario further from the point of view of whoever inhabited the bird. If the bird entered the vault deliberately, how could it be known in advance to that creature that:

4. The kettle has been left open to make a nest.

5. Nobody would notice the bird’s presence as the lid would be put on.

6. Jon would be proposed as Lord Commander (which happened on the day of the election, when the room was full with men). We have no sign that a spy of Bloodraven has watched Sam’s scheming, or more generally the election. In other words, how could the bird know about the details of the unfolding of the election?

So, the theatrical apparition from the kettle was impossible to plan from the bird’s point of view without an accomplice. If Bloodraven intended to help Jon’s election, assuming he knew Jon’s name had been proposed, a simpler and safer course was to land on his shoulder just when he entered the room.

I can find two difficulties with the notion that Aemon is a single mastermind. But I don’t think there are serious.

First, it doesn’t appear easy to introduce the bird in the room. It seems to me that Aemon has authority over the unfolding of the election, and can come and go as he wishes. In particular, Aemon, Sam and Clydas were alone in the room the night before to do the counting. Sam noted then Aemon’s surprising awareness and dexterity.

Second, is it possible that Aemon taught the raven the trick? Alisser Thorne certainly believes that, since he accuses Sam of having done so. Sam has a little experience with ravens while Aemon is a great maester, who is fully aware of the nature of the bird. The second part of the trick (kettle, kettle, kettle) is less essential I think, but well in line with the behaviour of the raven at other moments of the story.

About the return of the bird to Castle Black, Sam’s visit to the rookery shows the progressive return of the ravens left beyond the Wall.

But still, I am not opposed to Bloodraven’s presence in the bird. I concur with Ragnorak when he insists on the ambiguity of the raven’s behaviour.

However, I have two additional points:

Explaining the raven incident by Bloodraven makes use of a character introduced a good decade after the publication of ASoS. Any solution which uses only elements provided in ASoS is more satisfying.

Mirijam has made a wise suggestion by urging us to be parsimonious in our attribution of Bloodraven’s agency, and not to identify him with the old gods. Otherwise, we can see Bloodraven in every scene in the books, see in every animal his spy or even his agent. It’s important to recognize limits to his power, and uncertainties in his relation to the old gods, the children of the forest, the weirwood net.

@Bemused

I find your assertion thought provoking.

We don't have their POVs and though seeing events from various points of view is fascinating - like opinions , not all perspectives deserve equal weight .

I am not sure what to think of it. However, my point is not to weigh (say) Slynt’s perspective against Jon’s. The point is that Jon fails to realize the validity of Slynt’s perspective (as do some of us, readers). It wouldn’t matter very much if, in the end, that did not contribute to Jon’s downfall.

@Paper Waver

Your re-reading of the Mormont-Tyrion conversation is very interesting. Much if not all the wisdom that Mormont might have on the Long Night etc likely comes from Aemon. Mormont does mention Aemon in the conversation, a sign that he has consulted his maester shortly before talking to Tyrion. Mormont’s discourse to Tyrion is somewhat out of character, especially the part about his dreams and the ominous long summer leading to the Long Night. I could very well see it coming from Aemon. You acutely observed that Aemon is the one who makes astronomical observations and could realize the importance of the end of the long summer. The correspondence with the Conclave will reappear in AFfC (which I think is what you have in mind).

@Ragnorak

There is no knighthood in the north for the followers of the old gods. But the notion of squire has taken root. Ethan Glover was Brandon’s squire for instance.

[Mithras]

“Lord Mormont’s raven likes fruit and corn.”

“He is a rare bird,” the maester said.

"N-not entirely, Your Grace. Most, yes. Some few can be taught to fly between two castles. Such birds are greatly prized. And once in a very great while, we find a raven who can learn the names of three or four or five castles, and fly to each upon command. Birds as clever as that come along only once in a hundred years."

Although Mormont’s Raven was not used as a messenger, I don’t see it likely that Aemon did not pay special attention to the bird. Even only for academic purposes, he should have inspected the bird more detailed. I think we can safely assume that Aemon had a close affinity to Mormont’s Raven.

Later, Sam taught the birds to cry Snow in the Great Ranging (and it spread like a plague, soon all the ravens in the realm will cry Snow, Snow, Snow :P ). I admit that teaching words to the birds out of boredom is something completely normal. However, before this, the only talking raven was Mormont’s Raven. Did Sam witness Aemon teaching words to the bird and wanted to try this on his own?

[bemused]

mirijam ... Well I'd certainly be OK with broadening the terminology to Old Gods Influence ( OGI ?). I confess I often use BR or BR/CoTF or Bran/BR as shorthand for unseen influences allied with the old gods . And I feel that Mormont's raven , like Coldhands and Ghost, may have more of at least limited free agency than the ravens with Coldhands ( or the examples we'll see later in the Theon chapter from TWoW ).

[Lummel]

I remain unconvinced by the proposed involvement of Maester Aemon.

Never work with children or animals. It is a risk. He can train the bird to say snow, but we don't see him training the bird to land on Jon Snow's shoulder. The bird might fly out and say snow before landing on Jon's shoulder or it might fly out, defecate on Jon and cry out Corn! Corn! at which point Slynt wins the election as the hall dissolves in laughter. The only way that this isn't a risk is if either Aemon can and will warg the bird or is in communication with somebody who can.

What is the point of Aemon smuggling the bird into the kettle to influence the election? If he can guess what Sam is doing then he's running the above risk for no reason, since Sam has the election sown up before the watch gathers to vote. What indeed would prompt him to introduce the bird into the proceedings at that point in any case? The trend was running in Slynt's favour, but he was no where near to victory without coming to an accommodation with either Mallister or Pyke.

There is thin line between advising and telling someone what to do and plainly Aemon having been on the wall for a long time is going to be a very influential figure. However if we assume that Aemon has been secretly running the organisation for an unknown period of time then Aemon is not only responsible for decisions that we may consider to be sensible but also for those that are foolish such as the poor state of the defences and the lack of food in the stores for winter. It is best to be careful what we wish for.

Nor do I think that Aemon is talking through Mormont in Tyrion III AGOT - the context here is two men who consider each other to be equals having a postprandial conversation late at night after the consumption of sufficient quantities of alcohol. It would be surprising if Mormont's manner, choice of subjects and mode of expression was the same as when he is talking to his squire during the course of their every day duties. But perhaps that is just me drawing on my own experiences (although admittedly so far I don't have a squire :) )!

[DrunkSister]

How much of food supply was used to burn the stairs during the wildling attack, though?

[Lummel]

Hard to say, there would have been some spoilage from the crates and barrels used to form the barricade, but the stuff burnt was barrels of lard (yummy!) and lamp oil. Given that they are running short already in ADWD we'd have to assume an awful lot of spoilage - like enough to feed four hundred men for several years or more worth. The extra men that Stannis brought with him may have eaten through a year's worth of stores if they were at the Wall for long enough but even so there was either an immense amount of destruction of preserved food stuffs or just not enough in the first place.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

on Jon not being sent to be fostered elsewhere -

I think Ned wanted to keep a very close eye on Jon, and didn't want to risk having questions raised about his mother. Jon's very presence at another castle would naturally re-incite curiosity about his parentage, and Ned has been diligent about squelching rumors pertaining to Jon. It's even stranger that Robb was never sent to be fostered elsewhere, since that would be an honor many lords would compete for. Both Ned and his brother Brandon were fostered away from Winterfell. I've always presumed that Ned kept Robb at Winterfell as cover for Jon; if he let Robb go away, Catelyn would insist that Jon be sent away also.

on the raven -

I frankly can't imagine how that particular raven could have so much knowledge and be able to make so many pertinent comments (King. Burn. and all the others) without being warged by someone. I also think it might be very difficult for a blind man to be able to covertly smuggle the raven into the kettle while being confident about not being observed (in spite of his very sensitive hearing that Bran Vras pointed out). I suspect we will never have an answer to this question.

on Winterfell -

Something that has always bugged me about "There must always be a Stark in Winterfell" is, well, what are the consequences if the dictum is violated? Did Bran and Rickon precipitate some sort of disaster by leaving for just a short time while executing their false escape? Or by leaving later? Off topic for this thread, of course, but since the phrase came up...

On Aemon, the Citadel, the PtwP, and the Targs

We have several prophecies and legends floating around. Azor Ahai is a 5000 year old eastern legend. AAR is a prophecy about his successor. The Last Hero is an ancient legend. (There is no LH2 prophecy that we've heard.) And then there's the PtwP. It's mentioned by Aemon, Rhaegar (In Dany's HotU vision) and Marwyn. When Aemon asked Mel about the PtwP, and Mel immediately pointed to Stannis (her presumed AAR), I got the distinct feeling that she had never heard of the PtwP, and incorrectly assumed Aemon was referring to the AAR prophecy. Is that what everyone else thinks, or am I off base here?

There's been a few mentions in the tPatQ thread about the Targs being A Family On A Mission, that the prophecy that saved them from the Doom being more far reaching then just escaping the Fall of Valyria. A few members of the Targ dynasty seem to be working toward a long term goal that might very well be the defeat of the Others in the Long Night 2. Those would include Aemon I, Alysanne, Daemon the UberTarg, BR, Aerys I, and Rhaegar. Aemon the Maester certainly seems to be one of them. If he's being politically devious, I think his long term goals are driven by the PtwP prophecy.

Luwin seems to be a product of the Citadel's conventional wisdom, although he may have his doubts. The Conclave would never have sent him to Winterfell if he was a Marwyn-esque independent thinker. Did he guess Jon's parentage? Dunno.

[Mithras]

When Aemon asked Mel about the PtwP, and Mel immediately pointed to Stannis (her presumed AAR), I got the distinct feeling that she had never heard of the PtwP, and incorrectly assumed Aemon was referring to the AAR prophecy. Is that what everyone else thinks, or am I off base here?

Before coming to the Wall, Mel calls Stannis as tPtwP several times.

[bemused]

Bran Vras ... re: points of view not all being of equal value , I meant , in general, that when we don't have a written point of view for a character , I'm ( personally ) leery of accepting what they put out as their point of view as being honest , or complete. For example , Littlefinger , or Roose Bolton , among others ... or closer to this topic , Alliser Thorne.

As to opinions not being of equal weight , that too was a generality . I was thinking ,as an example, of opposing views on climate change, where the pro voice may be founded on science while the con voice may rely on religious belief or financial greed. And again, this is in relation to characters' opinions ... though I have run across some posters ( trolls ) that cause me to roll my eyes... :D

On reading that you weren't sure how to take it , I worried that you might think I was casting aspersions on your opinions.( We have locked horns in the past )... If so , please know - that was not my intention. I know that our respective speculations often lead us in different directions , but though I frequently can't agree with the destinations you reach , I fully respect the process by which you reach them and certainly respect that you can apparently explain them in more than one language ... ( if I'm not mistaken ?)

On topic , I'm not sure I think Slynt's opinions do play much part in Jon's "downfall" ( I'm waiting to see how far Jon has actually fallen ). I think Slynt's connection to Tywin is much more important than anything he says . That's what other characters continually allude to , not his charges against Jon .. Thorne's purported views carry a bit more weight, but only because there are others who ( for their own reasons ) are susceptible to his manipulations. ( We'll discuss this later , I'm sure. :) )...We can't be certain how credible Stannis really thinks Thorne and Slynt's complaints are ( he's pretty shrewd ) but I don't think he much cares , being one to whom the end justifies the means , himself... At this point , he's disgruntled at Jon's refusal .

Lummel's views on Maester Aemon have saved me a lot of typing ... In playing a long game one has to have the means to predict and react to unforeseen developments ... and I don't see Aemon having that to the degree he would need, or he would surely have moved to save a lot of grief.

The scenario I laid out for the raven is just one possibility off the top of my head - there could well be others by which the raven could get into the kettle. We don't have a view of what went on in the " caverous vault " between the two votes.( Did no-one have breakfast ?) ... We don't know when the lid was replaced , or by whom... I am not one who is known for tidying as I go , so no, I would not assume that the lid would necessarily be replaced immediately . It may have been , or not. ( You , OTOH, may be much more orderly than me.) ... We know that the kettle was large and heavy enough that it was "dragged" from the kitchen by two men and it takes both Sam and Clydas to tip it out before Aemon ... And though Aemon displays dexterity in sorting what's on the table before him , here we see him when Jon returns to CB.. " He moved slowly, one spotted hand on Clydas’s arm as he shuffled forward with small careful steps. "... I definitely think he would need an accomplice . As has been pointed out , Sam's manipulation of Mallister and Pyke had already probably done enough . All that was really needed was Jon's nomination.

In my own experience , I've had two occasions ( years apart ) where a creature appeared mysteriously in my house - one a starling , one a squirrel ( both, as far as I know, un-warged ). ;) In hindsight ,they obviously came in unnoticed while the doors and windows were open. The house was then closed up while I went out about my business, and I only discovered them on my return. (My own locked room mysteries) Of course , this predisposes me to think it's quite possible the raven ( which seems to act with intention ) could have got into the kettle on it's own . Exactly how , remains to be seen and may never be known.

ETA: If the air needed clearing , I hope this does the trick.

[Bran Vras]

Never work with children or animals. It is a risk. He can train the bird to say snow, but we don't see him training the bird to land on Jon Snow's shoulder. The bird might fly out and say snow before landing on Jon's shoulder or it might fly out, defecate on Jon and cry out Corn! Corn! at which point Slynt wins the election as the hall dissolves in laughter. The only way that this isn't a risk is if either Aemon can and will warg the bird or is in communication with somebody who can.

What is the point of Aemon smuggling the bird into the kettle to influence the election? If he can guess what Sam is doing then he's running the above risk for no reason, since Sam has the election sown up before the watch gathers to vote. What indeed would prompt him to introduce the bird into the proceedings at that point in any case? The trend was running in Slynt's favour, but he was no where near to victory without coming to an accommodation with either Mallister or Pyke.

Since Thorne's and Slynt's discomfit faces are proof that the raven had an effect on the election, I am not certain to understand the question. It's true that electoral arithmetic was already much in Jon's favor after the rallying of Mallister and Pyke. However, if Aemon shouldn't bother why should the raven? Did I miss something?

Any human action has an uncertain outcome. In this world, only Winter is certain. Circus artists can reasonably count on the obedience of theirs animals – even birds sometimes. (Prestidigitators work with doves – but the Night’s Watch prefers ravens.) Aemon has been familiar with Mormont’s bird for a long time. So I have no problem crediting him with the audacity to try the ploy, and I would even venture that Mallister and Pyke's immediate understanding that Sam is Aemon's envoy points to the notion that Aemon has already meddled with elections in the past.

There is no question that Mormont’s raven is a special bird who can do special things, and is inhabited by a child of the forest, if not by a greenseer. So in all scenarios, this specialness has to play a role. To discuss further whether Aemon could have arranged the trick by himself, consider the white ravens (*) of Oldtown. Those birds name Pate at first sight. In Archmaester Walgrave we can see that the knowledge of ravens is a deep subject at the Citadel. Like Walgrave's birds with Pate, Mormont’s raven could identify the "Snow" in the room. The raven had been taught Snow, Snow, Snow and naturally went to Snow – a simple trick after all. Ultimately, we are left to ourselves to decide if Aemon can have arranged this.

(*) The white ravens seem pretty much the equals of Mormont's raven, at least as far as size, speech and cognitive abilities are concerned. The behaviour of the raven that announced autumn in the prologue of ACoK seems a page taken from Mormont's book. Even Walgrave's expectation of being eventually eaten by his birds finds a counterpart in Mormont's dead face pecked by his bird. (Not all these birds are inhabited by Bloodraven. So why would Mormont's raven necessarily be?)

However, I have attempted to make a point in my previous post which I don't see as disputable: it’s not credible to attribute the episode solely to Bloodraven’s agency. The material circumstances of the election seem to run counter to that: Bloodraven had no eyes to see that Jon’s name had been put on the ballot unless he had a spy in Aemon’s entourage. Without this knowledge, what is the point of hiding in the kettle? Unless you imbue the raven with prescience or omniscience, and the ability to open doors and lift heavy iron lids, there is no way to avoid a human intervention. It seems to me that GRRM carefully gave us the specific details about confinement for a good reason.

I can put it in another way: the powers of a greenseer aren’t sufficient to watch and much control the unfolding of the election, while Aemon had control over everything: Sam going to Mallister and Pyke, the electoral process, the kettle, naming Jon candidate through Sam and Edd, the familiarity with Mormont’s raven, the capacity to recover the bird in the rookery; only the fact that he could teach the bird the trick can be perhaps put in doubt.

There is thin line between advising and telling someone what to do and plainly Aemon having been on the wall for a long time is going to be a very influential figure. However if we assume that Aemon has been secretly running the organisation for an unknown period of time then Aemon is not only responsible for decisions that we may consider to be sensible but also for those that are foolish such as the poor state of the defences and the lack of food in the stores for winter. It is best to be careful what we wish for.

Isn't the food problem created by the arrival of Stannis' army and the necessity to feed the wildling prisoners? In any case, it's true that the governance of the Watch has been unsatisfactory for a few decades at least. Can we blame the Lord Commander and his advisor for the slow decline? Perhaps not. But both Aemon and Mormont are responsible for the disaster that the Great Ranging has been though. Indeed, Aemon was actively involved in the preparation (maps, and ravens).

Aemon and Jon’s desertion

As it happens, there is a telling illustration of the Aemon/Mormont relationship. A conversation that followed Jon’s desertion (Jon IX, AGoT).

Jon’s throat was dry. “You know?”

“Know, “ the raven echoed from Mormont’s shoulder. “Know.

The Old Bear snorted. “Do you think they chose me Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch because I’m dumb as a stump, Snow? Aemon told me you’d go. I told him you’d be back. I know my men... and my boys too. Honor set you on the kingsroad... and honor brought you back.”

“My friends brought me back,” Jon said.

“Did I say it was your honor?” Mormont inspected his plate.

“They killed my father. Did you expect me to do nothing?”

“If truth be told, we expected you to do just as you did.” Mormont tried a plum, spit out the pit.

“I ordered a watch kept over you., You were seen leaving. If your brothers had not fetched you back, you would have been taken along the way, and not by friends. Unless you have a horse with wings like a raven. Do you?”

Mormont boasts of being clever and that he predicted that Jon would renounce the desertion. In effect, the story is clear: the warning came from Aemon. Otherwise, Jon would have been eventually arrested and in all likehood executed. How Mormont could claim having done anything remarkable? He simply reacted to Aemon’s alarm by commanding Jon’s friends to watch him. In my opinion, Aemon comes out as the one who prevented Jon’s desertion (with Ghost’s complicity, as Paper Waver pointed upthread). He might have saved Jon’s life in this occasion. All very quietly and efficiently.

In addition to Aemon’s quiet influence over Mormont, the episode is another indication that Jon was watched benevolently by Aemon – of course he had already the "love is the bane of duty" lecture – and Mormont's boast shows that he is quick to consider as his policies what comes out of his maester's advice.

(It has been pointed out upthread by Ragnorak and others that it's all natural that a son of Winterfell would be given special consideration at the Wall. Nothing odd here. But Aemon's role stands out.)

@Bemused. Don't worry. I never thought of taking this personally. What disturbed me is that you stated as a fact that not all perspective deserve equal weight. I wouldn’t dare to put it as more than a rhetorical question – which might be a central one in view of GRRM’s narrative stance. I am not sure I would enjoy entering such a debate though.

About languages: I confess that the dialect employed for communication in this forum is not the language I speak everyday, and that I feel awkward expressing myself so poorly here and elsewhere – surely, I would do better in my mother tongue. But, to paraphrase a famous blunder, if English was good enough for GRRM, it's good enough for me.

[bemused]

I think with all the hints at some unseen influence prior to ASoS ( notably the 3 eyed raven, later revealed to be Bloodraven ) , it would be unwise to ignore his possible presence or agency , even if he's not yet been introduced. ( GRRM certainly conceived him long before the publishing date of ADWD) .... I, for one , can't ignore that this is a re-read , and part of whatever understanding we now have is due to the advantage of hindsight, not only the result of a more careful reading.

I had been going to add that last as an edit to my previous post , but my connection was slow then. Now, I'd like to expand a bit.

Sam taught the ravens in the rookery to say snow through repetition. No-one taught Mormont's raven as far as we know. We never see Mormont's bird in the rookery. We never see it go to Aemon... So to imagine Aemon trained the raven to say Snow ( let alone Jon Snow) and train it to fly to Jon's shoulder , seems to require a much greater flight of imagination than to imagine that the bird is acting on the same impulses it always has... The white ravens are reportedly very intelligent and must hear Walgrave say Pate all the time , but I doubt he taught them. He's very feeble and forgetful.

I also think it's a big leap to use that imagined manipulation by Aemon to then assume he also manipulated Mormont's election and possibly Qorgyle's as well. We see and hear nothing of their elections . No grumblings , not a hint of scandal . The one thing we hear is that Mormont rose quickly in the watch. I prefer to think he was elected as a result of his own stature and merit. That Mallister and Pyke were Mormont's main opponents at the time and that Aemon and Sam still think either one would make an adequate LC , argues against any motive for manipulation in Mormont and Qorgyle's cases.

When you come to think of it, the fact that the raven's intervention may not even have been necessary ,with both Pyke and Mallister on board, argues against any connection between Aemon and the bird .( For me ,at least.) ...For the sake of argument , accept for a moment that the bird is influenced by BR or some OGI. Keep in mind that with the recent battle and the extra garbage generated by Stannis' army , there would be no shortage of wild ravens about ... and keep in mind that Ghost and the raven appear at roughly the same time.

Birds have very keen eyesight and the Raven , easily passing for a wild bird , could have observed Sam's comings and goings ... but of course , would not have been able to hear what was said. Aemon is at least motivated to not want to see Slynt elected, thinks either Pyke or Mallister would be OK and perhaps ideally , would like to see Jon elected . Bloodraven ( or some OGI ) would definitely want to see Jon elected. ... So we could have two separate attempts at influencing the outcome at work , both with the same focus. Aemon relying on Sam and hoping for the best ... BR/OGI relying on the sudden appearance of the bird and general superstition among the men ... also hoping for the best.

BTW Bran , I mean that the POV's that GRRM has written deserve more weight than the ones we have to imagine, because he has not written them (yet).. we can't be sure of those characters' sincerity or honesty , or trust their apparent motivations.

[Lummel]

...Something that has always bugged me about "There must always be a Stark in Winterfell" is, well, what are the consequences if the dictum is violated? Did Bran and Rickon precipitate some sort of disaster by leaving for just a short time while executing their false escape? Or by leaving later? Off topic for this thread, of course, but since the phrase came up...

True, if it is anything more than a family mantra is mysterious. So far at least there have been no earthquakes, volcanoes or six legged sheep...

...In my own experience , I've had two occasions ( years apart ) where a creature appeared mysteriously in my house - one a starling , one a squirrel ( both, as far as I know, un-warged )...

so you hope! :ninja:

...I can put it in another way: the powers of a greenseer aren’t sufficient to watch and much control the unfolding of the election, while Aemon had control over everything: Sam going to Mallister and Pyke, the electoral process, the kettle, naming Jon candidate through Sam and Edd, the familiarity with Mormont’s raven, the capacity to recover the bird in the rookery; only the fact that he could teach the bird the trick can be perhaps put in doubt...

Slynt and Thorne don't know about Sam's activities - they were too busy with their own plotting - so for them the raven is the only significant factor. But we know that Sam has already got a two-thirds majority by reaching agreement with Malister and Pyke.

I agree that ravens can be trained, but in this case we have to imagine Aemon making a Jon mannequin which has some of Jon's clothes or something less that smells like him perhaps and training the bird with food to land on his shoulder and cry out snow, snow for Aemon to be confident that the raven would work in his favour and not do something like land on Yarwyck's shoulder that would produce an undesired outcome - either that or Aemon has to know that the bird is warged and will act in a beneficial manner or he has to be capable of warging it himself. All of which raise new complexities. Having Aemon involved solves one problem (how did the raven get in the kettle) but at the cost of opening up new problems.

Bloodraven, old gods, or greenseer in the bird are at least self-sufficient explanations . ie there is something that is aware that will be an election (because it was there when Mormont died), there is something that is aware of Jon and has already been intimately involved with his family, there is something that is present at Castle Black and would have been long familiar with Mallister and Pyke and therefore would have know that only a compromise candidate who could take their votes could get at least the necessary 2/3rds of the votes. Even unwarged Ravens are intelligent birds and used to watching and making use of human behaviour to gain food - being present in the kitchen and sneaking into the kettle to peck out any titbits is feasible to my mind for a bird that will make use of traffic lights to place nuts in the path of cars!

It maybe that the bird over heard, or spied on the conversation between Sam and Dolorous Edd or maybe the bird had a different intention - to land on Jon's shoulder to show that they should be choosing him as a candidate - in which case it just got lucky.

I completely agree that Aemon is looking out for Jon by the time he deserts, Jon brings himself to Aemon's attention already in Jon V AGOT after all, and surely Aemon would tell Mormont that he thought Jon would try to escape - this is a military organisation (more or less even if not quite the Foreign Legion), that would be his duty even if he wasn't a maester and sworn to serve and advise. But it's a leap to moving from that to assuming that he is secretly running the organisation, particularly when it is his job to provide guidance and support.

Again I'm concerned about how Aemon pulling the strings fits with the Clean hands/dirty hands parable he offers in Jon VIII. Aemon acting secretly in planting the raven to influence the election puts him in the clean hands camp - a backroom manipulator - and suddenly nothing he says can be read at face value! "Ten days is not unduly long. There was once a choosing that lasted near two years, some seven hundred votes. The brothers will come to a decision in their own time" he says to Sam in Sam IV ASOS all the while secretly planning to force a decision! This is a problematic reading I feel - is even Varys so blatant in misleading people?

[Bran Vras]

I understand that Lummel questions the coherence of Aemon’s character. I am not sure to have the answer. Our information might be far from complete. Much of Sam's journey in AFfC is about adding bits to his story. And we will have the future adventures of Dunk and Egg, including perhaps one on the Great Council of 233, a central event of Aemon's life.

I hope it is not tedious that I summarize once more, but I can’t understand why involving Aemon to explain the raven’s trick would be unneeded complication.

Aemon has a history of favouring Jon’s career at the Watch. We know that he wanted Jon to be elected and that he was not unwilling to cross the line as the arbiter of the election. He has been extraordinarily attentive during the election despite his disability and was aware of the forces in presence down to the man. He incited Sam, who would not have taken the initiative by himself, to arrange the Mallister-Pyke coalition. It seems logical that Aemon prepared actively Sam to meet Mallister and Pyke (see how clueless were Jon’s friends in Samwell IV on how to organize such a coalition, and how easily Sam succeeded, without any personal knowledge of either of these two men). Mallister and Pyke seemed to take Aemon’s meddling for granted.

In short, Aemon is fully behind Jon’s election, even before we begin to discuss the raven episode, which is the icing on the cake.

By contrast, involving an agency independent from Aemon is unneeded complication. Indeed, how could (whoever inhabits) the raven have planned to make Jon Commander of the Watch? How could this creature have any control over the Mallister-Pyke coalition and putting Jon’s name on the ballot? Anyway you take it, the raven is bound to play an auxiliary role and to be no more than Aemon’s agent (or ally, if you like).

In my view, the remaining uncertainties concern the nature of the creature that inhabits the raven, the extent of Aemon’s knowledge of this, and what remains of the connection between Aemon and Bloodraven.

I repeat that I am open to the notion that Bloodraven inhabits Mormont’s bird. It might even be that Aemon is aware of that. For those willing to accept metaphorical arguments (I am prudent on this): the raven waiting at the bottom the dark kettle could represent Bloodraven’s situation in the depths of the Earth. It’s up to every one of us to judge whether the analogy is significant.

BTW Bran , I mean that the POV's that GRRM has written deserve more weight than the ones we have to imagine, because he has not written them (yet).. we can't be sure of those characters' sincerity or honesty , or trust their apparent motivations.

As it happens, bemused, I think we need to question the motivations of characters even when we have access to their thoughts, otherwise we run the risk of being contaminated by their bias. That applies to Jon Snow as well. (Though Jon appears honest when he considers Stannis’ offer.) Is the view of a person really clearer from the inside than from the outside?

[Mithras]

“Aye,” said Cotter Pyke. “And you can start by telling those king’s men that it’s done, and we want our bloody supper.”

“Supper,” screamed the raven. “Supper, supper.”

Note that after the election, we have A Feast for Crows (both the supper and the book). Feast and Dance were initially planned as a single book. I bet the original name of this book was AFfC. GRRM is preparing Dany vs. fAegon conflict as the second Dance of Dragons but we could not have this in ADwD, where by name it should have been.

ETA: In Jon's desertion, Aemon took necessary precauitons but Ghost "betraying" Jon's position to his brothers came as a bonus. Mormont's Raven's meddling in the election can be a similar bonus from BR/Old Gods, unknown to Aemon. Or both these cases maybe a cooperation of Aemon and BR. I am not sure.

ETA 2:

“Here,” he called. The raven spread its wings, leapt into the air, and flapped noisily across the room to land on the table beside him.

“I’ll see to your breakfast now,” Pylos announced. Cressen nodded. “This is the Lady Shireen,” he told the raven. The bird bobbed its pale head up and down, as if it were bowing. “Lady,” it croaked. “Lady.”

The child’s mouth gaped open. “It talks!”

“A few words. As I said, they are clever, these birds.”

We know that Aemon was aware of the intelligence and rarity of Mormont's Raven. He was like a white raven in black feathers. I think the above scene give us a very good clue about what might have happened. Aemon need not know that the bird is inhabitated by someone. I think he tried to teach the Raven what he needed to do after popping out from the kettle. The Raven turned out to be more than willing and capable for the job.

In fact, above scene includes all the necessary traits expected from Mormont's Raven in the election.

1) White Raven perched on the exact spot where he was summoned.

2) He identified different humans.

3) He understood what the old maester was talking about.

4) He said the proper word required in a conversation between the humans.

5) He showed a display of respect (bowing) similar to later Wun Wun.

What else do we need in Jon's election? Further mockery of Thorne maybe a bonus though :D

ETA 3: White ravens and the black ravens fight like Dornishmen and Marchers according to Sarella. What is this strange feud between them?

[bemused]

I think we've reached the point of needing to agree to disagree on the raven. Some feel it's needless complication to bring Bloodraven or old gods influence into it , some feel it's needless complication to imagine Aemon somehow coralled the bird , schooled it ,etc.,etc.- in spite of his physical limitations.

We simply have to wait for more information.

So far , I see no evidence of current communication between Aemon and Bloodraven , except ,perhaps ,by way of Bloodraven's "dreamwalking" .. which has it's own peculiar limitations. ( But I stress "so far". )

The white ravens are themselves a mystery , and I hope Sam ( or someone ) might shed a bit more light on them in future books. It remains to be seen why their behaviour is so similar to that of Mormont's raven.

Bran .. I didn't say written POVs should be taken at face value. Certainly , every character deserves our scrutiny. But when we have their written POV , we are a bit more informed about what moves them, whether or not we think they are right or wise. ( e.g. we know Cersei is genuinely paranoid about Tyrion and does believe he killed Joffrey , quite apart from the fact that she has always been willing to hurt him , verbally or otherwise.)

This came up over Stannis saying that there had been complaints about the manner of the election and he couldn't say the complainants didn't have a case. ( Rough paraphrase). Since we have no POV for Stannis, Thorne , Slynt or Marsh , we don't actually know the exact nature of the complaint , or if T,S,and M were the only complainants ( though I think it's safe to assume they were all included ). We only know how the election went down as Jon experienced it , and what efforts Sam made on his behalf ... We do know that Thorne, for one, is prone to making slanderous exaggerations , but not whether he actually believes even half of them .( I doubt Stannis would take anything Slynt said seriously. )

We don't know if Stannis really thought they had much of a case , because Stannis has been known to throw out barbed remarks when things are not going precisely as he wished. ( He can be a bit petulant at times ) We do know he was mightily displeased by Jon's refusal of his offer , and seldom misses a chance to register it.

We are more informed when we have a written POV , though it doesn't necessarily make the character any better or worse.

ETA; I have another objection to attributing Sam's actions solely to Aemon's supposed instructions - it robs Sam of his intelligence. Sam is very observant and intelligent and both Mallister and Pyke give him clues as to how to proceed in their conversations. One of my favourites comes in his first visit to Mallister .

Sam was present when this occurred.... The suggestion outraged some of the others. “Do you want the king to wipe our arses for us too?” said Cotter Pyke angrily.

..but Mallister says... Blood, birth, and training have fitted me to deal with kings. Pyke... well, did you hear him this morning, asking if His Grace would wipe his bottom?

... I think Sam is smart enough to notice the discrepancy, to begin to see the lay of the land and to be able to think of a way to deal with it on his own. .. As he was able to reconcile Jon to being allocated as a steward , way back when. He was able to see the implied advantage ,even though he, too, must have assumed Jon would be a ranger.

[Ragnorak]

Aemon and the Raven

I'm on board with the potential for a human actor in Ravengate. Martin has been intentionally ambiguous with magic. Rereading the various Stark POVs there are a lot of potential Bloodraven drops once you know he's there to look for. I think in the Arya reread there was at least one a chapter with some being far more obvious and others a bit more subtle or questionable. When Sansa goes to meet Dontos in the godswood for the first time she encounters a cat. One could place a great deal of importance on the theoretical role the cat might have played, see it simply as a warged observer, or an ordinary cat. It still works for the story. I think this ambiguity is intentional. Magic is subtle because this fantasy story is about characters and we don't want their problems to vanish in a cabinet or their solutions to be pulled out of a hat.

Sam got Jon the votes so it isn't as if the magical raven swayed the election. Would there have been the avalanche of votes for Jon we see described without the raven? Maybe not, but Sam got him the two-thirds needed to win through honest old fashioned political lying! One could read the passage as Bloodraven warging a raven to set the tone as Jon is elected LC which is not a small thing, but it never rises to the level of a magical operator stealing the election for Jon-- that's done by our POV character Sam. This balance isn't an easy thing to accomplish as a writer. Martin does it exceptionally well because we have an event where our characters achieve the outcome through completely mundane and non-magical means yet we still have the magical figure in the background who can be seen as extraordinarily influential without stepping on our characters' struggles.

I suspect by the end of the series we'll be able to make some more involved assessments about this. LF directly plays people and tends to play shorter term games. He's only long term in the sense that he believes he can survive in chaos longer than anyone else. Varys is more removed and long term. Varys probably never had to actively manipulate Bywater. He matched Tyrion with a Gold Cloak commander to produce predictable results. If Varys needed gold cloaks to do something he could tweak Tyrion and have a perfectly knowable response from Bywater. Bloodraven is even more removed than a Varys. His manipulations are more subtle and his spy network is far more complete. I imagine that this spectrum of LF, Varys, Bloodraven will be worth taking a much closer look at once we see the fates of LF and Varys. I would expect to be able to infer some authorial commentary on the game of thrones from the outcomes. Until that commentary becomes more clear I think we're supposed to have a mundane explanation for all our possible magical interferences.

If Aegon is a Blackfyre that offers a great deal of potential in contrasting Varys and Bloodraven. Tze has a great post that is buried in Butterbumps Varys/LF thread comparing Varys and Bloodraven. Bloodraven has historically led the Targaryen cause against the Blackfyres and an Aegon Blackfyre could set up a contrast between Varys the backer of Aegon and Bloodraven the backer of Jon. Varys speech to Kevan in the epilogue does seem to apply a good deal more to Jon than Aegon. It is hard to do anything but speculate here, but we do have a foundation for a comparison between Varys orchestrating Aegon's path to leadership and Bloodraven orchestrating Jon's. What we make of that depends on an outcome that we haven't seen yet. Bloodraven is involved in far more than just Jon's life too, but once we've seen the events unfold this raven in the pot will be a very telling incident.

As for Aemon's role I'm fine with a spectrum of interference but it has to be bounded by the Raven and Dove speech. Assuming Aemon does nothing would be akin to acting like Baelor the Blessed with regard to his maester's oath and the Nights Watch prefers ravens. Take that too far and you run into the issue Lummel pointed out where he starts to behave like our "clean hands" characters who won't own responsibility for their actions. I'm comfortable with Aemon pushing the limits of his oath in much the same way we see Jon do over the course of Dance. Fostering Sam's manipulative political skills is part of educating his apprentice. How far can Aemon "educate" Sam before he becomes a co-conspirator? I don't have the answer but I would imagine Aemon helped to a degree but had some line he tried not to cross. Did he have a "words are not swords-- swords are swords" moment like Jon did with Stannis? I don't know. Jon's internal oath debates are the best parallel example I can come up with.

[Ser Pollo Loco]

Aemon and the Raven

I'm on board with the potential for a human actor in Ravengate. Martin has been intentionally ambiguous with magic. Rereading the various Stark POVs there are a lot of potential Bloodraven drops once you know he's there to look for. I think in the Arya reread there was at least one a chapter with some being far more obvious and others a bit more subtle or questionable. When Sansa goes to meet Dontos in the godswood for the first time she encounters a cat. One could place a great deal of importance on the theoretical role the cat might have played, see it simply as a warged observer, or an ordinary cat. It still works for the story. I think this ambiguity is intentional. Magic is subtle because this fantasy story is about characters and we don't want their problems to vanish in a cabinet or their solutions to be pulled out of a hat.

I suspect by the end of the series we'll be able to make some more involved assessments about this. LF directly plays people and tends to play shorter term games. He's only long term in the sense that he believes he can survive in chaos longer than anyone else. Varys is more removed and long term. Varys probably never had to actively manipulate Bywater. He matched Tyrion with a Gold Cloak commander to produce predictable results. If Varys needed gold cloaks to do something he could tweak Tyrion and have a perfectly knowable response from Bywater. Bloodraven is even more removed than a Varys. His manipulations are more subtle and his spy network is far more complete. I imagine that this spectrum of LF, Varys, Bloodraven will be worth taking a much closer look at once we see the fates of LF and Varys. I would expect to be able to infer some authorial commentary on the game of thrones from the outcomes. Until that commentary becomes more clear I think we're supposed to have a mundane explanation for all our possible magical interferences.

1) Sansa out right says the Gods wood has a thousand eyes in that chapter or one near it

2) I wonder how active Bloodraven/Bran will be in the last two books, I'm also curious if the Ghost "howling" = instant access to the network