The Jon Snow ReRead Project! Part 4! (FFC-DwD)

[butterbumps!]

I kind of wanted to give everyone (and myself, lol) an opportunity to wrap this up a little before I posted Jon IV, so please forgive my (perhaps indulgent) delay on this. I'll post the next chapter later today.

If Jon and Stannis were on the same page three chapters ago then yes everything would be much simpler - we saw in Jon XI that the two come to agreement but come to it with different assumptions in mind, they really needed to explain their positions much more fully then but who would explain themselves fully to Stannis who offers up Winterfell and insults The Ned in the same breath? To whom does that sullen bastard open himself up to anyway?

So that kind of a situation seems to me as much as a fantasy as Renly and Stannis making common cause. In principle it makes sense but the dynamics of the characters make it impossible.

hmm. I might have gotten a little carried away with this. I think what I proposed is the sort of thing that belongs in a "If the characters were reasonable" thread-- I agree that it's just not a productive hypothetical to criticize anyone for not having taken.

If I can be a little transparent about my "agenda" for a moment, I'm highly invested in nailing down Stannis and Jon's respective endgames and how they're strategizing how to get there.

I'm having some trouble expressing the way I'm trying to use this hypothetical, which wasn't meant to merely criticize. My intention in presenting it has more to do with trying to figure out some of the core aims of these characters, and their subsequent strategies in getting there, which we're going to see unfold in the next chapters.

Specifically, how Jon and Stannis understand each other's role is the most nebulous to me. I think it's safe to say that Stannis' endgame is to be king, the LN is the way he believes he will be recognized as king, and he's partaking in the LN because he's the true king. So it's an almost circular rationale. I think it's safe to understand Jon's endgame as defeating the LN and making it through winter.

Now, this is where things get very muddled for me. To what extent does Jon believe the political side of Stannis' campaign is critical for surviving and defeating the LN? From Jon's POV, it doesn't seem as though Jon's confident in Stannis' LN powers as some self-evident weapon, and though he recognizes that Stannis is invested in defeating the real enemy, it appears that he's conceiving of Stannis as a purely political organization. So given that Jon's seeing Stannis as a political body, how is Jon understanding Stannis as a benefit to the Watch? Is the idea that Jon believes a unified North is critical to surviving winter at this point, and that Stannis' attacking the Boltons is the way to implement order that can then be used to augment the defense against the LN?

Or is Jon's rationale that because Stannis showed up at the Wall, the Wall has now become a political target, so working around whatever political aims Stannis has to ensure his victory is necessary? In this scenario, the plan to rally the North is not something that Jon would see as critical to the defense of the North against winter, but rather, an aim of Stannis that Jon must take as a given (and Stannis' presence causing the Watch to be "marked" as traitorous, which means they have enemies they hadn't before), and since Stannis has to win, Jon's trying to make that happen.

Conversely, what is Stannis thinking about all this? I definitely realize that AA-true king are inherently linked in his mind, but what I'm trying to pinpoint is whether a campaign to rally the North is because he believes their support is critical to defending against the LN, or because he's the "true king," and that this is what they're supposed to do?

[Lummel]

...the NW expects its members to act like they are no-one while they fully retain their (emotional) ties to their past. Their vows are a lot like a monastic order, but they are supposed to keep them without the help or "help" of spiritual guidance and faith (or else, brainwashing). I believe they are unsustainable. I believe that the reason that this problem has not been too much exposed yet is the very reason of the NW decline: that for most of its members, the choice was not between a life or the Watch, it was the Watch or death.

Hmm, maybe the problem why isn't discipline more of an issue? Was Mormont the first Lord Commander to be murdered for trying to impose order?

Well by negative prism I mean Jon's POV with all of its allusions to the "true king" notion and his sympathy for Mance and the Wildlings. These aren't puppy eating slave owning bastards from Essos. We've met these people and are inclined to like them and have met Mance personally. This is a rather ignoble death for the free spirited adventurer who scaled the Wall to infiltrate Robert's Winterfell feast. The absence of dignity left to the Wildlings being let through is very off putting to most readers. Wildlings being let through the Wall and not ravaging the North is generally a good thing, but not like this. I think it would be seen as a much more merciful gesture-- food, shelter, life-- to those who attacked a King's realm, seen from almost any other POV. I think even Jon prior to LC would see this in a more sympathetic light than he does as LC. Other POVs would see some share of Tyrion's life being filled with possibilities while Jon sees more of MMD's what is life worth when all the rest is gone. There are positive things to see in Stannis here but we're given the POV least able to appreciate them.

What about Nymeria? Huge numbers of refugees flooded Dorne not unlike the Wildlings here want to flood the North. Nymeria sealed her people to Dorne with her own marriage as Stannis seeks to seal the Wildlings to his Kingdom with a marriage to Val. For the most part Nymeria's people converted to the religion of the new land and its ruler. There are differences too, but Nymeria is a successful example of what Stannis is trying to do here. Burning the ships seems a bit of an extreme leadership choice. How does that compare or differ from Stannis here? Lots has to be inferred because we don't know but I can't imagine her people we're welcomed with open arms on day one. There must have been Bowen Marshes who wanted to build ships and send them home. I think Jon's path is closer to Nymeria's success story but I wonder how "extreme" Stannis really is compared to the choices made back then. Pure questions here as I'm not sure how to compare Stannis to this past event. Maybe it will make for a better comparison when Jon negotiates with Tormund and there isn't much Stannis material here...

I see, I'm with you now. Yes, the negative prism is deliberate. We're being moved on from Davos' vision of Stannis to something much more critical. I don't know about the Nymeria comparison. That is there I suppose when the figures of the Seven are burnt on Dragonstone, in Jon III Stannis isn't committing his own people to his fate but an alien one, as though Nymeria turned up and burnt not her ships but the gods of Dorne. Stannis is trying to impose an absolute breach with the past on the Wildlings (with limited success as we see in Jon V). It fits in with the Last of the Giants theme of the death of peoples and the passing of ways of life.

...Specifically, how Jon and Stannis understand each other's role is the most nebulous to me. I think it's safe to say that Stannis' endgame is to be king, the LN is the way he believes he will be recognized as king, and he's partaking in the LN because he's the true king. So it's an almost circular rationale. I think it's safe to understand Jon's endgame as defeating the LN and making it through winter...

Does Jon even believe in the Long Night or that this is what Westeros is facing? Stannis presumably believes something along those lines but with more Rh'llor in it but possibly quite different as well from the Long Night story that Old Nan told Bran. But yes I suppose i see Stannis' attitude as being circular or self-reinforcing.

[butterbumps!]

Does Jon even believe in the Long Night or that this is what Westeros is facing? Stannis presumably believes something along those lines but with more Rh'llor in it but possibly quite different as well from the Long Night story that Old Nan told Bran. But yes I suppose i see Stannis' attitude as being circular or self-reinforcing.

Jon knows it's not a normal winter and that there are wights and Others approaching.

But I'm trying to understand how each of them are seeing the fight for Winterfell/ the North. I kind of get that Stannis sees it as necessary because he's the "true king," but what is Jon's view of this? Are there any hints so far that he sees Northern unification as requisite to support the Watch against the Others? Is he seeing defeating the Boltons as requisite because Stannis' presence made the Watch a Bolton enemy, and therefore that driving them out will prevent the Watch from being eventually attacked? (so that it's not about rallying everyone against the Others but a type of defense of the Watch through offense). Or does Jon see Stannis' determination to drive out Boltons are merely another "given" he has to deal with, as in, without Stannis' wanting to defeat them, there wouldn't be a need, but since Stannis is insisting, it's something Jon needs to work around?

[Lummel]

I quibble not simply because of my inherent quibblosity but also because I'm concerned about what the characters are thinking about what lies before them and what we think about what lies before the characters. As far as I recall Jon hasn't tied the upcoming winter and the movements of the White walkers and Wights to teh story that Bran hears or anything along those lines. Later we get some phrasing that hints or plays upon our knowledge of the Old Nan Tale when Jon and Alys chat about the old men going out to die in the middle of winter, but nothing more than that I think :dunno:

Anyhow I think the idea of Stannis fighting the Boltons as a given that Jon has to deal with is something we can agree is there in the text. Maybe it is worth flicking back to Jon XI ASOS to look at how Stannis phrases the offer of WInterfell to Jon? My impression from Jon I ADWD was that Jon certainly hopes that Stannis will win in the North. Maybe some of our other readers and noble lurkers agree or disagree with that?

[Ragnorak]

If I can be a little transparent about my "agenda" for a moment, I'm highly invested in nailing down Stannis and Jon's respective endgames and how they're strategizing how to get there.

My wonderings about Stannis have a somewhat similar aim from a different direction. We're given a great deal of impressions about Stannis, but technically know very little-- at least relative to the emotional reactions our devious author is trying to spark in us. Even the issue of Stannis knowing about Mance is very vague. One can speculate about it but the actual information we have to make a call looking strictly at Stannis is almost zero. My own speculation was rooted in Mel because when I tried to take a read on Stannis from the text there just isn't a whole lot there. What is there is heavily weighted by an author trying to evoke emotional responses and judgments from his readers. I'm still fumbling for some more objective measuring sticks to put Stannis in context (if there are any.)

I think Stannis sees himself in a two front war where he needs to fend off his Northern flank (the Wall) until he can defeat/unite the Seven Kingdoms. The North is his key to taking the rest of Westeros. He thinks Jon is best suited for that (since he repeatedly nags him about it) but believes he can win them without Jon if he proves himself an able military commander and force to be reckoned with in battle. So his agenda is score one against Bolton to make the Northern Houses willing to side with him and win the North from the Lannister lackey Bolton. From there I imagine he thinks he can get Robb's old allies and probably the Vale since I doubt anyone believes they're happy with LF. Dorne has long standing tensions with the Reach and would be quite easily swayed to kill Lannisters for any reason and the Stormlands ought not be overly hard to win over for a Baratheon.

I don't think he's much concerned with any of that other than the North at the moment, but the point is that openings exist once he has the North to win support elsewhere. I see the North, followed by the other kingdoms in some domino effect, leading to a united Westeros attacking the Others as the big picture plan for Stannis. As far as the Wildlings go I can only imagine that he gets the math of dead Wildlings equals more zombies. He seems to be of the view that he defeated the Wildlings so that they must either accept his terms or suffer the fate they tried to flee. To a large extent he is correct. They don't have any bargaining power here. Either Stannis can use them in his army or Jon can use them to defend the Wall and either way they won't be zombies or part of a second Wildling offensive.

Long term problems like food don't concern him at the moment. He needs Wildlings to boost his ranks now and food is only a problem he'll have once he wins and one he'll never have if he loses. The Dreadfort is a seat to give his loyal lords and has winter stores. Possibilities will open if he's successful and if he's not it just won't matter. He's very task and goal oriented and not overly concerned about the next phase beyond having options should he get there.

Jon's own vision is taking shape in the form of advice to Stannis. I don't think he yet sees himself as one who will decide an end state and his adherence to his oath contributes to this. Sure, he hopes Stannis will win especially since at the moment the alternatives are far more bitter, yet I think he sees the political struggles and the defense of the Wall as separate. He's watched would-be-king's stars rise and fall so I think he sees the future as far from written. No one is sending an army to oust Stannis until Spring so the southern conflict is going to be unresolved for years or resolved entirely by the North should Stannis fall. Jon's task is to hold the Wall period-- or so I seem to think he views it at the moment. Events will pull him in and he will begin developing his own ideas of an end state (that's already started) but that happens over the course of this book in response to the events of this book rather than Jon having an end state from the beginning. At least that's my read on it.

[Lummel]

Hmm. I had another look at Jon XI, but there of course Stannis is pitching his worldview to Jon.

The more I reread the less seriously I take certain characters, Stannis is one of those for me, I don't see much support for him having a functioning sense of the big picture, his sense of reality and being able to understand other people's motivations seems off kilter. My impression is that his plan is something like this Stage one: Fight in North (the Great Other, Boltons etc etc), Stage two: ????, Stage three: be king on the Iron Throne! Of course Stannis via GRRM isn't sharing his plans with the likes of me.

But anyway I didn't think that Jon XI was terribly enlightening:

Stannis: "I was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom, when I should have been trying to save the kingdom to win the throne...There is where I'll find the foe that I was born to fight." (Stannis points north) ok, so from that I'd assume that Stannis believes that he needs to defeat the 'Great Other' first and this will win him the kingdom (somehow) but judging from ADWD it doesn't seem quite so straightforward because fighting the 'Great Other' seems to require beating the Boltons first.

Stannis: "I need the north" ok, but why precisely, how does this fit into the masterplan?

Stannis: "Your father's lands are bleeding, and I have neither the strength nor the time to stanch (staunch?) the wounds" that sounds more like part of Stannis' role and responsibility as king rather than as monsterfighter

Stannis: "Your northmen do not know me...yet I will need their strength in the battles yet to come" battles can be fought against anyone so this is open to interpretation, perhaps Stannis has both types of battles in mind, against the others and for the throne

Stannis: "even Azor Ahai did not win his war alone...(then speaking of the wildlings) the more we bleed each other, the weaker we shall all be when the real enemy fall upon us." So numbers come into this war in Stannis' view and he wants the numbers to be favourable and he wants his side to be stronger

Stannis: "it is time we made alliance against our common foe" here is meant wildlings and non-wildlings against the others

From Sam V we learn that holding the wall, opening all the castles and burning nightfires before the gates is part of stannis' plan. Which suggests that holding the wall is key, the war against the others is a matter perhaps of defending the wall against an attack by the Others?

Perhaps it doesn't all fall together, yet if Stannis and Melisandre are close then presumably his campaigning in the north must be with her approval, or rather not have her disapproval. On the other hand Melisandre's visions are difficult to interpret, perhaps that contributes to the vagueness of the situation?

[bemused]

I have a sinking feeling that we might have moved on by the time I can respond,...but..

I want to bring Mance into this as well, because I think all three of these men are busily reacting to the changing situation on the ground . They're all limited by - 1) things they don't know, and some more than others, by - 2) the things they do know , or think they know. And each will have to contend with the changing balance of power between them as well as any outside power massed against them.

I'd put Stannis foremost in the "2" category because of his circular LN /AA /King equation and he has perhaps been the least flexible because of it .I do stress " has been" because I think he's been becoming a bit more open to new ideas. Yes, a bit more "bendy" of late , as someone said upthread.. But still, the throne seems the end result in his mind . His plan seems to be - take WF,and install whoever he currently thinks is a suitable Stark substitute, defeat Boltons , then return to the Wall (Nightfort) reassess situation , gather his forces , etc...He told Jon he'd see how well Jon dealt with the other forts, implying that he might still take them.

If he can take care of the Boltons, now , before they can become entrenched in their new position, he won't have to fight all the way south when he makes his big push.

As a King , he seems to have one very clear plan , as we see in the TWoW Theon chapter

in his orders about securing Shireen's succession. M-m-m-m.. Perhaps not the

kindest thing he could do for Shireen, if he should die.

I do think Stannis knows about Mance , and that he left him with Jon is , to me , a sign that he does think Mance's best use is in the LN battle - no doubt thinking the Mance situation would be on hold until his return. ..I definitely don't think he would foresee Mance's current jaunt to Winterfell. ...But just as an aside, after hours of conversation , I think he probably knows of Mance's "singer" disguise , and that Mance had been to WF to size up Robert , among others... Mance told Jon about it on their first meeting , during a much briefer discussion. Ned and Robert would have been the adversaries Mance would have originally thought he'd be facing , other than the outmanned NW.

I'm sure Mance as well as Stannis sees WF as key to holding the north.( and he would have a better idea than Stannis of the Stark support to the NW.) ...We know Ned discussed settling the gift with Benjen. ...Was Mormont aware ? Did Ned ever discuss it with Qorgyll ? ...Young Mance came to WF with Qorgyll, but it seems Qorgyll had to go out of his way ,past the Shadow Tower, to include Mance in his party. Was he being groomed by Qorgyll ? ( I'm reminded of the Halfhand saying Mance was both the best and worst of the NW ).. regardless of such tantalising questions ,Mance may always have had his eye on the gift for the free folk.

Having been raised in the Watch , Mance would be very aware of the practice of the LC grooming likely candidates for leadership... knowing of course, that the one being groomed would still at some point have to win election.

I think Mance, as a king , gave some thought to his succession,as well.. but his successor would be an adult ( not his son) and would still have to win acclamation..Using the NW model would give the free folk a better chance at continuity in leadership than waiting to see if/when a new leader would emerge... Jarl had been described by Mance as Val's pet, but by Styr as Mance's pet. I think there are a few hints that Mance may have been grooming him , but they're very speculative right now.

I don't know if Mance is looking for an artifact at WF, or just a handy way in/out , but I feel sure he still has his own agenda. He's not just supporting Stannis if some other avenue should open up. I think he's also committed to fighting the common foe , but may still hope to do it on his own terms.

Jon is less preoccupied with thoughts of securing his succession ( though he has opinions on Stark succession). He's committed himself to the NW and the LN .

I think he does hope Stannis will win ... in the north, at least... The Lannisters have been useless to the wall. Whatever Ned's death means to him personally, Ned's death was obviously hugely disruptive to the North at a very dangerous time.... And I don't think Jon can have much hope of Bolton support, with or without the Lannisters . He warns Stannis that the Boltons don't have a flayed man on their banners for nothing. He knows Ned never trusted Roose and he may well know things about the Bolton history that we readers have been denied ( so far )... He certainly must have heard the story of Lady Hornwood ( that's old news ,and all over the North). Leaving Arya aside for a moment , I still don't think he can feel the Boltons will be a positive , stabilizing force for the people of the North , or a trustworthy ally for the NW.

Assuming Jon , Stannis and Mance all survive ( I hope we may) .. both Stannis and Mance may now find themselves less powerful than Jon in terms of manpower, certainly at the wall. I think Mance might be more willing to follow Jon's lead , knowing the way leadership among the Free Folk rises and falls... Stannis may be more prickly but he's basically pragmatic ...He seems to have the possibility of a real friendship in Jon..something he's very much missed in his life. ( I often wonder if that will make a difference to him, at some time..)

ETA: Yes, I agree Stannis is probably only concerned with defending the Wall , and perhaps moving on once he feels that's well in hand.

[Lummel]

...As a King , he seems to have one very clear plan , as we see in the TWoW Theon chapter...

I don't know if Mance is looking for an artifact at WF, or just a handy way in/out , but I feel sure he still has his own agenda...

Hmm. About Stannis I'm not sure. Rereading these chapters I notice how often he refers to the god, ie Rh'llor. He confronted Renly with faith in the god and won despite the numbers. Then the god gave him Storms Ends. However he was not true to his god before Kings Landing so he was defeated. That seems to me to be his mindset, if that is the case then perhaps he imagines that by defeating 'the great other' the god will give him the kingdom, that things will fall into place, mysteriously, as they did for him in the stormlands.

Quite how that fits with the actions Stannis is undertaking in the north I don't know. Plainly he believes he needs more manpower. We could extrapolate from his comment about the wildlings and the watch bleeding each other and assume that he thinks the Bolton ascendancy will drain strength that should be devoted to fighting 'the great other'. In a reasonable world the Watch and Stannis still need food and fodder to survive the winter so that might be in the background too, although it is not something that Stannis mentions.

Agree entirely on the Mance that he has his own agenda. I don't know what that might be though - any theories anyone?

[Ragnorak]

Agree entirely on the Mance that he has his own agenda. I don't know what that might be though - any theories anyone?

We aren't quite there yet, but in general I think Mance's agenda is the Dornishman's Wife. He's Rattleshirt now in a way that Varamyr would have been Thistle had he succeeded in the prologue. Life may be full of possibilities but there is more to life than just possessing it.

War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself.

-- John Stuart Mill

Mance was King of the Free Folk largely by their own free choice and Rattleshirt is a miserable creature. What is life for its own sake to a man like Mance? Look at the "The Ned's Girl" exchange with Big Bucket.

Big Bucket laughed in his face. “Lord Pea Pod. If you were a man, I would kill you for that, but my sword is made of too fine a steel to besmirch with craven’s blood.” He took a drink of ale and wiped his mouth. “Aye, men are dying. More will die before we see Winterfell. What of it? This is war. Men die in war. That is as it should be. As it has always been.”

Ser Corliss Penny gave the clan chief an incredulous look. “Do you want to die, Wull?”

That seemed to amuse the northman. “I want to live forever in a land where summer lasts a thousand years. I want a castle in the clouds where I can look down over the world. I want to be six-and-twenty again. When I was six-and-twenty I could fight all day and fuck all night. What men want does not matter.

“Winter is almost upon us, boy. And winter is death. I would sooner my men die fighting for the Ned’s little girl than alone and hungry in the snow, weeping tears that freeze upon their cheeks. No one sings songs of men who die like that. As for me, I am old. This will be my last winter. Let me bathe in Bolton blood before I die. I want to feel it spatter across my face when my axe bites deep into a Bolton skull. I want to lick it off my lips and die with the taste of it on my tongue.”

“Aye!” shouted Morgan Liddle. “Blood and battle!” Then all the hill-men were shouting, banging their cups and drinking horns on the table, filling the king’s tent with the clangor.

Mance even laments to Jon that Bael lived his own songs while Mance only sings them. First and foremost Mance wants to live, not just be alive. He knows he can be of use and he knows that once he's proven himself sufficiently useful he can leverage that to reclaim his identity. For now I think he's waiting for an opportunity. The "Arya" rescue provides him with one. Either he dies like the man in a Dornishman's Wife or he lives to sing about it. Look at these Northmen and their attitudes on rescuing Arya. If Mance can pull that off he's a free man again. No one is going to burn the hero who saved Arya or behead him for desertion.

There is also tremendous irony here in that Mance was returned to the service of the Lord Commander and again abandons the Watch for a "cloak" of sorts, a Stark cloak. There are some parallels between his choice and Jon's final choice at the end of Dance, but we can look at those when we get there.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

At this point in the story, I'm not sure Stannis has an actual military plan for victory that will put him on the Iron Throne. I think he's just trying to hold out, keep an army in the field, and hope the major players south of the Neck weaken each other enough to give him a chance later. He's convinced the Long Night is coming, and believes that if he can be the one to defeat the Others, some faction in the south will finally see the light and invite him to take the throne. Meanwhile, he'll try to consolidate the North so he can have the forces to beat the Others. It would go something like this:

1) Consolidate the North under his leadership.
2) Defeat Others and claim credit for saving Westeros.
3) Make alliance with whatever anti-Lannister force in the South he can, using results from 2) to his advantage.
4) Defeat Lannisters, sit butt on Iron Throne.

Early on Stannis certainly based his decision to accept the Red God on purely pragmatic reasons. He uses it as a tool to create unity, somewhat like Louis XIV's One King, One Law, One Faith strategy. I think he's actually started to believe in it a bit now, especially since he had those visions after his defeat at the Blackwater. Still, he's not as devout as a lot of his own men.

As for Jon, we should look at his two personas separately. "LC Snow" needs all the help he can get to hold the Wall. and will take it wherever he can find it. He would prefer to "take no side" in the civil war, but since only one faction in that war is inclined to help the NW, he is willing to bend a few traditions to accomplish his mission. (Not to mention that he really doesn't have a choice at the moment.) "Jon" would love to see Stannis kick some Bolton and Lannister butt, and would probably choose Stannis as his preferred king if he were free to choose. "LC Snow" is in charge right now, but that's a contest to keep an eye on. "LC Snow" and "Jon" can often find themselves agreeing with each other to help Stannis up to a point, but with different motivations.

Mance - who knows? His plan A failed. I have no idea what his agenda is now. Tormund will execute the wilding Plan B.

[Mithras]

ACoK:

“I stopped believing in gods the day I saw the Windproud break up across the bay. Any gods so monstrous as to drown my mother and father would never have my worship, I vowed. In King’s Landing, the High Septon would prattle at me of how all justice and goodness flowed from the Seven, but all I ever saw of either was made by men.”

“If you do not believe in gods—”

“—why trouble with this new one?” Stannis broke in. “I have asked myself as well. I know little and care less of gods, but the red priestess has power.”

TWoW:

“Your brother's hands are soaked with blood. Farring is urging me to give him to R'hllor."

"Clayton Suggs as well, I do not doubt."

"Him, Corliss Penny, all the rest. Even Ser Richard here, who only loves the Lord of Light when it suits his purposes."

"The red god's choir only knows a single song."

"So long as the song is pleasing in god's ears, let them sing.”

I don’t think Stannis believes the Lord of Light. As long as he believes in Mel's power, he will suffer the red god’s choir.

[Treemaster]

I don’t think Stannis believes the Lord of Light. As long as he believes in Mel's power, he will suffer the red god’s choir.

I agree. And I'm looking forward to the moment when Melisandre's power fails her and Stannis decides to throw her aside. (wishful thinking, perhaps)

[Lummel]

...I don’t think Stannis believes the Lord of Light. As long as he believes in Mel's power, he will suffer the red god’s choir.

I am not sure. I see now that he mentions 'the god' a lot. Looking at the last line in your spoiler, R'hllor seems to be a very real presence to him, though certainly he doesn't believe that the Seven have any power in the world.

I agree. And I'm looking forward to the moment when Melisandre's power fails her and Stannis decides to throw her aside. (wishful thinking, perhaps)

I'm not sure that there would be much left of Stannis without his Melisandre.

[butterbumps!]

Hey everyone--

I didn't want to start a new chapter so close to the 400 post mark, so here's the next installment!

[bemused]

Lummel.. Scary thought , alright ..how much of Stannis ' life force as already been drained ? However , I think he's still far more human than Mel is.

I think there's some sort of change in the wind ahead , but I'm not at all sure how it will work out. First he comes to trust Mel more in part , as a result of having his own visions , but later, his need for men causes him to be at least more respectful of the Northern Clans' adherence to the old gods ( a respect denied to the wildlings) ... and looking ahead , there are definite hints in the TWoW Theon chapter that he may be forced to recognize that there are "powers" other than Red Rahloo ( I mean genuine phenomena attributable to other "gods". ) If so ,Mel will not be there to claim it's the Great Other at work. He'll only have his own senses and intellect to rely on. He'll still have to hold his zealots in check , and may have to engage in some soul searching..

[jarl the climber]

Hmm. I had another look at Jon XI, but there of course Stannis is pitching his worldview to Jon.

The more I reread the less seriously I take certain characters, Stannis is one of those for me, I don't see much support for him having a functioning sense of the big picture, his sense of reality and being able to understand other people's motivations seems off kilter. My impression is that his plan is something like this Stage one: Fight in North (the Great Other, Boltons etc etc), Stage two: ????, Stage three: be king on the Iron Throne! Of course Stannis via GRRM isn't sharing his plans with the likes of me.

But anyway I didn't think that Jon XI was terribly enlightening:

Stannis: "I was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom, when I should have been trying to save the kingdom to win the throne...There is where I'll find the foe that I was born to fight." (Stannis points north) ok, so from that I'd assume that Stannis believes that he needs to defeat the 'Great Other' first and this will win him the kingdom (somehow) but judging from ADWD it doesn't seem quite so straightforward because fighting the 'Great Other' seems to require beating the Boltons first.

Stannis: "I need the north" ok, but why precisely, how does this fit into the masterplan?

Stannis: "Your father's lands are bleeding, and I have neither the strength nor the time to stanch (staunch?) the wounds" that sounds more like part of Stannis' role and responsibility as king rather than as monsterfighter

Stannis: "Your northmen do not know me...yet I will need their strength in the battles yet to come" battles can be fought against anyone so this is open to interpretation, perhaps Stannis has both types of battles in mind, against the others and for the throne

Stannis: "even Azor Ahai did not win his war alone...(then speaking of the wildlings) the more we bleed each other, the weaker we shall all be when the real enemy fall upon us." So numbers come into this war in Stannis' view and he wants the numbers to be favourable and he wants his side to be stronger

Stannis: "it is time we made alliance against our common foe" here is meant wildlings and non-wildlings against the others

From Sam V we learn that holding the wall, opening all the castles and burning nightfires before the gates is part of stannis' plan. Which suggests that holding the wall is key, the war against the others is a matter perhaps of defending the wall against an attack by the Others?

Perhaps it doesn't all fall together, yet if Stannis and Melisandre are close then presumably his campaigning in the north must be with her approval, or rather not have her disapproval. On the other hand Melisandre's visions are difficult to interpret, perhaps that contributes to the vagueness of the situation?

The thing that struck me about Jon XI is that Stannis clearly states that he feels he more or less acquired Jon when he got to the Wall and that he plans to make use of him and he stated it to Jon unequivocably. He seems to struggle with this for a time, Jon is named LC, he declines the offer of Winterfell, he refuses to give up the castles except the Nightfort but eventually gives him a reasonalbe plan of action for starting a campaign in the North in return for a free hand with the wildlings and his own command, which is sort of nominal as long as Stannis is at the Wall. Of course Jon still has deal with Mel looking over his shoiulder and later the Queen.

My take is that Stannis got the better end of the deal. He got information and insights from Jon that his other councilors could not have provided and in return he gives Jon nothing, defending the Wall and having a policy towards the Wildlings are all within his purveiw to begin with, Stannis is merely letting him do his job. At the same time his Queen, his heir and his Red Priest truly become guests of the Nights Watch, who are only there at Jons leave and under his protection. Jon became far more drawn in taking Stannis's side after Stannis left than Stannis was ever able to convince him to do while he was there and its not really an accident. At the same time if Stannis should win and Jons actions displease him in some way Stannis has some latitude to remove him, along with his head, and disown his actions.

Its a tale of a more experienced and seasoned guy taking advantage of the younger more inexpeirenced one. Its more of a classic game of thrones scenario. Jon is his piece, with a mind of his own, and Stannis is trying to feel him out and find the best way to move him and play off of him.