A Dragon Dawn: A Complete Analysis of the Upcoming Battle of Fire

[BryndenBFish]

Hi all,

Just started a new essay series on the Battle of Fire. I figure I would link to it here if you all would like to read it. Part 1 is primarily a summary and analysis of portions of AFFC/ADWD as it relates to events leading up to the battle with a particular focus on the Meereenese insurgency, Yunaki's resurgence, the kingsmoot and Astapor's fall. I'm sure you all will have comments, so let me know on the blog or here! Thanks!

[BryndenBFish]

Part 2 is now up. In this part, I wrote and analyzed on:

1. Who is the Harpy?
   
2. The Pale Mare
   
3. Dany's plans of attack and then defense in Meereen
   
4. The deteriorating internal situation in Meereen
   
5. The Iron Fleet's attack on the Shield Islands
   
6. Dany's attempt at peace
   

Questions, comments or concerns? I'll be happy to answer and respond to anything.

[BryndenBFish]

As an aside, I've taken the map of Westeros/Essos and attempted to map Victarion's journey to Meereen. It's not a fantastic map by any stretch, but if you have any feedback for the map for part 3, please let me know.

Here's the link to the map on imgur

[BryndenBFish]

Part 3: The Gates of Fate

• The First Days of Peace in Meereen
  
• The Voyage of the Iron Fleet
  
• The Yunkish Encirclement of Meereen
  
• Yunkish Preparations for the Siege
  
• The Marriage in Meereen
  
• The Descent of Drogon
  

Thanks for reading, comments & criticisms highly appreciated!

[Elessar]

I'm confused, what is this exactly? Besides an in depth synopsis of stuff we already know?

[BryndenBFish]

Well, it's my attempt to describe, analyze and predict the upcoming Battle of Fire. At present, it's based on ADWD, but I'll be getting into TWOW for parts 4 and 5. So, the first 3 parts are background while parts 4 and 5 will hopefully be the pay-off. If it's not your cup of tea, no worries! :)

[Elessar]

So you'll be waiting until TWOW releases or guessing or using what we know from the samples? I'm just confused as to what this is supposed to be. Seems like a lot of effort just to retell the story in your own words.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

So you'll be waiting until TWOW releases or guessing or using what we know from the samples? I'm just confused as to what this is supposed to be. Seems like a lot of effort just to retell the story in your own words.

No more so than any of the other theories on the board that go into great detail about things we're not sure of yet. We all find ways to fill the time between books. This is no less valid than any other.

I respect the work you've obviously put into this BryndenBFish. I'll try to find time to go over all of it so I can give you some feedback.

[BryndenBFish]

So you'll be waiting until TWOW releases or guessing or using what we know from the samples? I'm just confused as to what this is supposed to be. Seems like a lot of effort just to retell the story in your own words.

Ah, I see what you're getting at. Setting the background at present, but I plan to use the sample chapters, parts from ADWD and other things that Martin has said outside of the book series to predict the sequence of events of the battle along with its overall outcome.

Formerly, I did a prediction/analysis piece on the upcoming Battle of Winterfell (Part 1 and Part 2) if that helps better illustrate what I'm driving at.

[Davos OnionKing]

No more so than any of the other theories on the board that go into great detail about things we're not sure of yet. We all find ways to fill the time between books. This is no less valid than any other.

I respect the work you've obviously put into this BryndenBFish. I'll try to find time to go over all of it so I can give you some feedback.

Totally agree, I read this and was quite surprised at the level of detail. I have only read through DWD once so this was a great refresher without having to go back through and piece all the information together myself. I will find time to read through the Battle of Winterfell pieces as well. Kudos on the hard work compiling this and making it easy for those of us that are more casual readers :)

[Widows_Blood]

Really thoughtful and well argued. I only wished more blind Dany haters would read it...

[BryndenBFish]

Totally agree, I read this and was quite surprised at the level of detail. I have only read through DWD once so this was a great refresher without having to go back through and piece all the information together myself. I will find time to read through the Battle of Winterfell pieces as well. Kudos on the hard work compiling this and making it easy for those of us that are more casual readers :)

You're very welcome!

Really thoughtful and well argued. I only wished more blind Dany haters would read it...

I'd go farther and say that really getting into the weeds with Dany's arc in ADWD helps to enjoy the story a lot and recognize the book for being a really incredibly detailed and fun book. I'd even go so far as to say that ADWD might be the best volume of the series. Understanding Dany's story as a series of consequences of her seizing power is a way that's really improved my enjoyment of the book as opposed to seeing it as filler until the dragons and plot advance enough for the story to pick back up.

[Davos OnionKing]

Ah, I see what you're getting at. Setting the background at present, but I plan to use the sample chapters, parts from ADWD and other things that Martin has said outside of the book series to predict the sequence of events of the battle along with its overall outcome.

Formerly, I did a prediction/analysis piece on the upcoming Battle of Winterfell (Part 1 and Part 2) if that helps better illustrate what I'm driving at.

Read through your synopsis of the Battle for Winterfell as well. Great stuff, especially on how the fight where Stannis currently is holed up may take place. My only question is regarding the pink letter (that damned letter!). You assume that Ramsay indeed wrote the letter based on false info regarding Stannis. Does that mean you believe that Mance Rayder is indeed in a cage and cloaked in the skin of his spearwives? Or is Ramsay embellishing here? It's all speculation I know, but I too am of the opinion that Ramsay wrote the letter, but only out of desperation not out of confidence and that Mance was able to escape.

[BryndenBFish]

Read through your synopsis of the Battle for Winterfell as well. Great stuff, especially on how the fight where Stannis currently is holed up may take place. My only question is regarding the pink letter (that damned letter!). You assume that Ramsay indeed wrote the letter based on false info regarding Stannis. Does that mean you believe that Mance Rayder is indeed in a cage and cloaked in the skin of his spearwives? Or is Ramsay embellishing here? It's all speculation I know, but I too am of the opinion that Ramsay wrote the letter, but only out of desperation not out of confidence and that Mance was able to escape.

As for the particulars in the letter, there are a number of weird things about it:

• Ramsay says Stannis was defeated in 7 days of battle... in a blizzard... when he wasn't likely present. My belief is that this is a Manderly deception.

On Mance... I've gone back and forth on this, but I think that Ramsay is being truthful here. As the Umber Green Boys turned up with only Theon & Jeyne, I think it's a troubling sign as to the fates of the spearwives & Mance Rayder.

Overall, I don't think Ramsay got far outside of WF before the Manderlys and Freys came trotting back reporting of their great victory over Stannis. Of course, I think that Stannis will have his men dress in Frey/Karstark surcoats and infiltrate Winterfell. Perhaps Stannis himself will be glamoured as Arnolf Karstark.

Thanks again for reading. I know it's a lot, but the military side of ASOIAF is one of my favorite things to write on.

[MegaAIP]

I'm confused, what is this exactly? Besides an in depth synopsis of stuff we already know?

it's a stragitic break down of who has what and what they face

[aFeastForDragons]

Just wanted to say thanks so much for writing these essays. Looking forward to reading through all the battle ones now.

[BryndenBFish]

Hey all,

Had a fair amount of time and part 4: A Sweet Steel Song is now up! In this part, I write on:

• The Brief Reign of HIzdahr
  
• The Barristan/Skahaz Plot to Overthrow Hizdahr
  
• The Yunkish position
  
• Sellswords & the reasons for turning cloak on the Yunkai'i
  
• The final leg of the Iron Fleet's voyage
  
• Unleashing of the dragons
  
• Discarding the final peace for war
  

This one is the last one from A Dance with Dragons. The next essay will be analysis of the actual Battle of Fire taken entirely from The Winds of Winter. So, I hope you enjoy this one! Comments, disagreements and criticisms would be highly appreciated.

Cheers!

[Red Wedding Cake]

Great work

[BryndenBFish]

Hey everyone,

Part 5: The Burning Pyramid is now up! This was my absolute favorite part to write so far, and I'd love to hear your thoughts on it. In this part, I write on:

• The various factions and sub-factions about to do battle.
  
• Barristan, Victarion and the Yunkish battle plan
  
• Strengths and weakness of the plans
  
• The final lighting of the pyramid and commencement of the battle
  

Almost all of the material is taken from The Winds of Winter, so if you've been patiently waiting to finally get to material from The Winds of Winter, it's finally here! Thanks to everyone for your kind words. I would love to read any Disagreement, debate and discussion that you all might have.

Cheers!

[aFeastForDragons]

Cheers again! The last part of ADWD really confused me and I couldn't make head or tell of what was going on with all the characters in Mereen. Thanks for taking the time to explain.