[Spoilers] Littlefinger, Dorne and the Sparrows

[Hippocras]

The Winds of Winter is the book that will start to bring all the various sprawling threads together by revealing some of the hidden connections between seemingly unrelated events and actors. It will be the book where the struggle for dominance between the plots in particular of Varys and Littlefinger will boil to the surface, clarifying who is entangled in each plot. As for what these plots aim to achieve: We already have some strong clues about the endgame of Varys. He wants to put "Aegon" on the throne. He likely is, and has always been an agent of the Blackfyre branch. Littlefinger's goal, however, is more puzzling. He appears to be a lone wolf. This theory proposes that he is not.

Lots of people seem to take him at his word that he loved Catelyn, and therefore believe that his endgame has to do with either love or revenge for Cat snubbing him. I think this idea is flawed. He never loved Cat, he just wanted her for her lineage: A family tree that he though would open up a world of possibilities to him. He has been telling everyone in King's Landing for years that he took Catelyn's virginity. We know from Lysa he did not, but even if he did, boasting about it would be the feudal society's equivalent of slut shaming, so hardly an act of love. He slept with Lysa, got her pregnant and professed undying love for her the instant his plan for Cat failed; hardly the act of a heartsick lover. Finally, he completely destroyed Catelyn and her family by deliberately using attempted murder and lies to push the North and Riverlands into war against the Lannisters. When he was done using Lysa as a pawn in his projects, driving her insane in the process, he murdered her without a second thought. Now he is trying to push Sansa along the same path he already sent Jeyne Poole. Love has never been his motive.

His project is more likely about power through chaos. Mostly it involves pretending to be everyone's most helpful friend, while pushing them all towards total war. He is doing this by playing on various actors' suspicions, desires for revenge or wealth. His primary tool is the manipulation of debts, financial and political. And it is his game with financial debts that convinces me he is working with the Sparrows directly:

Remember that as master of coin for many years he was responsible for driving the iron thone into massive debt – with the Iron Bank of Braavos, with the Lannisters, and with the Faith. The direct consequence of the debt to the Faith was that at their suggestion Cersei allowed the revival of the Faith Millitant in exchange for debt forgiveness. Without this, they did not have the power to bring her down through her shaming and her trial.

All of the recent moves by the Faith seemed to appear out of nowhere, but had actually been building since the beginning of the war - a war Littlefinger caused. First the Sparrows appeared as heroes of the small folk in the Riverlands and King's Landing to gain a support base while fomenting popular unrest with inflammatory speeches in the streets. Then they besieged the capital and staged a coup within the Faith which resulted in the elevation of their leader as High Septon. The High Sparrow then withheld his support for Tommen's coronation to force a meeting with Cersei at which point he confronted her about the throne's debts to the Faith. From that he won the right to an army of his own. All that remains is to see what they do with their army next. I see the stamp of Littlefinger in their methods. I certainly would not count on them turning out to be the do-gooders they are pretending to be. That would not be Martin's style. All that remains is to find the links between Littlefinger and the Sparrows.

For that, first note that Septon Meribald's physical description closely resembles Oswell Kettleblack who serves house Baelish: He "is six feet tall and walks with a slight hunch. He has large, leathery hands and large, bare, weathered feet. His face is lined and windburnt with thick grey hair." Oswell "has a wind burnt face, hooked nose, white hair, huge knuckled hands, and crooked teeth." Oswell as wandering septon could be one way Littlefinger communicates with his agents - another being the Merling King. Interestingly, Meribald fought in the War of the Ninepenny Kings, which was also where Hoster Tully met Lord Baelish Sr. who impressed him, leading to his son Petyr becoming his ward.

The High Sparrow's description seems similar to Septon Meribald's at first, however he is a small man and Meribald is large. No doubt if the Sparrows are indeed part of Littlefinger's plot he is someone significant, but it is not clear who. He may be someone who helps build the link to another branch of Littlefinger's conspiracy. Or he may be Baelish Sr, - Littlefinger is a small man also. This would make sense in light of the Oswell Kettleblack connection.

The other player connected to the Sparrows is the Elder Brother of Quiet Isle, which is the Sparrows' home base. He is quite mysterious, but there is one possible identity for him that is particularly interesting: Lewyn Martell who was supposedly killed by Lyn Corbray on the Trident. First of all, we know that Littlefinger is now in charge in the Vale, and even before he was pulling Lysa's strings. We know that the Vale and Dorne are the only two regions to have so far avoided the war. We know that Doran Martell has been subtly plotting revenge for Elia and her children from the moment they died. We know the Elder Brother was once a knight and fought in the battle of the Trident for Rhaegar. We know also that the Corbrays were Targaryen loyalists at the beginning of Robert's Rebellion, and they are now helping Littlefinger - whose grandfather they brought from Braavos. Lyn Corbray could easily be lying about having killed Lewyn Martell, and the bones given to Jon Arryn to bring to Dorne could have been anyone's.

Lewyn as Elder Brother would provide a connection point between Dorne's long-term scheme, the Vale and the Sparrows. It would also raise the interesting question of who his paramour was - the reason Lewyn joined the Kingsguard, and the one to whom the Elder Brother had only his sword, shield and horse to offer. The most interesting candidate for that by far is Rhaella Targaryen, who we know from Barristan Selmy was in love with a knight before she was betrothed to her brother Aerys. If so, Daenerys may turn out to be Targaryen only on her mother's side.

Another, less interesting candidate for the Elder Brother is Jonothor Darry. In my opionion the character descriptions do not match, and as the Darry lands are very close to the Quiet Isle it seems unlikely he would have gone unrecognized for so long. It also seems unlikely he would have stayed out of the frey when Gregor slaughtered his family. But if he is Jonothor, that would provide a link to Willem Darry, Braavos, and the secret marriage pact made there for Arianne Martell.

Even if the Elder Brother is not Lewyn or Jonothor, it seems highly probable that Littlefinger is working with Dorne in some way, at least for the time being. We know Doran Martell has for a long time had a very highly placed informant in King's Landing, and that informant is unlikely to be Varys because if Varys were working with Dorne while trying to put Aegon on the throne, his uncle Doran would have been in on it and helping out a long time ago. Even a fake Aegon needs Dorne's support for the appearance of legitimacy. But if their informant is Littlefinger, we also know that he pretends to help everyone, so it seems possible that beyond the plot with Dorne he has his own project that has nothing to do with them, but does involve the Iron Bank of Braavos and possibly the Faceless Men, as well as the gold of Casterly Rock - but that is for another thread.

A Littlefinger - Sparrow collaboration requires looking at a few of the details mentioned in the story with greater scrutiny. First of all the Kettleblacks. Was Osney actually tortured by the Faith and is there any evidence of this, or was there only a staged scene and words for Cersei's benefit? She would have had to believe they would torture their witnesses if she was ever going to confess to anything. That scene may have been purely to make her afraid of who knew what and how loyal they would be under torture. Clearly if the Kettleblacks are closely aligned with the Sparrows via Oswell, his son Osney is feeding them information willingly and without torture.

If we consider that Osney may not have actually been tortured, we can draw a parallel to Marillion, who may himself have been Littlefinger's spy. This would be the real reason he went to the Vale with Catelyn in spite of the dangerous road, and stayed close to Lysa without concern for his general popularity. He also showed no actual evidence of having been tortured, according to Sansa, and as Robert claims to have heard him singing when he was supposedly dead, he may be still alive. We have only Littlefinger's word that he was tortured and killed. I see no reason to believe him.

Next there is Qyburn, who was Cersei's only visitor other than her uncle during her confinement, and who has no clear motive to stay loyal to her. The Sparrows have gone to great pains to set up their coup within the Faith and bring about Cersei's trial and could easily have blocked Qyburn's visits. But they did not. Do they know about Robert Strong? If so, is he as invincible as Qyburn claims or is Qyburn actually helping the Sparrows by giving the Lannisters and Tyrells a false sense of security in the trial's outcome? Note that it was Qyburn who told Cersei that a coin from the time of House Gardener was found in Rugen's quarters, but no coin was actually shown. Taena Merryweather later seemed to support the story but we already know she is a double agent for someone. Qyburn may well be also. He was with the Brave Companions before King's Landing; a rather demonic group of sellswords that Tywin set loose on the Riverlands to inspire terror. Qyburn may have been planted with them as an informant. The destruction they caused pushed the small folk into the waiting arms of the Sparrows, feeding their popularity, and then their coup d'état. The Sparrows and the Brave Companions could easily have been two sides of the same plot. It seems possible then that the Sparrows know about Robert Strong, that he is not as sure a bet as he appears to be, and that they have sheltered Sandor on the Quiet Isle deliberately for Cersei's trial.

In the books Dorne appears strangely vulnerable and lacking allies. It appears as though their only chance for revenge might be an alliance with Aegon. But I believe Doran Martell is a far more talented schemer than that, and the full scope of his plan to take down the Lannisters is about to reveal itself. With Littlefinger and the Sparrows, by stealth he has already captured King's Landing. The Lannisters and Tyrells just don't know it yet.

[Agamemnon]

IIRC Cersei sees the lash marks all over Osney's body. And Marillion's fingers seem stiff under the gloves to Sansa and she thinks it is because.he is missing a few but no direct evidence of HIS torture. I love the idea of LF working with the sparrows. His building up the faith's debt was a stroke of brilliance if it was planned as you suggest.

The suggestion Meribald=Oswell is also verry curious. I thought at first the timeframes didnt add up but Oswell was last seen on the fingers at most a month after the Purple Wedding and Brienne meets up with Meribald at least two months after she left KL, and.that was a few weeks after Sansa.

[Hippocras]

hmm. Still... lashes would be a small price to pay given the benefits no? Could he have accepted a few lashings for the larger cause?

His other alternative was exile to the Wall with only Cersei's assurances that he would ever be able to leave alive.

[Fire Eater]

I don't think Elder Brother is Jonothor Darry as he stated that Rhaegar never knew him, and his father was a landed knight while the Darrys are lords.

Oswell isn't Meribald as Meribald seems to know the riverlands well, and Oswell is still sailing the Merling King.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Interesting connections here. I particularly like the idea that Doran is manipulating things through the faith. Hope he's not putting too much trust in Littlefinger, if you're right about this. There's been the question of who is Dorne's friends in KL. Could certainly be Littlefinger.

I don't recall Littlefinger having professed his love for Lysa when they were young (after she got pregnant). I know she thought he loved her, but was that because he said it or because she wanted it to be true? I do believe he loved Catelyn, but not that it's his driving force in life. He's clearly all about power and chaos, and possibly some money too. I have a theory about his plans for Sansa as well.

[Light a wight tonight]

I don't recall the Quiet Isle being connected with the Sparrows. Care to show where that's stated in the text?

[Edd Tollett's One Vote]

I doubt Lewyn Martell is still alive. He was a member of the kingsguard. If he's still alive then why would he be working with LF instead of trying to find and protect the King, be it Viserys (when he was alive) and Dany or Aegon?

I suppose Meribald could be Oswell... but he could equally just be a nice septon. I'm not really sure what good it would do LF to send him out in disguise to just wander around and help the poor. Although, of all the "x is actually y" comparisons you've made this one is probably the most likely, since they do at least share somewhat similar descriptions.

The High Sparrow could be an agent of LF or Varys or just an honest to god religious zealot. I don't think he's LF's dad though. For LF to be Lord of his bit of the fingers, we kind of have to assume his father's dead. The fact that the HS is short doesn't really prove this either way.

In short, while nothing said is implausible, I would argue that there isn't really much evidence for it in the text outside of "it could be true". There's no reason to believe that many of the people aren't exactly who they say they are, and nothing concrete or even really hinted at (to my knowledge) in the text to link the sparrows, LF and Dorne.

[Hippocras]

It is true enough that all of these possible x = y ideas may not pan out, but even then, it would not eliminate the possibility that Littlefinger used manipulation of debt to stage a coup on the capital via the Faith, and that he is working with Doran on his goal of revenge against the Lannisters. The Faith brings down Cersei and everyone's hands are clean.

Once Dorne finds out via Nym and Tyene that Gregor lives, then Tommen dies, the Tyrells are framed for it, and suddenly Dorne has already captured King's Landing by stealth with the entire army of the Faith to back them up against the Tyrells. If true, it proves the genius of both Littlefinger and Doran.

Because I like this idea so much, I would be fascinated to read any other ideas of possible connections for this axis-of-stealth if the Oswell, Lewyn etc. ideas do not pan out.

[Hippocras]

To answer some of the doubts above -

1. I think Agamemnon above made good points about the timing. Oswell may indeed be still on the Merling King, but he may not be. We have no proof either way. As a long-time ally of house Baelish, I'm pretty sure Oswell knows the Riverlands well enough to be Meribald, especially if house Baelish has been as involved in illicit activities in Westeros as I suspect. There is enough of a gap in the timeline for him to fill both roles.

2. Jonothor Darry was not the heir to the Darry lands, so not a lord. Perhaps he might have become one eventually, but he joined the Kingsguard. He was simply a landed knight. As for him never knowing Rhaegar, I don't remember reading that, but if so, we already know the Elder Brother plays with truth a little bit when it comes to his previous life then his death. He may only mean that he never knew Rhaegar since his rebirth on the Quiet Isle.

3. The Quiet Isle is clearly implied to be connected to the Sparrows via the wandering septons such as Meribald who took Brienne there - the same septons who were building up groups of mercenaries to protect small folk travelling in the Riverlands (some characters passed them on the roads), the same ones who were giving inflammatory speeches in King's Landing (demon monkey) and who now have raised one of their own as High Septon. They are identified by their basic clothing and their bare, severly abused feet.

4. Lysa was not crazy until recently. When she was younger she was simply naive, and craving attention. If she believed Littlefinger loved her it was because he said he did, which he would have done in order to sleep with her repeatedly, get her pregnant, then ask Hoster Tully for her hand in marriage because she was pregnant. Hoster did not cooperate though. Instead he gave her Tansy tea to abort the pregnancy then married her off, fast, to Jon Arryn.

[Light a wight tonight]

3. The Quiet Isle is clearly implied to be connected to the Sparrows via the wandering septons such as Meribald who took Brienne there - the same septons who were building up groups of mercenaries to protect small folk travelling in the Riverlands (some characters passed them on the roads), the same ones who were giving inflammatory speeches in King's Landing (demon monkey) and who now have raised one of their own as High Septon. They are identified by their basic clothing and their bare, severly abused feet.

Sorry, this connection is less than tenuous. Not clearly implied at all. The Sparrows may be militant but Meribald is a confirmed pacifist, as shown in his memorable speech on broken men. His demeanor is very unlike that of the Sparrows. I see absolutely no connection between them.

I asked that you quote a passage and you have given me an opinion, and a flawed one, IMO.

[Hippocras]

Sorry, this connection is less than tenuous. Not clearly implied at all. The Sparrows may be militant but Meribald is a confirmed pacifist, as shown in his memorable speech on broken men. His demeanor is very unlike that of the Sparrows. I see absolutely no connection between them.

I asked that you quote a passage and you have given me an opinion, and a flawed one, IMO.

Hardly. Meribald went right there. The description of Meribald's feet and clothing is so similar to the High Sparrow that many people think they are the same person. Sandor is being sheltered there. But whatever, we will see what the next book brings.

As for "confirmed pacifist" words are wind. I don't believe anything anyone says in these books. There is absolutely no reason to take his story at face value.

[Hippocras]

I think everyone should remember that Martin is a lapsed Catholic, not an active one. The too-good-to-be-true religious folks are a flashing warning light to me.

[brown ben romney]

IIRC there was one or two scenes where Doran talked about having friends/informants in court, maybe he was talking about littlefinger? this theory is definetely a stretch but also very intriguing. Doran, littlefinger and the sparrows are three factions with whom i think there is more reveals coming about their plans and motives. If done right, a connection between the three could be really cool.

[Hippocras]

IIRC there was one or two scenes where Doran talked about having friends/informants in court, maybe he was talking about littlefinger? this theory is definetely a stretch but also very intriguing. Doran, littlefinger and the sparrows are three factions with whom i think there is more reveals coming about their plans and motives. If done right, a connection between the three could be really cool.

Yeah. A lot of people are convinced the informant is Varys, but I see really big gaping holes in that idea.

The best reason for believing that Littlefinger is working with the Sparrows is the way they used debt leverage to get themselves an army.

The best reason for believing Dorne is working with the Sparrows is that Cersei's shame walk screams "delicious revenge against the Lannisters". There is also a parallel between demanding she confess, and Oberyn pestering Gregor to confess during Tyrion's trial by combat.

And the best reasons for believing Littlefinger is working with Dorne is a) The fact that the Vale and Dorne are the only two places to stay out of the war and b.) The long-term Corbray Baelish connection.

Those things are solid. Everything else in the theory is pure speculation, but interesting speculation nevertheless!

[Hippocras]

now....how to get people to come to the thread and do some speculating.....

:D

[Kienn]

What's house corbray have to do with Dorne?

High sparrow is Varys IMO, maribald a possible second option.

[Hippocras]

What's house corbray have to do with Dorne?

High sparrow is Varys IMO, maribald a possible second option.

The Corbrays were part of a group of Vale lords who fought AGAINST Jon Arryn at the beginning of the Rebellion. They are very likely to be secretly against Lannister reign as the Darrys are.

High Sparrow could theoretically be connected to Varys, but Littlefinger is the stronger case.

1. They won their army using debt leverage. That is a Littlefinger move, not a Varys one.

2. Varys is working for the Blackfyre line. Aegon is a fake. The traditional supporters of the Blackfyres were from the Reach. Varys will look for his support there, where there is the largest army of allies to be found - remember that as soon as Tommen is dead, which will happen soon, the Tyrells are out of power in KL. The Reach will jump to Aegon.

3. Dorne suspects already that Aegon is a fake. If Dorne was not part of Varys's plan for raising Aegon, winning them over now will be problematic. If Varys had been working with Dorne all this time, he would have told Uncle Doran about Aegon long ago.

4. The first move by the Sparrows, once they had their army, was to take down Cersei. They made her confess and do a shame walk. It reeks of revenge. And Dorne wants revenge against Lannisters badly.

So - Varys working with Dorne is extremely weak.

Dorne working with the Sparrows is less weak. Motive and method is there even if we can't see the links yet.

Littlefinger working with Dorne is possible because the Dorne allies in the Vale were already in place and helping him secure his power when he arrived there.

Littlefinger working with the Sparrows makes a great deal of sense because of the geography of the Sparrows and because of their use of debt leverage.

Maekar I ... was the fourth son of King Daeron II [and Myriah Martell] and was given the Targaryen seat of Summerhall. Maekar was a capable army commander who served in the Blackfyre Rebellion. After a number of unexpected deaths in the royal family, he came to the throne in 221AL. He ruled until 233AL, when he fell in battle against a rebel lord.

In the end, it was the wedding of Princess Daenerys to the Dornish Prince Maron Martell that led to the Blackfyre Rebellion. It was said Daemon loved her and she him, so he rose in rebellion when she was denied to him by Daeron.

[Victor227]

I'd argue that the High Sparrow business is something that's out of Varys' hands. After all, one of the reasons he had to kill Kevan - and a murder spree in the Red Keep is something that only works once (his passages will be no-doubt closed up and torn down all over, not just a half-measure with the Hand's tower).- was because Kevan was binding the Faith to Tommen and working to fill the rift opened up by Cersei and the various trials.

If Varys controlled the High Septon, or at least the Sparrow movement, he could surely have instigated some other form of chaos or negotiation breakdown that would have ensured trouble.

I'm of the opinion that the whole Sparrow Movement is an unexpected byproduct of the game that everyone's been playing. For all of Varys' 'for the realm' crap, few have done more to sow confusion, pain, and terror throughout Westeros than him, and Littlefinger is shameless in the damage he's done. Could people outside of the established power structure reacting in such a way be something that such... well, sociopaths as they could really think of?

Of course, I wouldn't put it passed Littlefinger or Varys to have their own whispers in the High Septon's ears. Mind you, that Osney's a terrible liar seemed to have sold him out and led the High Septon onto Cersei's scheme far better than anyone telling him about it could have.

[Hippocras]

I'd argue that the High Sparrow business is something that's out of Varys' hands. After all, one of the reasons he had to kill Kevan - and a murder spree in the Red Keep is something that only works once (his passages will be no-doubt closed up and torn down all over, not just a half-measure with the Hand's tower).- was because Kevan was binding the Faith to Tommen and working to fill the rift opened up by Cersei and the various trials.

If Varys controlled the High Septon, or at least the Sparrow movement, he could surely have instigated some other form of chaos or negotiation breakdown that would have ensured trouble.

I'm of the opinion that the whole Sparrow Movement is an unexpected byproduct of the game that everyone's been playing. For all of Varys' 'for the realm' crap, few have done more to sow confusion, pain, and terror throughout Westeros than him, and Littlefinger is shameless in the damage he's done. Could people outside of the established power structure reacting in such a way be something that such... well, sociopaths as they could really think of?

Of course, I wouldn't put it passed Littlefinger or Varys to have their own whispers in the High Septon's ears. Mind you, that Osney's a terrible liar seemed to have sold him out and led the High Septon onto Cersei's scheme far better than anyone telling him about it could have.

The Sparrow currently have no proven links to anyone and could, in theory, be their own movement. But I have my doubts for several reasons, most already mentioned.

I think the Sparrow coup was a real coup - the Faith had traditionally been connected to Hightower and that was the foundation of their bank and their influence. When the Sparrows took over, they effectively unseated Hightower. And noone seems to know who the High Sparrow is or where the movement came from. But if Dorne had been behind it? Would it not make sense, given that we know that Doran has been working on some long term plan against the Lannisters for a very very long time?

[Hippocras]

Known Blackfyre supporters:

http://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/1n5fft/spoilers_all_friends_in_the_reach_current/

An interesting read for context.