Jump to content


Photo

Were Rhaegar and Tywin secretly in contact with each other during RR?


  • Please log in to reply
22 replies to this topic

#1 mezmerised

mezmerised

    Sellsword

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 124 posts

Posted 28 February 2014 - 09:52 AM

I always found it hard to believe that Tywin Lannister simply decided to stay neutral during Robert's Rebellion.

Westeros is going through its greatest game-changing moment in decades (maybe centuries) and Tywin stays home at Casterly Rock, basically doing nothing and looks on from the sidelines while the other Great Houses are changing history? Seems very ooc to me. Plus he must have known that no matter who'd emerge as the winner, staying out of the conflict will make House Lannister lose influence. 

Nobody gaines power or respect by refusing to fight or by joining battles late (see 'the Late Lord Frey') and chaotic times are always great for improving the importance of your house if you are a capable military leader and know how to play the game.

 

Staying out of the war only brings disadvantages: 

If the the rebel alliance wins then House Lannister will overnight turn from being the most powerful

house after the Targs into only being the 5th most powerful house in the realm. The Baratheon/Stark/Tully/Arryn alliance has no reason to grant the Lannisters any kind of influence during Robert's reign. He also endangers Jamie's life in case the rebels manage to sack KL. 5 of the 7 KG members died defending the Targs (and Barristan would have died if Robert had not intervened) so chances that something might happen to Jaime were high, too high for Tywin to risk it, no matter how pissed off he was with King Aerys.

And if the Targ forces win the war his position of neutrality will again cost him. It will be noted that the Westerlands ignored the King at a time of great peril unlike Dorne and Highgarden who helped defend the IT and will be rewarded with influental positions.

 

I totally get that Tywin doesn't want to defend the Mad King or rally his bannermen because Aerys ordered him to but what if Prince Rhaegar had personally reached out to him? 

 

Looking at Rhaegar's position it seems even more obvious how useful an alliance with Tywin would have been for him. He is already fighting 4 Great Houses and he knows that Lord Tywin who currently stays neutral in the conflict hates his father for stealing his heir. At the very least he should personally assure himself that the Westerlands will keep staying out of the fighting since if they decided to join the rebels Rhaegar must know he will lose the war.

But let's say they are already in contact by raven, why not ask him to join him personally (not fight for his father but for Rhaegar himself)? Many people believe that the changes Rhaegar mentioned in his last conversation with Jaime was him planning to overthrow his father after the war with the help of a the Great Council. If that's true then he could offer Tywin his old postion as Hand back and more importantly promise to release Jaime (with honours) from his KG duty once he's the new king.

 

An alliance would be extremely beneficial for both of them, so why didn't it happen like that in the books?

 

I think Rhaegar reached out to Tywin a bit too late and when the Westerland bannermen were assembled and ready to go to the Trident Rhaegar was already dead. Tywin realized that with the prince dead the war was lost (also the Handship and getting Jaime back all depended on Rhaegar) and changed direction and sides in the war and rushed his men to KL to sack the city/save Jaime/order the killing of Targ children/prove to Robert&Co that he was on their side.

 

Why does no one ever talk about this secret pact?

 

Only the Westermen riding with Tywin know about it and he made it clear to them that no word about this alliance is allowed to ever get out and that the loyalty of the Westerlands to Robert's cause must not ever be doubted. 

 

Why does it matter?

 

Now that most of the key players of Robert's Rebellion and especially Tywin himself are dead some Westermen who stayed silent for years (out of fear and/or respect) might start talking

 

It might change Dany's opinion about House Lannister if she ever finds out about it

 

It would be a revelation that turns reader expectations upside down

 

It would explain Tywin's and Rhaegar's odd behaviour during RR (Tywin not willing to get engaged in the conflict until literally the final moment, Rhaegar overly confident that he will win at the Trident against very strong enemies)

 

 

 



#2 Kienn

Kienn

    Ard Tiarna

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,032 posts

Posted 28 February 2014 - 09:57 AM

It was perfectly in character for Tywin, he's a lot like Walder Frey,

#3 Roddy the Ruin

Roddy the Ruin

    Leader of the Winter Wolves and Badass Extraordinaire

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,645 posts

Posted 28 February 2014 - 10:20 AM

It was perfectly in character for Tywin, he's a lot like Walder Frey,

except Trywin is smarter

#4 Gneisenau

Gneisenau

    Got lost trying to find Greywater Watch

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,668 posts

Posted 28 February 2014 - 10:21 AM

We don't really know Rhaegar's character aside from a few hearsay POVs, so we can't really conclude anything.

#5 shearstone

shearstone

    Noble

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 539 posts

Posted 28 February 2014 - 10:41 AM

If Rhaegar thought he was going to get reinforces from Tywin he wouldn't have marched his army into enemy territory until he received Tywin's men. Only an idiot would actively seek battle with a 10,000 men advantage when they can wait a few days and attack with a 25,000 men advantage.

 

So that leads me to believe there was no pact and Tywin acted perfectly reasonably, had Rhaegar won Tywin would have either done nothing, safe in Casterly Rock or attacked Riverrun as a show of loyalty to the throne. Instead Rhaegar loses and he uses the delay of the rebels to take the city first as a show of loyalty to Robert. He could have joined the rebels earlier but why bother? Ned and Robert were young and Tywin had no way of knowing how competent they'd be, it was better from his point of view to wait and see. It's not like we have any examples of the rebels actively courting Tywin's support.


Edited by shearstone, 28 February 2014 - 10:54 AM.


#6 Stannis Eats No Peaches

Stannis Eats No Peaches

    Compulsive Editor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,639 posts

Posted 28 February 2014 - 10:58 AM

I actually think it fits Tywin's character perfectly. Why take a risk? He wasn't involved in the murders of Rickard and Brandon, but he also didn't like the Targaryens. By keeping out of it he could pick the winning side.

#7 C0bR

C0bR

    Gwynbleidd

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,792 posts

Posted 28 February 2014 - 11:07 AM

I actually think it fits Tywin's character perfectly. Why take a risk? He wasn't involved in the murders of Rickard and Brandon, but he also didn't like the Targaryens. By keeping out of it he could pick the winning side.

Basically this. He was not going to gain anything if he sided with the Targs from the beggining since Aerys and he hated each other and Rhaegar was too much of a naive idiot to be able to dethrone his father. If the Targs had won, he would've performed an act of loyalty to them similar to the Sack of KL which was a calculated act of loyalty towards the Rebels' side. He probably also had a good reason to believe that he could offer Robert Cersei since Lyanna would've been either dead or very badly soiled and not a queenly material after the end of war.

 

From Rhaegar's side this would also require the Rainman to have:

1) Common sense

2) Political acumen

 

and I am afraid he did not possess either.


Edited by C0bR, 28 February 2014 - 11:22 AM.


#8 mezmerised

mezmerised

    Sellsword

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 124 posts

Posted 28 February 2014 - 11:18 AM

It was perfectly in character for Tywin, he's a lot like Walder Frey,

 

Really?

I always got the impression that Walder Frey is afraid of going into battle and Tywin is not. What does he even have to be afraid of? He has lots of bannermen, is a quite capable commander, leads his men from behind (little risk of getting hurt in battle) and due to his wealth and social position has a very good chance to get ransomed if he ever gets captured. Unless he fears for the lives of the people fighting for him I'd say he's quite safe.

I think the two things Tywin fears the most are: not getting the respect he feels he deserves and losing Jaime as his heir, both of which could have happened if he did nothing during RR.

 

Gneisenau, on 28 Feb 2014 - 4:21 PM, said:

 

We don't really know Rhaegar's character aside from a few hearsay POVs, so we can't really conclude anything.

 

 

 

True, but we can assume that he knows Tywin best of all the Lords in the realm since he served as Hand in KL while Rhaegar was growing up. If I were him I'd try to get Tywin on my side before going into the most important batte of my life. 

 

 

If Rhaegar thought he was going to get reinforces from Tywin he wouldn't have marched his army into enemy territory until he received Tywin's men. Only an idiot would actively seek battle with a 10,000 men advantage when they can wait a few days and attack with a 25,000 men advantage.

 

So that leads me to believe there was no pact and Tywin acted perfectly reasonably, had Rhaegar won Tywin would have either done nothing, safe in Casterly Rock or attacked Riverrun as a show of loyalty to the throne. Instead Rhaegar loses and he uses the delay of the rebels to take the city first as a show of loyalty to Robert. He could have joined the rebels earlier but why bother? Ned and Robert were young and Tywin had no way of knowing how competent they'd be, it was better from his point of view to wait and see. It's not like we have any examples of the rebels actively courting Tywin's support.

 

Yes, that part of my theory is a bit weak :) Maybe Tywin's men were delayed or Rhaegar couldn't wait any longer for some reason. I don't know we don't have enough info about what happened at the Trident.

 

But imo even from the things we do know Rhaegar acted like a bit of an idiot anyway. Or at least like a very over-confident, risk-taking, slightly delusional, prophecy-believing young man.



#9 John Suburbs

John Suburbs

    Noble

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 580 posts

Posted 28 February 2014 - 11:45 AM

I think it was cold, hard calculus on Tywin's part.

 

Supporting the Targs would not have increased his house's position. If they won, the rift with the MK would probably never have healed. If they lost, they would have lost lands, titles, honors are the hands of KR.

 

Supporting the rebels might help his house, but only if they won.

 

So you have a loss/loss with the Targs but a win/loss with the rebels.

 

The key is timing and the Trident was the deciding factor. No matter who won or lost, Tywin would have marched.

 

And yes, in the post-war world he still had two key pieces to play, again all in the name of enhancing his house: Cersei and the vast gold deposits he controls.



#10 TheHouseHB

TheHouseHB

    Landed Knight

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 452 posts

Posted 28 February 2014 - 11:49 AM

I doubt Tywin would have sided with the Targs even Rhaegar if Aerys made sweet love to Joanna at Tywins wedding.



#11 John Suburbs

John Suburbs

    Noble

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 580 posts

Posted 28 February 2014 - 04:01 PM

No, it must have been long after Tywin's wedding because Tyrion is, what, nine years younger than J/C. That is what you're referring to, right?

#12 Kienn

Kienn

    Ard Tiarna

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,032 posts

Posted 28 February 2014 - 04:07 PM

I doubt Tywin would have sided with the Targs even Rhaegar if Aerys made sweet love to Joanna at Tywins wedding.


If Aerys did indeed do that - Tywin served as hand for at least 16 years afterwards...

#13 mezmerised

mezmerised

    Sellsword

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 124 posts

Posted 28 February 2014 - 05:38 PM

I think it was cold, hard calculus on Tywin's part.

 

Supporting the Targs would not have increased his house's position. If they won, the rift with the MK would probably never have healed. If they lost, they would have lost lands, titles, honors are the hands of KR.

 

Supporting the rebels might help his house, but only if they won.

 

So you have a loss/loss with the Targs but a win/loss with the rebels.

 

The key is timing and the Trident was the deciding factor. No matter who won or lost, Tywin would have marched.

 

And yes, in the post-war world he still had two key pieces to play, again all in the name of enhancing his house: Cersei and the vast gold deposits he controls.

 

But supporting the Targs would help House Lannister if Rhaegar had decided to dethrone his father and become King himself right after the war was won. I don't think that even the Targs themselves believed that Aerys could stay on the throne, he was getting more crazy and paranoid every day. And once Rhaegar was king he could reinstate Tywin as Hand and release Jaime from the KG, so Tywin regains his political influence and his heir. And all Tywin has to do is call his bannermen together and support Rhaegar at the Trident.

That would give the royal troops a much better chance at winning the battle, with much more men plus the element of surprise because Robert&Co wouldn't expect the Westermen to show up.

 

When Tywin and Tyrion talk about the sack of KL in ASOS there is this exchange

 

"Far be it from me to question your cunning; Father, but in your place I do believe I'd have let Robert Baratheon bloody his own hands."...

 

"You deserve that motley, then. We had come late to Robert's cause. It was necessary to demonstrate our loyalty. When I laid those bodies before the throne, no man could doubt that we had forsakenHouse Targaryen forever."

 

 

and also this

 

"I had more pressing concerns. Ned Stark's van was rushing south from the Trident, and I feared it might come to swords between us. And it was in Aerys to murder Jaime, with no more cause than spite. That was the thing I feared most. That, and what Jaime himself might do."

 

 

I don't know, but all this sounds to me as if Tywin regrets showing up so late and was extremely worried about Jaime. But why would he regret it if it was his own choice to only join the war after Rhaegar lost at the Trident?



#14 The Doctor's Consort

The Doctor's Consort

    Disruptive Influence.

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,640 posts

Posted 01 March 2014 - 07:15 AM

It was perfectly in character for Tywin, he's a lot like Walder Frey,

This. Tywin played it safe he followed the victor only after it was clear  who won the war.



#15 shearstone

shearstone

    Noble

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 539 posts

Posted 01 March 2014 - 08:02 AM

 

But supporting the Targs would help House Lannister if Rhaegar had decided to dethrone his father and become King himself right after the war was won. I don't think that even the Targs themselves believed that Aerys could stay on the throne, he was getting more crazy and paranoid every day. And once Rhaegar was king he could reinstate Tywin as Hand and release Jaime from the KG, so Tywin regains his political influence and his heir. And all Tywin has to do is call his bannermen together and support Rhaegar at the Trident.

That would give the royal troops a much better chance at winning the battle, with much more men plus the element of surprise because Robert&Co wouldn't expect the Westermen to show up.

 

I don't know, but all this sounds to me as if Tywin regrets showing up so late and was extremely worried about Jaime. But why would he regret it if it was his own choice to only join the war after Rhaegar lost at the Trident?

 

He could ask Robert to release Jaime anyway remember it was extremely odd for Robert to keep the same members of the Kingsguard as Aery's most people would have assumed they wouldn't be welcome at the new court and Robert would prefer his own men as kingsguard. We also have the issue of why Tywin left the hand ship which was over the servant can't marry my daughter issue which Rhaegar couldn't have resolved anyway so Cersei would not be able to marry a prince/king. Robert couldn't help either as long as Lyanna Stark was alive so neither side really could offer Tywin anything significant to make him choose one side or the other whilst the result is in doubt. 

 

The exchange about needing to race to King Landing is simple he needed to prove he was loyal to Robert once the battle had been decided. He was worried Ned would fight him as from Ned's POV Tywin is a loyalist until he proves otherwise his army is marching to Kings Landing and hasn't declared for Robert, So Tywin is right to be concerned as Tywin needed to show he was on Roberts side and Kings Landing was an effective statement. Also his timing was smart as had Rhaegar won Tywin would have made it to Kings Landing and declared his loyalty to the throne saying he raced to Kings Landing to help defend it should the rebels prevail at the trident (exactly how he got the gates open but this time following through). 

 

He might well regret showing up so late now he knows the outcome, we often look back on our decisions and regret them it doesn't mean the choice was any different to what we know. It's likely Tywin regrets not joining the Rebels sooner as being seen as a more ardent supporter of Roberts may have granted Tywin the influence to gain more concessions out of the new regime such as getting Jaime released from his vows,


Edited by shearstone, 01 March 2014 - 08:04 AM.


#16 Waylin Stark

Waylin Stark

    The Frost King

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,552 posts

Posted 01 March 2014 - 08:07 AM

Tywin had nothing to gain by helping the Targaryens. He already hated Aerys, and Robert's Rebellion was strong from the start, there was a mighty chance he would win. 



#17 Robert the Great

Robert the Great

    Freerider

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 69 posts

Posted 01 March 2014 - 10:00 AM

I really doubt they were in contact. if Rhaegar had sent a raven tywin would have probably put the scroll in the same place he'd put all of the other requests he'd gotten.

Reasons for Tywin not coming to Rhaegar's cause earlier would probably include:
Rhaegar's married and has an heir
That whole running away with the Warden's daughter and fiance of the Lord of Storms End would make Rhaegar seem at the least a man weak to his emotions and at the worst a reckless lunatic.
Rhaegar's failure to take at an action at an earlier point of the Rebellion wouldn't have gone unnoticed.

Joining the rebels earlier would have been slightly more beneficial for Tywin:
**He could finally get back at Aerys for that "servant" slight, plus for taking away his heir.
Robert was SINGLE and had no heirs.
jaime would have been released from his duties.
he'd get his heir back plus he'd be able to make his daughter a queen.

But he also couldn't openly join the Rebels because:
Jaime was at Aerys side.
Robert was young and he could have easily died as a result of his great valor in Battle.
It wouldn't be wise to bet CR and the Lannister name on two young boys and an old man.

Edited by Robert the Great, 01 March 2014 - 10:02 AM.


#18 Jon Snow the Omniscient

Jon Snow the Omniscient

    Freerider

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 56 posts

Posted 01 March 2014 - 10:07 AM

Trywin

LOL. I love it.

Tywin is such a try-hard.



#19 mezmerised

mezmerised

    Sellsword

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 124 posts

Posted 01 March 2014 - 10:11 AM

This. Tywin played it safe he followed the victor only after it was clear  who won the war.

 

But staying out of the war isn't playing it safe. The only thing he keeps safe by doing so is the life of his bannermen (and since when has Tywin ever been concerned about them?) while risking the life of his own son and heir. Almost all the KG died defending the Targs how could he know that Jaime would survive?

The thing Tywin cares about most is his legacy and that the Lannister name will be carried on for generations to come and he always considered Jaime his only heir. If Jaime died during RR then in Tywin's mind the Lannister line ends with his own death.

 

He also knew he had to join the war eventually and then had to go above and beyond to prove his loyalty to the winner of the war.

I mean he ordered the murder of two small children of royal blood, how much more despicable can you get? That's a pretty strong stain on any man's reputation, even a man like Tywin, and it also brought him the eternal hatred and enmity of House Martell. Would it not have been safer and easier for him to just take part in a battle?

 

 

 

He could ask Robert to release Jaime anyway remember it was extremely odd for Robert to keep the same members of the Kingsguard as Aery's most people would have assumed they wouldn't be welcome at the new court and Robert would prefer his own men as kingsguard. We also have the issue of why Tywin left the hand ship which was over the servant can't marry my daughter issue which Rhaegar couldn't have resolved anyway so Cersei would not be able to marry a prince/king. Robert couldn't help either as long as Lyanna Stark was alive so neither side really could offer Tywin anything significant to make him choose one side or the other whilst the result is in doubt. 

 

The exchange about needing to race to King Landing is simple he needed to prove he was loyal to Robert once the battle had been decided. He was worried Ned would fight him as from Ned's POV Tywin is a loyalist until he proves otherwise his army is marching to Kings Landing and hasn't declared for Robert, So Tywin is right to be concerned as Tywin needed to show he was on Roberts side and Kings Landing was an effective statement. Also his timing was smart as had Rhaegar won Tywin would have made it to Kings Landing and declared his loyalty to the throne saying he raced to Kings Landing to help defend it should the rebels prevail at the trident (exactly how he got the gates open but this time following through). 

 

He might well regret showing up so late now he knows the outcome, we often look back on our decisions and regret them it doesn't mean the choice was any different to what we know. It's likely Tywin regrets not joining the Rebels sooner as being seen as a more ardent supporter of Roberts may have granted Tywin the influence to gain more concessions out of the new regime such as getting Jaime released from his vows,

 

Tywin resigned as Hand because Aerys 'stole' Jaime from him not over the Cersei matter (that was several years before in Lannisport when the twins were 11yo iirc).

And yes he could have asked all these things from Robert and he probably has asked to have Jaime released from his vows but was ignored.

 

But I don't think they would have tried to make any kind of deals with each other before the sack of KL. Robert and Tywin didn't know each other and Robert had enough other allies, he didn't need the Westerlands to win the war.

Rhaegar knew Tywin all his life, he witnessed him rule his father's Kingdoms, he must have known how angered he was about losing his heir to the KG and Rhaegar, unlike Robert, needed support in the war. Strengthwise both sides were probably evenly matched but the momentum so far was on Robert's side. 

 

And as for Tywin's regret: why would he regret not joining Robert's cause sooner when it was his own very calculated move not to fight any battles until the winner was clear and the war all but over? Why would he admit in retrospect to being afraid for Jaime's life but did nothing for months during RR when he had the chance to keep his son at least a bit safer by joining the war?

 

 

Tywin had nothing to gain by helping the Targaryens. He already hated Aerys, and Robert's Rebellion was strong from the start, there was a mighty chance he would win. 

 

But he had even less to gain from doing nothing.

 

Staying out of the war means that Jaime's life remains very much in danger and that the reputation of House Lannister suffers.


Edited by mezmerised, 01 March 2014 - 10:16 AM.


#20 The Doctor's Consort

The Doctor's Consort

    Disruptive Influence.

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,640 posts

Posted 01 March 2014 - 12:48 PM

But staying out of the war isn't playing it safe. The only thing he keeps safe by doing so is the life of his bannermen (and since when has Tywin ever been concerned about them?) while risking the life of his own son and heir. Almost all the KG died defending the Targs how could he know that Jaime would survive?

The thing Tywin cares about most is his legacy and that the Lannister name will be carried on for generations to come and he always considered Jaime his only heir. If Jaime died during RR then in Tywin's mind the Lannister line ends with his own death.

Evan Jaime doesn't matter to Tywin more than the victory, remember what happened with RW when he had made the deal before Jaime's release. Staying out of the war and just join the victors was playing safe and this is what he did.

He also knew he had to join the war eventually and then had to go above and beyond to prove his loyalty to the winner of the war.

I mean he ordered the murder of two small children of royal blood, how much more despicable can you get? That's a pretty strong stain on any man's reputation, even a man like Tywin, and it also brought him the eternal hatred and enmity of House Martell. Would it not have been safer and easier for him to just take part in a battle?

No it wouldn't. I don't think that he gave a damn about reputation and what Martells thought because he had to ensure his loyalty without loses, if he participated at the war then that would be impossible.


Edited by Jon's Queen Consort, 01 March 2014 - 12:48 PM.