What was the real cause of Jon Arryn's death? What happened one year before?

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

So, most of the action in the series seems to kick off with the death of Jon Arryn.

After all, Jon Arryn dies, which leads to Robert's visit to Winterfell, which leads to Ned coming to King's Landing and Bran seeing Cersei with Jamie. And Stark-Lannister annimosity leads to Varys accelerating the Essos front.

But wait a minute. Action is actually already in motion. In fact, "something" seemed to happen one year prior. SInce,

1) Jon Arryn was already snooping around

2) The Tyrells and Renly already knew about Cercei and were planning on Marge marrying Robert.

3) People are already arguing about Sweetrobin's fostering

4) Illyrio had already taken Viserys and Dany.

5) Mance was already collecting the Wildlings.

Now, magic returning can explain 4 and 5 since Red Priests might have told Illyrio that Dany was special and the White Walkers motivated Mance into action.

But, what caused Jon Arryn to suddenly start snooping after so many years? And who tipped off the Tyrells after so many years? And why all of this sudden interest in Sweetrobin?

[Yago]

Jon Arryn was snooping around because Stannis had told him about his suspicions @Robert's kids.

[A Bastard Snow]

Littlefinger is the one who set the Jon Arryn plot in motion the rest don't really matter at all.

The Tyrell's want power and seeing as Cersei was old now they planned to introduce their hot 14 year old to him in the hopes he would remarry

even Renly shows a picture of Marge and asks Ned who the picture reminds him of to which he replies he doesn't know Renly is disappointed and states many people have said she looks like Lysanna (neds sister) Ned then jokes that Renly is going to emulate his brother by marrying someone that looks like Lysanna (she doesn't look at all like Lysanna but I suppose they hoped she looked enough like her to attract Robert)

[Martin's Ghost]

I suppose that as Robert's mismanagement of the realm continues and the crown needs to borrow more and more, the Lannister influence increases - which is bad news for Renly and Stannis. In addition, Littlefinger's power and resources continues to grow until the time is ripe to start shaking the tree. You could say that events were slowly and randomly falling into place where something had to happen.

It is still unknown why the white walkers become active again but it is clear that it is they who force Mance to organize the North. So far it seems to be no connection to what transpires south of the Wall.

[MyaStoned]

Stannis started Jon Arryn snooping, but what got Jon killed is Littlefinger's desire for the 'plot' to start, which he was able to do by taking advantage of Lysa's not wanting the child to foster on Dragonstone, which JA was going to have happen.

[MyaStoned]

The Lannister stuff was also coming to a head. Cersei had begun plotting to kill Robert, Renly had begun plotting with Highgarden to replace Cersei. It was just a matter of time, and Baelish gave it a little push.

[Oberoth]

Almost like the game has two players, and all the rest are just pieces.

[horizon]

Almost like the game has two players, and all the rest are just pieces.

Varys & Petyr.

;)

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Jon Arryn was snooping around because Stannis had told him about his suspicions @Robert's kids.

Okay, so here's my theory, then:

First event: Magic starts returning

Which leads to:

1) Mel seeing Stannis

2) Red Fatty seeing Dany's dragons

3) White Walkers awakening

Mel finds Stannis, tells him he will be king. He says "how?" and Mel tells him about Cercei and Jamie. Stannis tells Renly hoping Renly will support him, but Renly instead tells Loras and the Tyrells. Stannis also tells Jon Arynn. Jon Arynn wants to support Stannis, but needs more proof. Littefinger overhears, realizes that war is coming and initiates his plan to rule the Vale. Littlefinger tells Lysa that Jon Arynn wants to send Sweetrobin away. Lysa panics, kills Jon Arynn and flees for the Vale with Sweetrobin. With the death of Jon Arynn and Renly's cold shoulder, Stannis leaves KL for Dragonstone. Jon Arynn's snooping and death makes Cercei realize her days are numbered. Cercei starts planning to kill Robert.

Red Fatty seeks out the dragon eggs, which leads him to Illyrio. Red fatty tells Illyrio about Dany. Illyrio and Varys have their long standing Aegon plan, but now Illyrio is intrigued by Dany and feels she may help his Aegon plan in the end. Illyrio Invites Viserys and Dany to stay with him.

The White Walkers awaken and start killing Wildlings. Mance Rayder realizes that they need to organize and head south. All of the Wildling tribes, scared to death of the White Walkers, quickly get in line.