Jump to content

Jon Snow ReRead Project! Part 5! (DwD)


butterbumps!

Recommended Posts

Shireen

Although Selyse's party seems to be comprised entirely of fools, I felt that Shireen was actually portrayed rather sympathetically. She seems to be excited about meeting Wun Wun, and rather curious. Did anyone else get this vibe? If so, will it have important consequences later?

I believe Shireen will be Jon's queen and Wun Wun will be her sworn "maul".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If I say so myself, I think I have provided a plausible explanation with why the IB went ahead with the loan.

Sorry, didn't mean to seem like I am ignoring your post. But looking at the map, the shipping route is just too long. Even if food and wood are free, transporting them that far is bound to make them more expensive than supplies IB could buy closer to home. Not to mention that the Watch doesn't actually produce a huge surplus of food and needs to store what it has to survive winters.

Also, given that upcoming winter is supposed to be long and severe it is unlikely that tons of people are going to want to go and populate the Gifts come spring, even if there would be a peace with the wildlings. There is going to be room further south, in milder and more fertile regions, after winter and war-related dying-off is done.

Re: food, it would have made vastly more sense to make such an arrangement with the Vale, where, as we have heard from Sansa's chapters some lords are heavily in debt. And which is much more fertile and has better growing seasons than the Gifts.

Re: wood, it is not so clear-cut, but surely anything closer to Braavos would be preferrable?

So, sorry, but not convinced.

I don't see what possible scam she could have been trying to pull showing up alone and starving at the Wall.

Alys's one chance to gain a reprieve from an unwanted marriage is to cast suspicion on the allegiance and motivations of her usurping great-uncle and his brood. Which she does. As it happens, her information is true... but it could have been a desperate lie, too.

And no, she couldn't have gone to Stannis. He is too far away and on the move. Also, the Karhold contingent under her usurping relatives was travelling towards him too, there was a risk of running into them if she went in that direction. She might have gone to Last Hearth, I grant you. Why didn't she? Maybe she was too uncertain of her welcome, given split loyalties of the Umbers, maybe Cregan expected it and cut her off from that route. We just don't know, since Jon didn't think to ask.

These groups would be Stannis and the wildlings. Jon's options come down to this: fight them or feed them.

I don't want to get too far ahead, but Jon could have tried to tie help with repayment of the loan into his conditions for letting the wildlings cross. And no, one-time contribution of "wildling treasures" doesn't really count.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Julia H.

The 'wear no crowns' part of the oath is not just for Jon, though for the sake of the plot that is probably the major reason for its being there. The Targaryens are only a recent development in Westerosi history. Before, there were seven kings for seven kingdoms.

Just a nitpick.

Back to lurking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sorry, didn't mean to seem like I am ignoring your post. But looking at the map, the shipping route is just too long. Even if food and wood are free, transporting them that far is bound to make them more expensive than supplies IB could buy closer to home. Not to mention that the Watch doesn't actually produce a huge surplus of food and needs to store what it has to survive winters.

Also, given that upcoming winter is supposed to be long and severe it is unlikely that tons of people are going to want to go and populate the Gifts come spring, even if there would be a peace with the wildlings. There is going to be room further south, in milder and more fertile regions, after winter and war-related dying-off is done.

Re: food, it would have made vastly more sense to make such an arrangement with the Vale, where, as we have heard from Sansa's chapters some lords are heavily in debt. And which is much more fertile and has better growing seasons than the Gifts.

Re: wood, it is not so clear-cut, but surely anything closer to Braavos would be preferrable?

So, sorry, but not convinced.

What I described mostly involved around developing and exploiting the lands the Watch overseas in various ways. The assumption is that Tycho can tell the Watch is unlikely to be able to pay, so in return for what sum they end up giving them (which I don't believe it is much for the Iron Bank) they could gain rights to all these lands. Braavos fights numerous wars with other free cities and in this way it could secure a number of essential resources to them that would be out of reach of their opponents. For instance, the closest great forest is Qohor which is not under their control. Why not build shipyards in the North where timber is abundant and build their commercial fleet there?

I'm not sure I have figured it out but I can't think of any other collateral the Night's Watch has. Do you have a better idea? The only other alternative I can think offis that Tycho has heard about the Others and stuff and decided to pitch in. After all Armageddon is bad for business, no? The two are not mutually exclusive. Otherwise, we might be looking at a plot hole. But Dany also had a period in Slaver's bay during which everything looked peachy and consequences started coming out of the woodwork and bite her in the ass. I, personally am prepared to give the benefit of the doubt.

Alys's one chance to gain a reprieve from an unwanted marriage is to cast suspicion on the allegiance and motivations of her usurping great-uncle and his brood. Which she does. As it happens, her information is true... but it could have been a desperate lie, too.

And no, she couldn't have gone to Stannis. He is too far away and on the move. Also, the Karhold contingent under her usurping relatives was travelling towards him too, there was a risk of running into them if she went in that direction. She might have gone to Last Hearth, I grant you. Why didn't she? Maybe she was too uncertain of her welcome, given split loyalties of the Umbers, maybe Cregan expected it and cut her off from that route. We just don't know, since Jon didn't think to ask.

I disagree with that. What Arnolf does is usurpation (castellans don't make marriage arrangements) and the fact that he intended to betray Stannis should have no bearing on any decisions Jon might make about her. On the contrary given that we know the information to be true, she could very well ask Jon to write on her behalf to Stannis and add that little bit of information that so that she makes sure he gets rid of her uncle or at the very least earn points with Stannis. This is what Jon ends up doing for her, anyway. She appealed to Jon, however directly, which is considerably more risky in certain aspects.

I don't want to get too far ahead, but Jon could have tried to tie help with repayment of the loan into his conditions for letting the wildlings cross. And no, one-time contribution of "wildling treasures" doesn't really count.

That would not be a bad idea. Though I can imagine explaining the idea of a loan to most wildlings to be trial. He has told them though that he expects them to work for their food.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Julia H...


Re: the Mormont quote, and your phrase, "how far back the blood of the First Men can remember."... This is something that I find myself coming back to again and again - Jon's instincts. Sometimes , he he seems to instinctually do the right thing ( at least, what would be the right thing , according to what we know of the wishes of the CoTF and their magic )


It's not that I think he can do no wrong , or can't make mistakes ..certainly he can.. but there's a certain amount of just spontaneously feeling what he should do , before the actual rationale comes clear.(sort of like muscle memory , but in the blood)... I get the feeling this will only increase as his bond with Ghost becomes stronger.


I take a bit of a different view of his prayer at the weirwood grove. I think that the way GRRM has it arranged , hints that the merits of each stipulation should be weighed. The recruits recite the opening lines ,finishing with..


“It shall not end until my death.”


May those deaths be long in coming. Jon Snow sank to one knee in the snow. Gods of my fathers, protect these men. And Arya too, my little sister, wherever she might be. I pray you, let Mance find her and bring her safe to me.


I think it should be noted that the first ones Jon asks to be protected are the men of the NW , followed by Arya... and it should be remembered when we come to assessing his motivations in his last chapter. ( Along with the fact that he knows the Boltons may never have had Arya.)


“I shall take no wife, hold no lands, father no children,” the recruits promised, in voices that

echoed back through years and centuries. “I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post.”

Gods of the wood, grant me the strength to do the same, Jon Snow prayed silently. Give me the wisdom to know what must be done and the courage to do it.


(ETA; note, years and centuries , not millenia)


Though "Gods of the wood, grant me the strength to do the same," and "Give me the wisdom to know what must be done and the courage to do it" are written as two separate thoughts , I sense they should be attached by an important "BUT" . Having the wisdom to know what must be done may mean disregarding much of the section the recruits had just recited , and clarifying the meaning of the rest.


*I suspect wife and children will be the first to go. It will be difficult to maintain, when wildling and NW men are side by side , preforming the same duties and one is allowed to have a family while the other is not.


*Holding lands needs clarity. If The Gift is repopulated, I think a man could hold lands for the watch indefinitely , he just wouldn't be able to pass them on to his children. They would still belong to the watch..( I believe Jon only gave Stannis rights to the New Gift . Jon still has the original Gift to manage. .. Also, we have quite a way to go, and as Stannis pointed out , what was given once can be given again...)


*Living and dying at one's post also needs clarity. Yoren was at his post. Thorne was still at his post in KL. Sam is at his post in Oldtown. Benjen was at his post in Winterfell ( and may be, again). Jon was secretly at his post while with Mance.


*Crowns and glory require some thought..it may make a huge difference whether that is one's motivation (like Stannis) or whether these things are conferred as a result of having done the right thing by the people , fought the good fight , etc. ... Jon can refuse a title , but if he's a king in people's minds and they treat him as they would a king.. if they consider him to have won glory, even though he was just doing what must be done.. I can't see how this would be a wrong thing...or that it would bring the watch down.


We know that Jon would dearly love to be married and father children. He'd love to restore his family seat. He resisted Stannis' offer and prays for the strength to continue to resist these things .. but the wisdom to know what must be done may dictate changing all that.


More that should be considered about Alys :


Like Jon, Alys would understand that while " a daughter comes before a brother" in Northern rules of succession , that's not generally so in the South. She'd probably have the same uneasiness that Jon has about Stannis finding a husband for "Arya" , and feel that she'd be out of the frying pan and into the fire, if she turned to Stannis. (ETA: It's true she couldn't actually know where Stannis was. But she also couldn't know what other allies he had , and he might have been as eager to seize her lands as her uncles. )


I'd also find it hard to believe that there was no prior discussion of details .. on what conditions the marriage was contracted .. or that Alys would not have the right to refuse something Jon proposed. One thing Alys is not is meekly submissive.


Once again , there must have been considerable off-page discussion that we don't see and to say "Jon didn't think to ask" is not at all a safe judgement to make. We can only have seen a small fraction of Jon's actual interaction with Alys.


We don't know Harrion's fate , but if he survives , I think he'd approve , and be equally willing to give up bloodfeud as Alys is. Alys knows her father could be a hothead. So must Harrion. He'd know his father's murder of the two Lannister boys would have put his own life in jeopardy , and he's had a good long while to think about Roose's actions , and how they figured into his own situation.


Maia... re : Satin...


Satin is not said to be a bad steward , or ever said to be lazy.. He's probably less diligent with the fire because he's less experienced with laying a fire or being able to predict how long it will burn ( not surprising , considering his background ). Jon is unconcerned because he knows this will improve , over time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I definitely think that giving up everything the wildlings have in terms of Westerosi value does count for something. Then once they are South of the Wall and work for the NW, they may contribute towards the repayment as much as the regular brothers do. Besides, if the repayment is indeed based at least in part on timber coming from the North side of the Wall, then they will contribute their natural resources as well. If the wildlings settle down on the Gift, they can also contribute their products. Even if crops grown on the Gift may not be what the IB wants, wildling farmer families on the Gift could feed the NW in future (in return for the use of the land) allowing them to use other resources (like timber?) to repay the loan.



I like the idea that Tycho may be informed about the Others and realize how important the survival of the NW is.



By the time Jon Snow signed the parchment the Braavosi drew up, both of them were half-drunk and quite unhappy. Jon thought that a good sign.



This “unhappiness” is interesting. Is it just the mulled wine or something else? (BTW, the cold in Jon's room, due to the lack of fire, must have made the mulled wine even more popular with Tycho.)



After Jon's remark about dragons, Tycho says:



My lord jests. You will forgive me if I do not laugh. We Braavosi are descended from those who fled Valyria and the wroth of its dragonlords. We do not jape of dragons.



They may just as well realize that the threat the Others mean is not a joke either.



I wonder if the quote may also be a hint that Tycho had better not try to make a fool of Jon.



bemused...



The scene in the weirwood grove is one of the most beautifully written scenes (or perhaps the most beautiful scene) in the series so far.



Yes, I have also noticed that the first thing Jon prays for is protection for the men of the NW and then for Arya.



I completely agree that Jon is willing to stretch or reinterpret the text of the vow if necessary, as long as the essence of it is kept. It shows that he is a wise and open-minded leader, who realizes that times are changing and the NW must adapt to the new situation to have any hope of survival at all.



But I also think that at this point, Jon actually means to apply the words of the vow more strictly to himself, personally. He broke his vows with Ygrette, and that makes him more understanding and forgiving of the carnal weaknesses of his brothers, and taking women into his service may be an indication that he won't mind families in the NW in the long run, but he himself means to fully devote his life to service (yes, he wants to save his little sister when she is in danger, but that is not the same as seeking the comforts of a family for his own purposes).



He does not care for crowns, but he needs moral courage to endure all the opposition and hostility he must face, even the fact that he will be regarded (again) as a traitor by some, and the win no glory part of the vow applies to that.



The prayer strikes me as a renewed vow taken precisely because massive changes are underway and he needs the strength to remain "at his post". Of course, the post is not only a spot on the map (I completely agree that the black brothers are at their post in any place where they are sent as part of their service, but that was probably understood even before Jon). The “post” may also be the unpopular task he must carry out, the reorganization of the NW. Jon often uses the vow as a personal moral compass. Now he is praying for wisdom and courage to do what must be done, but the renewed vow may confirm that despite the necessary changes, there will also be continuity. He will keep what really matters (the shield that guards the realms of men), and his own life, his own sacrifice will seal this promise.



Having said that, I really, really like your analysis. My interpretation of the prayer focuses on what the vow might mean to Jon personally, but your prediction of the changes in the NW (and consequently the rewording or reinterpretation of the vow) is very exciting.



Years and centuries instead of millennia... That's something I haven't noticed before. Does it mean the words of the vow are not as old as the Watch? I could imagine that the restrictions (first part) may be relatively new, but the second part must come from the First Men. That's the only way “the realms of men” makes sense. Later they would have said “the kingdom” or “the Seven Kingdoms”. The realms of men … once there were no other men in Westeros but the First Men, and the enemy was the Others, not the wildlings. These words must be original. These are also the words that Jon will never give up.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Julia H ..


Yes, I agree that Jon ,at this point, isn't thinking that a wife , children etc. will ever be a possibility for him, because he means to stay true to his vow . It's just that in recognising the true foundation is in guarding the realms of men,he's taken an important first step. And in the circumstances that seem likely to be facing him in the future, the other components seem bound to come into question.


I think the opening two statements , " Night gathers, and now my watch begins. It shall not end until my death." are very old , with their focus on night. The Others come by night and the Watch may have been formed following The Long Night... I think the final section is very old as well.


And yes, I meant to point out that "years and centuries" comes as they're reciting what I think are the newer (political) additions to the oath. GRRM places it between wives , lands and children and crowns and glory. ... All this is rounded off by , " I shall live and die at my post."... but even that may be a newer addition.


As Jon finishes his prayer, the recruits are going on to what I think forms the original body of the oath , all the statements preceded by "I am" - what they promise to be and to do - sword ,watcher, fire , light , horn, shield.

This is the point where Jon really fixes on" the shield that guards the realms of men" in his mind, including the wildlings in the equation ... and where Ghost " nuzzled up against his shoulder " ( in agreement ?).


The vow then ends with “I pledge my life and honor to the Night’s Watch, for this night and all the nights to come.” ... To me, this closing statement coupled with the opening , "It shall not end until my death" , pretty well covers all contingencies and "I shall live and die at my post" seems not only redundant , but has a slight punitive ring , by comparison.


Re: Tycho - I've always thought Tycho may know more about the Others than is apparent on the page. It's obvious something would have been told to him at Eastwatch , and he may have heard of reports that were sent out from the Watch, and scoffed at in the south ,if the IB has eyes and ears in many places. He will have had some explanation from Jon. He seems more open - minded in regard to supernatural beings, than most Westerosi , but why ?


I just want to bring the Moonsingers up again. If they did evolve from wildling slaves (even if they have no prophecies), they can have carried some tales or knowledge with them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

bemused...



That is fascinating. I've been intrigued by the words of the vow from the start, and your theory is very convincing.



Now, this has probably been said before, but I'm a newbie still enjoying the excitement of the first discoveries: The important turning points of Jon's career in the NW can be related to different parts of the vow. He is the watcher on the walls during the Battle of the Wall, he is the horn that wakes the sleepers when he arrives back at Castle Black to alert the garrison to the danger coming from the South, he is the fire that burns against the cold when he kills a white walker with fire (and burns down the Lord Commander's tower in the process). Killing Quorin Halfhand may be connected with the sword in the darkness (though the darkness is symbolic rather than literal), and as Lord Commander, he becomes the shield that guards the realms of men (all men, wildlings included). I believe he will be the light that brings the dawn when he wields Lightbringer and / or when the Others are defeated.



The reason why I have said all that is that I'm curious to read about any further thoughts on these connections by those who have read ASoIaF several times.



I'll check out the Moonsingers...


Link to comment
Share on other sites

so in return for what sum they end up giving them (which I don't believe it is much for the Iron Bank) they could gain rights to all these lands.

I believe that money needed to feed at least 10K people for several years of winter when the food can only be imported from far away via treacherous winter seas (I am surprised that they even have navigation in winter that far north, personally) at least until/unless Stannis wins in the south, would be quite significant even for IB.

And I doubt that the Night's Watch is free to give it's land away either.

To me so far, the only reasonable explanation of Tycho's generosity is knowledge of the Others and desire to forestall their incursion into Westeros, where IB has quite a lot of interests.

OTOH, the Lysene galleys with captured wildlings only arrived at Braavos after Nestoris already left, according to the timeline. He would have heard some things at Eastwatch, no doubt, but they would have come second and third-hand. This weakens the argument considerably, as Nestoris would have had to offer Jon's loan on his own cognizance, without the backing of IB. Unless IB knew about the Others from some other source? But then, why did they only act when they decided that they needed Stannis? So, yes, a conundrum.

I disagree with that. What Arnolf does is usurpation (castellans don't make marriage arrangements) and the fact that he intended to betray Stannis should have no bearing on any decisions Jon might make about her.

I dare say that Alys hoped that the news about her usurping relatives being secretly allied with Boltons would garner Jon's sympathy and support. Particularly since Jon is also probably rumored to be in Stannis's pocket. And she needed Jon's protection immediately, since her cousin was hot on her heels.

Stannis was much farther away, it was far more dangerous for her to try to reach him, since her great-uncles force was between her and Stannis, he may not have believed her and, as has been mentioned, Stannis as a king may have tried to immediately arrange another match for her, one in which she wouldn't have had any say.

While Jon, by virtue of not being a king, was a better bet for more hands-off approach, which would have left Alys her agency and certain freedom of choice.

And yes, I meant to point out that "years and centuries" comes as they're reciting what I think are the newer (political) additions to the oath. GRRM places it between wives , lands and children and crowns and glory. ... All this is rounded off by , " I shall live and die at my post."... but even that may be a newer addition.

I don't think so. IMHO, giving up "wives , lands and children and crowns and glory" was even more necessary for NW to function back in the early days, when Westeros consisted of hundreds of petty kingdoms. Allowing people who joined NW to breed heirs, who'd then be free to go back south and fight for their inheritances or pursue their fathers feuds would have resulted in awful anarchy and quick demise of NW as an organization.

In fact, Alys's visit highlights why NW is an important valve in Westerosi society still. Namely, she asked Jon if there was "blood feud" between them. And why? Because her father, who was clearly guilty, who insulted and betrayed Robb to his face, was justly and deservedly executed.

And Jon himself thought that Axell Florent was as bad as a kinslayer, for not trying to prevent his brother's execution by any means necessary.

I.e. it seems that it is very difficult for Westerosi lords to execute their vassals, no matter how deservedly, without becoming mired in blood feuds with the delinquents' families. Without an option to ship noble criminals to NW, with all it's restrictions, "root and stem" approach to dealing with rebellious/guilty Houses would have been far more widespread and, frankly, necessary.

Also, NW members having families to feed and protect, would prevent them from carrying out their duties. Who could go on a months-long ranging during a harvest season, knowing that their family is likely to starve as a result? Who wouldn't be tempted to ensure that their children inherit the piece of NW property that they are managing? Etc., etc. Basically, the end result would be normal feudal lordships, mired in usual interests and conflicts of such and not having attention to spare for maintaining the Wall or ranging the lands beyond it.

Not to mention, that in the above situation nobody would care to offer common criminals any costly alternatives (which transportation to the Wall is) to their punishments either. Nor would people living at the Wall want them.

Basically, there are negative repercussions to the scenarios where NW abandons it's vows and customs, which are too seldom taken into account in discussions of the future of the NW, I feel.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe that money needed to feed at least 10K people for several years of winter when the food can only be imported from far away via treacherous winter seas (I am surprised that they even have navigation in winter that far north, personally) at least until/unless Stannis wins in the south, would be quite significant even for IB.

And I doubt that the Night's Watch is free to give it's land away either.

To me so far, the only reasonable explanation of Tycho's generosity is knowledge of the Others and desire to forestall their incursion into Westeros, where IB has quite a lot of interests.

OTOH, the Lysene galleys with captured wildlings only arrived at Braavos after Nestoris already left, according to the timeline. He would have heard some things at Eastwatch, no doubt, but they would have come second and third-hand. This weakens the argument considerably, as Nestoris would have had to offer Jon's loan on his own cognizance, without the backing of IB. Unless IB knew about the Others from some other source? But then, why did they only act when they decided that they needed Stannis? So, yes, a conundrum.

I think if I go on nitpicking about fictional economics, we would be veering away from the heart of the matter, which seems to be if the loan is a deus ex machina and/or a plot hole. To do that we should examine the if this has been effectively set up. The whole story of the IT defaulting on the IB has been one of the issues of Cersei's reign in the previous book so the presence of Tycho is I believe sufficiently justified. If he is not ex machina is he a deus? To some degree, yes. Jon is presented with a seemingly insurmountable obstacle for which he has no answer and Tycho appears with a soltuion in hand. In my view it is not an unambiguous and easy solution. As you mentioned having the funds for food is merely the beginning as they have to find it (if this the kind of winter we expect food will be getting progressively scarcer everywhere) and transporting it to the Watch. So, it is more like a hope of survival rather than a solution.

The potential plot hole is the reason for the IB granting the loan as it seems almost impossible for the Watch to pay for it. The author, however, has Jon saying practically immediately after the deal is made (the details of which we are uaware off) that something is fishy. That seems a lot lie an alarm bell that there will be consequences of an unpleasant nature for Jon and the Watch. We should keep in mind that repayment of the loan itself should be beyond the scope of the series and that the Watch appears to be facing an existencial crisis even before the first shipment of food arrives. So what could those consequences might be?

I can think of two:

1. The terms are so severe that they might be used as justificaiton for Jon's assassination. ie He sold the Watch to the Iron Bank.

2. It sets up the Iron Bank as an involved party in yet another Westerosi story arc. Tycho could return to the Wall and demand to have a say in the Watch's decisions.

Now as to the Iron Bank agreeing to a loan for other reasons than immediate financial profit. I can't see why the Iron Bank as an institution would care about wildlings at Hardhome or elsewhere. As for the Others ... Tycho Nestoris speaks the common tongue impeccably and since he is chosen to represent the Bank in Westeros presumably he is quite familiar with its geography and its customs and some of its folklore. Surely he has heard of the Others. To find out that they are real and are brutally exterminating people must be disconcerting but it is quite a distance from commiting the Iron Bank to the fight against them. While it may have played a part in his decision I can't see this being the deciding factor for a financial institution, unless they have established the full extent of the threat to their financial interests. The Iron Bank having access to mystical sources of knowledge is not out of the question for a fantasy novel, but I prefer not to go there unless explicitely driven by the text, because one can assume anything.

This got me thinking a bit about Tycho Nestoris. He presents quite the colorful figure and is remarkably non-challant about meeting a gruesome end. He also must be quite high-ranking if he is sent to treat with kings and take decisions on behalf of the Iron Bank. But then where is his retinue? One could say that three whole ships count are more than enough retinue, but shouldn't he have his own guards? Well, maybe it is courteous to entrust his security of his hosts...

Also did anybody else notice that he is described like Vargo Hoat's twin?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regarding the Iron Bank loan I think it is important to factor in the circumstances. The Iron Ban will have its due. The Iron Bank has a reputation with regard to consequences for not repaying it. That reputation has a considerable value in and of itself. The current occupant of the Iron Throne must go in order to maintain this reputation and to a large extent the profitability, or lack thereof in a loan to Stannis, isn't the paramount issue. The Iron Bank has already called in all of its outstanding loans to Westeros merchants and refused new loans according to Cersei's POV. This is a general principle act based on Cersei's choice to withhold repayment that runs counter to their bottom line financial interests (since these Westeros loans were profitable enough prior to Cersei's defiance.) It seems that having its due is far more important than the rate of return and may even be important enough to endure losses.



Tycho needs to reach Stannis and Jon has the means to get him there. Jon is also the one who got Stannis to where he is now using those same paths. Jon is the one safeguarding Stannis' wife and heir which can't have been missed by the guy who travelled with said wife and heir to meet Jon. Tycho's mission is to make an offer to Stannis and help get him the Iron Throne should Stannis accept. Tycho's immediate need demonstrates how vital Jon is to that goal. There's a Wildling horde threatening the safe haven of Stannis' heir and Jon intends to turn them into an army protecting that heir and Wun Wun serves as a huge piece of evidence that Jon can succeed in that endeavor. Jon may be currently attempting to walk a fine line with not taking part, but pragmatically he's still vital to a successful Stannis. This would all be quite apparent to Tycho. So aside from the natural resources the Watch can offer Braavos, there's the role they'll play in getting Stannis the throne (one they've already begun to play) and the distinct possibility that a Tycho would expect Stannis to make good on any shortfall on the Watch's part in repaying that loan. Additionally, by making that loan to Jon and not to Stannis, Tycho may believe that the Iron Throne is ultimately responsible for that debt and therefore even if Stannis loses the Iron Bank may still be able to collect payment for the Watch's loan from whoever the ultimate winner is.



For all Tywin's talk of making Slynt LC and Cersei's plotting to assassinate Jon, the Lannister Iron Throne has never declared Jon attainted even after sheltering Stannis. Jon's paper shield could eventually serve as a paper knee cap breaking cudgel for debt collectors in Braavos. The relative weakness of the Watch allows the Iron Throne to be arbitrary and capricious in their mutual dealings but when a powerful outside organization like the Iron Bank becomes involved the rule of law starts to apply again. The failure to publicly condemn Jon and instead rely on private plots technically leaves him as LC in good standing according to even Tommen Beethater First of his Name. I don't foresee circumstances unfolding where this matters, but it is a reality in Tycho's dealings with Jon.



What do others make of Jon's meeting with Tycho? Jon doesn't discuss the details but he is locked away with the banker for hours with Satin delivering wine. If their appearance in the common room sharing a meal wasn't enough of a sign, Jon gets use of the banker's three ships and sends orders to Cotter Pyke. Everyone must know Jon came to an arrangement and that arrangement included the three ships the Iron Banker arrived in. Do they think this deal was limited to an exchange of three ships for guides to Stannis? That strikes me as far too simple an arrangement for hours behind closed doors-- and far too boring a conclusion for a gossip ridden organization. Do they think Jon secured a loan? I can't see how some wouldn't at least speculate on that with a LC and a banker talking for hours and then sharing a meal in public. Jon's eating with the men seems an extremely rare occurrence and therefore marks something noteworthy.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

snip

Is the offer of guides to Tycho enough to secure a loan against their financial interests? I don't know. The goat tracks to the mountain clans might require local guides but the way to Deepwood Motte should hardly be a secret, through which Tycho went through anyway. Doubtless Jon's guides should have the journey faster and safer, but I think Tycho could have gone on ahead without his help. If nothing else Stannis could well be dead and the matter could and should have been broached with his heir, through her mother and Stannis could have ratified the deal later. If he didn't survive then the deal would stand with Selyse's signature alone.

I'm convinced that line " it was easier than it should have been" is not a throw-away and will come up again later.

Now, the idea that the Iron Bank might hold Stannis and the Iron Throne ultimately responsible for the Watch's debts may have merit. In this way supporting the Watch means protecting their investment by keeping viable a base for operations for him and a population from which Stannis can recruit. As such, they can throw the extra bill at Stannis when its all said and done, After all Tycho basically tells Jon that he considers him a subject of the Throne. The down side would be that the IB also holds Jon irrevocably tied up with Stannis and the Watch part of Stannis forces, which could limit Jon's options considerably. It could also mean no Stannis no cash.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Sleeper

I agree that the guide offer seems somewhat minor. Maybe it is important to bypass the Kingsroad by using the goat tracks but hardly something that's impossible for Tycho to manage without guides. This is part of what makes me inclined to think that the gossip around Castle Black must have some speculation about Jon's meeting with Tycho. One additional note on the Iron Bank. Tycho came in three ships because the Iron Bank is prudent in such matters and passes on an opportunity to see the top of the Wall which is one of the wonders of the world out of what he refers to as caution. Perhaps caution and prudence are the appropriate prisms to view his motivation in granting the loan to Jon.

I don't want to jump ahead discussion-wise, but in Jon XIII from Learning to Lead Tze had a great post analyzing Selyse's motivations in the discussion she has where Jon tells her Hardhome is his choice and not hers. Based on that I'm wondering how far back Selyse goes in terms of having an agenda at Castle Black. Given that the supposed attack at Eastwatch seems closer to her primary motivation than her initially stated purpose it seemed worth looking at her potential motivations here. I don't really see any.

Why were Selyse and Co. and Eastwatch in the first place? It seems because Stannis told them to stay there and didn't summon them while he was at Castle Black or prior to his leaving. I imagine a port is also a preferable location for his heir in terms of escape options should things go ill. Word of the attack and the Braavosi banker's arrival seem to have provided her the excuse to leave, but I get the sense that Selyse stayed in Eastwatch, despite her considerable dislike of Cotter Pyke and his hospitality, because Stannis said so. This seems her first excuse that can justify overriding her husband's orders. That she might be here in defiance of a direct command from Stannis might be interesting to consider when Selyse starts throwing disobeying Stannis threats in Jon's direction.

I considered that the Nightfort was a sham because her whole retinue is only 50 people. Selyse, Shireen, Patchface and Axell gives 4 plus her eight listed knights brings us to 12.

Queen Selyse descended upon Castle Black with her daughter and her daughter’s fool, her serving girls and lady companions, and a retinue of knights, sworn swords, and men-at-arms fifty strong.

“My loyal knights,” Queen Selyse went on. “Ser Narbert, Ser Benethon, Ser Brus, Ser Patrek, Ser Dorden, Ser Malegorn, Ser Lambert, Ser Perkin.”

The rest comprise of serving girls, lady companions, sworn swords, and men-at-arms in numbers adding up to about 38. That's a good deal of people needing to be served and not very many people to do the serving. To date the Watch has been cooking, gathering and cutting firewood, and performing most daily castle routine tasks that her retinue will need to start doing. While I think that makes for a rather unrealistic comfort scenario at the Nightfort I don't think Selyse grasps that math or the supply logistics any more than she grasped the practical underpinnings of the reasons she found Cotter Pyke to be "niggardly." So I think we can take Selyse at her word with the attack and desire to be mistress under her own roof.

“Your Grace,” said Jon Snow, “my builders have done all they can to make the Nightfort ready to receive you … yet much of it remains in ruins. It is a large castle, the largest on the Wall, and we have only been able to restore a part of it. You might be more comfortable back at Eastwatch-by-the-Sea.”
Queen Selyse sniffed. “We are done with Eastwatch. We did not like it there. A queen should be mistress beneath her own roof. We found your Cotter Pyke to be an uncouth and unpleasant man, quarrelsome and niggardly.”

Setting aside the irony of Melisandre being the literal and figurative mistress under her roof, this seems to be the reason Selyse left Eastwatch and not any ulterior motive. So why does she stay at Castle Black? An accommodations improvement over Eastwatch is one possibility, proximity to Mel is another, but I think the reason Selyse chooses to stay is the arrival of Alys Karstark. Next chapter is the wedding and the bulk of Tze's analysis of Selyse's scheming is wedding centric (and this follows the Dany chapter where she weds.) With Selyse eventually planning a series of weddings for her retinue, I imagine Jon's arranging of a match for Alys is what really causes her to stay and try to start putting her match making hand on some pieces too.

Eventually Selyse will choose Ser Patrick as a match for Val and not Axell which leads me to believe that Axell is a bit rogue here in his pressing of Jon to see Val and not doing Selyse's bidding. Interestingly enough, Ser Patrick will appear angry during the Alys wedding and the loss of a Lord of Karstark opportunity has to burn these Southron Fools something awful-- but that's stepping on our next chapter. It does leave me wondering if Ser Patrick isn't the one Selyse had in mind for Val all along and Axell is looking to "claim jump" Val on his own here.

Patchface

Ser Narbert said, “I had been told all the giants were dead.”
“Almost all.” Ygritte wept for them. “In the dark the dead are dancing.” Patchface shuffled his feet in a grotesque dance step. “I know, I know, oh oh oh.” At Eastwatch someone had sewn him a motley cloak of beaver pelts, sheepskins, and rabbit fur.

If Patchface is true to form we'll see an army of dead wightified giants. His motley cloak always struck me as meaningful but I've never found a satisfactory symbolic framework. Beavers build dams but I can't recall any worthwhile beaver references. Rabbits are referenced in plenty from LF's potted hare, to Arya's hunting, to Dany's floppy ears, to the Wild Hares Robb inspired. Sheepskins mostly seem to come up with Starks being wolves in sheep's clothing. Other than a skinchanging allusion I can't make any sense of it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Simpler than it should have been.

Jon isn't naïve. He knows the terms of the agreement (which we don't) and doesn't like them, and he still thinks it was too easy. Unfortunately, the choice is between death and debt. It is the same kind of choice that Tormund will face soon. Death or accepting Jon's terms. Tormund will know that he won't get congratulations from the Free Folk, he will know that those mothers won't forgive him, but he will want his people to live. Jon's message to Tormund may also come as a “Deus ex machina” type of solution, but, of course, it does not come free. Jon seizes the opportunity in a similar way, and he knows that there will be a price.

There is always a price, is there not?

What can we learn from Jon's thoughts about the repayment?

A long hard winter will leave the Watch so deep in debt that we will never climb out...

That's very bad, so they'd better hope the winter will not be too long or too hard... And here I wonder what the connection is between winter / a Long Night and the coming of the Others. Which is the cause and which is the result? Could they shorten the winter or at least make it less severe by defeating the Others? Anyway, with the threat of a terrible war looming in the shadows, what is a question of life and death for the Watch is also a question of life and death for the realm. Starving, underfed soldiers cannot hold the Wall.

He did not have to like it, though. And come spring, when the time came to repay all that gold, he would like it even less. … When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones.

Jon has signed the contract and he has personal responsibility for the fulfilment of the terms. Whether it is “only” the responsibility of the signing LC or whether the agreement spells out some specific condition involving Jon, we don't know.

Also, NW members having families to feed and protect, would prevent them from carrying out their duties. Who could go on a months-long ranging during a harvest season, knowing that their family is likely to starve as a result? Who wouldn't be tempted to ensure that their children inherit the piece of NW property that they are managing? Etc., etc. Basically, the end result would be normal feudal lordships, mired in usual interests and conflicts of such and not having attention to spare for maintaining the Wall or ranging the lands beyond it.
Not to mention, that in the above situation nobody would care to offer common criminals any costly alternatives (which transportation to the Wall is) to their punishments either. Nor would people living at the Wall want them.

Basically, there are negative repercussions to the scenarios where NW abandons it's vows and customs, which are too seldom taken into account in discussions of the future of the NW, I feel.

I think what you describe is that the NW has become what it is through historical-political necessity. It doesn't exclude the possibility that it had started out a bit different. Since historical-political situations are subject to change, the Watch may need to change again. The concern about the men of the NW having families and holding lands is valid, and that was obviously the reason why the restrictions were included in the vow – whenever that happened. It is also a good point that the NW comes in handy when criminals need to be disposed of.

However, all these practical considerations have also led to the fact that the NW has become a low-prestige, underpaid and understaffed organization. It is only a shadow of what it used to be. When Jon first arrives at the Wall, he finds that it is manned mostly by criminals, petty rule-breakers or people otherwise forced to join, as well as bitter elderly men who have lost their families or their previous jobs or maybe property. Jon himself joins because he can see no other honourable alternative for a bastard to achieve some sort of status. Benjen Stark may have been different, but he was a Stark, and I find it likely that there is a tradition of having a Stark on the Wall. That is not so with most noble families though. Earlier there were quite a few knights, but nowadays hardly any (Ser Allister is an exception). Recently, most of the new recruits have been convicts.

As a result, the NW has dwindled to a tiny portion of the original number, and now there are simply too few men on the Wall. Apparently, there aren't enough “sullen peasants, debtors, poachers, rapers, thieves and bastards” to form a military organization powerful enough to properly fulfil all the tasks of the NW.

Who would want to join “the misfits of the realm” unless they must?

The NW is largely ignored by the IT, because:

- Their numbers are few.

Any one of his [Robb's] lords bannermen commands more swords than you'll find in all the Night's Watch.

- In case of a rebellion, they have no resources, not even a proper castle to defend.

- The men of the NW have very little or no political power behind them. If the Night's Watch were full of the third and fourth sons of high lords, their families would make sure that their sons are not left to starve to death in the service of the realm.

- The enemy they are fighting is far away from the IT. When internal war breaks out in the realm, Tywin is of the opinion let the wildlings come and let the Young Wolf deal with them.

- They serve for life. Desertion is capital offence. When the enemy is there, they have no other option but to fight.

As a result, there is nothing or very little to attract young people to join the NW, and the NW has reached the point where they cannot function properly without outside help.

By comparison, the Kingsguard in KL has still retained considerable prestige. Even though they swear a similar vow – they cannot have families, cannot hold lands and their service is for life – they live in the capital city as comfortably as it gets in the military, they don't have to endure the hardships the black brothers face, and they are all knights. Indeed they all come – or are supposed to come – from noble families. They get all the glory they want. They are also well provided for, because they serve the royal family, that is they are right where the power is. The king may ignore a threat to a faraway region of the realm, but he is likely to want his own bodyguards to be happy and motivated (mad kings may be an exception though).

The Kingsguard must always fight for the king they have sworn to protect. (I know … Jamie) The NW, however, “takes no part”. (With regard to that, forging an alliance with the wildlings is the most neutral step a LC may take – they have nothing to do with the internal quarrels of the realm.) Taking no part is easy while they are ignored by all parties. (And much good it did them sending letters “to all five kings”.) But as soon as one of the kings decides to make political capital of the NW, staying out of it is impossible.

Stannis gives the NW much needed miliatary aid, which the NW accepts. Then he lingers in Castle Black with his army. Jon may repeat “the NW takes not part” mantra as many times as he wants, he cannot send Stannis and his army away – he doesn't have the necessary military power for that. Of course, getting involved in a fight with Stannis would also count as “taking part”. As it is, feeding them may well be regarded as “taking part”, too. We know that Jon goes further than that, but even if he didn't, the NW has already sheltered a pretender and formed a military alliance with him (against the wildlings). It would be extremely difficult to go back to neutrality after that. So there goes one of the principles.

What I want to say is that the NW has reached a point where it is a choice between dying and adapting. If the NW remains a midden heap for all the misfits of the realm, as Tyrion called it, they soon won't be able to protect the realm, and then the realm will be lost. At the moment, the men of the NW have no wives, children or lands to worry about, but soon they won't have anything at all. They cannot fight if they are left to starve. Being deep in debt is only slightly better, but at least it allows them to live and fight.

The Wall was made to stop the Others but it must be manned, and Jon must take wildlings, giants, women, whoever is there and willing to serve, even people who do not take the traditional vow, only swear to obey the LC. That is a change happening right now. In the long run, if the NW survives the coming war with the Others, making the service more attractive to future recruits could be essential. That will also require changes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

...The potential plot hole is the reason for the IB granting the loan as it seems almost impossible for the Watch to pay for it. The author, however, has Jon saying practically immediately after the deal is made (the details of which we are uaware off) that something is fishy. That seems a lot lie an alarm bell that there will be consequences of an unpleasant nature for Jon and the Watch. We should keep in mind that repayment of the loan itself should be beyond the scope of the series and that the Watch appears to be facing an existencial crisis even before the first shipment of food arrives. So what could those consequences might be?

I can think of two:

1. The terms are so severe that they might be used as justificaiton for Jon's assassination. ie He sold the Watch to the Iron Bank.

2. It sets up the Iron Bank as an involved party in yet another Westerosi story arc. Tycho could return to the Wall and demand to have a say in the Watch's decisions.

...

The other point that strikes me is that often what we are seeing in the choices that characters in ASOIAF have to make is that there is no ideal solution, no right answer, just a trade off to achieve the lesser of two evils.

The loan (if it materialises and assuming they can buy in food etc etc) will have longer term repercussions, in that sense it is not necessarily a God in the box solution like finding enough antique butter in a long forgotten secret storeroom to feed the ten thousand for decades, or a magic porridge pot, or a cunning means to convert pine needles into a tasty vitamin rich mash.

Given that the Iron Bank is there to overthrow King Tommen Beat Hater for non-payment of debts we know there is a significant risk in negotiating with the power of Capital in this world. I'd put this decision in the same category as the 13 ships offered by Quarth to Daenerys, or Tyrion sending Myrcella to Dorne or for that matter Stannis accepting a loan from the Iron Bank - afterall if the Lannisters can't service the royal debt how does a Baratheon intend to do it?

This isn't a get out of jail free card.

...Stannis gives the NW much needed miliatary aid, which the NW accepts. Then he lingers in Castle Black with his army. Jon may repeat “the NW takes not part” mantra as many times as he wants, he cannot send Stannis and his army away – he doesn't have the necessary military power for that. Of course, getting involved in a fight with Stannis would also count as “taking part”. As it is, feeding them may well be regarded as “taking part”, too. We know that Jon goes further than that, but even if he didn't, the NW has already sheltered a pretender and formed a military alliance with him (against the wildlings). It would be extremely difficult to go back to neutrality after that. So there goes one of the principles...

Stannis giving and the Night's Watch accepting aid is to present it in a neater fashion than it actually occurred. Stannis just turns up with superior numbers and forces the Night's Watch to take sides. This I think highlights the impossibility of the Night's Watch's condition at the time of ASOIAF. It isn't strong enough to be neutral in the first place and so by action or inaction it can be construed as taking part in the quarrels of the realm if somebody wants to. It can only avoid taking part in the quarrels of the realm is there are no quarrels dividing the realm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Stannis giving and the Night's Watch accepting aid is to present it in a neater fashion than it actually occurred. Stannis just turns up with superior numbers and forces the Night's Watch to take sides. This I think highlights the impossibility of the Night's Watch's condition at the time of ASOIAF. It isn't strong enough to be neutral in the first place and so by action or inaction it can be construed as taking part in the quarrels of the realm if somebody wants to. It can only avoid taking part in the quarrels of the realm is there are no quarrels dividing the realm.

Actually, that's what I meant too. Giving the NW military help is the strategy Stannis uses. He would never have come to the Wall if he had managed to conquer KL. Of course, it is not in the power of the Watch to refuse him. Had King Tommen come with an army instead of Stannis, the NW wouldn't have had a choice either (though Jon Snow doubtless would have found it more difficult to take a knee to him). Given that the NW happened to be under siege when Stannis arrived, they even had to be thankful for the relief, but Stannis's goal is to legitimize his claim to the IT and to use whatever resources or political capital he can find on the Wall.

What does His Grace want of me?

All you have to give, Jon Snow. He is a king.

That's true of the whole NW. They are forced to take part. They are being used. And as you said, it is because they are not strong enough to stay neutral. Or to keep the realm safe on their own.

I also agree about Jon choosing the lesser of two evils.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most of the things I want to say has already been said.



I was going to try and keep track of this, but I've been to busy: Here is another instance where Jon is about to have a meal and something (or someone) interupts him and he either doesn't take a bit or doesn't get to finish it.


This time he is about to sit down with Tycho Nestoris and he gets interrupted by Axell Florent about Val.



And it got me thinking - maybe it's used to show how Jon is restricted by the watch and can't do what he needs to do? Which is protect the Realms of men. He needs to eat - yet he gets stopped.


Because if you think about it,he sent Val to get Tormund to make a pact to stop hundreds of people dying at the hands of the Others.



Hmm... but he has had other meals interrupted before he was made Lord Commander (sorry - typing aloud now).



Also, regarding the deal Jon makes with Nestoris, in a later chapter Jon says to Tormund: "A fair bargain leave both sides unhappy, I've heard it said." Which is basically how he describes how he and Nestoris was after they signed the contract - slightly drunk and unhappy


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maia..


Re: NW vows.. I can see your reasoning, but I think the " wives, lands, children" restrictions are a reaction to things that did go wrong - which (to me ) implies that they were amendments to the original. Every decision has it's consequences sooner or later. In regard to bloodfeud and inheritance , even in it's patchily remembered history, the NW seems to hold examples of exactly those problems - e.g., in the castle commander who wanted his sons to inherit , and the two commanders who went to war against each other..


We see it estimated that the watch was once 10k strong , but it couldn't have been that from inception . As it has now deteriorated from that ( or whatever the real number is) , it must have grown to that from a smaller beginning.


I imagine it working along the lines of the great medieval abbeys with their vast tracts of lands . Yes, some of the brothers would work the land closest to the abbey , but then there would be "tenant farmers" , etc. whose individual farms actually belonged to the abbey and what they produced was sold through the abbey ( except for small local trade). The profits mostly went to the abbey too, but the people had a home and a living and probably, their children could keep on farming the same land after them. If they caused trouble, or abused the system, they could find themselves replaced. I don't see why such people couldn't have been of the NW ( just as we now have soldiers' families living on base). Not every Watchman is a ranger, so rangings , etc. need not have disrupted harvests and there could have been a fair amount of communal co-operation in times of need.


I'd like to say more , but I've been busy and will be for the next few days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Jon X ADWD



Overview


Well this is the highlight of the Castle Black social season, the wedding of Alys Karstark, a highborn woman of marriagable age, and Sigorn Magnar of Thenn, an eligible batchelor, in a Rhllorist ceremony conducted by Melisandre. The happy event is attended by Queen Selyse as well as The Norrey and The Flint. A wedding feast with dancing follows, news comes of Cotter Pyke's departure for Hardhome and the chapter closes with a horn blowing signalling the return of Val with Tormund and his Wildlings.



This chapter sits in contrast to the following Daenerys IX, but is also in relation to Jon I AGOT and the two other weddings we learn of in ADWD.





Observations


  • 'All praise R'hllor, the Lord of Light,” the wedding guests answered in ragged chorus before a gust of ice-cold wind blew their words away' - words are wind
  • Jon took careful note of who was was there and who was not” - I am the watcher on the walls
  • “Till his blood is boiling.” Curiously violent and probably bad for his health.
  • Bowen Marsh doesn't attend the wedding, but Mully does. Spying or are differences of opinion in the watch not hard and fast?
  • Selyse looks stricken that Melisandre won't take her to dinner, a snapshot of a needy and insecure woman?
  • A wonder you haven't had the poor man burned – yes it is a wonder, does she feel that having Patchface burnt is beyond the limits of her influence?
  • “The vision was a true one. It was my reading that was false. I am as mortal as you, Jon Snow. All mortals err.”
  • Wick Whittlestick eventual Jon attacker gets a mention here.
  • “I see what you are, Snow. Half a wolf and half a wildling, baseborn get of a traitor and a whore” - echoes of bastard, turncoat, warg.
  • One land, one god, one king” puts me in mind of John 10:16 (also of “one monarch, one empire, and one sword” as a poet wrote of Philip II), practically this is a tough ambition to impose on Westeros.
  • Everybody dances it seems apart from Jon – compare with “What would she do when the music began to play? It was a vexing question, to which her heart and head gave different answers. Sansa loved to dance, but Alayne...” AFFC Sansa III
  • “Karhold remembers” “I know about the promise” (Davos II ADWD) memory as counterpoint to doubts of identity
  • Not the man I would have chosen – who else does Cotter Pyke have to chose from? Equally the Lord Commander has to work with the whole Watch, it is interesting that he notes that the man was a crony of Slynt and Thorne but that doesn't seem to bother him about Bowen Marsh.




Analysis


Snow during a wedding means a cold marriage. My lady mother always said so” - a note on the language


GRRM opens with an invocation of R'hllor the Lord of Light in the face of winter, but winter is clearly in the ascendancy. Even the fire shivers, the flames huddle and the crackiing is soft. In the first five paragrapshs we have snow, snow flakes, Jon Snow, ice-cold wind, snowfall, a wind as cold as the breath of an ice dragon, a chill. Queen Selyse appears iced up, shrunken with a frozen smile. We have red and white in constrast, heat and cold. But the cold predominates. The setting is juxtaposed with the event. Below ground it is suffocatingly hot. The air filled with food smells. The relative abundance of the food at the feast sharpen the contrast with Jon's reflections on the food situation – one of the running themes of his ADWD arc.



Heat and cold. Feast and famine. The descriptions and language support the absolute contrasts yet the chapter is about a coming together and (the promise of) a reconcilation of opposed pairs: Karstark and Stark, Jon and Sigorn, Wildling and Kneeler.




Jon's passiviety – responding to events


We've seen before how Jon in ADWD has been cleaning up after the problems left for him and has been like Daenerys largely responding to the actions of others. His interventions, like saving Mance's son, started subtly but increasingly have larger repercussions. Taking the wildlings on without their having to follow R'hllor or kneel even to Jon in Jon V is a breach with Stannis' policy. As is sending out Val to bring in Tormund under similar conditions, also here with the marriage he is changing the balance of power in the North. When Stannis arrived at the end of ASOS his was the dominant military force in the far north. By the end of ADWD this is not the case – Stannis will not be able to enforce the worship of R'hllor and will be obliged to negiotate and treat with the anti-Bolton forces as an equal.



Can we say this is a reflection of a growth in Jon's confidence as he grows into his position or has he been forced by circumstances into being more pragmatic? Is is an artifical distinction? Jon is pushed into making decisions and these decisions bear the stamp of his character.




Marriages in Westeros


Marriages and battles are the principal political hotspots in Westeros. In most of these books an invitation to a wedding is something to be feared and avoided. There are tensions here in this chapter but it is unusually safe – a dull affair by Dothraki standards.



We have two parallels to this chapter (three if we include the proxy marriage of Asha) the Reek Wedding and Daenerys' marriage. The Reek wedding, another Northern affair, is the closest. The mist swirling through the godswood suggestive of the deception that hides the identity of poor Jeyne Poole, here the leaping over the fire in the face of the falling snow suggesting triumph inspite of the hostility that surrounds Alys and Sigorn.



Othell Yarwyck, Bowen Marsh and Septon Chayle are listed among the disaproving. Jon seems to be watching The Liddel and The Norrey suspecting that they too disapprove. But what drives the disapproval and Jon's fear of it? Is it that he is marrying a noblewoman to a wildling? Or that he is taking on the role of an authority figure – be that supreme Stark or King in the North - that transcends his formal authority as Lord Commander – ie a fear that Jon is treading on the toes of Stannis and Lord Bolton. Or is it the involvement of Melisandre and the R'hllorist marriage? From Samwell V ASOS we know that the watch's officers are resistent to R'hllorism. Is this another step outside their comfort zone? What is important is what this says about Jon's attitude, our attention is drawn to him taking note. He is dour and suspicious, suspecting the worst, reading his POV so do we.



Oddly Selyse and her court seem to approve, at least according to Axell – even though the marriage of a Northern heiress to Sigorn is a loss for the Queen's men's hopes for a reward. Jon's Except for kings and uncles suggests that Jon thinks that Stannis might not have approved.



Let him be scared of me” we are seeing here a politically aware woman using marriage as a means to achieve what she wants. Like Daenerys marriage this is a calculated poltical act born out of desparation but unlike her wedding there is a confidence here in her chances of success. The difference perhaps is that Alys has a clearer goal.




A question of character


At the end of the previous chapter Alys askes if there is a blood feud between them on account of the death of Rickard Karstark at the hands of Robb Stark. Yet if joining the Night's Watch excuses him from a blood feud with Alys this isn't the case with Sigorn. As a solution what does this marriage between two potential enemies tell us about Jon?




Attitude


“There must have been a blizzard the day she and Stannis wed...A word from Melisandre, and she would walk into the fire willingly, embrace it like a lover”, this kind of wit and judgement (and there are more examples in the chapter) as with the description of the knights left behind with Selyse and Jon's curt dismissal of Florent is something to beware of. This is Jon's POV and his attitude colours our reading. Because we are in Jon's headspace his attitude, the frustration, annoyance and lack of trust (not in The Norrey nor The Flint nor Melisandre), heightens our sense of Jon as being isolated and cut off from other people and the sense of growing hostility. While Jon won't accept Melisandre wholly into his counsels has her warning of “daggers in the dark” from Jon I ADWD coloured his outlook?Yet at the same time reading between the lines this can't be the whole story. Somebody had to broach the possibility of a wedding between Alys and Sigorn. Jon the matchmaker doesn't quite fit with the cutting judgments we read him making here, yet that must also be part of his character. Nor did Val suddenly appear at the foot of the Wall one morning by chance. Sending Val out to find Tormund can only have been the result of conversations between Jon and Val – the kind we saw in Samwell IV at the end of ASOS. By inferance there is another side to Jon – Jon the conversationalist, social Jon who hides himself from us in his own POV chapters.




Another feast


Way back, at the dawn of time itself, just after the creation of the ASOIAF universe, Tyrion tells Jon “Never forget what you are, for surely the world will not. Make it your strength. Then it can never be your weakness. Armor yourself in it, and it will never be used to hurt you” Jon I AGOT. We see in his interactions with Cregan Karstark how far he has taken that advise to heart.



In Jon I AGOT he sat on the lower benches, below the salt. Now he is the Lord and host of the proceedings. Other Lords are his guests. This is the place that a bastard has earnt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One land, one god, one king” puts me in mind of John 10:16 (also of “one monarch, one empire, and one sword” as a poet wrote of Philip II), practically this is a tough ambition to impose on Westeros.

or '"Un roi, un loi, un foi" (one king, one law, one faith) of Louis XIV, wasn't it? Remember how that worked out a hundred or so years later.

This is the first look at the folks at the Wall we get after Mel's big mistake about the "gray girl on the dying horse" is revealed. We don't get to see Jon tell Mel about Alys. That would have been an interesting scene, but it's left to the imagination. Instead, we see Jon hosting a marriage between two Old God believers (assuming the Thenns follow the Old Gods) officiated by Mel, using a R'hllorist rite. This seems to me to be a case of Jon very deliberately throwing Stannis a bone. His guru Mel has just committed a real howler, and yet Jon lets her run the ceremony. He didn't have to do that. Selyse's Queen's Men at the Wall are heavily outnumbered in fighting strength. Followers of the Seven or the Old Gods no doubt outnumber the R'hllorists. Jon is even stiffing his own septon by giving Mel priority. Perhaps Jon wants to cover his backside a bit to make up for his bending his word concerning Val. Maybe he wants Mel to feel a bit indebted to him. I'm not really sure. No matter the motivation, it's quite a generous act by Jon. and one that he can expect to take some heat for from many of his own men. He seems to think he can handle the criticism.

How much you want to bet that Alys and Sigorn stopped at the first heart tree they found on the trip back to Karhold and retook their vows?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...