Doran's Four Plans: Is There Unity?

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Doran is described by Tywin as a master planner. And it's very clear that Doran desires vegence (but we're not sure on who exactly).

Doran seems to have four plans going on. However, I'm puzzled about how they all fit together.

Plan 1: Allow Oberyn to go to King's Landing and poison the Mountain.....and Tywin if convenient.

In Storm of Swords, Oberyn arrives in King's Landing seeking "Justice" for Elia. There are three people responsible for Elia and her children's death: Tywin, the Mountain and Amory Lorch. Lorch was killed by Bolton and a bear at Harrenhall. Tywin likely was poisoned by Oberyn, but shot by Tyrion before anyone found out.

Doran main focus, though, was weirdly for Oberyn to poison the Mountain.

"I oft saw him topple boys much bigger than himself. He reminded me of that the day he left for King's Landing. He swore the he would do it one more time." (AFfC Captain of the Guard)

In fact, Tywin, the man who ordered Elia and her children's death is an afterthought for Doran. It's very curious that the Mountain, a pawn, is Doran and Oberyn's main focus for "Justice." Even Obara Sand finds this inversion perverse:

"It is blood I want."

"Lord Tywin shall deliver us the Mountain's head."

"And who shall deliver us Lord Tywin's head? The Mountain has always been his pet." (AFfC Captain of the Guard)

And, of course, the timing is also odd. Why suddenly demand justice for a crime that is long past?

And the trade off seems off. Why have Oberyn sacrifice his life to kill a pawn?

So we have three things that make Plan 1 seem bigger than simply justice for Elia:

• Timing
• Mountain Focus
• The high risk to Oberyn's life

Result of plan: The Mountain is tranformed into a zombie warrior by Qyburn

Plan 2: Send Quentyn to marry Danny or get dragons.

In Dance with Dragons, we have Quentyn sailing off to meet Danny to marry her and bring home dragons. Now, several things are off about this trip. Quentyn is given few resources and is surrounded by a rival family. Quentyn knows nothing of dragons despite Doran having numerous books and connection in Oldtown. And when Quentyn arrives, Dany is thouroughly unimpressed by Quentyn. The marriage pact is so flimsy and pathetic that Quentyn becomes flushed from embarassment.

Prince Quentyn flushed. “The marriage pact—”
“—was made by two dead men and contained not a word about the queen or you. It promised your sister’s hand to the queen’s brother, another dead man. It has no force. Until you turned up here, Her Grace was ignorant of its existence. (The Discarded Knight ADwD)

If the plan is obviously bad, why did a master planner make it? In fact, even Doran thinks the trip is dangerous and is likely to end with Dany rejecting the pact:

"Your brother went with Cletus Yronwood, Maester Kedry, and three of Lord Yronwood’s best young knights on a long and perilous voyage, with an

uncertain welcome at its end. He has gone to bring us back our heart’s desire.”

She narrowed her eyes. “What is our heart’s desire?”
“Vengeance.” (AFfC, Princess in the Tower)

Strangely, Doran describes a certain outcome to a less than certain quest. And is willing to risk his son's life on such an unsure quest with a flimsy basis.

Something else seems to be going on with Quentyn's quest. Quentyn seems to be earnest, but even prophecy tells Dany not to trust Quentyn:

"Soon comes the pale male, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Trust none of them." (ADwD Daenarys II)

So we have six things that make Plan 2 seem bigger than a Quentyn-Dany marriage proposal

• Presence of rivals
• Lack of preparation
• Flimsy basis
• A certainty of outcome when the quest appears uncertain
• The high risk to Quentyn's life
• Prophecy

Result of plan: Quentyn died (maybe). Yronwood companions are somewhat angry at Dany for rejecting him. Yronwood companions are dragged into Dany's war.

Plan 3: Enroll Sarella in the Citadel

Sarella Sand, desguised as a man, has enrolled in the Citadel and has become close to Archmaester Marwyn, a man interested in dragons and blood magic. The two have been watching Sam and Aemon and facilited their trip to Oldtown....and perhaps away from Dany.

"He knew you were coming."

"How?"

Alleras nodded at the glass candle. (Samwell V, AFfC)

Now, Marwyn has connections with the Cinnamon Wind and Mirri Maz Durr. So, it's tempting to just say that Marwyn planned the dragon hatching and has been keeping a close watch on Dany. But, why leave to see her now? Because Marwyn now has Aemon's king's blood? Was the Cinnamon Wind to collect Aemon?

If so, why leave Sam alive and Sarella behind? Is Sarella a spy or in on the plan? If she is either, why didn't she go with Marywn. And if she is either, why has she only been at the Citadel a year?

So, the Sarella plan has three big puzzles:

• Timing
• Marwyn's crazy behavior (running off immediately, telling Sam to shut up, stealing Aemon's body)
• Sarella staying behind with Sam

Result of plan: Marywn has left to meet Dany with Aemon's body and perhaps Gilly and Caster's child. Sam is with Sarella in Oldtown.

Plan 4: Marry Arienne to Aegon

Arienne has left to possibly marry Aegon, which would unite the forces of the Second Sons and Dorne against the Lannister and Tyrells on the Iron Throne.

Details and results yet to be seen.

[Ser Uncle P]

Bump. Very pertinent questions about Doran's long term strategy. Was wondering myself why it took Red Viper so long to seek vengance, reckon he didn't have Dorans permission till they had the trump card of Myrcella and the knowledge of Dany's dragons

[Lord Stokeworth]

Plan 1 doesn't seem to fit with the rest, at all. That's just some unfinished business they had to settle eventually.

Doran and Oberyn are not without their differences, you can't just hit on a man as important as Tywin Lannister that easily, so Doran probably counted that getting Gregor's head would appease Oberyn for the time being until the bigger plan unraveled. I think Oberyn went for Tywin (if he did) on his own accord.

I'm really intrigued what was Doran's intentions behind sending Quentyn so unprepared.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Plan 1 doesn't seem to fit with the rest, at all. That's just some unfinished business they had to settle eventually.

Doran and Oberyn are not without their differences, you can't just hit on a man as important as Tywin Lannister that easily, so Doran probably counted that getting Gregor's head would appease Oberyn for the time being until the bigger plan unraveled. I think Oberyn went for Tywin (if he did) on his own accord.

I'm really intrigued what was Doran's intentions behind sending Quentyn so unprepared.

There's a few connection of plan #1 to the others that I can think of:

1) Oberyn studied at the Citadel, probably with Marwyn. See #3

2) His poison for the Mountain had blood magic in it. See #3

3) Oberyn tried to raise Dorne for Viserys. See #2 and #4

4) Oberyn arranged the Braavos pact. See #2 and #4

So, I wonder if Oberyn's death was intentional to make Arianne feel dutiful.

And I wonder if the magic poison in the Mountain was for something else. Marywn and Qyburn used to work together and Qyburn eventually transformed the Mountain. DId Oberyn want to create Robert Strong?

[Lord Stokeworth]

Oberyn did tamper with whatever poison he was using to make Clegane suffer but I don't think it was ever suggested that he used "magic".

Btw, to connect point 1 to the others you'd have to connect Tywin, not Oberyn.

I do see a direct connection between Sarella/Marwin and Quentyn, wanting to reach Dany from both the magic and political side.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Here's the quote on poison:

"The poison was manticore venom from the east, I would stake my life on that."

"Pycelle says no. He told my father that manticore venom kills the instant it reaches the heart."

"So it does. But the venom has been thickened somehow, so as to draw out the Mountain's dying."

"Thickened? Thickened how? With some other substance?"

"It may be as Your Grace suggests, though in most cases adulterating a poison only lessens its potency. It may be that the cause is...less natural, let us say. A spell, I think."

Is this one a big a fool as Pycelle? "So you're telling me that the Mountain is dying of some black sorcery?"

Qyburn ignored the mockery in her voice. "He is dying of the venom, but slowly, and in exquisite agony."

[chrisdaw]

Oberyn wasn't sacrificing his life to kill Gregor, he came to kill Gregor but most likely in his own trial by combat, after poisoning whoever else he planned to (Joff very likely, after having seen him in action, Tywin always part of the plan).

Dorne holding Myrcella allowed Oberyn a long leash in King's Landing, having gained Myrcella is the key to the timing of things. This is what Doran is referring to in his grass and the snake speech. He is the grass, he shields the viper by holding Myrcella so that the Viper can strike without (much) fear of consequence.

Something else seems to be going on with Quentyn's quest. Quentyn seems to be earnest, but even prophecy tells Dany not to trust Quentyn:

"Soon comes the pale male, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun's son and the mummer's dragon. Trust none of them." (ADwD Daenarys II)

This is covered in the story, Dorne/Quentyn have no loyalty to Dany, they're merely chasing revenge and believe she can provide it, it's all about dragons, fire and blood, and when she denies the means of revenge to them they decide to try and steal from her.

[Morrigen]

The hatred of House Martell against those who were responsible for the deaths of Elia and her children probably doesn't stop with Clegane and Tywin. This might be crackpot, but is it possible their long term agenda includes extermination of the Targaryens and their dragons? If Rhaegar slighted Elia, abducted Lyanna, and caused a war thst ended in Elia's death, wouldn't this be reason enough?

1. Oberyn killed The Mountain and probably Tywin. Win win outcome for House Martell.

2. Manipulation and misdirection of multiple pawns. A plan intended to fail. Outcome: Yronwoods will now be firm allies in a possible war. Side note: if Quentyn is still alive, then the deception is much deeper than this. In respone to original plan for Quentyn: see answer number 4.

3. Magic. Most Maesters are trying to bring end to Dragons. Book on dragon lore kept at Citadel. Perhaps Sarellas true quest is to find this book. What if Doran is the one who hired Jaqen H'gar? He has the money. She stayed behind with him because they were waiting for Marwyn to leave to get book?

What Marwyn is doing is a mystery to me. I don't quite trust him......Perhaps blood magic to kill dragons? Outcome: Either way, end of dragons and another blow to House Targaryen.

4. What better way to take over a kingdom and achieve vengance than to marry a Targaryen....any Targaryen! Have a few kids, then pull out some Martell poisoning. Outcome: Arienne is queen regent to Martell heirs on the IT.

To sum up: What is Doran's goal? Vengance........There is something about the way he seems to say it to Arianne that makes me believe it is not simply directed at the Lannisters.

Again, these ramblings might be a bit out there. Thoughts anyone?

Edited for grammar

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Oberyn wasn't sacrificing his life to kill Gregor, he came to kill Gregor but most likely in his own trial by combat, after poisoning whoever else he planned to (Joff very likely, after having seen him in action, Tywin always part of the plan).

Dorne holding Myrcella allowed Oberyn a long leash in King's Landing, having gained Myrcella is the key to the timing of things. This is what Doran is referring to in his grass and the snake speech. He is the grass, he shields the viper by holding Myrcella so that the Viper can strike without (much) fear of consequence.

This is covered in the story, Dorne/Quentyn have no loyalty to Dany, they're merely chasing revenge and believe she can provide it, it's all about dragons, fire and blood, and when she denies the means of revenge to them they decide to try and steal from her.

But there is something more complicated going on.

Why did Oberyn choose Joffrey's wedding to seek his revenge? After 17 years of waiting, he decides to go then. Why? Myrcella? Was that the best chance at revenge in 17 years? The moment you have a single ward? Or does he really believe in war to make her Queen?

Because Quentyn had just left on his mission to get Dany. If Quentyn got dragons, Doran and Oberyn could do whatever they want. Why not wait until they have dragons before seeking revenge or starting a war?

And Arianne was a year away from her Aegon marriage. Why not wait until you have the Golden Company before seeking revenge or starting a war?

Did Oberyn not think Quentyn or Arianne would be successful? Was Oberyn out of the loop?

If so, why would Doran allow such a thing? Why send a man who is bent on starting a war and then try to quell his actions after? All Doran had to do was have him wait for the dragons or the Golden Company.

The hatred of House Martell against those who were responsible for the deaths of Elia and her children probably doesn't stop with Clegane and Tywin. This might be crackpot, but is it possible their long term agenda includes extermination of the Targaryens and their dragons? If Rhaegar slighted Elia, abducted Lyanna, and caused a war thst ended in Elia's death, wouldn't this be reason enough?

1. Oberyn killed The Mountain and probably Tywin. Win win outcome for House Martell.

2. Manipulation and misdirection of multiple pawns. A plan intended to fail. Outcome: Yronwoods will now be firm allies in a possible war. Side note: if Quentyn is still alive, then the deception is much deeper than this. In respone to original plan for Quentyn: see answer number 4.

3. Magic. Most Maesters are trying to bring end to Dragons. Book on dragon lore kept at Citadel. Perhaps Sarellas true quest is to find this book. What if Doran is the one who hired Jaqen H'gar? He has the money. She stayed behind with him because they were waiting for Marwyn to leave to get book?

What Marwyn is doing is a mystery to me. I don't quite trust him......Perhaps blood magic to kill dragons? Outcome: Either way, end of dragons and another blow to House Targaryen.

4. What better way to take over a kingdom and achieve vengance than to marry a Targaryen....any Targaryen! Have a few kids, then pull out some Martell poisoning. Outcome: Arienne is queen regent to Martell heirs on the IT.

To sum up: What is Doran's goal? Vengance........There is something about the way he seems to say it to Arianne that makes me believe it is not simply directed at the Lannisters.

Again, these ramblings might be a bit out there. Thoughts anyone?

Edited for grammar

You're definitely in my realm of thinking. Creating chaos, pinning enemies against each other while sitting back and enjoying the fight might be the plan.

But, there are weird moments of intense planning and coordination.

For example, Sarella's plan involves working with Marwyn. Marwyn wants to get to Dany to be her first maester ahead of the Grey Sheep.

But wait a minute.....

The Grey Sheep already have a maester on his way. The Yronwood maester from Quentyn's plan.

Low and behold, The Yronwood maester is mysteriously murdered by pirates.

That's right: Plan 2 was about to interfere with Plan 3. And then it didn't suddenly and mysteriously.

[chrisdaw]

But there is something more complicated going on.

Why did Oberyn choose Joffrey's wedding to seek his revenge? After 17 years of waiting, he decides to go then. Why? Myrcella? Was that the best chance at revenge in 17 years? The moment you have a single ward? Or does he really believe in war to make her Queen?

Because Quentyn had just left on his mission to get Dany. If Quentyn got dragons, Doran and Oberyn could do whatever they want. Why not wait until they have dragons before seeking revenge or starting a war?

And Arianne was a year away from her Aegon marriage. Why not wait until you have the Golden Company before seeking revenge or starting a war?

Did Oberyn not think Quentyn or Arianne would be successful? Was Oberyn out of the loop?

If so, why would Doran allow such a thing? Why send a man who is bent on starting a war and then try to quell his actions after? All Doran had to do was have him wait for the dragons or the Golden Company.

Doran is softening up KL in the hope Quentyn will return with Dany and her forces to take the IT. He acts now as the timing corresponds with him sending Quentyn off and him having Myrcella as ward, he wants chaos when they arrive, maybe even an open Tyrell/Lannister war, whatever the eventual outcome killing off Tywin couldn't hurt. No he doesn't intend to crown Myrcella, she's insurance against the Lannister's simply acting on suspicion and killing Oberyn in the street without evidence.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Doran is softening up KL in the hope Quentyn will return with Dany and her forces to take the IT. He acts now as the timing corresponds with him sending Quentyn off and him having Myrcella as ward, he wants chaos when they arrive, maybe even an open Tyrell/Lannister war, whatever the eventual outcome killing off Tywin couldn't hurt. No he doesn't intend to crown Myrcella, she's insurance against the Lannister's simply acting on suspicion and killing Oberyn in the street without evidence.

It just doesn't make sense. Why let Oberyn die whether you plan on having dragons in a year? Chaos is meaningless when you have dragons. Everything is meaningless when you have dragons. You win and get to kill all of your enemies.

And why have Oberyn study poison and magic for years just to have the Mountain feel a few days of pain?

No, Oberyn's death must help Doran's master plan in some way. First, I don't think Doran thought Quentyn would succeed. And I think that the magic poison has a purpose.

I don't think it's a coincidence that Marwyn worked with Qyburn and Qyburn ended up with Tywin and the Mountain's body. And this is after a Qyburn's weird leeching of Jamie as well. Doran has a hand in creating UnGregor.

[chrisdaw]

I disagree, for one thing the planing would have been hatched to pave the way to the throne for Aegon and Arrianne and before there were ever any dragons.

Oberyn was never meant to die, it was a risky mission but not a suicide mission, as Doran himself laments Oberyn having gotten himself killed, that was not his plan. His reaction to Oberyn's death is to replace him with the Sandsnakes as his eyes and ears in KL.

I do not believe Doran thinks the dragons mean total victory to the extent that all other planning and action becomes unnecessary. Dorne itself held out against dragons, and Tyrion believes in killing Tywin he destroyed Dany's greatest threat.

Then there's Oberyn himself to consider. Having done as Doran had asked and sheathed his sword for so long waiting for when Doran could provide him protection in KL, he's not likely to give up on the plan which allows him his revenge to wait for the Dragons. Doran says wait until I can shield you, that time comes in the form of Myrcella, to his mind it's going to be go time and should Doran try to stop him it's likely cause more discord than Doran would consider it's worth.

[Good Guy Garlan]

There is, of course, a simple explanation for all this: Doran is just not a good planner

[Chillboy]

I strongly recommend reading these amazing essays regarding Doran and his plans.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

I disagree, for one thing the planing would have been hatched to pave the way to the throne for Aegon and Arrianne and before there were ever any dragons.

Oberyn was never meant to die, it was a risky mission but not a suicide mission, as Doran himself laments Oberyn having gotten himself killed, that was not his plan. His reaction to Oberyn's death is to replace him with the Sandsnakes as his eyes and ears in KL.

I do not believe Doran thinks the dragons mean total victory to the extent that all other planning and action becomes unnecessary. Dorne itself held out against dragons, and Tyrion believes in killing Tywin he destroyed Dany's greatest threat.

Then there's Oberyn himself to consider. Having done as Doran had asked and sheathed his sword for so long waiting for when Doran could provide him protection in KL, he's not likely to give up on the plan which allows him his revenge to wait for the Dragons. Doran says wait until I can shield you, that time comes in the form of Myrcella, to his mind it's going to be go time and should Doran try to stop him it's likely cause more discord than Doran would consider it's worth.

It's pretty certain that Doran's plan changes around the time of Quentyn's fostering, but its also pretty certain that Doran lies about it a lot too.

Take his Arianne-Viserys pact. He claims that a pot of gold ruined the plan, but it seems the plan was over before that. Arianne was supposed to marry Viserys during her fostering in Tyrosh. But then, it didn't happen. She wasn't fostered. But the the Archon of Tyrosh still had his daughter go to Dorne. What did Doran give it return if not Arianne? It's not revealed.

Doran claims that his wife (Mellario) ended the fostering because she didn't want to be away from another child (Quentyn was already fostered). In fact, the idea was so horrible that she threatens to hurt herself...but then his wife just leaves. So, she's not with Arianne, Quentyn or Tristane at all? Tristane is a baby or a toddler at this point! And Quentyn and the wife never visit eachother ever? This whole thing doesn't make sense.

Tristane's birth, Quentyn's fostering, the Braavos Wedding Pact, Oberyn's raising of Dorne for Viserys, Jon Arryn's visit to Dorne, Arianne's aborted fostering, Willem Darry's death and Melario's departure all happen within a few years of eachother.

So, Doran seems to have picked up and dropped his Viserys plan in a relaively short period of time way, way before dragons. Then, something else came together.

There is, of course, a simple explanation for all this: Doran is just not a good planner

:) That could certainly be it.

[Jaxom 1974]

Plan 1 doesn't seem to fit with the rest, at all. That's just some unfinished business they had to settle eventually.

Doran and Oberyn are not without their differences, you can't just hit on a man as important as Tywin Lannister that easily, so Doran probably counted that getting Gregor's head would appease Oberyn for the time being until the bigger plan unraveled. I think Oberyn went for Tywin (if he did) on his own accord.

I'm really intrigued what was Doran's intentions behind sending Quentyn so unprepared.

Regardless of whether one buys into all of these plans and cross-plans and new plans...Oberyn going to King's Landing was a specific plan. It was to sow discord and buy for time. If Oberyn ended up killing the Mountain, or even Tywin, in some form or another, so be it. But that wasn't a co-ordinated plan of attack.

[King Zee]

Better plan -

send Oberyn and Quentyn to Essos.

Send either one of the Sand Nakes or alternatively Ellaria Sand's father (the Lord of Helholt) to Kings Landing.to take the seat on the Council. Let Arrianne still attend Joffrey's wedding however.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Regardless of whether one buys into all of these plans and cross-plans and new plans...Oberyn going to King's Landing was a specific plan. It was to sow discord and buy for time. If Oberyn ended up killing the Mountain, or even Tywin, in some form or another, so be it. But that wasn't a co-ordinated plan of attack.

But was it specific? Why put a spell on the poison? To give the Mountain a few days on pain? Seems awfully petty....and risky.

Had Oberyn not put a spell on the poison, he would have won. The Mountain would have died immediately. Oberyn's spell was worth dying for (or worth greatly risking his life for). Was giving the Mountain a few days of pain worth dying for? And after 17 years?

And here's my cackpot: What if Oberyn wanted the creation of Robert Strong?

Or less crackpoty: What if Oberyn wanted to motivate the Sand Snakes and Arianne into the Myrcella Plan?

Better plan -

send Oberyn and Quentyn to Essos.

Send either one of the Sand Nakes or alternatively Ellaria Sand's father (the Lord of Helholt) to Kings Landing.to take the seat on the Council. Let Arrianne still attend Joffrey's wedding however.

It's true. A much, much better plan. Oberyn would have fought off those pirates and given a first hand account of the Braavos Pact for Quentyn. He could have impressed Dany with stories of Willem Dary, her mother and Rhaegar.

But apparently, dying in KL was more important.

[Amoracchius]

But was it specific? Why put a spell on the poison? To give the Mountain a few days on pain? Seems awfully petty....and risky.

Petty and risky seems like a pretty good description of Oberyn.

[Khal Shaggydog]

Yea, I also am in the dark about Doran's long term plans. But there has to be more to what Oberyn was up to in KL.

He was smart, very smart - through what we've seen of Oberyn and the fact that he did some forging at the Citadel. I think it very likely he had contact with Marwyn, which is further backed up by his daughter being there now.

Possibly connection with Qyburn? This is tenuous at best, because I don't see how anyone could plan on Qyburn being at KL at any point, or him finding favor with Cersei. So I think the idea that Oberyn was also someone involved in the planing of Robert Strong is highly unlikely.

But its a great point as to why did he not just poison Gregor and be done with it? I think he believed, and he almost did, that he would be able to beat him in combat straight up, and the poison was just a way of inflicting further suffering. Oberyn won the fight, he just stayed too close at the end. I don't think he had any intention on dying, but I guess we may find that out if we get further reveal from Doran.

I also agree with the plan of sending Oberyn to Dany, instead of Quentyn (but with him is probably even better). Of course they don't know this, but he, of anyone, is her type. Badass, smart, powerful, etc. And he knows of their history, etc.