Doran's Four Plans: Is There Unity?

[Khal Shaggydog]

I think its clear that the main target of Oberyn in KL was Tywin, and he got to him somehow. The Mountain was always just an intermediary, and as was suggested somewhere else on another thread, if Oberyn didn't get this chance to fight him, he could have simply called him out in public at any time and demanded a duel.

Tywin was the real person they felt was responsible for Elia and the kids. And Oberyn not only killed him, but he rotted his corpse and made him disgusting.

[BenBamBoo]

But there is something more complicated going on.

Why did Oberyn choose Joffrey's wedding to seek his revenge? After 17 years of waiting, he decides to go then. Why? Myrcella? Was that the best chance at revenge in 17 years? The moment you have a single ward? Or does he really believe in war to make her Queen?

Although Doran now has Myrcella, could the answer be as simple as Doran taking advantage of the chaos surrounding KL and the Lannisters at the moment? By all accounts they are at their weakest for a long time. They don't have full control of the realm and are low on fighting men. SImply put they are in no position to fight with Dorne or even provoke them knowing that, if the Bolton's screw up, they still have a fight with the North on their hands and they don't know Stannis' full intentions.

I am unsure of the other plans but I think the war of the 5 kings spurred Doran into action on plan 1.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

I think its clear that the main target of Oberyn in KL was Tywin, and he got to him somehow. The Mountain was always just an intermediary, and as was suggested somewhere else on another thread, if Oberyn didn't get this chance to fight him, he could have simply called him out in public at any time and demanded a duel.

Tywin was the real person they felt was responsible for Elia and the kids. And Oberyn not only killed him, but he rotted his corpse and made him disgusting.

Or did Qyburn do that to Tywin's body? I'm split on it.

Tywin's poison was designed to shut down his bowels and blatter until he "dies from his own poisons." That wouldn't make a man disintegrate into rot. And his bowels open up when he died to release the poo.

Then again, he started smelling the minute he died. So, maybe it was the poison.

[chrisdaw]

It's pretty certain that Doran's plan changes around the time of Quentyn's fostering, but its also pretty certain that Doran lies about it a lot too.

Take his Arianne-Viserys pact. He claims that a pot of gold ruined the plan, but it seems the plan was over before that. Arianne was supposed to marry Viserys during her fostering in Tyrosh. But then, it didn't happen. She wasn't fostered. But the the Archon of Tyrosh still had his daughter go to Dorne. What did Doran give it return if not Arianne? It's not revealed.

Doran claims that his wife (Mellario) ended the fostering because she didn't want to be away from another child (Quentyn was already fostered).

GRRM has spoken in interview about Doran and Mellario in explanation of her actions and there appears nothing more to it. There is no reason to attribute duplicity to Doran's actions or in words with his own, his actions are consistent and words are consistent, he fears Varys and acts only in necessity. He is not behind Sarella, he laments Oberyn's death, the plan to marry Viserys to Arianne didn't come to fruition as Viserys died and so he moved onto Dany and Quentyn.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

The hatred of House Martell against those who were responsible for the deaths of Elia and her children probably doesn't stop with Clegane and Tywin. This might be crackpot, but is it possible their long term agenda includes extermination of the Targaryens and their dragons? If Rhaegar slighted Elia, abducted Lyanna, and caused a war thst ended in Elia's death, wouldn't this be reason enough?

Oberyn wanted to fight for Viserys and they wanted to marry the heir of Dorne to him. Why marry Arianne to a man they eventually planned to kill? Whatever Rhaegar did to Elia, Neither Oberyn or Elia mention being mad at all.

There is, of course, a simple explanation for all this: Doran is just not a good planner

He is a good planner but his plans depend on time and he's not as good as Varys and Littlefinger at adapting and improvising when the things change.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

GRRM has spoken in interview about Doran and Mellario in explanation of her actions and there appears nothing more to it. There is no reason to attribute duplicity to Doran's actions or in words with his own, his actions are consistent and words are consistent, he fears Varys and acts only in necessity. He is not behind Sarella, he laments Oberyn's death, the plan to marry Viserys to Arianne didn't come to fruition as Viserys died and so he moved onto Dany and Quentyn.

Yes, I believe his is the quote:

Sometimes a couple loves one another, and then at some point they don't. There are marriages that also develop out of nothing more than lust (laughs). There's no guarantee that things will go well and the consequence of this is that disappointments develop and you end up estranged, each person going their own way. There's some bitterness from Mellario about this, because as Prince of Dorne, Doran has been able to stay with his children and she has had to leave them.

She is bitter. The marriage is bad. But, I don't think there is any good explanation on why she would leave or why she had to leave.

She wanted to be around her children so much that she threatened suicide if Arianne was fostered in Tyrosh....and then she leaves all of her childrenl. Doesn't hold water.

Doran so far is the most duplicitous character we have. His actions and words don't align at all.

On Sarella:

And of course Doran is behind Sarella! All she talks about is dragons and prophecy. But the biggest proof that Doran knows about Sarella is the Quentyn plan.

Doran sends off Quentyn to Meereen well before anyone else. And not Qarth. Everyone in Westeros thinks Dany is in Qarth, but Doran is able to formulate a plan, talk to the Yronwoods about it and send Quentyn off. Quentyn then wastes a month in Volantis and fights a war in Astapor before making it to Meereen.

And Quentyn gets there ahead of both the Iron Born and Tyrion.

In the AFfC prologue, the city is abuzz with news of Dany in either Qarth or Meereen meaning news just got there. Davos later hears about her only in Qarth. Yet, Quentyn is already gone: he left before Oberyn went to King's Landing. How did Doran get the news so quick? And how did he know to send Quentyn to Meereen and not Qarth?

Now, Sarella happens to have access the two fastest pieces of communication around: the Cinnamon Wind and the glass candle. Either one would get her (and Doran) the news of Dany in Meereen first.

[DaeronDrumm]

Chaos is meaningless when you have dragons. Everything is meaningless when you have dragons. You win and get to kill all of your enemies.

The Valyrians had plenty dragons and it took them three tries, if I recall, to subjugate the Ghiscari Empire with its legions and war machines.

[Lyanna_Lou]

Yes, I believe his is the quote:

Sometimes a couple loves one another, and then at some point they don't. There are marriages that also develop out of nothing more than lust (laughs). There's no guarantee that things will go well and the consequence of this is that disappointments develop and you end up estranged, each person going their own way. There's some bitterness from Mellario about this, because as Prince of Dorne, Doran has been able to stay with his children and she has had to leave them.

She is bitter. The marriage is bad. But, I don't think there is any good explanation on why she would leave or why she had to leave.

She wanted to be around her children so much that she threatened suicide if Arianne was fostered in Tyrosh....and then she leaves all of her childrenl. Doesn't hold water.

Doran so far is the most duplicitous character we have. His actions and words don't align at all.

I agree wholeheartedly. It could be a pretty terrible marriage, but as the Princess of Dorne, I'm sure Mellario would have access to another castle in Dorne close enough to where she could see her children from time to time but not be living with Doran. Heck, he's been spending a lot of time at the Water Gardens recently, so she could have even stayed at Sunspear. It's a large castle, for Pete's sake. They could be in the same building and not have to interact if they didn't want to. Plenty of marriages have stayed together for the sake of the children. I'm not saying it's healthy, but it certainly is weird that this wasn't an option. Instead, she leaves her children (including a baby/toddler!) and goes to a completely different part of the world. It just doesn't pass the smell test.