[Spoilers] A question about Young Griff

[mck]

I'm new to the boards, and have only just recently finished reading the books. I really like the Aegon character as well as Connington and cannot wait to see more of it. It never really occurred to me that he could possibly be fake, but the general consensus on the internet if that Aegon is probably a fake. There's loads of prophecies in the books that talk about mummer's dragons, and tons of theories out there about a possible blackfyre lineage and what not, Which i think is fascinating and don't discredit. However I have to counters to that argument that I'd like to get an answer to, if possible.

1.) at the very end of ADWD Kevan is filled with arrows from Varys and as he is slowly dying he divulges his plan. About putting Aegon on the throne. basically what my question is (towards the group of fans who believe that (f)Aegon) is why lie to Kevan on his deathbed about Aegon? why not just actually tell him his plan (To put a blackfyre on the throne)? To me that doesn't add up, he has no reason to tell him a lie as he's dying, other than to trick the reader.

2.) After Tyrion is first introduced to Young Griff on there way down river towards Volantis (my memory is a bit shaky with the characters names and actual going ons during this part of the book so correct me if I'm wrong). Tyrion knoiws practically from the start that Griff and Young Griff are both a ploy, so he figures out who they are. After speaking with Illyrio (The quote of 'red or black a dragon is a dragon' comes to mind), don't you think aboard the boat, when Tyrion puts the pieces together that he would have thought about a blackfyre descendant as well? Yet without anyone really dropping hints he assumes it's Aegon, someone who has been known to be dead for well over a decade. He just pulls that out of nowhere AND is correct.

With those two things in mind can someone please give me reasons as to how Aegon could be fake.

Thanks for taking the time to read this, and I hope to have a nice discussion about this!

[Buried Treasure]

You aren't alone in thinking that. I'll offer a couple of rebuttals but sadly I'm unlikely to convince you. We are all going to be arguing this until it is outright settled in the next book ( or the last one)

1) Where is the lie? Varys told Kevan 'I have this kid called Aegon and he is gonna f*ck your plans right up'. That's no lie just because this Aegon is not the original Aegon.

OR, and this is a more popular argument, (though not one I personally put much weight in),Varys was being witnessed by his ' little birds' so he would not say Aegon is a fake for their benefit.

2) Tyrion correctly surmises this kid is being raised to be 'a' Aegon. But how much of that was because this kid himself was obviously Aegon ( none at all IMO) and how much does he work it out because he managed to identify the 40ish exiled Westerosi Lord as Rhaegar's loyal friend Jon Connington and started wondering who was the teen boy that Jon caring for, educating (septa, half-maester, man- at-arms) and disguising (dyed hair). Tyrion did not seem fully convinced this was the real Aegon (he idly thinks something like 'he may be a Targaryen after all') but Tyrion does not really care - real or fake the kid is his route to hurting Cersei.

[setmyheartafire]

Maybe I misread but I thought Tyrion was cynical about the whole Aegon thing. Certainly he gets what the group on the boat is alleging. But I don't think he's convinced at all.

As for why people think he's fake, I think it's based on some text interpretation of a lot of small things that seem bigger when you connect them together. Like rusty signs of dragons. Really.

But for me I don't see all of the connections being anything until you start going looking for them.

My personal issue with him being truly Aegon is that it comes out of left field for me. I've argued with some folks before about how the baby Aegon that was presented had his head bashed in was "foreshadowing" for Aegon being alive; I think the foreshadowing is just that this leaves room for someone to show up claiming exactly this story that they are claiming.

There area lot of pieces to the premise of getting the baby out of Kings Landing that don't sit right with me. Like, why on earth would Elia trust Varys with her son? That's the biggest leap for me. I just don't think she would, no matter what he said to her. He's the Spider. People don't like him, much less trust him. Particularly, people suspect Varys is why Aerys turns against even Rhaegar. So why would she hand off her son, the eventual heir to the throne, to some guy no one trusts? Sure he could pitch his idea to smuggle the baby out to safety to you, but why would you trust that that's his actual plan? I would worry it wasn't and that he had some other nefarious goal. That's too much for me to swallow, and that's just one thing.

As far as Varys v Kevan, this is part I can't figure out, and the part I hate the most, even if I can't really refute it as people try unsuccessfully to do. I hate it because it is very Scooby Doo. "Well, here's my entire plot, here's my nefarious scheme, muahahaha!" is cheap. From this I wonder if Varys has been hoodwinked afterall, because this reveal is just too ridiculous for me as a reader of these books. They're so intricate and then whammo, Varys spills all to the dying guy suddenly. I hated it.

ETA: And despite his bratty tude, I think I might like Aegon. At first I thought he was a little shit, but he's grown on me on a re-read. Still don't think he's Rhaegar's son, but I wouldn't be too disappointed that he was. Just disappointed if Varys seriously wants to install him on the throne and that's it for his "end game".

[Armstark]

1) Varys could have killed Kevan anywhere in the castle but he chose to summon him to the rookery where he then gave his little speech before killing him. Now who do we know that is known to be the certain enemy of every Blackfyre pretender and who is heavily associated with ravens? Who can see through the eyes of ravens, a thousand eyes and one?

My theory is that Varys' reason to lie to Kevan was that someone was listening, not his little birds (those are his creatures), but one of his predecessors as Master of Whisperers: Bloodraven.

[raj34]

There is a historical analogue for Aegon indeed being a fake.

GRRM has acknowledged that The Wars of the Roses was an inspiration for the series, and during these wars there were two Yorkist princes murdered (probably) by Richard III. Subsequently, little vaguely Yorkist-looking boys kept coming out of the woodwork

claiming they were indeed of the Royal blood and raising ultimately failed rebellions.

[Yield.]

There area lot of pieces to the premise of getting the baby out of Kings Landing that don't sit right with me. Like, why on earth would Elia trust Varys with her son? That's the biggest leap for me. I just don't think she would, no matter what he said to her. He's the Spider. People don't like him, much less trust him. Particularly, people suspect Varys is why Aerys turns against even Rhaegar. So why would she hand off her son, the eventual heir to the throne, to some guy no one trusts? Sure he could pitch his idea to smuggle the baby out to safety to you, but why would you trust that that's his actual plan? I would worry it wasn't and that he had some other nefarious goal. That's too much for me to swallow, and that's just one thing.

Yep that about sums it up for me too.

Additionally if Varys had a way of smuggling baby Aegon out of King's Landing then why stop at just Aegon? Elia, Rhaella and Aegon where at that time being held hostage for Dorne's alligence to Aerys. So if his goal was to secure Dorne, who henceforth and still at that time supported the Targs (it was a Dornish host that fought at the battle of the Trident), why would he allow any of them to be available for the Lannisters to kill? It was Varys that knew/suspected the Lannisters would betray Aerys because it was Varys that begged Aerys not to open the gates to the Lannister host.

1) Varys could have killed Kevan anywhere in the castle but he chose to summon him to the rookery where he then gave his little speech before killing him. Now who do we know that is known to be the certain enemy of every Blackfyre pretender and who is heavily associated with ravens? Who can see through the eyes of ravens, a thousand eyes and one?

My theory is that Varys' reason to lie to Kevan was that someone was listening, not his little birds (those are his creatures), but one of his predecessors as Master of Whisperers: Bloodraven.

What a great catch! I hadn't put much thought into the location of his kill but you may be right because I have always suspected Bloodraven of continuing to spy on all his places of former power ever since he told Bran about visiting the scenes of his former love/half sister and half brothers.

There is a historical analogue for Aegon indeed being a fake.

GRRM has acknowledged that The Wars of the Roses was an inspiration for the series, and during these wars there were two Yorkist princes murdered (probably) by Richard III. Subsequently, little vaguely Yorkist-looking boys kept coming out of the woodwork

claiming they were indeed of the Royal blood and raising ultimately failed rebellions.

This is true. Perkins Warbeck is a good example of what you're talking about. The rumours went that there was more than one switch. First George of Clarence did it with his son Edward so that King Edward VI would imprison a fake if he (George) should be found to be a traitor to the throne. Then there is the rumour that Elizabeth Woodville did the same with Richard once she knew he would be taken to the Tower to keep his brother company. This one is more widely believed because Elizabeth died penniless from supporting Perkins Warbeck in his claim to the throne. While there were several claimants to being Prince Richard of York, his is the most well know because he went from court to court convincing everyone with his looks and his manners. Sound familiar at all?

[Armstark]

What a great catch! I hadn't put much thought into the location of his kill but you may be right because I have always suspected Bloodraven of continuing to spy on all his places of former power ever since he told Bran about visiting the scenes of his former love/half sister and half brothers.

Thank you! Although I have to admit that it wasn't me who came up with it first. But I think it fits very well with the speech Varys gave because it is exactly what he would have wanted Bloodraven to believe in order for him to not intervene. The only problem I see is how Varys even knows about Bloodraven's continued existence, but he is the all-knowing Spider afterall.

[oursisthefury69]

Between all the Mummers dragon prophecy we see with Dany, all the blackfyre foreshadowing, to the clear fact that he should have been able smuggle at least Rhaenys too, he didn't, but nobody can prove that he didn't swap Aegon since he was less than a year old and had his skull smashed to bits, that's not Varys having incredible foresight in the manner people would be killed in the Sack he tried to avoid, its him taking advantage of circumstance.

Also you like many others say why not tell Kevan the truth, I ask you why would he? Does Varys owe Kevan Lannister anything? Who is he to him? And the wall in KL have ears, even if they're mostly Varys' spies, there are others. And what better way to establish such an important, long-term, grandiose lie than too treat it like the truth at all times? I definitely think even Aegon actually thinks he's Rhaegars son, and the only people that know hes fake are Illyrio Varys and whoever they've told

[acosta]

How the heck would Varys even know of the existence of a 125 year-old half-man/half-tree who disappeared from the Night's Watch so long ago any reasonable person would assume he is dead and not sitting in a cave able to see through the eyes of every raven in the world?

[Ser Wilfred]

Varys says he does all that he does to serve the realm. What would be the point of training up a kid who isn't really Rhaegars son in arms, language, religion, literature and whatever else, when he could have just as easily done it using Aegon!

And the reason he blurted out his plan to the dying Kevan is because Varys has no POV chapters, so how else were we supposed to find out?

IT IS THE REAL AEGON

[Rill Redthorn]

I don't actually have a problem with Varys "confessing all" to Kevan. I feel like he did it because he was generally a bit sorry to have to kill Kevan when Kevan was actually doing everything he could to repair the Realm and settle things down, and basically wanted to explain to Kevan why he had to die for Varys' idea of the greater good: to put a better King on the throne than Tommen. Varys even says "Forgive me," right up front, and then explains to Kevan that he's dying not because he's a bad person, but because he's actually a pretty good one, and he was making progress in getting the Realm back into working order, something Varys didn't want. We can infer -- if we choose to -- that Varys was trying to say to Kevan, "Dude, I'm sorry, but if only you were more vicious, stupid, and incompetent, you could have lived. For a while longer, at least."

Another reason Varys would have to speak up would be that he would really want to be able to tell someone -- someone he respected -- what he was actually up to. Varys has been plotting toward this for a very long time -- regardless of whether "Aegon VI" is Rhaegar's kid or just a healthy blond baby boy Illyrio picked up in the Volantene slave market, Varys has been working on putting him on the throne for 15+ years. During that time he's done some very bad stuff and orchestrated quite a few murders, no doubt. I could easily see him having the urge to justify it to someone who wasn't able to blab. "Look, in addition to telling you I'm sorry you had to die like this, it's important to me that you know that really, I had everyone's best interests at heart. Really, I'm a good guy! Now I hope you have a nice afterlife."

I'm not going to insist that this interpretation is right, of course, because I don't know. But when I first read that passage in ADOD, I thought, "Ohhh, Varys has been waiting so long to be able to talk about this, to try and justify all the games he's played and the bad stuff he's done. I get it." It made sense to me.

My take on it is that Varys is really trying to put a "good King" on the throne of Westeros -- but of course one who values and listens to Varys at all times, thus the "Mummer's dragon." This works well for Varys if Aegon is really Rhaegar's child, but it also works well if, after seeing the baby's skull crushed, Varys thought, "Okay, I can work with this. Find a healthy baby with the Valyrian look, raise him up right, and make him King. It really doesn't matter at all if he's actually a Targaryen; if he thinks he a Targaryen, and his supporters think he's a Targaryen, and he's been raised and taught, he can be a King. Why the heck not?"

So from a plausibility standpoint I think this works if Young Griff is actually Rhaegar's kid, or if he's not. But I tend to reject the Blackfyre conspiracy theories because they're too convoluted and completely unnecessary to what Varys states as his plan.

My feeling from a narrative standpoint is that the story works better if Young Griff really is Aegon VI, but I wouldn't feel cheated if it turned out he was a fake set up by Varys. I like him as "real" more from a narrative standpoint due to the challenge his legitimacy poses for Danaerys, and because it messes up the folks who keep saying Jon will end up on the Iron Throne, possibly married to Dany, which I find a pretty silly notion. Aegon with a real claim will prove a challenge to Danaerys' claim (and will stand before any claim Jon might make), which is way more interesting than, "Oh, the kid's a fake. Drogon, snack time!!"

[Buried Treasure]

Varys says he does all that he does to serve the realm. What would be the point of training up a kid who isn't really Rhaegars son in arms, language, religion, literature and whatever else, when he could have just as easily done it using Aegon!

And the reason he blurted out his plan to the dying Kevan is because Varys has no POV chapters, so how else were we supposed to find out?

IT IS THE REAL AEGON

Just as easily done it using Aegon!?? But what if Aegon died at the time? Varys can't go back in time to arrange a swap. It's not as easy to train up a dead kid in all those skills as to use as a fake procured in a several year gap between thinking of the plan and introducing him to Jon C. (On a similar note they can't go back , in time to retroactively inseminate a Blackfyre woman at the right moment, so I think it would be an extraordinary coincidence that they would have a 6 year old Blackyre to hand to Jon.

What if information does Varys impart that we cannot know about other way?

Aegon's arrived on the continent? - hardly secret.

Aegon is educated? - We learnt that through Tyrion.

That Varys is still in Kings Landing is news, and that he is murdering, but not what he said.

[oursisthefury69]

The reality is that there's no reason for Varys to tell Kevan the truth, and stands nothing to gain by Ever vocalizing the fact that Aegons fake in the capital, considering he plans on bringing him in there to rule for the long run.

I'm not saying you have to believe Aegons fake (even though theres plenty of evidence) but this certainly isn't the reason to point to for him really being Rhaegars kid.

But still, GRRM, knowing some people would think like that made it a point to not have Varys even ever say "Rhaegars son" to not further confuse people down the line who for some reason think Varys is above lying to a dying man. he just says Aegon. The kids name is actually Aegon , and he actually believes he's the real deal.

The only people who know who he really is and where he really came from are Illyrio, Varys, and maybe the Golden Company. Varys has nothing to gain by ever saying out loud (even to Illyrio) that he's a fake at this point, but everything to lose

[setmyheartafire]

I don't actually have a problem with Varys "confessing all" to Kevan. I feel like he did it because he was generally a bit sorry to have to kill Kevan when Kevan was actually doing everything he could to repair the Realm and settle things down, and basically wanted to explain to Kevan why he had to die for Varys' idea of the greater good: to put a better King on the throne than Tommen. Varys even says "Forgive me," right up front, and then explains to Kevan that he's dying not because he's a bad person, but because he's actually a pretty good one, and he was making progress in getting the Realm back into working order, something Varys didn't want. We can infer -- if we choose to -- that Varys was trying to say to Kevan, "Dude, I'm sorry, but if only you were more vicious, stupid, and incompetent, you could have lived. For a while longer, at least."

Another reason Varys would have to speak up would be that he would really want to be able to tell someone -- someone he respected -- what he was actually up to. Varys has been plotting toward this for a very long time -- regardless of whether "Aegon VI" is Rhaegar's kid or just a healthy blond baby boy Illyrio picked up in the Volantene slave market, Varys has been working on putting him on the throne for 15+ years. During that time he's done some very bad stuff and orchestrated quite a few murders, no doubt. I could easily see him having the urge to justify it to someone who wasn't able to blab. "Look, in addition to telling you I'm sorry you had to die like this, it's important to me that you know that really, I had everyone's best interests at heart. Really, I'm a good guy! Now I hope you have a nice afterlife."

I'm not going to insist that this interpretation is right, of course, because I don't know. But when I first read that passage in ADOD, I thought, "Ohhh, Varys has been waiting so long to be able to talk about this, to try and justify all the games he's played and the bad stuff he's done. I get it." It made sense to me.

My take on it is that Varys is really trying to put a "good King" on the throne of Westeros -- but of course one who values and listens to Varys at all times, thus the "Mummer's dragon." This works well for Varys if Aegon is really Rhaegar's child, but it also works well if, after seeing the baby's skull crushed, Varys thought, "Okay, I can work with this. Find a healthy baby with the Valyrian look, raise him up right, and make him King. It really doesn't matter at all if he's actually a Targaryen; if he thinks he a Targaryen, and his supporters think he's a Targaryen, and he's been raised and taught, he can be a King. Why the heck not?"

So from a plausibility standpoint I think this works if Young Griff is actually Rhaegar's kid, or if he's not. But I tend to reject the Blackfyre conspiracy theories because they're too convoluted and completely unnecessary to what Varys states as his plan.

My feeling from a narrative standpoint is that the story works better if Young Griff really is Aegon VI, but I wouldn't feel cheated if it turned out he was a fake set up by Varys. I like him as "real" more from a narrative standpoint due to the challenge his legitimacy poses for Danaerys, and because it messes up the folks who keep saying Jon will end up on the Iron Throne, possibly married to Dany, which I find a pretty silly notion. Aegon with a real claim will prove a challenge to Danaerys' claim (and will stand before any claim Jon might make), which is way more interesting than, "Oh, the kid's a fake. Drogon, snack time!!"

The problem I have with much of this is this: Varys claims to "serve the realm" which in effect means he wants a stable realm where innocents don't suffer for the high lords' games. So if that is so, why does he kill Kevan, who is working to re-establish a stable realm? By Varys' own riddles he seems to indicate it doesn't matter who is on the throne, so putting a "good king" there is kind of pointless anyway. If power resides where people think it resides, then who cares who sits the throne? As long as the realm is stable, then it's a moot point if that's Varys' endgame. Varys' motivations and speech to Kevan makes no sense in this regard.

Additionally, it's hilarious how Varys is doing things to serve the realm so that less people suffer, yet is ok with killing off tons of little birds and highborn people to get his way.

For these reasons I really think what we've seen is hogwash, or else riddled with plot holes, or Varys is actually a total idiot.

Yes, it does seem like Varys is foaming at the mouth during his speech. Also another part that made me hate it, because it's way less dramatic as a reveal to be making this fervent speech to a dying man where no one notices.

[Rill Redthorn]

The problem I have with much of this is this: Varys claims to "serve the realm" which in effect means he wants a stable realm where innocents don't suffer for the high lords' games. So if that is so, why does he kill Kevan, who is working to re-establish a stable realm?

Short-term versus long-term solution. Helping Kevan stabilize things for King Tommen would cause less suffering in the immediate future, but if it led to another civil war in a few years because, let's face it, Tommen is not Robert's kid and is a child of Lannister incest, it would just be kicking the can down the road rather than providing a long-term solution. Better to have more chaos and suffering in the next six months if it makes for a better outcome for the next fifty to one hundred years.

For example, you could say that Roberts' Rebellion was only a short-term solution to the problem of establishing a decent and fair government structure for Westeros, because Robert was so unsuited to the job of being King that putting him on the Iron Throne instead of Aerys was at best a stop-gap. If the nobles of Westeros had called a Great Council and had an actual discussion about who would be the best choice to sit the Iron Throne after the Targs were kicked out, we might very well have had fifteen years of King Eddard the First of His Name, followed upon his death by King Robb the First of His Name, and the establishment of a new stable dynasty. Taking the time to call a Great Council and hash out who should sit the Iron Throne would have delayed an immediate solution to Aerys's madness, but putting up with six months to a year of uncertainty and weak authority would have been worth it to avoid the War of the Five Kings entirely.

Now that you've got me thinking about it, isn't this what the flashbacks suggest Rhaegar was trying to do? Get a Great Council together in secret during the Tourney at Harrenhal and legally depose Aerys, sending him to live out his life in a carefully guarded tower in the South without access to open flames? (He said something to Jaime about "When I get back, changes will be made," before he rode off to get flattened by Robert's warhammer at the Trident.)

If that had happened instead -- an orderly transition of power, with the cooperation of all the noble houses of Westeros, from Mad Aerys to Rhaegar -- wouldn't that have been, most likely, a better outcome than putting Robert on the Iron Throne instead? A lot fewer people would have died, that's for sure, and Westeros would be in considerably better shape to deal with the New Long Night that's fast approaching.

Which is to say: sometimes the short-term solution is the worst solution. I have no problem with the idea that Varys thinks another six months to a year of chaos in Westeros is worth it if the new King is a good King and stability is returned to the realm, rather than propping up Tommen's rule, which cannot possibly last.

[acosta]

In all seriousness, if he believes he is the real deal and only Varys and Ilyrio know he's fake, what difference does it even make? Kid's either a good leader or not. Real Targaryen blood is completely irrelevant, possibly even a detraction given their recent history.

[FittleLinger]

Thank you! Although I have to admit that it wasn't me who came up with it first. But I think it fits very well with the speech Varys gave because it is exactly what he would have wanted Bloodraven to believe in order for him to not intervene. The only problem I see is how Varys even knows about Bloodraven's continued existence, but he is the all-knowing Spider afterall.

First of all, I agree the rookery catch is good. But I think it doesn't hold water in two places.

1. Varys is not omniscient. He might know many, if not most of the political secrets, but knowing that BR survived as is in a cave beyond the wall, acting like the olg gods with the help of the children of the forest is a big stretch,

2. Second, would really BR care about if a Targ or a Blackfyre sits the throne having in mind the Others and stuff? I mean, he (understandably) didn't seem to care when the Targ dynasty was almost stripped of power in the first place (Robert's Rebellion).

[Rill Redthorn]

In all seriousness, if he believes he is the real deal and only Varys and Ilyrio know he's fake, what difference does it even make? Kid's either a good leader or not. Real Targaryen blood is completely irrelevant, possibly even a detraction given their recent history.

It makes no difference at all....unless it means then when he inevitably comes face-to-face with one of Dany's dragons, the dragon goes, "Hm, doesn't smell like blood of the dragon to me!" -- **CHOMP**!

Mind you, when Varys came up with his plan, whatever it is, when no one had a clue there would be real dragons again in fairly short order.

[setmyheartafire]

But that's splitting hairs. There is zero evidence that Aegon will be a better king and provide a more stable realm than Tommen would.

The stability has more to do with the other people. How does Aegon solve power struggles in the end, even long term? There's no guarantee the dragons will breed or live forever, so there is no guarantee that houses or kingdoms won't eventually revolt or cause chaos and strife.

Varys' "for the realm" is hollow. This stability would never occur in a monarchy with landed lords. He can't believe it will last. And really, if he's from ESSOS as he claims, why does he even care?!

It's not believable, any of it.

[mck]

Thank you all who responded for your points. ^_^

i suppose it's all just speculation till winds of winter is released.
whatever way it pans out, I hope Aegon is the real deal. I was never a fan of Dany and having someone oppose who that could also be a real deal targaryen (whom i actually like) would actually be great.