The Curious Case of The Dragon Prince and The Winter Rose 4

[Black Crow]

As presumably as my assumption. The fact is that NS was late for the main battle and no one asks him for an explanation.

No one asks because he wasn't late. Nowhere is it suggested he was late for the battle, he just wasn't on the same part of the battlefield,

[Clueless Northman]

I don't see Ned as being good pal with Rhaegar. Others would've mentioned something.

Ned's always been a Northman, even when educted South for a time. I doubt he spent time at King's Landing or ventured far away from the Vale.

If I was trying to make this theory work, I'd assume that he eventually knew about it at the Tower of Joy, probably from Lyanna (or by Dayne if he actually survived and disappeared, which is another of the numerous conspiracies running around).

At the Trident, it's quite probable that Ned led a whole battle/wing of Robert's armies. The Northerners were following him just like they followed Robb later on, and they woulnd't accept a Southron as commander, obviously. As such, he would only meet Robert once victory was a done deal, so after the duel.

[Black Crow]

Returning to this passage:

"The maid's a fair one," Osha said.

"Robert was betrothed to marry her, but Prince Rhaegar carried her off and raped her," Bran explained. "Robert fought a war to win her back. He killed Rhaegar on the Trident with his hammer, but Lyanna died and he never got her back at all."

I'm inclined to have doubts about what might be going on here. The late Jon Arryn is presented to us as a minor saint; a good man bringing up his charges to be good men and calling his banners when Aerys demands they be given up to him.

Now Ned is straightforward; he's a Stark, but why Robert? The answer has to be because Bob was betrothed to Lya Stark. Remember that business of Maester Walys encouraging Lord Rickard in his "southern ambitions". What we've got here is St. Jon of Arryn building an alliance of North and South by uniting the Starks - an alliance momentarily thwarted by Rhaegar's abduction of Lya. So did Rhaegar know what he was doing?

As it is Jon Arryn still didn't do too badly in the end, he ruled as Hand as he probably always reckoned...

[Modesty Lannister]

But since when exactly?

I would still think Ned only got into Rhaegar's motives after the Tower. Through a note or Lyanna or himself. Not before. Why make a battle if you already know where the hostage is? Why make a rebellion to replace a single person you dine with every evening? Rhaegar could have simply had Varys poison Aerys. No one would question his death. He was old.

Since Harrenhall. Poison is woman's weapon we learned. I don't see RT using that method. I don't even think he wanted to kill his father. Just depose him.

[Hrafntýr]

Returning to this passage:

"The maid's a fair one," Osha said.

"Robert was betrothed to marry her, but Prince Rhaegar carried her off and raped her," Bran explained. "Robert fought a war to win her back. He killed Rhaegar on the Trident with his hammer, but Lyanna died and he never got her back at all."

I'm inclined to have doubts about what might be going on here. The late Jon Arryn is presented to us as a minor saint; a good man bringing up his charges to be good men and calling his banners when Aerys demands they be given up to him.

Now Ned is straightforward; he's a Stark, but why Robert? The answer has to be because Bob was betrothed to Lya Stark. Remember that business of Maester Walys encouraging Lord Rickard in his "southern ambitions". What we've got here is St. Jon of Arryn building an alliance of North and South by uniting the Starks - an alliance momentarily thwarted by Rhaegar's abduction of Lya. So did Rhaegar know what he was doing?

As it is Jon Arryn still didn't do too badly in the end, he ruled as Hand as he probably always reckoned...

Do you mean did Rhaegar know that he was starting a civil war? Could he have anticipated Brandon's hotheaded response to Lyanna's abduction, or Aerys' response to Brandon & Co.? And even if he didn't know the exact way in which such a war would be started, couldn't he see that he was setting himself up against the North, the Vale, the Stormlands and the Riverlands (since Brandon was on his way to marry Catelyn when the news of Lyanna's abduction came? Not to mention that Aerys had recently alienated Tywin Lannister. Perhaps Rhaegar thought that he could let his father and these other lords decimate one another while he was in hiding, but how, given that he started everything with his "abduction" of Lyanna. And in any case he answers the summons to return to KL.

[Metopheles]

Since Harrenhall. Poison is woman's weapon we learned. I don't see RT using that method. I don't even think he wanted to kill his father. Just depose him.

So Oberyn was a woman?

Nah I don't buy it... Ned would have stopped Robert then.

[Modesty Lannister]

Clueless Northman, Black Crow, Metopheles, hear me out. I do need your input.

What we do know from the books is that Varys informed the Mad King that RT was plotting against him and that the main meeting between the lords paramount will happen during the Harrenhall tourney. That's why Aerys went there. We also know there was some talk about marrying Cersei to Riverrun (if I remember correctly, but have to look for the quote). For some reason, that fell through and there is no mention of Tywin's presence at Harrenhall. We also know that a Stark (not clear which one) danced with Ashara Dayne, but was too shy, so Lyanna had to introduce them. Common assumption was that RT couldn't plot under the very nose of his father, but seeing how MR operated in Winterfell with Theon and spear wives, that gave me an idea. What if the meeting of the lords did go ahead and all these women were used to lead the men into the meeting under a pretext of taking them into their rooms. Ashara Dayne does not strike me as a woman who would just go to bed with a man she just met and a Stark she supposedly bedded was shy, so she was supposed to be the aggressive one? It just doesn't fit. My reasoning is that RT explained his plan to a chosen few. Starks must have been amongst the chosen few, because if RT planned to go to the Wall and over the Wall and eventually repopulate the gift with wildlings that would have been their domain. I think Lyanna's abduction as a pretext for the war was pre-agreed, but kept secret from Robert whose genuine rage would add momentum to Barathions joining the rebellion (keep in mind Robert did not join the rebellion before Aerys asked for his head and Stannis debated heavily whether to follow his brother or his king) of Starks, Tullies and Arryns. I think Brandon's rushing to KL to ask for Rhaegar was pre-agreed as well (no one is that stupid), but no one expected that the Mad King was going to burn one a strangle the other Stark. I know I'm speculating, but RR as it is makes no sense. Feel free to throw stones at me. This is a very rough draft.

[Hrafntýr]

But the thing is, we're inside Ned's head in his pov chapters. How would nothing of his knowledge that Rhaegar is still alive (as Mance) not enter into his consciousness? How could there not be a wrinkle in his thoughts at mention of Mance? How could he say, "The day may come when I will have no choice but to call the banners and ride north to deal with this King-beyond-the-Wall for good and all" if he knew that king were Rhaegar and were Jon's father?

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Since Harrenhall. Poison is woman's weapon we learned. I don't see RT using that method. I don't even think he wanted to kill his father. Just depose him.

So Oberyn was a woman?

The notion of Poison is a woman's weapon is because it's quick, painless and in many cases, undetectable. Also, it's easier to administrate to a closer man instead of stabbing him.

Oberyn using poison is pretty much a myth that he has used in his own favour. We don't really know if he actually poisoned the Yronwood man: he died of an infected wound and it's completely believable that it was what actually happened. The only known people we know he has poisoned is the Mountain, and the poison was nothing lady-like: he wanted him to suffer. If he poisoned Tywin as many think, he also used something that really caused him pain and an horrible death (before Tyrion got there, of course)

[Black Crow]

But the thing is, we're inside Ned's head in his pov chapters. How would nothing of his knowledge that Rhaegar is still alive (as Mance) not enter into his consciousness? How could there not be a wrinkle in his thoughts at mention of Mance? How could he say, "The day may come when I will have no choice but to call the banners and ride north to deal with this King-beyond-the-Wall for good and all" if he knew that king were Rhaegar and were Jon's father?

:agree:

[Modesty Lannister]

But the thing is, we're inside Ned's head in his pov chapters. How would nothing of his knowledge that Rhaegar is still alive (as Mance) not enter into his consciousness? How could there not be a wrinkle in his thoughts at mention of Mance? How could he say, "The day may come when I will have no choice but to call the banners and ride north to deal with this King-beyond-the-Wall for good and all" if he knew that king were Rhaegar and were Jon's father?

The whole quote goes:

“He was the fourth this year,” Ned said grimly. “The poor man was half-mad. Something had put a fear in him so deep that my words could not reach him.” He sighed. “Ben writes that the strength of the Night’s Watch is down below a thousand. It’s not only desertions. They are losing men on rangings as well.”

“Is it the wildlings?” she asked.

“Who else?” Ned lifted Ice, looked down the cool steel length of it. “And it will only grow worse. The day may come when I will have no choice but to call the banners and ride north to deal with this Kingbeyond-the-Wall for good and all.”

“Beyond the Wall?” The thought made Catelyn shudder.

Ned saw the dread on her face. “Mance Rayder is nothing for us to fear.”

“There are darker things beyond the Wall.” She glanced behind her at the heart tree, the pale

bark and red eyes, watching, listening, thinking its long slow thoughts. Eddard Stark, AGOT

This quote is quite ambiguous. It can be read:

1. MR is nothing. I can beat him any day and some day I will do just that. But, there are worst things than him over the Wall.

2. One day I may ride north with my bannermen and deal with MR so that we can face these dark things beyond the Wall.

1. NS sounds very out of character there. And on top of everything else, It is nonsensical to defeat minor evil, but then leave darker things alone.

2. NS sounds like he knows the day may come when the Other do pose a threat (although he still refuses to believe it) and then, he may have to deal with MR in order to stop the darker things. Not the best wording, but it boils down to that.

As for NS thoughts about RT, they are never negative in his POV chapters. Ever. Is that normal if the guy abducted and raped your sister?

[Hrafntýr]

The whole quote goes:

“He was the fourth this year,” Ned said grimly. “The poor man was half-mad. Something had put a fear in him so deep that my words could not reach him.” He sighed. “Ben writes that the strength of the Night’s Watch is down below a thousand. It’s not only desertions. They are losing men on rangings as well.”

“Is it the wildlings?” she asked.

“Who else?” Ned lifted Ice, looked down the cool steel length of it. “And it will only grow worse. The day may come when I will have no choice but to call the banners and ride north to deal with this Kingbeyond-the-Wall for good and all.”

“Beyond the Wall?” The thought made Catelyn shudder.

Ned saw the dread on her face. “Mance Rayder is nothing for us to fear.”

“There are darker things beyond the Wall.” She glanced behind her at the heart tree, the pale

bark and red eyes, watching, listening, thinking its long slow thoughts. Eddard Stark, AGOT

This quote is quite ambiguous. It can be read:

1. MR is nothing. I can beat him any day and some day I will do just that. But, there are worst things than him over the Wall.

2. One day I may ride north with my bannermen and deal with MR so that we can face these dark things beyond the Wall.

1. NS sounds very out of character there. And on top of everything else, It is nonsensical to defeat minor evil, but then leave darker things alone.

2. NS sounds like he knows the day may come when the Other do pose a threat (although he still refuses to believe it) and then, he may have to deal with MR in order to stop the darker things. Not the best wording, but it boils down to that.

As for NS thoughts about RT, they are never negative in his POV chapters. Ever. Is that normal if the guy abducted and raped your sister?

I have to disagree that Ned sounds out of character here. This is a man who fought a war. He knows what's involved. In fact, he and his bud already kicked Rhaegar's ass once. Notice how he's looking down the cool steel length of Ice as he says this. It's not out of character for him to be prepared for war, should it come to that. And he seems to think it may. But then in response to Cat's dread he reassures her. It's only then that Cat brings up the thought of other things, non-wildling things, beyond the wall. He tries to dismiss them as Old Nan's tales, nothing to worry about. So, to me, this passage reads as Ned thinking that the King-beyond-the-Wall is a threat to the North, but a threat that he can handle, as the Starks always have. Not, secretly the Prince that was Promised who is going to save us all from the Long Night or the hidden away one-time husband/lover of my sister whom I loved with all my heart or the daddy of my sister's son that I've been raising as my bastard lo these many years.

I do agree that Ned doesn't have a bad thought about Rheagar, but I don't in any way see how this is evidence that he has been in on a plot with him for the past 14 years. I've always interpreted it as a consequence of whatever Lyanna told him, which I assume includes that she wasn't an unwilling abductee or at least some sort of sympathetic account of Rhaegar, as Ned wouldn't have later thought that Rhaegar wouldn't have visited a brothel. So yes, it probably supports the notion that Ned doesn't think Lyanna was raped by Rhaegar, but I can't see it as supporting Ned as part of a Rhaegar conspiracy.

[King Benjen II]

So far, there are two schools of thought.

1. MR was invented by RT and maester Aemon way before the Trident, maybe even before Harraenhall as a vehicle for RTs plan to devote himself to the prophecy and avoid the Iron Throne. RT went to the Wall instead to the Trident.

2. RT was at the Trident, got wounded and was healed by the silent brothers. Realising his family was dead he went to maester Aemon, the only family that was left to him.

I subscribe to the former, because I believe RT sorted out his priorities in the early stage of his life. I don't say he never wanted the Iron Thone, I'd say he realised the Throne was irrelevant in the situation of invasion of the Others. Remember the quote related to Dany - you must go south to go north? The same applies to RT - he had to go north and face the real threat to 7 kingdoms, become a true king by his own merit and not by blood (MRs words) in order to one day (if he survives) go south and take his rightful throne that no one can deny him. As for the coverup story on the Wall, I think the story changed over time. If he arrived to the Wall before the Trident, RT would still be alive in the eyes of the NWs and it would be easy to join them in disguise, because no one would make the connection. Then he was sent away from Castle Black. As we know, life expectancy on the Wall is not high, so after couple of years, there would be less and less people who would remember his actual arrival, so the story can change. The latest version, that he was raised on the Wall, was told to Jon by QH. However, in order for his coverup to work, RT must have had more acomplices than maester Aemon. The true question, in my view, is what are their identities. There are people on this forum who think that RT did not go to the wall alone, but with some of his closest friends. That could make sense and would be comparable with Bran and his quest beyond the Wall. So, if we compare the two, we would have RT/Bran, Jojen/Maester Aemon, Meera/Ashara Dayne???, Hordor/Arthur Dayne??? I know this is pure speculation. At this stage, I do not share that belief.

1 is my belief

2 works as well and makes me think the whole lyrics of Dornishman's Wife is about Mance Rhaegar.

I don't understand how he needed more accomplices than Maester Aemon.

[Metopheles]

The notion of Poison is a woman's weapon is because it's quick, painless and in many cases, undetectable. Also, it's easier to administrate to a closer man instead of stabbing him.

Oberyn using poison is pretty much a myth that he has used in his own favour. We don't really know if he actually poisoned the Yronwood man: he died of an infected wound and it's completely believable that it was what actually happened. The only known people we know he has poisoned is the Mountain, and the poison was nothing lady-like: he wanted him to suffer. If he poisoned Tywin as many think, he also used something that really caused him pain and an horrible death (before Tyrion got there, of course)

I am a man. And I would use poison. Of any sort and any effect. Poison is a good weapon. Only because some dim wits and brutes call it a woman's weapon doesn't make it such. It is subtle and elegant. I am all for poison ;)

[Modesty Lannister]

1 is my belief

2 works as well and makes me think the whole lyrics of Dornishman's Wife is about Mance Rhaegar.

I don't understand how he needed more accomplices than Maester Aemon.

You may be right. I may be overcomplicating this. But, think about all the games LF or Varys are playing. How many different players from different houses and locations they involve? RT is very smart. Why wouldn't he be playing the GoT?

[King Benjen II]

hair : As we saw with show Jaime.

eyes : well I had brown green eyes, now they are golden with green, but from afar and in dim light they look brown. Only close up or if they light gets in they shine golden and green.

Besides Aegon (fake or not) had his hair dyed to make the eye colour look different. And Rhaegar had indigo eyes. Now up beyond where the light may be dimmer and with other hair colour and, in a tent, with no bright light, it may seem brown. Just as Aegon's blue eyes looked black in dim light. Plus : If we assume he is still glamoured, eye colour changes.

Nice to know eye color actually isn't a major problem and doesn't seem to require a glamour to explain.

[Modesty Lannister]

I am a man. And I would use poison. Of any sort and any effect. Poison is a good weapon. Only because some dim wits and brutes call it a woman's weapon doesn't make it such. It is subtle and elegant. I am all for poison ;)

The question was would RT use poison? I don't think he would. :-)

[Metopheles]

Does anybody have all the quotes of Varys being the one to tell Aerys about Rhaegar's supposed usurpation ?

Because I think these are all lies, or ? It seems out of character for Varys. The guy that wants good kings seated on the throne. Why help the Mad King ?

So, does anybody have them, their locations in the books, so I can do a quick reread ?

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Only Qhorin and Aemon are on the Wall when Mance was there. Jeor Mormont became LC after Mance deserted. Alliser Thorne came to the Wall after the rebellion. So the people that give us info haven't really known Mance. Qhorin definitely knew all about Mance. He knew that he is Rhaegar and that Jon is his son. This is why he chose him to join him, because Jon was only a steward and this would make no sense. Aemon...well Aemon was his relative. So there is a lie made to conceal this. Even if Qhorin did not intend to help Rhaegar conceal his identity, he may have seen potential in letting a person you know become the King beyond. Like a secret agent thing. He would unite the wildlings and stop them from stupidly attacking the wall and instead help and work together to stop the Others.

Mormont became LC after Mance deserted yes, but he was a member of the watch before he was elected LC. He certainly could have been there.

The problem I have with the idea that the Mance identity is a total construct is that when Rhaegar showed up at the Wall, they would have had to convince every single person there to go along with the story, in case one of them would live long enough to tell someone that this Mance guy just showed up one day and the thing about him being found as a kid by the Watch was bull.

I do think there could have been an actual Mance Rayder who happened to be mortally wounded right around the time Rhaegar showed up. Take a piece of the real Mance for the glamour, and Rhaegar can just assume his identity. The King Beyond the Wall having been Wildling bred (i.e. real Mance) had a better shot of uniting the Wildlings. Some guy just showing up would have had an even harder time doing that. The whole explanation for MR turning his cloak was that he was always a Wildling at heart. It makes more sense for Rhaegar to assume an existing identity, than to invent one from scratch.

A note on the rubies: the brothers of the Quiet Isle are waiting for a seventh ruby because they follow the faith of the seven, that doen't preclude there being even more rubies. I can't really picture a three-headed dragon being anywhere near accurately depicted with only a handful of gems. And the men scrambling in the water to catch them makes it sound like there were a good number, and precludes the idea that most of the rubies could have floated downstream to wash up on QI, there had to be more rubies than seven for that to work. A few could easily have clung to the armor without pinning that part of the theory on "waiting for the seventh." Rhaegar also could have been wearing a ruby beneath his armor.

Edited to correct LC Mormon.

[Metopheles]

Nice to know eye color actually isn't a major problem and doesn't seem to require a glamour to explain.

I don't think GRRM would use this, but eye colour can change. Be it natural or due to illness or something. Mine suddenly changed and eye colour can also change in old age (not my case :P) and illnesses of the eye.

But I'd go with glamour and / or dyed hair and light brightness