Your opinion on the dating of the Andal Invasion

[Charerg]

In the Song of Ice and Fire, several possible dates are offered for the "Invasion Period", when the Andals conquered southern Westeros from the First Men. All dates in the post are Pre-Landing.

- The first date offered is that the Invasion occurred 6000 Years before Aegon's Landing. Personally, I'm not a huge fan of this interpretation.

- The second possibility is that the invasion occurred 4000 ago. This is according to the True History, an in-universe book referenced in the series.

- And finally, there is the "Revisionist" interpretation that the invasion took place about 2000 ago.

The purpose of this thread is to catalogue relevant "clues" present in the books that can be used to construct a picture of when the Andal Invasion (or possibly Andal Invasions) most likely occurred.

So, let's take a look at possible clues. First off, we know that the Andals brought both iron and writing to Westeros. The First Men used bronze and they had runes, but their civilization was clearly more primitive than that of the Andals.

Secondly, we can take a look at the architechture practiced by these cultures. The First Men are usually attributed as living in ringforts or hilltop fortresses. Examples of these are the Seal Rock in White Harbor and the Fist of the First Men.

So, it would seem likely that most castles and cities of Westeros date from post-invasion periods. However, there are some exceptions, most notably Winterfell, Storm's End and the Hightower, that are said to have been built in the Age of Heroes. However, these could be interpreted as special cases, constructed by individuals who possessed rare architechtural capabilities (and some magical help).

In the Feast of Crows, Sam informs us that the oldest record he found at Castle Black dates to a time when the Watch had seen 674 Lord Commanders. If we assume that the average reign of a Lord Commander is 8 years (1000 LCs, and the Long Night occurred about 8000 years ago), it can be estimated that this document was written about 2300 years before the conquest.

So, we can be reasonably certain that Andal culture and practice was fairly well spread at this date, since writing had already reached the Wall. Sam also informs us that the first histories were set down by the Septons. This tells us that the order of maesters only came to existence at a later date, and the Septons formed the literate portion of early Andal societies.

With this in mind, I would put the Invasion period at either 4000-3000 or 2900-2300.

We can assume that the Invasion period took 500-1000 years, because we are informed that the last First Men dynasty to rule the Iron Islands was House Greyiron (and the use of iron means contact with the Andals). House Greyiron is said to have ruled for a thousand years before the Andals conquered the Isles. Since the "ruled for a thousand years" is a bit ambiguous I think we can surmise that the Greyirons ruled for a period of 1000-500 years during the Invasion Period.

As a sidenote, I wonder if the Iron Islands were called the Bronze Islands during the Age of Heroes, as the First Men didn't use iron.

[Free Northman Reborn]

I agree with the general conclusion of your post.

I believe the Andals arrived somewhere between 4000 and 3000 years ago. Any later date becomes problematic in my view.

I don't discount the possibility that there were many waves of Andals, over many centuries, with the first being the Arryns, arriving in the Vale as far back as 4000 years ago, and with the last stragglers coming in maybe a thousand years later.

But it is clear that writing had reached the Wall at least a third of the list of 999 commanders ago. A third of 8000 is around 2600 or thereabouts. And we don't have any confirmation that this was the oldest piece of writing at the Wall. Just the oldest piece that survived.

So in my view, writing was well established in Westeros by around 3000 years ago.

[Charerg]

More clues to the dating of the Andal Invasion can be found in the history of the Wolf's Den. Although not directly related, I think it's reasonable to assume that the construction of Wolf's Den by King Jon Stark dates to the Early Invasion period, as formidable castles are more characteristic of Andal architechture.

Also, we know that it was Jon Stark's son, King Rickard, who conquered the Neck from the Marsh King. I think it's logical to assume that the union of the Neck to the Kingdom of the North coincides with the Andal Invasion, since the Andal threat would provide an incentive for the Starks to conquer the Neck. Also the crannogmen would certainly be more willing to accept Stark rule than that of the Andals.

So, the sequence of events related to the Wolf's Den and the Three Sisters.

- Wolf's Den raised by Jon Stark (likely 3000-2400)

- The Den is ruled by various cadet branches of House Stark (a period of perhaps 100-300 years)

- Greystarks rule the Den (~500 years)

- (First?) Bolton Rebellion, extinction of House Greystark

- House Flint rules the Den (~100 years)

- House Locke rules the Den (said to have ruled close to 200 years)

- Slates, Longs, Holts, Ashwoods (short reigns, perhaps 100-200 years in total)

- Reavers from the Sisters take the Den

- Rape of the Three Sisters, said to occur 2000 years ago (possibly meaning 1700 Before Aegon's Crowning?)

- Stark-Arryn conflict, lasting ~1000 years, the Den is sacked by "The Talon"

- Slavers from the Stepstones take the Den, reign of Edric Snowbeard

- Brandon Ice-eyes retakes the Den

- (intermediate period?)

- House Manderly rules the Den (said to arrive to the North 1000 years Before Aegon's Crowning)

So, if we work the timeline backwards, assuming that the rather ambiguous periods are accurate (~1000 years of Stark-Arryn war sounds like an exaggeration), the timings could be as follows:

0: Aegon's Crowning

-900: House Manderly arrives to the North (Lord Borrell claims the Manderlys arrived 900 years ago)

-950: Ice-eyes drives out the slavers

-975: Slavers take the Den

-1000: End of Stark-Arryn conflict

-2000: Rape of the Three Sisters (likely occurred as response to the Sistermen taking the Den)

-2025: Sistermen take the Den

-2150-2025: Slates, Longs, Holts and Ashwoods rule the Den

-2350-2150: House Locke rules the Den

-2450-2350: Flints rule the Den

-2450: Bolton Rebellion, extinction of House Greystark

-2600: Potential date when the Starks subdued the Boltons (presumably occurred slightly before 1st Bolton Rebellion)

-2900-2450: House Greystark rules the Den

-3100-2900: House Stark rules the Den (various cadet branches)

-3080: King Rickard Stark conquers the Neck, marries the March King's daughter

-3100: King Jon Stark raises the Wolf's Den

Of course most of the referenced dates are rather ambiguos, so if we deduct some centuries, a founding date of about 2500 is also possible. In any case, I theorize that the conquest of the Neck by King Rickard closely coincides with the fall of House Mudd (the last First Men to rule the Riverlands). This would mean that King Tristifer the IV ("The Hammer of Justice") fought against the Andals ca. 3100 Before Crowning.

[Free Northman Reborn]

The Sistermen conquest of the Wolfsden happened 2000 years ago, resulting in the Rape of the Sisters in retaliation.

Before this point, the Wolfsden was held by a host of different non-Stark Houses, two notable ones being the Lockes and Flints, who held it for 300 years between them. The suggestion is that there were dozens of Houses that held the Wolfsden on behalf of the Starks over the years. If just 2 of them held it for 300 years, then I think all of them together would have held it for at least 1000 years. So that takes us back to 3000 years ago already.

Now we get to the last of the Starks that held the Woflsden - the Greystarks. Again, the impression is that dozens of Stark lords and cadet branches held the Wolfsden over the years. The longest were the Greystarks for 500 years.

Again, I find it highly unlikely that with just the Greystarks alone holding it for 500 years, that the total period it was held by all of these Stark lords and cadet branches was not at least 1000 years in total.

Meaning we are now already back to 4000 years ago. And this is a conservative estimate.

I have no idea whether the founding of the Wolfsden has any connection to the arrival of the Andals in the South. I suspect not, as Jon Stark founded it to guard the White Knife against pirates, not Andals.

What I can tell you, is that the Wolfsden was built at least 4000 years ago. And possibly even longer ago, for all we know.

Not 3100-2600 years ago, as per your timeline.

[Lord Reaver]

With this in mind, I would put the Invasion period at either 4000-3000 or 2900-2300.

We can assume that the Invasion period took 500-1000 years, because we are informed that the last First Men dynasty to rule the Iron Islands was House Greyiron (and the use of iron means contact with the Andals). House Greyiron is said to have ruled for a thousand years before the Andals conquered the Isles. Since the "ruled for a thousand years" is a bit ambiguous I think we can surmise that the Greyirons ruled for a period of 1000-500 years during the Invasion Period.

Yes, it's is either between 4 and 3 thousand or 2 and one thousand years before AL. The last kingsmoot was held either 4000 or 2000 years ago (depending on whether one believes Haereg or Denestan), and the Greyirons ruled for 1000 years from that.

From what we know of early Ironborn history, it seems they only became influential after the discovery of Iron, as the time of the High Kingdom was when they were most successful and united. It seems reasonable then that the islands might never have been called anything as a collective until that time.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Yes, it's is either between 4 and 3 thousand or 2 and one thousand years before AL. The last kingsmoot was held either 4000 or 2000 years ago (depending on whether one believes Haereg or Denestan), and the Greyirons ruled for 1000 years from that. From what we know of early Ironborn history, it seems they only became influential after the discovery of Iron, as the time of the High Kingdom was when they were most successful and united. It seems reasonable then that the islands might never have been called anything as a collective until that time.

The Starks were already at war with the Arryns 2000 years ago. Implying that the Arryns were already well established by then, in charge of all the smaller kingdoms of Mountain and Vale and able to fight over insignificant rocks in the Narrow Sea like the Sisters.

It is pretty clear that the Arryns were already in the Vale for a long time at that point.

[Lord Reaver]

The Starks were already at war with the Arryns 2000 years ago. Implying that the Arryns were already well established by then, in charge of all the smaller kingdoms of Mountain and Vale and able to fight over insignificant rocks in the Narrow Sea like the Sisters.

It is pretty clear that the Arryns were already in the Vale for a long time at that point.

That could indicate the earlier date, yes. On the other hand, the Vale was where the Andals landed, whereas the Iron Isles was the last place they conquered. So it all depends how swiftly the invasion took place.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

If I recall correctly every learned character in the series that brings up the subject seems to favor a more recent date than the common consensus regarding this and the Long Night. What various local fairy tales and legends say about when other things took place, and basing the dates for the Andals' arrival on comparisons with these, isn't real proof since those dates can be just as wrong too. Looking at real civilizations it was very common that they believed they were much older than they actually were, Plato thought Athens was seven thousand years old by the time he was writing (since Atlantis was destroyed that far back, and they fought a war with Athens once) for example, and since GRRM actually has historically interested characters in the series discussing things like these it isn't really reading too much into it to assume something similar might be going on in Westeros.

[Yukle]

The fact that the dates are vague is important to the cultural history of Westeros. It shows that their development of history is a fairly recent cultural practice. They have stories about their histories and the dates of these events are not especially important to them culturally.

This has parallels in the real world too: the Chinese dynasties endured for thousands of years but it's probable that the early dynasties are at least partly fictitious. That's not necessarily important, as they still form part of the cultural history of China.

So the difference is not entirely WHEN the Andals invaded, but when people THINK they did. Because it's the common perception that shapes Westeros, not the reality.

[Charerg]

I would say that the dating of the Wolf's Den is rather open to interpretation, though I think it's accurate to say that it was founded between 4000-2000.

Even the date when the Manderlys arrived to the North is hard to pin down, because aDwD gives two conflicting accounts:

Godric Borrel (Davos I): "The Manderlys are no northmen, not down deep. 'Twas no more than nine hundred years ago when they came north,..."

This could be interpreted as "900 years before present" in other words, 600 years Before Crowning. Another possible interpretation is to take this quote to mean "900 years BC".

Wylla Manderly (Davos III): "A thousand years before the conquest, a promise was made, and oaths were sworn..."

Taken literally, Wylla's account would put the date of the Manderly exile to 1000 BC. So, even if we just look at the date when House Manderly arrived to the north (a fairly recent event), all we can say for certain is that this happened 1000-600 years Before Crowning.

Similarly, other "ancient dates" shouldn't probably be taken literally, which is why I tend to favour the interpretation that some event such as the "Thousand Year War" between Starks and the Arryns actually took somewhat less time than legend tells us.

Even so, many of the earliest events quoted in the books are said to have taken place around "3000 years ago", such as the invasion of the North by the wildling kings Gendel and Gorne. Which seems to somewhat favour the interpretation that "history" began to be written down in some form about 3000-2000 years ago.

Regarding the ironborn, wasn't House Hoare (the Andal House who succeeded House Greyiron) selected via Kingsmoot? Which would say that the Andals conquered the Isles either around 4000 or 2000 years ago (again, you could interpret "2000 years ago" as 1700 Before Crowning or as 2000 BC).

[Free Northman Reborn]

I would say that the dating of the Wolf's Den is rather open to interpretation, though I think it's accurate to say that it was founded between 4000-2000.

Even the date when the Manderlys arrived to the North is hard to pin down, because aDwD gives two conflicting accounts:

Godric Borrel (Davos I): "The Manderlys are no northmen, not down deep. 'Twas no more than nine hundred years ago when they came north,..."

This could be interpreted as "900 years before present" in other words, 600 years Before Crowning. Another possible interpretation is to take this quote to mean "900 years BC".

Wylla Manderly (Davos III): "A thousand years before the conquest, a promise was made, and oaths were sworn..."

Taken literally, Wylla's account would put the date of the Manderly exile to 1000 BC. So, even if we just look at the date when House Manderly arrived to the north (a fairly recent event), all we can say for certain is that this happened 1000-600 years Before Crowning.

Similarly, other "ancient dates" shouldn't probably be taken literally, which is why I tend to favour the interpretation that some event such as the "Thousand Year War" between Starks and the Arryns actually took somewhat less time than legend tells us.

Even so, many of the earliest events quoted in the books are said to have taken place around "3000 years ago", such as the invasion of the North by the wildling kings Gendel and Gorne. Which seems to somewhat favour the interpretation that "history" began to be written down in some form about 3000-2000 years ago.

Regarding the ironborn, wasn't House Hoare (the Andal House who succeeded House Greyiron) selected via Kingsmoot? Which would say that the Andals conquered the Isles either around 4000 or 2000 years ago (again, you could interpret "2000 years ago" as 1700 Before Crowning or as 2000 BC).

Lord Borrell says that the Rape of the Three Sisters happened 2000 years ago, "according to the Maesters". That is as solid a source as one can ask for.

And the Greystarks, Lockes, Flints, other lords and other Stark cadet branches all held the Wolfsden before that point.

The point is, any history of the Wolfsden prior to the arrival of the Andals in Westeros would not have contemporary written records backing it up. So even if the Wolfsden was founded 6000 years ago, there would be no records about that time. Because it predated the Andals and writing. Therefore a maximum age for the Wolfsden cannot be determined. But a minimum age can.

To me, the latest date for the founding of the Wolfsden is 4000 years ago, but there could as well be many centuries before that where no records were kept, stretching the founding of the Wolfsden even further back in time.

EDIT

Regarding the arrival of the Manderlys. It is in Borrell's interest to view the Manderlys as upstarts - given that the Manderlys and Borrells likely have a stormy relationship. It is in the Manderly's interest, on the other hand, to stretch the date of their arrival as far back as possible, to legitimize their status as true Northmen as much as possible.

Hence, Borrell's dating is likely too short, and Wylla Manderly's dating is likely too long.

The original date we were given in one of the earlier books, was that White Harbor was founded 1000 years ago. I think that is the correct date. Borrell's 900 years is slightly too short, and the Manderly's own narrative conveniently changed the 1000 years ago to "1000 years before the conquest", thus adding a nice 300 years to their history in the North.

The likely answer, is that the Manderlys arrived 1000 years ago. 700 years before the Conquest.

[Lord Reaver]

Regarding the ironborn, wasn't House Hoare (the Andal House who succeeded House Greyiron) selected via Kingsmoot? Which would say that the Andals conquered the Isles either around 4000 or 2000 years ago (again, you could interpret "2000 years ago" as 1700 Before Crowning or as 2000 BC).

Well, now, see that's an interesting point. Aeron says Harrag Hoare was selected by Kingsmoot. Yet at the same time, the "last" kingsmoot was the one with Urragon Goodbrother and Torgon the Latecomer.

So it seems House Hoare were around for quite some time (indicating they weren't "Andals", I don't believe there's any really Andal houses on the isles), and had at least one King selected in the time before the last Kingsmoot. How exactly they took over after the Greyirons I'm not entirely sure. Do we have direct reference to this being a kingsmoot ? Because if so, it would be later than the "last" one.

[joluoto2]

Okay, there's one little misconception here. Nowhere is it said the FM did not have Iron, it is said that when they arrived, and probably for a long time afterwards they only used bronze. Then it's said the Andals brough steel. Note: Steel, not iron. The FM could have discovered iron between the Long Night and the Andal invasion on their own. They just never figured out how to make steel. This would explain the Iron Islands being called the Iron Islands (and it's very plausible that the Westerosi who discovered iron were Iron Islanders, because there's iron on those islands). It would also expalin House Greyiron.

[Chatty Duelist]

I'm of the opinion that there were 2 waves to the AI.

The first was 2000 BC

The second was 1000 BC.

The Manderlys, Bolton Rebellion and all that were all part of the second wave. The River Kings were also subdued by the Anglo-Saxons Andals during the second wave.

[Charerg]

Okay, there's one little misconception here. Nowhere is it said the FM did not have Iron, it is said that when they arrived, and probably for a long time afterwards they only used bronze. Then it's said the Andals brough steel. Note: Steel, not iron. The FM could have discovered iron between the Long Night and the Andal invasion on their own. They just never figured out how to make steel. This would explain the Iron Islands being called the Iron Islands (and it's very plausible that the Westerosi who discovered iron were Iron Islanders, because there's iron on those islands). It would also expalin House Greyiron.

From a Dance with Dragons: "Your Smith must have been Rhoynish," Illyrio quipped. "The Andals learned the art of working iron from the Rhoynar who dwelt along the river. This is known."

Besides, the First Men are synonymous with bronze, that much is clear. We also know that the armies around the Slaver's Bay used mostly bronze equipment during the Rise of Valyria (about 5000 years ago), so it's fair to assume that "steel" is more or less used synonymously with iron when speaking of the Andals.

Which leads us to speculation about the place and time when iron first came to widespread use. I think the most likely place whre ironworking first came widespread is ancient Valyria, since they seem very skilled metalworkers who used hordes of slaves to acquire various metals in large quantities.

Hence, the Rhoynar probably learned ironworking from the Valyrians through trading and such (perhaps the Rhoynar adopted iron after the Valyrian colony of Volantis was founded at the mouth of the Rhoyne). And then the Rhoynar passed their metalworking skills on to the Andals.

Edit: Here's a speculative timeline of the Invasion period, a sort of "Revisionist Interpretation" (putting the Invasion period around 3000, as 2000 seems too late a period):

5000-4000: The Rise of Valyria, Fall of Ghis

3800: The founding of Volantis

3800-3500: The Rhoynar adopt ironworking

3600-3000: Lys and Tyrosh are founded, slave trade established in the Narrow Sea region

3500-3200: The Andals adopt ironworking

3200: House Greyiron takes the Seastone Chair, utilizing iron weaponry captured in raids against Valyrian shipping (possibly the last Kingsmoot?)

3100: The first Andals land in the Fingers

2850: Ser Artys Arryn slays the last Mountain King

2825: House Arryn gains control of the Vale, construction of the Eyrie begins

2750: House Durrendon converts to the Faith, Andal conquest of the Stormlands

2700: Oldtown surrenders to the Andals, House Hightower converts to the Faith

2675: Andal conquest of the Red Mountains, House Dayne converts to the Faith

2650: Conquest of Dorne by the Andals

2625: Andal conquest of the Southern Riverlands, House Bracken converts

2600: Jon Stark raises the Wolf's Den

2580: Andal conquest of the Northern Riverlands, extinction of House Mudd

2575: Rickard Stark conquers the Neck

2550: Andal conquest of the Westerlands, founding of House Lannister

2500: Andal conquest of the Iron Islands, House Hoare takes the Seastone Chair

1700: Rape of the Three Sisters ("according to the maesters")

600: House Manderly arrives to the North (according to Godric Borrell)

Note that the above is a "revisionist" interpretation, that is, most of the dates are not taken literally. Of course, I'm not claiming this is the only possible interpretation.

[Free Northman Reborn]

From a Dance with Dragons: "Your Smith must have been Rhoynish," Illyrio quipped. "The Andals learned the art of working iron from the Rhoynar who dwelt along the river. This is known."

Besides, the First Men are synonymous with bronze, that much is clear. We also know that the armies around the Slaver's Bay used mostly bronze equipment during the Rise of Valyria (about 5000 years ago), so it's fair to assume that "steel" is more or less used synonymously with iron when speaking of the Andals.

Which leads us to speculation about the place and time when iron first came to widespread use. I think the most likely place whre ironworking first came widespread is ancient Valyria, since they seem very skilled metalworkers who used hordes of slaves to acquire various metals in large quantities.

Hence, the Rhoynar probably learned ironworking from the Valyrians through trading and such (perhaps the Rhoynar adopted iron after the Valyrian colony of Volantis was founded at the mouth of the Rhoyne). And then the Rhoynar passed their metalworking skills on to the Andals.

Edit: Here's a speculative timeline of the Invasion period, a sort of "Revisionist Interpretation" (putting the Invasion period around 3000, as 2000 seems too late a period):

5000-4000: The Rise of Valyria, Fall of Ghis

3800: The founding of Volantis

3800-3500: The Rhoynar adopt ironworking

3600-3000: Lys and Tyrosh are founded, slave trade established in the Narrow Sea region

3500-3200: The Andals adopt ironworking

3200: House Greyiron takes the Seastone Chair, utilizing iron weaponry captured in raids against Valyrian shipping (possibly the last Kingsmoot?)

3100: The first Andals land in the Fingers

2850: Ser Artys Arryn slays the last Mountain King

2825: House Arryn gains control of the Vale, construction of the Eyrie begins

2750: House Durrendon converts to the Faith, Andal conquest of the Stormlands

2700: Oldtown surrenders to the Andals, House Hightower converts to the Faith

2675: Andal conquest of the Red Mountains, House Dayne converts to the Faith

2650: Conquest of Dorne by the Andals

2625: Andal conquest of the Southern Riverlands, House Bracken converts

2600: Jon Stark raises the Wolf's Den

2580: Andal conquest of the Northern Riverlands, extinction of House Mudd

2575: Rickard Stark conquers the Neck

2550: Andal conquest of the Westerlands, founding of House Lannister

2500: Andal conquest of the Iron Islands, House Hoare takes the Seastone Chair

1700: Rape of the Three Sisters ("according to the maesters")

600: House Manderly arrives to the North (according to Godric Borrell)

Note that the above is a "revisionist" interpretation, that is, most of the dates are not taken literally. Of course, I'm not claiming this is the only possible interpretation.

I like your linking of the Andal invasion with the timing of the discovery of Iron Working by the Rhoynar in the East. That is a nice new angle on the timeline.

Indeed, since we know the greatest power in the world around 5000 years ago was likely the Empire of Great Ghis - with the exception of maybe the kingdom of Ashai and the lands of the Far East - and since the Ghiscari still had Bronze weapons 5000 years ago (do you have a quote for this fact?), it is then highly unlikely that the Andals would have had Iron weapons back then.

The Andal invasion cannot predate the mastery of Ironworking in Andalos. And since the art of Ironworking likely spread from East to West gradually, it probably could not have reached Andalos before 4000 years ago in my view.

This would put a maximum length of time of 4000 years ago for the Andal invasion. This does of course hinge on confirmation of the fact that the Ghiscari still used Bronze 5000 years ago. But nice work in this respect.

What I must come back to, is your dating of the Wolfsden as 2600 years old. There is simply no evidence for this, and in fact, it contradicts the data that we DO have with regard to the founding of the Wolfsden.

The Rape of the Three Sisters was 2000 years ago, according to the Maesters. Just the Greystarks, Lockes and Flints already take us back 800 years before this date. Meaning 2800 years ago. And this excludes all the countless other Houses, Starks and Stark Cadet branches that held the Wolfsden for indeterminate periods of time.

In short, 2600 years ago is simply way too young an age for the Wolfsden.

I stress, however, that this does not affect your overall timeline in any way, as there is no evidence that the founding of the Wolfsden is in any way connected to the Andal invasion of Westeros. In fact, the information we do have suggests that it was founded to protect the White Knife from Pirates instead. So the Wolfsden could have been founded 5000 years ago, for all we know, and this would still not invalidate the arrival of the Andals around 3000 years ago.

To me, the conclusive limits we have on the arrival of the Andals are based on the upper limit of the arrival of Ironworking in Andalos - surely not more than 4000 years ago - and a lower limit depicted by the oldest list of Commanders of the Watch, found by Sam, which dates from around 2600 years ago.

By the time that Sam's list was created, writing must have spread all the way from Oldtown to the Wall, signifying many centuries of Andal presence in Westeros by this point. In fact, since we don't know whether there are in fact older records that were lost, this lower limit date may even need to move farther back in time.

Basically, this means that the Andals could not have arrived in Westeros before 4000 years ago, and their invasion must have been completed not later than 3000 years ago.

[Charerg]

Well, I suppose the Ghiscari aren't directly quoted as using bronze 5000 years back. That said, it's clear that they did use bronze helmets and bronze breastplates since the Ghiscari still make heavy use of bronze armour around the Slaver's Bay at present date. This may be because of their "historical value" and worn more because of their ceremonial significance, as surely the Ghiscari could afford iron helmets and such.

So, we can be almost certain that the equipment the Ghiscari "lockstep legions" used during their wars against Valyria was bronze. That said, I suppose it's not unthinkable that they may have had iron weaponry, as that was the case for the Ancient Greeks.

If the Ghiscari are modelled more after the Ancient Egyptians, they would use purely bronze equipment. On the other hand, if they're supposed to be like the Greek hoplites, they could've used bronze armour with iron swords and spearheads.

In any case, I think the Andals had both iron arms and armour, so it seems likely the Invasion occurred at a point when metalworking had advanced beyond the level seen during the Valyria-Ghis conflict. Since Bran sees in his "weirwood dream" ancient Stark lords wearing "fur and chainmail", it would seem likely that the Andals did possess the technology to create chainmail.

Edit: To continue the sideline debate regarding the dating of the Wolf's Den, here's a revised version of the speculative timeline. This one dates the Andal Invasions between 3900-3300 BC, and assumes a "pirate phase" to have taken place 3900-3700 before the Andals began seriously migrating to Westeros (similar to the Viking invasions). Again, I'm assuming here that "the sea raiders" the Den was built to guard against were actually Andals.

0: The Crowning of King Aegon

600: House Manderly is established in the North (Godric Borrell)

650: Slavers take the Den, Edric Snowbeard's reign

700: The Stark-Arryn conflict ends (I'm interpreting the "1000 years war" as a generalisation, with the conflict actually having lasted 800 years)

700: The Last Bolton Rebellion, the founding of House Karstark (According to Theon, the Boltons abandoned flaying a 1000 years ago, when they bent the knee to Winterfell. I interpret this as the date of the last Bolton rebellion)

720: Bael the Bard invades the North, Battle of the Frozen Ford (I'm interpreting the story as referring to a Stark king who fell during the last Bolton rebellion)

1500: The Rape of the Three Sisters (Here I'm interpreting the "2000 years ago" in a general sense, with the more accurate date being "1800 years ago")

2100-1500: Slates, Longs, Holts, Ashwoods, Lockes and Flints rule the Den

2100: First Bolton rebellion, extinction of House Greystark

2200: The Starks subdue the Kings of the Dreadfort (the text gives the impression that the Boltons were subdued "relatively recently", thus I interpret this as having occurred ca. 2500 years ago)

2500: Gendel and Gorne invade the North (said to have occurred 3000 years ago)

2600-2100: The Greystarks rule the Den

3300: Andal conquest of the Iron Islands, extinction of House Greyiron

3650: House Arryn gains control of the Vale, construction of the Eyrie begins

3775: Rickard Stark conquers the Neck

3800: Jon Stark raises the Wolf's Den

3900: The First Andals land in the Fingers

4000: House Greyiron takes the Seastone Chair, the last Kingsmoot

4300-4100: The Andals adopt ironworking

[Werthead]

Based on how decrepit castles get after just a few centuries (living in a town with a 950-year-old Norman castle built on top of a 2,000-year-old Roman temple), I've always taken it with a very large grain of salt that Winterfell, Storm's End etc are actually the original castles. Built on the same site, yes, but I think both castles (and most of the rest of them) are the result of gradual decline and rebuilding over millennia so very little of the original structures are left, if anything.

[The hairy bear]

I've never believed any historical figure given by the book that it's greater than one thousand years.

In the Feast of Crows, Sam informs us that the oldest record he found at Castle Black dates to a time when the Watch had seen 674 Lord Commanders. If we assume that the average reign of a Lord Commander is 8 years (1000 LCs, and the Long Night occurred about 8000 years ago), it can be estimated that this document was written about 2300 years before the conquest.

So, we can be reasonably certain that Andal culture and practice was fairly well spread at this date, since writing had already reached the Wall. Sam also informs us that the first histories were set down by the Septons. This tells us that the order of maesters only came to existence at a later date, and the Septons formed the literate portion of early Andal societies.

With this in mind, I would put the Invasion period at either 4000-3000 or 2900-2300.

That's the thiniest of the airs to base a theory on. The Long Night ocurring 8000 year ago is just an invented traditional date. It's just supposed to mean "a long time ago". It could be ten thousand, it could be five thousand, it could be whatever.

The timing of the long night is even more unreliable than the timing of the Andal migration, since it precedes it. You can't use one to date the other.

[Free Northman Reborn]

As I've said before, we know the First Men settled all of Westeros including the Lands Beyond the Wall well before the Long Night.

Since it is highly probable that the Long Night was the extinction event that wiped out dragons everywhere except in volcano-heated Valyria, since Ghis almost certainly arose after the Long Night, and since Ghis was already ancient by the time Valyria arose 5000 years ago, we can deduce that the Long Night happened a number of millenia before the Ghiscari- Valyrian wars 5000 years ago.

That takes us back very close to the mythical 8000 year ago date for the Long Night. Meaning that the arrival of the First Men indeed took place in the order of 10000 years ago or more.

So that part of oral tradition is pretty accurate, given that we have written Ghiscari and Valyrian records giving us the 5000 year ago date for the Ghiscari- Valyrian wars.

It is merely the Andal arrival in Westeros that seems like it was extended back in time -perhaps by the Andal kings themselves, to give themselves a greater air of legitimacy compared to the First Men who, if they indeed arrived 10000 years ago or more as seems highly likely, have been in Westeros far far longer than the revised timeline suggests the Andals have.