The Curious Case of the Dragon Prince and the Winter Rose V

[Amoracchius]

Sidenote : All these things we know of Hoster makes me feel that he is madder than the Mad King..

So: What did Jon Arryn intend?

He intended to better his family. His.

All his sons were dead or non existent, his wives were dead. He had no direct heir.

What did he do? Marry a new fertile woman.

What gives him that? A son. A heir.

Rising problem: He already named another heir. . . .

Now this other heir is dead.

No hard feelings when he now names his son his heir.

I mean I would have raged if that old bag suddenly had a son and destroyed my claim with that. Now that "I" am dead, I can't start a dispute.

win-win

:D

But Jon Arryn didn't marry Lysa until after his named heir was dead. Ned married Cat and Jon married Lysa in a double wedding after Brandon and Elbert died.

Edit: Ninja'd by Armstark.

[Metopheles]

But Jon Arryn didn't marry Lysa until after his named heir was dead. Ned married Cat and Jon married Lysa in a double wedding after Brandon and Elbert died.

Edit: Ninja'd by Armstark.

So?

You think that debunks it? This only proves it. He waited for the right moment. As always.

If you listened, marrying while his heir is still alive, would destroy the plot. His heir would rage and castrate him, so his claim would not vanish. Waiting until the heir is gone avoids this dispute.

[Armstark]

So?

You think that debunks it? This only proves it. He waited for the right moment. As always.

How does it prove anything? The right moment to kill Elbert would be when he actually has his prefered heir close to adulthood and healthy. Not when killing him would leave him without any heir at all.

If you listened, marrying while his heir is still alive, would destroy the plot. His heir would rage and castrate him, so his claim would not vanish. Waiting until the heir is gone avoids this dispute.

Not everybody in this series is Ramsey Bolton.

[Metopheles]

Maybe we move on. 17 posts or so is what we have left

So what would be if someone revealed that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. Unproven if he is now a bastard or not, would the people(wildling, Northeners, Southeners, Targaryens and Martells) accept him anyway or would it rise a dispute ?

[Amoracchius]

So?

You think that debunks it? This only proves it. He waited for the right moment. As always.

If you listened, marrying while his heir is still alive, would destroy the plot. His heir would rage and castrate him, so his claim would not vanish. Waiting until the heir is gone avoids this dispute.

Whoa. Why the hostility? Your earlier post seemed to imply a timeline that I knew to be incorrect from statements made in the text, so I brought that into the discussion. Now you're presenting a different timeline, which is fine, maybe I misinterpreted your earlier post. I didn't attack you, I didn't even say that your theory was debunked. All I did was point out a fact from the text. Please, tone it down.

[Black Crow]

Maybe we move on. 17 posts or so is what we have left

So what would be if someone revealed that Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna. Unproven if he is now a bastard or not, would the people(wildling, Northeners, Southeners, Targaryens and Martells) accept him anyway or would it rise a dispute ?

I refer you to one I made earlier:

Let's look at it logically. If he or anybody else was to promote Jon Snow as the rightful King of Westeros he needs to get to the back of a very long and very expensive queue:

Aerys pops his clogs in King's Landing, along with various other members of the Royal family, his eldest son Rhaegar has already died at the Trident so who's next?

1. First off the blocks is Viserys Targaryen, the King's second son. The first son (ungrateful wretch) has gotten himself killed along with his known children so it seems a straightforward claim. Except he's also the Beggar King and as his sister sadly observes, no dragon.

2. Then there's the sister, again a good claim albeit she's a woman, but she does have dragons so there's no doubting she's Aerys' daughter. Trouble is she's in the land of far far away and by all accounts making a complete hash of things.

3. Fear not, up comes number three, Aegon son of Rhaegar and allegedly not dead after all. Great start, unlike 1 & 2 he's actually made it to Westeros, raised his banners and isn't demonstrably mad. In fact looks pretty good all round. OK too good to be true but we're the readers not the actors and real or not he's a better bet than Cersei Lannister.

4. Yes there is a four, because following all historical precedent if no.3 comes to an untimely end as confidently predicted there's too much at stake for someone else not to turn up proclaiming himself the true Aegon, or for that matter if Aegon could be spirited away from that massacre at King's Landing what of his sister, might she too have gotten away and be available? Never mind Perkin Warbeck, there's scope enough for a whole string of False Dimitri claimants.

5. And so we come to Kit Harrington, sorry Jon Snow, the bastard boy from up north. Sorry, who? Another bloody son of Rhaegar? How many more are there out there?

Ah come on, after all that, after all the blood and treasure lost in supporting one claimant after another, why go through it all again for a nobody with ice in his veins?

[Metopheles]

Whoa. Why the hostility? Your earlier post seemed to imply a timeline that I knew to be incorrect from statements made in the text, so I brought that into the discussion. Now you're presenting a different timeline, which is fine, maybe I misinterpreted your earlier post. I didn't attack you, I didn't even say that your theory was debunked. All I did was point out a fact from the text. Please, tone it down.

wtf? I didn't attack you :'D

suddenly everything I write is now an insult to everyone...-.-

And yes, we just misinterpreted each other. You misunderstood my first post on this, I apparently your answer, you my second post ;)

EDIT: Black Crow

First I don't really know what to make of this..kinda your conclusion at the end

And it doesn't quite answer my post.

Yes there are other possible heirs, one actually..Daenerys. And probably..but not really, Illyrio's son, Aegon.

But that does not answer if the people would care about bastard born Jonny. Would the people rise for him? Accept him, if it is revealed that he is Rhaegar's son (who is might be alive)

[Armstark]

EDIT: Black Crow

First I don't really know what to make of this..kinda your conclusion at the end

And it doesn't quite answer my post.

Yes there are other possible heirs, one actually..Daenerys. And probably..but not really, Illyrio's son, Aegon.

But that does not answer if the people would care about bastard born Jonny. Would the people rise for him? Accept him, if it is revealed that he is Rhaegar's son (who is might be alive)

I think nobody south of the neck would care at all. They would not accept him nor rise for him. Of course a lot of this depends on the circumstances of the reveal and the evidence but I can't imagine anything that would inspire people to rise for an unknown bastard from the North who claims to be Rhaegar's trueborn son. Especially considering what BlackCrow described: too many Targaryen pretenders already.

[Amoracchius]

wtf? I didn't attack you :'D

suddenly everything I write is now an insult to everyone...-.-

And yes, we just misinterpreted each other. You misunderstood my first post on this, I apparently your answer, you my second post ;)

EDIT: Black Crow

First I don't really know what to make of this..kinda your conclusion at the end

And it doesn't quite answer my post.

Yes there are other possible heirs, one actually..Daenerys. And probably..but not really, Illyrio's son, Aegon.

But that does not answer if the people would care about bastard born Jonny. Would the people rise for him? Accept him, if it is revealed that he is Rhaegar's son (who is might be alive)

You are growing increasingly dismissive of other posters and I really don't appreciate it. Your response to me pointing out a fact from the text was "So?" You then accused me of not paying attention. When I asked you to please tone it down, your response was "wtf." Yet, you can't understand why people are growing frustrated with your responses.

Good luck with this thread, but I'm done.

[Modesty Lannister]

See, GRRM confused you with that answer too… here is the definition:

Deus ex machina (pronounced [ˈdeus eks ˈmaː.kʰi.na], /ˈdeɪ.əs ɛks ˈmɑːkiːnə/ or /ˈdiːəs ɛks ˈmækɨnə/^[1]; from Latin, meaning "god from the machine"; plural: dei ex machina) is a plot device whereby a seemingly unsolvable problem is suddenly and abruptly resolved by the contrived and unexpected intervention of some new event, character, ability or object. Depending on how it is done, it can be intended to move the story forward when the writer has "painted themself into a corner" and sees no other way out, to surprise the audience, to bring the tale to a happy ending, or as a comedic device.

I'm not confused. I know what I wrote. I saw these definitions on the internet and frankly, I'm surprised how stupid they are. I'll provide you with one from Encyclopaedia Britannica:

deus ex machina, ( Latin: “god from the machine”) a person or thing that appears or is introduced into a situation suddenly and unexpectedly and provides an artificial or contrived solution to an apparently insoluble difficulty.

The term was first used in ancient Greek and Roman drama, where it meant the timely appearance of a god to unravel and resolve the plot. The deus ex machina was named for the convention of the god’s appearing in the sky, an effect achieved by means of a crane (Greek: mēchanē). The dramatic device dates from the 5th century bc; a god appears in Sophocles’ Philoctetes and in most of the plays ofEuripides to solve a crisis by divine intervention.

Since ancient times, the phrase has also been applied to an unexpected saviour or to an improbable event that brings order out of chaos (e.g., the arrival, in time to avert tragedy, of the U.S. cavalry in a western film).

[Black Crow]

EDIT: Black Crow

First I don't really know what to make of this..kinda your conclusion at the end

And it doesn't quite answer my post.

Yes there are other possible heirs, one actually..Daenerys. And probably..but not really, Illyrio's son, Aegon.

But that does not answer if the people would care about bastard born Jonny. Would the people rise for him? Accept him, if it is revealed that he is Rhaegar's son (who is might be alive)

What Armstark said. Jon comes at the tail end of a long line of pretenders after too many people have died supporting them. Nobody is going to care.

[JNR]

Deus ex machina (pronounced [ˈdeus eks ˈmaː.kʰi.na], /ˈdeɪ.əs ɛks ˈmɑːkiːnə/ or /ˈdiːəs ɛks ˈmækɨnə/^[1]; from Latin, meaning "god from the machine"; plural: dei ex machina) is a plot device whereby a seemingly unsolvable problem is suddenly and abruptly resolved by the contrived and unexpected intervention of some new event, character, ability or object. Depending on how it is done, it can be intended to move the story forward when the writer has "painted themself into a corner" and sees no other way out, to surprise the audience, to bring the tale to a happy ending, or as a comedic device.

An accurate definition.

Still, the phrase deux ex machina confuses many people. Perhaps it should be replaced with something etymologically clearer that means the same thing.

For instance: conclusio ex rectum.

[Black Crow]

Or for those not of a Latin bent: "With one bound Jack was free!"

[Modesty Lannister]

Jon Arryn is smarter than that and more honourable too.

I see absolutely no evidence of that in the text. John Arryn fostered two very different boys who turned out very differently - Ned and Robert.

He never did anything out of good nature of his heart, rather he did it because it was well reasoned and favourable for him personally and his kingdom - the Vale.

He was the only true winner of Robert's rebellion. He manipulated Robert into marrying Cersei against his wishes thus gaining alliance with Tywin (whom I see as his western counterpart for they seem very similar in the way they operate). Since we know that in that society fostering had mainly two reasons: helping less fortunate, but promising lords while securing their obedience (LF) or keeping hostages to secure alliances and/or obedience of more powerful lords, one has to go back and see why would John Arryn keep the heir to Storm's End and the second in the line to inherit Winterfell? Robert's parents died at sea and it would be only natural for young Robert to take over like young Bran did when everyone else left Winterfell. But instead he was sent to John Arryn. Who was left in charge? Probably castelan Ser Penrose. So, the heir of the house, which has been traditionally close to Targeryens is raised by John Arryn for no apparent reason and the result is that that house (which incidentally is closely related to the ruling house and stands to inherit in case of Targaryen total demise) rebels after centuries of loyalty and kinship and takes over the throne. What about Ned? He was separated from his family at the age of 8 for no apparent reason. He was raised in the Vale, thinks of John Arryn as his father, but never shares with us a single memory of him growing up with such a loving man. Not a single memory. Meanwhile, the alliance between the North, the Vale and the Riverlands grows. Starks and Tullies forge an alliance through engagement between Catelyn and Brandon. Starks and Baratheons forge the same alliance through the Robert/Lyanna match, obviously brokered by John Arryn. Hoster Tully tries to get an alliance with the Lannisters by attempting to engage Lysa to Jaime, but it falls through. Why? Tywin certainly took it into serious consideration, otherwise he would not send Jaime to meet the Tullies. It was actually Cersei who destroyed this plan by talking king Aerys into taking Jaime into KG against Tywin's wishes. So, Tullies planned to ally themselves with the Starks and the Lannisters through marriage. The Starks allied themselves to the Riverlands, the Baratheons and to the Vale by allowing their second son to be fostered there while the lord of the Vale held another hostage (no euphemisms, plain truth pls) - the heir to Storm's End. Rickard did not hide his "southern ambition" while John Arryn kept his hands clean until the last moment. Do you see a pattern emerging? If John Arryn was to marry Lysa Tully BEFORE the rebellion after Tywin resigned and left for CR, it would be rather obvious to king Aerys that he was indeed not paranoid when he thought there was a huge conspiracy being woven behind his back. This way all these alliances were not that obvious, because Arryn had his heir and seemed totally disinterested in all these marriages between the houses of lords paramount, marriages that were not customary before that. Tywin was fuming in CR because his son and heir was effectively king's hostage instead of happily married and producing heirs to CR. So, who in this pattern links everyone? Incidentally the same person who truly won the rebellion jumping from the lord paramount to the Hand with one strike and effectively ruling 7 kingdoms for more than a decade. John Arryn. Brandon, Rickard and Arryn's heir were easily expandable and an excellent excuse for John Arryn. His hands were clean yet again. He was never forging an alliance against Aerys, he was only taking a rightful revenge against that mad king. His hands remained clean. One cannot say he wasn't grateful. He compensated Tywin for the loss of Tully alliance and his great service of eliminating RT's children and paving the path for his foster son (pawn) to become king by making Cersei queen, which Aerys refused to do. I'd remind everyone that Joanna and her best friend princess of Dorne planned a double wedding of their children. The princess was later refused by Tywin who planned to marry Jaime to Lysa and Cersei to Rhaegar. Why were Riverlands more important to Tywin than Dorne? Because Riverlands link him and his trade with the rest of the country and keep his immediate back safe while Cersei's marriage to Rhaegar would cement the second overall position of the Lannisters behind Targaryens. After being refused on Cersei front and tricked into losing his heir, Tywin must have been very pissed off and revenge thirsty. Here comes John Arryn (his new best friend). Tywin rendered his service of butchery (and revenge on RT for refusing his daughter) and gained what he seeked - the second position for the Lannisters. But who was at position no. 1? John Arryn. Sounds like Littlefinger? Well, it is interesting that it is exactly Littlefinger who is the present actual lord of the Vale and is currently trying to recreate John Arryn's grand plan with Sansa as the key marriage player, much like Lysa had once been. What a lovely irony. Or is it irony or did LF learn something from the time he was fostered by Hoster Tully who was obviously mates with our dear clean handed uncle John Arryn? And finally, it is no surprise Ned fled from the whole freak show never to return after the rebellion. Starks lost their head of the house and its heir and gained nothing what-so-ever. Plus, Lyanna was portrayed as the cause of the war, a reckless girl who fled with the crown prince plunging 7 kingdoms into chaos for love and lust. I'd build a wall at Moat Cailin if I were Ned. And when Robert asks him to become Hand, he wants to refuse, he wants to stay away from the big scheming. Why? Because he knows well how big scheming looks like and knows that his family was cheated the last time. And when he arrives to KL what does he do? He read Lysa's letter alleging Lannisters were behind the poisoning. Does he investigate that? No. He investigates what John Arryn investigated before him. So, he was more interested in John Arryn's mind and how it worked in his last months than anything else. Why? Because he knew the man, he knew how his mind worked and he knew John Arryn was up to something big. Something that may be used against someone. So, by finding what John Arryn wanted to use against someone, Ned hoped to get to the motive behind his murder. A very unusual way to investigate the death of an honourable man.

[ThunderG]

I refer you to one I made earlier:

Let's look at it logically. If he or anybody else was to promote Jon Snow as the rightful King of Westeros he needs to get to the back of a very long and very expensive queue:

Aerys pops his clogs in King's Landing, along with various other members of the Royal family, his eldest son Rhaegar has already died at the Trident so who's next?

1. First off the blocks is Viserys Targaryen, the King's second son. The first son (ungrateful wretch) has gotten himself killed along with his known children so it seems a straightforward claim. Except he's also the Beggar King and as his sister sadly observes, no dragon.

2. Then there's the sister, again a good claim albeit she's a woman, but she does have dragons so there's no doubting she's Aerys' daughter. Trouble is she's in the land of far far away and by all accounts making a complete hash of things.

3. Fear not, up comes number three, Aegon son of Rhaegar and allegedly not dead after all. Great start, unlike 1 & 2 he's actually made it to Westeros, raised his banners and isn't demonstrably mad. In fact looks pretty good all round. OK too good to be true but we're the readers not the actors and real or not he's a better bet than Cersei Lannister.

4. Yes there is a four, because following all historical precedent if no.3 comes to an untimely end as confidently predicted there's too much at stake for someone else not to turn up proclaiming himself the true Aegon, or for that matter if Aegon could be spirited away from that massacre at King's Landing what of his sister, might she too have gotten away and be available? Never mind Perkin Warbeck, there's scope enough for a whole string of False Dimitri claimants.

5. And so we come to Kit Harrington, sorry Jon Snow, the bastard boy from up north. Sorry, who? Another bloody son of Rhaegar? How many more are there out there?

Ah come on, after all that, after all the blood and treasure lost in supporting one claimant after another, why go through it all again for a nobody with ice in his veins?

Before 5. and probably at 0. we have Stannis Baratheon. His elder brother became king by seizing the iron throne, did not leave a legitimate male heir when dying. Plus he has a drop of Targaryen blood and is male. Granted, he does not have a dragon but a red witch.

[Metopheles]

[....]

That is just brilliant. Agree to ever little bit of it. Amazingly put together!

What makes me wonder now: Was Aerys mad? Was he paranoid? Perhaps. Was he right? Definitely.

He may have been hot tempered and confused and slightly mad, but his paranoia is not unfounded and crazy, he just knew.

Jon Arryn, as high as honour.

[Metopheles]

Before 5. and probably at 0. we have Stannis Baratheon. His elder brother became king by seizing the iron throne, did not leave a legitimate male heir when dying. Plus he has a drop of Targaryen blood and is male. Granted, he does not have a dragon but a red witch.

yep, even if I don't like him, he is the current Targaryen heir.

But Jon, bastard or legitimate, would have a better claim, as he is closer to the true heir, Rhaegar.

[Modesty Lannister]

That is just brilliant. Agree to ever little bit of it. Amazingly put together!

What makes me wonder now: Was Aerys mad? Was he paranoid? Perhaps. Was he right? Definitely.

He may have been hot tempered and confused and slightly mad, but his paranoia is not unfounded and crazy, he just knew.

Jon Arryn, as high as honour.

Thank you. I did my best. I hope it is clear. It's a tapestry of Arryn's scheming.

[Modesty Lannister]

...

The only way to legitimise Jon Snow beyond any doubt is for Rhaegar Targaryen to reappear and do so. Any other attempt would be disputed.

[Metopheles]

What was yet missed out :

Wildlings.

There are a ton of them now in the North. Who will lead them? Who will keep them nice?

Mance? Stannis? And if they are dead or the wildlings decide to disobey Stannis?

They could very well put Jon in charge of the North[assuming the wildlings will be the majority there] and possibly even..South.