Ukraine IX A victory for The West, Putin or Ukraine?

[Ghjhero]

The last topic had over 400 posts so here's the next edition.

As things appear hopefully to be winding down who exactly got the best end of all the events that have occurred? The West, Putin and his Russian ambitions or possibly the Ukrainian people themselves?

[grumdin]

I think the antisemitic fliers handed out in Eastern Ukraine can be safely debunked

http://time.com/67272/ukraine-jew-register-donetsk/

But even if it looked like the start of some racist purge, the flier was more likely part of an ill-conceived extortion plot or a propaganda ploy against the separatists. For one thing, the sign-off at the bottom of the flier Yours, the Peoples Governor of Donetsk, Denis Pushilin seemed off. This was a reference to the so-called Donetsk Peoples Republic, which was formed a week and a half ago by a group of armed separatists who seized the headquarters of the regional government. Theirs is perhaps the smallest breakaway republic in the world, as its territory is confined to that one building and a small patch of the plaza around it. Since April 7, they have barricaded themselves inside with a cache of weapons and demanded a referendum on secession from Ukraine. At the bottom of the flier was a reproduction of the stamp these separatists use on the press badges they have issued to journalists.
...
The separatists ideology rests on two claims that were hard to defend even without their new anti-Semitic label. First, they have said that Ukraines revolution in February brought fascists to power in Kiev, and second, they have insisted that armed separatism is the only way to keep those fascists from taking over eastern Ukraine. At the entrance to their Peoples Republic, on top of a pile of tires, is a poster with a big, crossed-out swastika and the words No Fascism. So for them to be seen as anti-Semites is a particularly painful irony.

It was so crudely done and such an obvious attempt to defame the East Ukrainian rebels that it's backfired horribly. Not for the first time Kerry comes across like a complete idiot.

[Altherion]

As things appear hopefully to be winding down who exactly got the best end of all the events that have occurred? The West, Putin and his Russian ambitions or possibly the Ukrainian people themselves?

I don't think things are necessarily winding down just yet and whether the West or Russia got the best of this situation depends on what happens next. However, I can tell you for sure that the people who got the worst of it are the Ukrainians. There's literally no outcome under which they come out ahead. If the self-proclaimed government in Kiev gets everything it wants, they're still stuck with a nearly bankrupt country that is sustained only by foreign loans the price of which is austerity. If Russia gets everything it wants (which from Putin's latest speech is probably the reclaiming of Novorossiya), the country will be split with the western part now a landlocked rump state (still subject to austerity) and the south east either part of Russia (and under heavy sanctions by the West) or an independent country recognized only by Russia and its few allies. Every other outcome is also bad -- with the exception of a few oligarchs and thugs who have gained power, the Ukrainians just can't win.

[Horza]

I wouldn't be sure that this is over.

But I would say that about the only big winners if a deal along the (very vague) outlines of Geneva holds are the local elites in the Donetsk and Donbass regions, who will benefit from reduced oversight (such as it was) and greater freedom in administrative matters, and possibly the Ukrainian far right, who will have a ready-made revanchist narrative to play with.

When (if?) this does all settle down there will be op-eds aplenty framing Putin as a winner, but from this conflict he emerges a winner in a very specific sense. The course of action he has chosen has disrupted not only Russian economic and great power relations but significantly complicated regional relations for no substantial gain: Russia had deep political, economic and cultural influence in Crimea and East Ukraine on the 27th of February, it has gained little more by prising away one and federalising the other. Putin has clamped down at home and floats on a wave of nationalist sentiment but that is a wave - Russia's economy is now in an ebb tide, damaging his standing within the elite and storing up problems for the future.

[Ramsay Gimp]

I think the antisemitic fliers handed out in Eastern Ukraine can be safely debunked

http://time.com/67272/ukraine-jew-register-donetsk/

It was so crudely done and such an obvious attempt to defame the East Ukrainian rebels that it's backfired horribly. Not for the first time Kerry comes across like a complete idiot.

And yet several family/friends brought it up today, all separately. With Hitler comparisons and all. Even if those who keep close track of this stuff realize its BS, whoever did this succeeded in spreading the "Putin is an anti-semite" idea among the headline-only-public

[Doireidh]

Uh...what?

He's obviously talking about http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_revolution#Deal...

Also, Shryke, read my PM already...it's been 3 days and I'm still waiting for you to clarify what I asked you.

[Phaing]

For the Ukraine to win, they would have to be able to stand on their own and do it without any influence from Putin, or the EU, or most especially the damned IMF.

And as haples and hopeless as they have been so far, I don't see them doing that.

[Shryke]

I wouldn't be sure that this is over.

But I would say that about the only big winners if a deal along the (very vague) outlines of Geneva holds are the local elites in the Donetsk and Donbass regions, who will benefit from reduced oversight (such as it was) and greater freedom in administrative matters, and possibly the Ukrainian far right, who will have a ready-made revanchist narrative to play with.

Except they are rejecting the deal as of now. (relink from last thread: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27076226 , http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27081271 )

He's obviously talking about http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_revolution#Deal...

That's not at all obvious actually because it makes no fucking sense. Because the deal in question was with a government that doesn't exist anymore and was in opposition to the people they are dealing with now.

His comment that "The protesters have absolutely no reason to trust the self-proclaimed Ukrainian government because the latter has already pulled this "deal" trick off once before (in February). " references two parties who have either nothing to do with the current situation or little to do (since the Maidan protests =/= the new government, which you can tell cause the protesters are still there in Kiev demanding shit from the government)

[SkaggCannibal]

I think everyone is losing at the moment, although the West could end up on top eventually. The West hasn't gotten actual damage yet, just not the easy victory it was hoping for. I disagree that the best outcome for Russia would be the annexation of all of Novorossiya. The sanctions + supporting a poorer region in crisis will not be that beneficial. I think Russia still has some hopes for Ukraine joining their Customes Union, although I think this idea can now be be burried and forgotten, it's what this whole mess started in the first place.

The best Russia can hope for is getting the Eastern Regions powerful enough so that they can prevent the whole of Ukraine of ever joining NATO and the EU. If this doesn't happen, I believe they will try other means of preventing it, for instance with a full invasion of the south-east, but more likely just poking up more protests, chaos and unrest in Ukraine. I do not believe sanctions can have any immediate effect on Russian actions. If sanctions would be thoroughly implentented, there is also little leverage left to pressure Russia into not invading.

I would only support real sanctions when there is an actual invasion, a violation bad enough to justify such actions. Sanctions would also hurt the West, not as much as Russia, but I believe bad enough to reverse any recovery we've been seeing in the EU. I also don't get how anyone can argue the sanctions won't hit the regular Russian, or the regular EU citizen. When trade is restricted, the economy will suffer. For instance, my region cultivates a lot of fruit and half of all the exports go to Russia. If this stops (and it certainly would as a counter-sanction), it would be a disaster for a lot of people.

The ones that are certainly losing, are the Ukrainians. But the Ukrainians leaders are also the ones that made the mess in the first place (much like in Greece). How this will play out can't be predicted, but with IMF austerity and a giant neighbour interested in destabilazing the country, it will not be going well for the Ukrainians. It will probably be a contested election, follwed by bad economic results, more protests and eventually just shippering between the West and Russia, as Ukraine has been doing for the last 20 years. And I'm sorry for that.

[Serious Callers Only]

So Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the deputy speaker of the Duma, was involved in a bit of a scandal yesterday. More specifically, he told his aide to rape a female reporter because he didn't like her questions about Ukraine. Oh and she was pregnant.

On Friday, Zhirinovsky went off on a reporter for Russia Today (the newswire, not the television channel), after she asked him about recent Ukrainian moves to crack down on Russian men entering the country.

http://s3-ec.buzzfed.com/static/2014-04/enhanced/webdr05/18/13/anigif_enhanced-27061-1397842851-2.gif

“You’re all bloodthirsty!” Zhirinovsky shouted. “You women of the Maidan all have uterine frenzy,” he said, referring to Kiev’s main protest site. “Without that uterine frenzy there wouldn’t have been Maidan.”

http://s3-ec.buzzfed.com/static/2014-04/enhanced/webdr06/18/15/anigif_enhanced-10237-1397847650-14.gif

Then he called out Ukrainian nationalist Irina Farion. “You think she hates Russians? She loves them! Uterine frenzy — no lover, no husband, nothing. She’s got a beast between her legs! And that fire devil rushes upwards through her dumb bitch tongue.”

http://s3-ec.buzzfed.com/static/2014-04/enhanced/webdr06/18/15/anigif_enhanced-22400-1397848151-1.gif

“You have to do things kindly, nicely. Where are those idiots, come here. You come here too, journalist. OK, I’ll say it then you run up and start raping her hard.”

http://s3-ec.buzzfed.com/static/2014-04/enhanced/webdr02/18/16/anigif_enhanced-17515-1397854414-17.gif

Then he started shouting “Christ has risen! Christ has risen!” and pushed an aide towards the journalist, saying “Go kiss her! Go kiss her!”

http://s3-ec.buzzfed.com/static/2014-04/enhanced/webdr02/18/16/anigif_enhanced-17863-1397854739-10.gif

One of the journalist’s colleagues stepped in and said, “What are you doing? She’s a pregnant girl. This is insulting.” Zhirinovsky replied by saying: “This isn’t a place for pregnant people! If you’re pregnant, go home. Better take care of your child.”

http://s3-ec.buzzfed.com/static/2014-04/enhanced/webdr08/18/17/anigif_enhanced-19134-1397854880-6.gif

Then he called the journalist who defended the other journalist “a lesbian” and said she would lose her job.

http://s3-ec.buzzfed.com/static/2014-04/enhanced/webdr08/18/17/anigif_enhanced-18552-1397855091-4.gif

The deputy speaker of Russia’s lower house of parliament, ladies and gentlemen.

From russia with L-O-V-E

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Zirinovsky is the nut, who when Yeltsin was President, was calling for Russia to take back Alaska, isn't he?

[Jon AS]

Zirinovsky is the nut, who when Yeltsin was President, was calling for Russia to take back Alaska, isn't he?

Yes. Apparently he thought it'd be a great place to stash all those pesky Ukrainians, which makes this oddly topical.

On the other hand "racist nutjob says crazy and offensive things" is not that newsworthy.

[The Iceman of the North]

Seems like good ol' Zhirinovsky is facing a three month ban from speaking in the Duma. Truly there's no freedom of speech in Russia!

ETA: In other news, the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Filaret, are reassuring the Ukrainian people declaring that God would never side with evil, thus the enemy of Ukraine are doomed to fail. Take that Putin!

[Altherion]

That's not at all obvious actually because it makes no fucking sense. Because the deal in question was with a government that doesn't exist anymore and was in opposition to the people they are dealing with now.

His comment that "The protesters have absolutely no reason to trust the self-proclaimed Ukrainian government because the latter has already pulled this "deal" trick off once before (in February). " references two parties who have either nothing to do with the current situation or little to do (since the Maidan protests =/= the new government, which you can tell cause the protesters are still there in Kiev demanding shit from the government)

It makes perfect sense if you understand what actually happened. The February deal was between Yanukovich and the three major opposition parties backing the protesters (Batkivschina, Svoboda and Udar) which now constitute the self-proclaimed government in Kiev. In fact, if you read it, it's signed personally by (among others) Yatseniuk who is currently the prime minister. We know how that deal worked out so the guys in Donetsk have no reason to trust the self-proclaimed government in Kiev.

Zirinovsky is the nut, who when Yeltsin was President, was calling for Russia to take back Alaska, isn't he?

Among other things. He is basically the modern version of a court jester who says extreme and often absurd things for the sake of provoking a reaction.

[E-Ro]

We are sending troops to take part in training exercises in Poland and Estonia, both countries border Russia.

[Ramsay Gimp]

We are sending troops to take part in training exercises in Poland and Estonia, both countries border Russia.

Have to wonder if that leak from the "directly involved official" was intentional by the administration. Trying to send a message to Putin? Trying to appear "tough" to a U.S. audience? Either way, I'm sure the Kremlin will treat any NATO troop build-up as the bluff that it is. We're not going to shoot at Russians over Ukraine and they know it

It's likely that the exercises are meant to reassure Poland and Estonia of their own security in the face of Russian assertiveness.

[Linsox]

Horza is wise, as always. Things can only be said to be winding down when there's a nationwide election that's recognized by all parties. Even then it's the beginning of a long, rocky road.

If Russia gets everything it wants (which from Putin's latest speech is probably the reclaiming of Novorossiya), the country will be split with the western part now a landlocked rump state (still subject to austerity) and the south east either part of Russia (and under heavy sanctions by the West) or an independent country recognized only by Russia and its few allies. Every other outcome is also bad -- with the exception of a few oligarchs and thugs who have gained power, the Ukrainians just can't win.

The good news is this kind of 50/50 split seems less and less likely. People in places like Odessa aren't seeing the same level of madness as Donetsk.

[E-Ro]

Have to wonder if that leak from the "directly involved official" was intentional by the administration. Trying to send a message to Putin? Trying to appear "tough" to a U.S. audience? Either way, I'm sure the Kremlin will treat any NATO troop build-up as the bluff that it is. We're not going to shoot at Russians over Ukraine and they know it

It's likely that the exercises are meant to reassure Poland and Estonia of their own security in the face of Russian assertiveness.

This isn't about shooting Russians. Its about showing Putin that we can station troops on his border. Its a nice fuck you to him. He puts troops near Ukraine, we put some troops near Russia. And if he really wants to fuck around we can put missiles all around him. Problem solved. This is saber rattling at its finest, and there isn't shit he can do about it.

also, there was a shooting in eastern Ukraine involving pro Russians. At least one person is dead. http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/20/world/europe/ukraine-shooting/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

[Altherion]

This isn't about shooting Russians. Its about showing Putin that we can station troops on his border. Its a nice fuck you to him. He puts troops near Ukraine, we put some troops near Russia.

It's a bit asymmetric though. When he puts troops near Ukraine, there is very real possibility that those troops will march into Ukraine. When we put troops near Russia, there is practically no chance of them actually marching into Russia (at least I hope not -- I kind of like this planet) or even into Ukraine.

Regarding the shootings at the Slavyansk checkpoint: Russian news reports six dead (three on each side) and at least 5 wounded. The Eastern protesters claim that the attackers were from the Right Sector. The self-proclaimed Kievan government claims that this is a Russian provocation. In other news, a leader of the protesters has been arrested in Kharkov despite the fact that the agreement called for amnesty. Neither side has done anything at all to clear the streets and occupied buildings. To summarize in one line: the Geneva agreement is being thoroughly ignored by everyone on the ground.

[Mr Fixit]

This isn't about shooting Russians. Its about showing Putin that we can station troops on his border. Its a nice fuck you to him. He puts troops near Ukraine, we put some troops near Russia. And if he really wants to fuck around we can put missiles all around him. Problem solved. This is saber rattling at its finest, and there isn't shit he can do about it.

Is it we already, Ser Barristan?