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What if Catelyn had never set Jaime Lannister free?


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I guess Jaimie would have been kept at Riverrun and Tywin would never would go through with the Red Wedding, unless the Boltons could be somehow be convinced to secure him first, which I doubt.

I agree once Jaime was released and Tywin knew he wasn't under the control of the Starks anymore he felt free to plan the of the two known living Starks with his conspirators.

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The original plan of the RW was to keep both Edmure and Cat hostage, presumably to exchange for Jaime. So I think Tywin would have gone through with it anyway.



I still think it could have gone sour for Tywin after all. Given Cat's emotional breakdown I could see her killing herself shortly after the wedding. The Blackfish would have changed Jaime for Cat, but not for Edmure, since he was ready to die. Most likely the Blackfish sends the Freys Jaime's head, and shortly after they send him Edmure's and storm Riverrun. Tywin would be alive and Tyrion dead, with no Jaime to bust him out of the black cells.


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Tywin is ruthless and had already written off Jaime so he would go ahead with the Red Wedding anyway whether or not Lady Catelyn had released Jaime.

Did he though? After the Selmy dilemma he had high hopes to release Jaimie from the KG and finally make him his heir.

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If Cat did not release Jaime then the Karstarks would not have deserted. Her action of releasing Jaime did not lead to the RW, imo. Robb breaking his vow and marrying Jeyne is what led to the RW. Jaime seems to thinks so too.



“Jaime had met Jeyne Westerling, he thought, though he could not recall what she looked like. She must be fair indeed, to have been worth a kingdom.”

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The original plan of the RW was to keep both Edmure and Cat hostage, presumably to exchange for Jaime. So I think Tywin would have gone through with it anyway.

I still think it could have gone sour for Tywin after all. Given Cat's emotional breakdown I could see her killing herself shortly after the wedding. The Blackfish would have changed Jaime for Cat, but not for Edmure, since he was ready to die. Most likely the Blackfish sends the Freys Jaime's head, and shortly after they send him Edmure's and storm Riverrun. Tywin would be alive and Tyrion dead, with no Jaime to bust him out of the black cells.

I don't think it would have worked though. As soon as they heard their king was dead someone would have gone and cut Jamie's throat (Karstark maybe, if he was still around then), without even thinking as far as Cat and Edmure being hostages.

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I don't think it would have worked though. As soon as they heard their king was dead someone would have gone and cut Jamie's throat (Karstark maybe, if he was still around then), without even thinking as far as Cat and Edmure being hostages.

Yeah, I think so too, but I guess Tywin had to try something and that was his best choice

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The idea that RW would have never happened if Catelyn didn't release Jaime because Tywin would fear for Jaime's life is one of the greatest misconceptions.



Tywin, as GRRM said, is not a man easily to be intimidated by the hostages, as shown the example from his youth with Lady Tarbeck. Then we have Defiance of Duskendale and his reluctance to budge, and lastly this case. True, GRRM has also said that Jaime was always special and that certainly Tywin would think twice. But, to find out what would have happened in this what/if scenario, all we have to do is to remember what Tywin did during RR. After refusing to help both rebels and royalists, Tywin gathered the army at Casterly Rock and marched to KL, fully aware of what his choice is and what Aerys has nearby him - Jaime. Tywin went with his army to KL, ready to sack the city even though Aerys had Jaime. This nails the coffin to the idea that Tywin wouldn't have organized the RW without Jaime being free. Not to mention the fact that timeline doesn't fit, since Boltons and Freys already arranged the treason at Roose/Fat Walda wedding.



So, all and all, yes, RW would still have happened even if Jaime wasn't released.


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The idea that RW would have never happened if Catelyn didn't release Jaime because Tywin would fear for Jaime's life is one of the greatest misconceptions.

Tywin, as GRRM said, is not a man easily to be intimidated by the hostages, as shown the example from his youth with Lady Tarbeck. Then we have Defiance of Duskendale and his reluctance to budge, and lastly this case. True, GRRM has also said that Jaime was always special and that certainly Tywin would think twice. But, to find out what would have happened in this what/if scenario, all we have to do is to remember what Tywin did during RR. After refusing to help both rebels and royalists, Tywin gathered the army at Casterly Rock and marched to KL, fully aware of what his choice is and what Aerys has nearby him - Jaime. Tywin went with his army to KL, ready to sack the city even though Aerys had Jaime. This nails the coffin to the idea that Tywin wouldn't have organized the RW without Jaime being free. Not to mention the fact that timeline doesn't fit, since Boltons and Freys already arranged the treason at Roose/Fat Walda wedding.

So, all and all, yes, RW would still have happened even if Jaime wasn't released.

All true about jamie and tywin BUT

If jamie remains karstark doesnt go on a rampage and force robb to take his head.

Roose now has the fact robbs hold on the north is that much stronger and that any suprise attack has a lot more men to deal with

Robb also wouldnt be in such dire straights that hed consider letting theon go

His mum can also be sent home to do somthing uselful , like vist all those awesome northern mountain clans and remind them of 'the ned' and her sons need for warriors.

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All true about jamie and tywin BUT

If jamie remains karstark doesnt go on a rampage and force robb to take his head.

Roose now has the fact robbs hold on the north is that much stronger and that any suprise attack has a lot more men to deal with

Robb also wouldnt be in such dire straights that hed consider letting theon go

His mum can also be sent home to do somthing uselful , like vist all those awesome northern mountain clans and remind them of 'the ned' and her sons need for warriors.

The problem is that Roose betrayed Robb before Karstark killed the Lannister boys and was executed. Winterfell sack by Ramsay also happened before that. So, Roose's betrayal hasn't been something that was instigated by Karstark execution and abandonment.

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The problem is that Roose betrayed Robb before Karstark killed the Lannister boys and was executed. Winterfell sack by Ramsay also happened before that. So, Roose's betrayal hasn't been something that was instigated by Karstark execution and abandonment.

true forgot the timeline of events there

So the

the karstarks still stay with robb and cat id imagine will go the KL instead to negotiate for sansa back.

yeah red wedding still occurs then with higher frey casulties though

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I don't think the RW would have happened. Not because Tywin would have feared for Jaime's life, but because there would've been no need for a wedding whatsoever. If Jaime had still been Robb's hostage, Rickard Karstark wouldn't have gone all crazy on the Lannister boys. Robb wouldn't have executed him, the Karstarks wouldn't have left, Robb's army wouldn't have been outnumbered and thus he wouldn't have had the need to reconcile with the Freys.


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I don't think the RW would have happened. Not because Tywin would have feared for Jaime's life, but because there would've been no need for a wedding whatsoever. If Jaime had still been Robb's hostage, Rickard Karstark wouldn't have gone all crazy on the Lannister boys. Robb wouldn't have executed him, the Karstarks wouldn't have left, Robb's army wouldn't have been outnumbered and thus he wouldn't have had the need to reconcile with the Freys.

Karstark only had two thousand men. The fast way North is still the Twins. If he took the long way, Twyin would have just smashed him will Roose stabs him in the back.

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The idea that RW would have never happened if Catelyn didn't release Jaime because Tywin would fear for Jaime's life is one of the greatest misconceptions.

Tywin, as GRRM said, is not a man easily to be intimidated by the hostages, as shown the example from his youth with Lady Tarbeck. Then we have Defiance of Duskendale and his reluctance to budge, and lastly this case. True, GRRM has also said that Jaime was always special and that certainly Tywin would think twice. But, to find out what would have happened in this what/if scenario, all we have to do is to remember what Tywin did during RR. After refusing to help both rebels and royalists, Tywin gathered the army at Casterly Rock and marched to KL, fully aware of what his choice is and what Aerys has nearby him - Jaime. Tywin went with his army to KL, ready to sack the city even though Aerys had Jaime. This nails the coffin to the idea that Tywin wouldn't have organized the RW without Jaime being free. Not to mention the fact that timeline doesn't fit, since Boltons and Freys already arranged the treason at Roose/Fat Walda wedding.

So, all and all, yes, RW would still have happened even if Jaime wasn't released.

Yet, the conditions would have been different. Without Jaime's release, Karstark wouldn't have killed the Lannister boys, therefore, Robb wouldn't have executed him. The Karstarks wouldn't have left and Robb wouldn't have had the need for Walder Frey's men. So, no RW could have been planned. Still, with Bolton's true allegiance to the Lannisters I'm sure they would have found another way of betraying Robb. But not through the RW.

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