Future for the war of the Pretenders

[The Sea Snake]

Okay, I was thinking on how the war of the pretenders could play out in the following books.

I've come up with a few conclusions and predictions.. though some of them might just be wishful thinking (you know how George is, right? ...so no way to know for sure what could happen).

Okay, now I see a couple of players left from the Original 5 of the Wot5k.

First we have the Lannister/frey/Bolton alliance that supports King Tommen. The tyrells could loosely fall in this team, thou we know their alliance is fickle and heavily depends on what happens next at KL.

Then we have Aegon son of Rhaegar, who (real or not) has arrieved into Westeros with no less than the Golden Company and allies in both King's Landing (like varys) and Essos (like Illyrio Mopatis) and a solid base at the Stormlands (so yeah, def a new player to be reckoned)

Then we have Stannis, who is trying to rally the North (and all the "good" houses in my opinion) and presenting battle to the Freys/Boltons.

Lastly we have the Dornishmen.. but they are torn between crowning Myrcella or supporting Danny. And I think that it is a safe bet to believe that Doran will rally for his nephew Aegon once their alligence is sought. Which, works logistically as well since they are currently next to each other.

I do believe that the Lannisters are dwindling down. Cersei is going absolutely mad, and I think Jaime will end up killing her fullfiling the wood's witch prophecy (thou this is not strictly relevant to the Lannister's fall from power). Their biggest lords; Ser Kevan and Lord Tywin are now dead.. So I think their end is around the corner.

Then I also think that Stannis will Rally the North putting Rickon back into the seat of Winterfell and having the whole Northmen behind his back.

I think that Stannis is the strongest candidate (given the lack of them) to rally Robb Stark's supporters. Think about it, most loyal northern houses already have. Add Rickon into the equation.

Then, add the Blackfish who I think will eventually lead the Brotherhood once UnCat is done with her pointless revenge (or the BwB is done with her, given that it was created to defend the poor in the riverlands, not to sow vengance). He will likely rally to Stannis in support of his nephew and Robb's heir, Rickon Stark (I gotta say that it is the only point I see for Rickon being placed into the story at all, since all the Stark children seem to have a role to play.)

Then, if Sansa indeed kills LF as many are led to believe with the prophecy of the GoHH... and she ends up marrying Harry the Heir, the Vale will most likely rally for Stannis as well (if we continue on this line of thinking of uniting Robb's former supporters). Let us not forget that the most influential Lord of the Vale; Bronze Yhon Royce was a fierce supporter of the Young Wolf and put tremendous pressure on Late lady Arryn to declare for him and join the wot5k.

That being said, we have the best part of the North, a crippled but rebellious Riverlands, and an unbled Vale to fight for Stannis (if things play out this way) against The Freys, The Boltons and the weakened Lannisters.

You can do the math to see who would win.

That is the impression i got when reviewing the last advances in the battles of Stannis vs the Boltons/Freys.

I also do not think that Danny will end up contending for the Iron Throne (to Ser Barristan dissapointment)... Her roots are deep on the East and she is already carving an Empire for herself. I think her role will end up being breaking the bonds of slavery for good, and only going to Westeros to fight the Others, but not to claim the Throne. I mean we have waited for 5 books for her return and we are running out of pages... I'm just not so convinced anymore.

I also think that Jon's role is battling the Others rather than meddling in the politics of Westeros.. The same goes for Bran. So I don't see any of them claiming Winterfell (or the IT itself).

There is a great deal of speculation in this, I know, but it's just a theory. I still don't see how the Ironborn fit in all this, or what will happen with the Tyrells and the Martells, or the Holly Army of the High Sparrow, or if Aegon will turn up to be real or not (I really hope he is.. It would seem strange if he weren't after all Ser Cornington's inner dialogue and the love he had for Rhaegar.. And I don't think he could have been fooled either).

One thing is for sure, the players have changed, and a second tide of war is about to break.

I'd love to hear people's opinion on Westeros' Future!

[Drake Heath]

The Others are going to show up in droves and make a lot of things in Westeros irrelevant.

[Audrey Arryn]

I agree on Dany, that she will end up not contending for the throne

[The Sea Snake]

The Others are going to show up in droves and make a lot of things in Westeros irrelevant.

I know, and I do believe that the story is about the war for dawn.

But it would not be aSoIaF if this stuff were irrelevant. I think they are parallel.

If the story were about fighting the others and not also about men struggling for power, it would have taken George one simple book to write it, instead of seven I do believe

[Lee-Sensei]

Okay, I was thinking on how the word of the pretenders could play out in the following books.

I've come up with a few conclusions and predictions.. though some of them might just be wishful thinking (you know how George is, right? ...so no way to know for sure what could happen).

Okay, now I see a couple of players left from the Original 5 of the Wot5k.

First we have the Lannister/frey/Bolton alliance that supports King Tommen. The tyrells could loosely fall in this team, thou we know their alliance is fickle and heavily depends on what happens next at KL.

The Tyrells can't switch allegiance at this point. They're already bound to the Lannisters through marriage.

Then we have Aegon son of Rhaegar, who (real or not) has arrieved into Westeros with no less than the Golden Company and allies in both King's Landing (like varys) and Essos (like Illyrio Mopatis) and a solid base at the Stormlands (so yeah, def a new player to be reckoned)

Then we have Stannis, who is trying to rally the North (and all the "good" houses in my opinion) and presenting battle to the Freys/Boltons.

What do you mean by "all the good Houses"?

Lastly we have the Dornishmen.. but they are torn between crowning Myrcella or supporting Danny. And I think that it is a safe bet to believe that Doran will rally for his nephew Aegon once their alligence is sought. Which, works logistically as well since they are currently next to each other.

I do believe that the Lannisters are dwindling down. Cersei is going absolutely mad, and I think Jaime will end up killing her fullfiling the wood's witch prophecy (thou this is not strictly relevant to the Lannister's fall from power). Their biggest lords; Ser Kevan and Lord Tywin are now dead.. So I think their end is around the corner.

Then I also think that Stannis will Rally the North putting Rickon back into the seat of Winterfell and having the whole Northmen behind his back.

I think that Stannis is the strongest candidate (given the lack of them) to rally Robb Stark's supporters. Think about it, most loyal northern houses already have. Add Rickon into the equation.

Then, add the Blackfish who I think will eventually lead the Brotherhood once UnCat is done with her pointless revenge (or the BwB is done with her, given that it was created to defend the poor in the riverlands, not to sow vengance). He will likely rally to Stannis in support of his nephew and Robb's heir, Rickon Stark (I gotta say that it is the only point I see for Rickon being placed into the story at all, since all the Stark children seem to have a role to play.)

I agree with all of this.

Then, if Sansa indeed kills LF as many are led to believe with the prophecy of the GoHH... and she ends up marrying Harry the Heir, the Vale will most likely rally for Stannis as well (if we continue on this line of thinking of uniting Robb's former supporters). Let us not forget that most influential Lord of the Vale; Bronze Yhon Royce was a fierce supporter of the Young Wolf and put tremendous pressure on Late lady Arryn to declare for him and join the wot5k.

Bronze Yohn never wanted the Vale lords to swear fealty to Robb and I doubt they'd support Sansa if she kills an Arryn.

That being said, we have the best part of the North, a crippled but rebellious Riverlands, and an unbled Vale to fight for Stannis (if things play out this way) against The Freys, The Boltons and the weakened Lannisters.

You can do the math to see who would win.

That is the impression i got when reviewing the last advances in the battles of Stannis vs the Boltons/Freys.

I also do not think that Danny will end up contending for the Iron Throne (to Ser Barristan dissapointment)... Her roots are deep on the East and she is already carving an Empire for herself. I think her role will end up being breaking the bonds of slavery for good, and only going to Westeros to fight the Others, but not to claim the Throne. I mean we have waited for 5 books for her return and we are running out of pages... I'm just not so convinced anymore.

That's possible.

[The Sea Snake]

The Tyrells can't switch allegiance at this point. They're already bound to the Lannisters through marriage.

Oh but they can. Don't forget about all the things that are boiling down at Kings Landing with the Faith Trials against Cersei and Margery. There is a personal war between the queens. And don't forget that Tommen is just a boy and the Marriage had not been consumated, and can therefore be undone. Margery has done that twice, so what's keeping her from doing it thrice?

First we need to see how those events play out to know which way the Tyrells will go.

What do you mean by "all the good Houses"?

By "good" I meant those that are ruled by Nobler men and the ones who still stay loyal to the Starks. Cant help to feel (even in a aSoIaF universe) that the stark are the good guys and the Boltons are the bad guys. So therefore with "good" I'm referring to characters like Robett and Galbart Glover or the Greatjon, or Lord Manderly and with "bad" I mean characters like Roose and Ramsay Bolton or Arnolf Karstark.

Bronze Yohn never wanted the Vale lords to swear fealty to Robb and I doubt they'd support Sansa if she kills an Arryn.

I guess you are right about Royce turning his back on sansa if she kills little Robert. But bottom-line is that she does not need to do this herself. Maybe LF will kill him and Sansa will kill HIM afterwards. Or not all, and if LF is out of the picture Bronze Yohn would likely become Lord Regent of the Vale until Robbert Arryn came of age .. the Important thing is that Bronze Yohn Royce was pressuring Lysa to join the war, presumably in the defense of Riverrun against the Lannisters.. It was admited by Lysa herself (and according to the wiki it was in aSoS, chapter 68, Sansa)

[Lee-Sensei]

By "good" I meant those that are ruled by Nobler men and the ones who still stay loyal to the Starks. Cant help to feel (even in a aSoIaF universe) that the stark are the good guys and the Boltons are the bad guys. So therefore with "good" I'm referring to characters like Robett and Galbart Glover or the Greatjon, or Lord Manderly and with "bad" I mean characters like Roose and Ramsay Bolton or Arnolf Karstark.

Oh. I don't think they're the only good Houses by that definition though.

I guess you are right about Royce turning his back on sansa if she kills little Robert. But bottom-line is that she does not need to do this herself. Maybe LF will kill him and Sansa will kill HIM afterwards. Or not all, and if LF is out of the picture Bronze Yohn would likely become Lord Regent of the Vale until Robbert Arryn came of age .. the Important thing is that Bronze Yohn Royce was pressuring Lysa to join the war, presumably in the defense of Riverrun against the Lannisters.. It was admited by Lysa herself (and according to the wiki it was in aSoS, chapter 68, Sansa)

Lysa told the Vale Lords that Tyrion killed Jon Arryn and they wanted to avenge his death (much like the Lords of the North) wanted to avenge Ned and now Robb. I think that Sansa was exagerrating when she said that the all wanted to rebel in order to fight for Robb. A kid most of them had never even met and the ones who did only sparingly. Most likely they wanted to avenge Jon Arryn and perhaps to a lesser extent Robert and Ned.

[The Sea Snake]

Oh. I don't think they're the only good Houses by that definition though.

Yeah I know, just named some from the top of my head. What I originally meant is that George kinda clustered all the evil men in the North/Riverlands around the Freys and the Boltons. So all their rivals have only Stannis to join if they wanna fight against them (not out of loyalty to Stannis himself)

Lysa told the Vale Lords that Tyrion killed Jon Arryn and they wanted to avenge his death (much like the Lords of the North) wanted to avenge Ned and now Robb. I think that Sansa was exagerrating when she said that the all wanted to rebel in order to fight for Robb. A kid most of them had never even met and the ones who did only sparingly. Most likely they wanted to avenge Jon Arryn and perhaps to a lesser extent Robert and Ned.

I did not mean Sansa's notion. I meant this:

"I have a few notions," said Lord Petyr. "But just now I am more interested in what I might do with you, my lady."

All the sternness melted off her aunt's round pink face, and for a moment Sansa thought Lysa Arryn was about to cry. "Sweet Petyr, I've missed you so, you don't know, you can't know. Yohn Royce has been stirring up all sorts of trouble, demanding that I call my banners and go to war. And the others all swarm around me, Hunter and Corbray and that dreadful Nestor Royce, all wanting to wed me and take my son to ward, but none of them truly love me. Only you, Petyr. I've dreamed of you so long."

This is clear evidence that Royce did want to go to war. I just assumed from the context that he meant to ally with Robb, given that he as you well said wanted to avenge Jon Arryn. Plus we have the Blackfish and fondness for Ned. So basically I don't see many other candidates that the Lords of the Vale would have allied with.

[Lee-Sensei]

Yeah I know, just named some from the top of my head. What I originally meant is that George kinda clustered all the evil men in the North/Riverlands around the Freys and the Boltons. So all their rivals have only Stannis to join if they wanna fight against them (not out of loyalty to Stannis himself)

I did not mean Sansa's notion. I meant this:

"I have a few notions," said Lord Petyr. "But just now I am more interested in what I might do with you, my lady."

All the sternness melted off her aunt's round pink face, and for a moment Sansa thought Lysa Arryn was about to cry. "Sweet Petyr, I've missed you so, you don't know, you can't know. Yohn Royce has been stirring up all sorts of trouble, demanding that I call my banners and go to war. And the others all swarm around me, Hunter and Corbray and that dreadful Nestor Royce, all wanting to wed me and take my son to ward, but none of them truly love me. Only you, Petyr. I've dreamed of you so long."

This is clear evidence that Royce did want to go to war. I just assumed from the context that he meant to ally with Robb, given that he as you well said wanted to avenge Jon Arryn. Plus we have the Blackfish and fondness for Ned. So basically I don't see many other candidates that the Lords of the Vale would have allied with.

What about the Baratheons? They're the rightful Kings and Robert grew up in the Vale just like Ned. If we're being honest he probably made more friends.

[The Sea Snake]

Well probably so. But for the sake of my theory they would now represent the same side :dunno:

Besides I don't think the Vale would stand iddle for 7 straight books. Just kinda makes no sense. And I'd love to see what the Runes in the Royces' armor do

[Fire Eater]

I also do not think that Danny will end up contending for the Iron Throne (to Ser Barristan dissapointment)... Her roots are deep on the East and she is already carving an Empire for herself. I think her role will end up being breaking the bonds of slavery for good, and only going to Westeros to fight the Others, but not to claim the Throne. I mean we have waited for 5 books for her return and we are running out of pages... I'm just not so convinced anymore.

Except the clues in the text as well as GRRM himself point to a second Dance of Dragons, where Dany will war with Aegon. In her last POV, she has decided to go to Westeros to take the IT.

I'd love to hear people's opinion on Westeros' Future!

(I really hope he is.. It would seem strange if he weren't after all Ser Cornington's inner dialogue and the love he had for Rhaegar.. And I don't think he could have been fooled either).

Except, the last time Connington saw Aegon, he was a baby while he was given fAegon as a young boy. He was eager to redeem himself to the point he was willing to accept the story given him. Of course he thinks Aegon is real, do you think Varys and Illyrio would have told Connington if Aegon wasn't Rhaegar's son?

Dany is going to have some pretext for fighting Aegon.

Aegon will be killed in the second Dance, and then it will be down to Dany, Myrcella and Stannis. I made a thread about where the plot would go.

[Mithras]

I mostly disagree with the OP.

First of all, with Tywin dead Roose desires to be King in the North. This is stated by Lady Dustin.

“Truth be told,” she said, “Lord Bolton aspires to more than mere lordship. Why not King of the North? Tywin Lannister is dead, the Kingslayer is maimed, the Imp is fled. The Lannisters are a spent force, and you were kind enough to rid him of the Starks. Old Walder Frey will not object to his fat little Walda becoming a queen. White Harbor might prove troublesome should Lord Wyman survive this coming battle … but I am quite sure that he will not. No more than Stannis. Roose will remove both of them, as he removed the Young Wolf.”

However, the Boltons are doomed to fail. And the North will not follow Stannis once the Boltons and Freys in the North are annihilated. Stannis will never be a serious contender for the throne again and Massey will not get any sellswords for him. That deal with the IB is only a paper and as Ned might ruefully remind us, papers can be torn.

Vale and Riverlands including the remnants of Robb’s army (several thousand of them) are bound to Dany. Dany and fAegon will be the two claimants in the Dance of Dragons 2.0.

Just like the North didnot participate in the first Dance except a few thousand soldiers, they will not look south in the second Dance too because they have far more serious concerns (The Others and the Long Night).

Tyrells are doomed to fail too. Euron will bleed them a lot and fAegon will steal their bannermen. Dorne, Stormlands and the Reach are bound to fAegon. Once Euron is dead and the ironborn are defeated in Oldtown, they will step back from the scene and heal their wounds under the rule of The Reader.

I think neither Dany nor fAegon will have the chance to take the KL as they will be engaged in serious battles with each other. Cersei will continue her madness in KL quite a while. And once Dany wins the Dance and marches on KL, Cersei will burn the capitol.

[LordStoneheart]

Then, add the Blackfish who I think will eventually lead the Brotherhood once UnCat is done with her pointless revenge (or the BwB is done with her, given that it was created to defend the poor in the riverlands, not to sow vengance).

Catelyn's revenge is not pointless. She is continuing the war, but has to do it stealthily. Robb went to war for Eddard. No one calls that revenge. Eddard went to war for his brother and father. Not called revenge. Lady Stoneheart is just as much a leader as Beric was, only now they're focused and gives fairer trials.

[Denam_Pavel]

Oh but they can. Don't forget about all the things that are boiling down at Kings Landing with the Faith Trials against Cersei and Margery. There is a personal war between the queens. And don't forget that Tommen is just a boy and the Marriage had not been consumated, and can therefore be undone. Margery has done that twice, so what's keeping her from doing it thrice?

First we need to see how those events play out to know which way the Tyrells will go.

Currently the Tyrells are set to have grandchildren as Kings, a Tyrell Queen whose got the current King wrapped around her finger, A Tyrell Hand and a two to one majority on the small council. And while Cersei is almost certainly acquitted, the Regency may not be restored to her.

No matter how bad things get there is no way that they'll have anywhere near as much power under Aegon. He's an older, more headstrong king, a Stormlord will be his Hand (he's dying but they don't know that) and will want to keep his hand in marriage open for Dany and her dragons.

[The Sea Snake]

I see many different valid opinions being posted, great.

First of all, this was a just one possible scenario, not an absolute prediction. And I dont think that you can overule a theory by using another theory, because only George has the power, and it all comes down to him sitting down and proving us all wrong with his pen.

For my theory to happen, we need to separate events; first of all, Davos has to recover Rickon and seat him at Winterfell. Second, we need Danny renouncing on her quest to claim the IT. Whether this will end up happening or not, I've no idea. But I pretty much think things would play out this way if they did.

I don't even think Stannis will end up sitting the IT. My bet is that he will end up LC of the NW in the end. But, at least when we start tWoW, he is a serious contender fighting in the North, and if his gambit plays (Rickon) he will be empowered.

Then again we have Danny deciding she does want to take the Iron Throne. Well then, the whole game changes, and scrap much of this. Someone said that Aegon would eventually want to marry Danny. What? no way. This are Targaryens we are talking about, and GRRM pulling the strings! It is bound to end in a bloodbath. Besides Danny would never reckongnize a Blackfyre (if indeed he turns out to be fake) or any other impostor. And why would Eg wanna marry Danny anyways? people seem to forget that she is BARREN. Which king pretending his line to rule would take a barren queen? So yeah, if danny comes, it is a Dance for sure.

Then we have this.

Vale and Riverlands including the remnants of Robb’s army (several thousand of them) are bound to Dany.

Says who? where do you base that claim? We are talking about the daughter of the man who killed Ned's daddy and brother. The sister of the man who stole Robbert's bethroded. No, I don't see the Blackfish or Arryn supporters siding with a Targaryen to fight Rickon Stark and Stannis Baratheon, Robbert's brother. The Targaryens were pushed out for a reason, and the only place they still have somesort of support is Dorne. The rest wont be easy to pledge.

And finally, we have the thing about Fake Aegon vs Real Aegon. I know I was rather lax when I said that Connington could not have been fooled. Maybe he was. But the important thing is that he believes Eg to be real. So do all his friends and followers. So does HIMSELF for all we know!

Most likely the only ones who know the truth if he is a fake are Varys and Illyrio. Jee, we as readers might not ever know the final truth unless we see a Varys or Illyrio POV in a prologue/epilogue in the remaining books.

My point is, who cares if he is real or not? The old Lords and Commoners are going to see him, his resemblance with his alleged father, how worthy of a leader he is, and THAT IS THAT. What are they going to do? get a blood sample and make a DNA test?

So in the end I dont think that it is of much relevance whether he is the real deal or a phonny, since once he makes his claim it is going to be very hard to prove it a lie. Just look at Cersei's children and what Stannis letters accomplished.

But I do admit that a second Dance is a very likely possibility, I'll read your post @FireEater!

[King Aegon The Conqueror]

I've read many people on this forum saying GRRM has confirmed Dany will be arriving in Westeros. I believe her time in Essos was hardening her up and preparing her for leadership for when She arrives in Westeros

[The Sea Snake]

I've read many people on this forum saying GRRM has confirmed Dany will be arriving in Westeros. I believe her time in Essos was hardening her up and preparing her for leadership for when She arrives in Westeros

yes he has. He once said "all the important characters were at Winterfell at the beginning, except Danny".. implying that they would meet again.

But I think Danny comming to Westeros could be related to fighting the Others, and not necesarily fighting for the IT

[John Hulboy]

Lots of good thoughts from everyone.i don't know how we will see a dance of dragons 2.0 with Danearys is only one with dragons and they are young an uncontrollable..when dany hears about her nephew on the wall fighting the others I think she will head for Eastwatch.,,

[LordStoneheart]

yes he has. He once said "all the important characters were at Winterfell at the beginning, except Danny".. implying that they would meet again.

But I think Danny comming to Westeros could be related to fighting the Others, and not necesarily fighting for the IT

In another interview he said that the book "a dance with dragons" would be dealing with Daenerys' arrival in Westeros. He also implied there will be two wars called the Dance of the Dragons. Dany is getting to Westeros, and it will be for the Iron Throne.

[The Sea Snake]

In another interview he said that the book "a dance with dragons" would be dealing with Daenerys' arrival in Westeros. He also implied there will be two wars called the Dance of the Dragons. Dany is getting to Westeros, and it will be for the Iron Throne.

did not see that interview. is it out there somewhere to watch? can you find it? I'd love to see it!