Doran's original plan

[Sator Arepo]

I've been trying to understand how Doran Martell expected his original plan to work, that is, marrying Arianne to Viserys and making them queen and king of Westeros.

At the time of the pact, Viserys was a child and Daenerys a toddler. I doubt that there already was a plan to marry Dany to a Dothraki lord by then. And even if there were, what would it mean? An army of savages, not suited to siege warfare, allied with the modest Dornish army against the Iron Throne. IF the Dothraki were persuaded to cross the Narrow Sea.

At the other hand, Robert had just been crowned king and the seven kingdoms were united and strong. Well, being a patient and cautions man, Doran would wait for the right moment. But what could guarantee that a right moment would ever come?

Maybe Doran expected a moment of instability in Westeros to gather more allies against the Iron Throne. Given that Robert was a bad king, it is reasonable. However, as far as I remember, until his death 17 years after his crowning, there was no large scale discontentment towards him. The Starks, Tullys and Arryns, all friends to Robert, would never join Doran. The Tyrells are very unlikely. The Lannisters... well, that would be fun, but no.

In the end, it doesn't make sense. Or is there some crackpot theory out there I don't know about stating that Doran knew about Varys and Illyrio's plan all along? :idea:

[Bright Blue Eyes]

In my opinion, it was simply a way to shut up Oberyn and postpone the revenge against the Lannisters indefinitely.

[Amoracchius]

I think that the War of the Five Kings proved just how tenuous the peace was under Robert. Westeros was held together through his personal relations with the rulers of the North, the Vale, the Stormlands, and the Westerlands. Once cracks started to form in that coalition, everything fell apart, so from a certain perspective, Doran was actually quite observant, if overly patient.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Many things do not fit about the "Braavos Pact." This is how Dany describes it:

"It is a secret pact, Dany said, "made in Braavos when I was just a little girl. Ser Willem Darry signed for us...Prince Oberyn signed for Dorne, with the Sealord of Braavos as witness." (Daenerys VII, ADwD)

1) Viserys and Dany probably didn't grow up in Braavos. (No lemon trees)

2) Willem Darry has no authority to arrange a marriage pact.

3) Doran did not sign for his daughter. Instead, Oberyn does.

4) Doran did zero to help VIserys

Now, according to Dany "If my brother Viserys has known that he had Dornish princes waiting for him, he would have crossed to Sunspear as soon as he was old enough to wed."

And Quentyn replies "And brought Robert's warhammer down upon himself, and Dorne as well." said Frog "My father was content to wait for the day that Prince Viserys found his army." (Daenerys VII, ADwD)

So, Quentyn and Dany are in agreement. Viserys didn't know about the pact and Dorne didn't want Viserys to know about the pact.

Now, if we think about this pact as its presented, we can see that Viserys actually gets nothing from it. After all, in the event he gets an army, he doesn't really need Dorne. He has an army. In the event he doesn't get an army, Dorne can stay quiet. For Viserys, he takes all the risk and does all the work and gets nothing it return. Frankly, there is no reason for him to sign.

From Dorne's perspective, it's win-win. If Viserys gets an army, they can claim they were loyal the whole time. If he doesn't get an army, they can stay quiet. Even if Robert found out about it, Doran could claim it was old and stale. He could say it was made back when Oberyn tried to raise Dorne for Viserys. Plus, it's not binding since its done by Willem Darry.

But, even saying the pact is "win-win" for Dorne is over-stating its importance. This is Dany's reaction to it:

"It would please me if he turned up with these fifty thousand swords he speaks of. Instead he brings two knights and a parchment. Will a parchment shield my people from the Yunkai?" (Daenerys VII, ADwD)

and Barristan's:

"-was made by two dead men and contained not a word about the queen or you. It promised your sister's hand to the queen's brother, another dead man. It has no force. Until you arrived here, Her Grace was ignorant of its existance. You father keeps his secrets well, Prince Quentyn. Too well, I fear." (Daenerys VII, ADwD)

Now, for fun, let's imagine for a second that Viserys was successful in his quest for an army. Viserys convinces the Dothraki to go to war and finds some ships. He arrives in Westeros with his 50,000 Dothraki screamers and conquers King's Landing.

And say Doran comes to Viserys with his little marriage pact and offers Arianne. Would Viserys' reaction to the pact be any better than Dany or Barristan's?

I'm guessing he would laugh at it and marry Margaery to secure the Reach.

In practice, the Braavos pact is pointless. I think Doran made it to fool his own family - Oberyn, Quentyn and Arianne.

[Sator Arepo]

In my opinion, it was simply a way to shut up Oberyn and postpone the revenge against the Lannisters indefinitely.

I don't think so. Doran also wanted revenge and avoided marrying Arianne to perfectly good suitors. She is already in her early twenties in AGOT, which means he was willing to wait a good while instead of securing a marriage with some Westorosi lord.

I think that the War of the Five Kings proved just how tenuous the peace was under Robert. Westeros was held together through his personal relations with the rulers of the North, the Vale, the Stormlands, and the Westerlands. Once cracks started to form in that coalition, everything fell apart, so from a certain perspective, Doran was actually quite observant, if overly patient.

The WOTFK only happened because Cersei's children were illegitimate. Even then, it doesn't look like a favorable scenario for Doran to move. Aegon will obviously change things, but his arrival couldn't be foreseen (unless Doran is part of the Varys/Illyrio conspiracy).

@Skinchanging SweetRobin: This is more or less what I mean. I don't see a problem with Oberyn and Willem Dary signing the pact, but the whole story is inconsistent.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I don't think so. Doran also wanted revenge and avoided marrying Arianne to perfectly good suitors. She is already in her early twenties in AGOT, which means he was willing to wait a good while instead of securing a marriage with some Westorosi lord.

Certainly. Maybe Doran liked to fool himself as well. Procastination is such a tempting thing...

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

@Skinchanging SweetRobin: This is more or less what I mean. I don't see a problem with Oberyn and Willem Dary signing the pact, but the whole story is inconsistent.

It's just that Willem Dary is not a lord and only lords can arrange marriages.

"Your father is a castellan, not a lord. And a castellan has no right to make marriage pacts." (Jon X, ADwD)

When it comes down to it, "the Braavos Pact" is a worthless piece of toilet paper.

My guess is that while Viserys was alive, it served as an insurance plan in case he got an army. Later, it was used to trick Quentyn's gang to go to Dany for some reason. I think Doran was trying to entangle the Yronwoods in Dany's cause while the Martells went to Aegon's cause.

[Colonel Green]

It's just that Willem Dary is not a lord and only lords can arrange marriages.

"Your father is a castellan, not a lord. And a castellan has no right to make marriage pacts." (Jon X, ADwD)

Arnolf had no right to make marriage pacts on behalf of Alys, because he wasn't her legal guardian; her brother was the lord, and thus the head of the family.

Willem Darry was Dany's effective guardian, so it's not surprising that he would be making arrangements with respect to the possible restoration of House Targaryen. Whether this would be a "legally binding agreement" if brought into whatever Westeros' version of a court was, is kind of irrelevant. It was a political matter meant to be beneficial to both sides.

3) Doran did not sign for his daughter. Instead, Oberyn does.

So what? Oberyn was Doran's agent, and signed on his behalf.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Arnolf had no right to make marriage pacts on behalf of Alys, because he wasn't her legal guardian; her brother was the lord, and thus the head of the family.

Willem Darry was Dany's effective guardian, so it's not surprising that he would be making arrangements with respect to the possible restoration of House Targaryen. Whether this would be a "legally binding agreement" if brought into whatever Westeros' version of a court was, is kind of irrelevant. It was a political matter meant to be beneficial to both sides.

So what? Oberyn was Doran's agent, and signed on his behalf.

There is a logic to what you're saying, but that's not what the text says. The text says Arnolf cannot make the marriage pact because he is not a lord.

Guardianship or effective guardianship is never mentioned in the text, but I would argue that that is probably irrelevant. We see a number of forced marriages carried out by lords in the story with few questions about their legal legitimacy: Sansa's marriage to Tyrion being the primary example, but also Ramsay's marriages.

Keep in mind, this is feudalism here. Marriages are largely contracts of real estate. So, Willem Dary's role as a non-lord is a bit weird. A master-at-arms is negotiating a marriage between a king and a princess?

Now, on Oberyn. Yes, Oberyn can easily act as Doran's agent, but what is the purpose of that? If Doran were ernest in the pact, he would sign it himself. Using Oberyn allows Doran for plausible deniability. Although, I suppose one could argue that Doran feared being seen leaving Dorne.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Oberyn signed a pact with witnesses, I doubt Doran was simply making time. He actually planned to do what he said he would, that's why Arianne remained single.

Doran wanted Dorne to support Viserys, I'm sure quite in Dorne were still mad for what they did to Elia and her kids. Dorne fought for the Targaryens during the RR, and they didn't only lost the princess but many people from their Houses. I'm sure that with the proper words, Doran could have convinced him to support him and some other Targaryen loyalists.

[Colonel Green]

There is a logic to what you're saying, but that's not what the text says. The text says Arnolf cannot make the marriage pact because he is not a lord.

Jon's dialogue is casual, not legalistic.

Guardianship or effective guardianship is never mentioned in the text, but I would argue that that is probably irrelevant. We see a number of forced marriages carried out by lords in the story with few questions about their legal legitimacy: Sansa's marriage to Tyrion being the primary example, but also Ramsay's marriages.

In Sansa's case, it shows the exact opposite. She is identified as a ward of the Crown, and thus it is the king's authority to make a marriage for her, since her father and brother (to whom that responsibility would otherwise fall) are traitors. Regarding Ramsay's marriages, Lady Hornwood was an adult widow; she had no guardian. For "Arya", the situation was the same as Sansa.

Now, on Oberyn. Yes, Oberyn can easily act as Doran's agent, but what is the purpose of that?

I would imagine because it's much easier for Oberyn to sneak into a meeting with Willem Darry in Braavos than it is for Doran to do that.

[Lyanna_Lou]

I assume that Oberyn went to sign the contract in Braavos because Doran couldn't travel due to his gout. (Or at least that's a good excuse for him to use; certainly his gout wasn't as advanced then as it is now, but he still would have been in pain from it.)

But Ser Willem's authority to sign is questionable as is the whole pact in general. There's another thread going on somewhere questioning the point of ANY of Doran's plans, not just this one, which I found really interesting. Either there are subtleties that we just can't understand because we don't have all the info, or Doran really sucks at planning.

[Colonel Green]

Debating "authority to sign" is kind of beside the point. Marriage pacts aren't enforceable in court or whatever, otherwise Walder Frey could have made Robb honour his original agreement. In the original plan where Willem Darry lives and remains Viserys' trusted father figure/adviser going forward, no doubt it was expected that it would simply be politically sensible to go through with it. Marriage pacts at this level are alliances, and there was every reason to believe that Viserys would want Dorne's support.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

Debating "authority to sign" is kind of beside the point. Marriage pacts aren't enforceable in court or whatever, otherwise Walder Frey could have made Robb honour his original agreement. In the original plan where Willem Darry lives and remains Viserys' trusted father figure/adviser going forward, no doubt it was expected that it would simply be politically sensible to go through with it. Marriage pacts at this level are alliances, and there was every reason to believe that Viserys would want Dorne's support.

But a secret pact where only one side knows about it would benefit only that side.

The Robb-Frey marriage is a perfect example.

Robb agrees to marry a Frey girl for the soldiers. What's the deterrent in either side breaking it? The threat of violence. And that's exactly what happens. The Starks violate it and the Frey retaliate.

Now, look at the Viserys-Arianne pact. Doran can break the pact at any time and suffer no consequences. Viserys, on the other hand, if ever presented with it, would have to deal with an angry Dorne.

It's completely and utterly unfair for Viserys. He gets nothing from Dorne, but has to marry Arianne if he happens to be successful.

The whole thing makes me think that Oberyn met with Willem Darry, signed the pact and then poisoned him.....which explains better than anything else why Oberyn was there instead of Doran.

[Sator Arepo]

Now, look at the Viserys-Arianne pact. Doran can break the pact at any time and suffer no consequences. Viserys, on the other hand, if ever presented with it, would have to deal with an angry Dorne.

It's completely and utterly unfair for Viserys. He gets nothing from Dorne, but has to marry Arianne if he happens to be successful.

Agreed. This was smart from Doran.

The whole thing makes me think that Oberyn met with Willem Darry, signed the pact and then poisoned him.....which explains better than anything else why Oberyn was there instead of Doran.

I don't think he'd be so treacherous. Oberyn has some moral sense. And as I mentioned, Doran seems to really want to fulfill the pact, as he refused to marry his daughter to other suitors for 17 years.

[avernite]

I think the point of the plan was obvious: Doran locked in his position with the Targaryen's at a fairly minor cost (at the time of its proposal, the pact might have ended for reasons of Viserys' death, and it was secret anyway), while Darry locked in Dorne on the Targaryen side rather than risking it embracing the new rulers. We are talking of the Beggar King here - Viserys had no cards to ask for more than he got, which is support for marriage. Darry probably intended to tell him when Viserys got of age, or when an opportunity arose.

None arose in years, but Doran continued his very minor investment by not letting Arianne marry, and the pact could always be used - until Viserys died and Dany got to be queen in her own right. At that point, as predicted, she refused to honour a pact that was not in her favour and basically secret.

As to what Doran planned: I think he didn't trust the Baratheons to hold on so long. The rebellion was a close run thing, with Tyrells on the Targaryen side and the Lannisters being full-blown opportunists only. A few missteps, and he probably imagined someone would want the old rulers back. This never happened, so he had to wait until Viserys found an army... that is, until the war of the five kings, at which point he DID make his move. Of course, the illegitimacy of Joffrey was so critical to the whole thing that he was darn lucky to get any chance at all... so I won't call him a great plotter for planning this.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

I don't think he'd be so treacherous. Oberyn has some moral sense. And as I mentioned, Doran seems to really want to fulfill the pact, as he refused to marry his daughter to other suitors for 17 years.

I dunno, I think Oberyn and Doran are complete and utter sociopaths.

Keep in mind, there was another reason to keep Arianne single: Aegon.

Poisoning Darry just plays into Doran's hand so well. They get the one-sided Braavos Pact. Good for Dorne, bad for Viserys.

This is what I think happened:

1) Oberyn tries to raise Dorne for Viserys.

2) Jon Arynn comes down to Dorne and is like "dude, what are you doing? Robert is going to kill you! We don't want war!"

3) Oberyn tells Jon Arryn "fine, I'll kill Willem Darry and orphan Viserys and Dany."

4) Oberyn tells Willem Darry "hey, bro, let's do a marriage pact!" They do the pact.

5) Overyn poisons Willem Darry and the kids go on the run.

But, I can't explain the Lemon Trees. Were they actually in Dorne the whole time? Then its:

1) Oberyn tries to raise Dorne for Viserys since Viserys is actually in Dorne.

2) Jon Arynn comes down to Dorne and sees the children and is like "dude?!?!?! You have the Targaryen children?!?! Robert is going to kill you! We don't want war!"

3) Oberyn tells Jon Arryn, "fine, I'll send them across the Narrow Sea."

4) Jon Arryn says "totally, not good enough! Look, I don't want to kill kids, but they need no support from you or anyone!"

5) Oberyn tells Jon Arynn "fine, I'll take them across the Narrow Sea and then kill Willem Darry."

6) Oberyn tells Willem Darry, "hey, bro, you can't stay here any more. But don't worry, we'll set you up in Braavos and we'll have a marriage pact."

7) They go to Braavos and do the pact.

8) Overyn poisons Willem Darry and the kids go on the run.

But, there is one thing that I can't explain:

Why would Viserys lie about growing up in Braavos?