Will the rest of Westeros ever realize how much they owe Stannis Baratheon?

[Mithras]

Well you're right, we don't know if the Boltons would've marched on the Wall, or if the Redwyne fleet would attempt to sail North, but its not a risk that can be taken either, Stannis' best bet on ensuring the Wall is defended is by ensuring there is no chance that another enemy can take it from its weakest position. I would think that is fair enough, though its clear he still believes that uniting Westeros is essential, another POV I wouldn't disagree with since it puts the resources of the entire realm at his disposal and not the measly army he has now.

As to the rest, I can't really argue, since it is entirely possible that Stannis may only have delayed the inevitible, and the White Walker threat is horrific, but the Wildlings at their worst are a different kind of evil that Stannis did protect Westerosi from. I think as people I think Stannis and Mance are the two, who are not a part of the Nights Watch at least, that appreciate the real threat and are making moves to stop it, but I think the Wildlings are the architects of their own downfall in many ways, their open no holds barred hostilities to the South ensured the South could only respond in kind. And since being an architect of your own downfall is a common theme in this series, it just shows that its not limited to South of the Wall.

Obviously I cant answer most of these, and if you're implying that there was a bigger scheme between the Northerners and the Wildlings you can consider me interested in hearing more, though the required obliteration of the Nights Watch would still be a factor.

1. I don't know, all I know is that it doesn't reflect particularly well on them at this point in time.

3. I am pretty sure Crowfood isn't aware of Mance and if he was he would think he was Abel anyway, actually I think the most interesting point about this is that Crowfood required Mance dead, but I am fairly certain Stannis was in the whole glamour deal, which is what could turn the North against him more so than anything else.

Yes, that is my feeling. I am not the first one though. I read similar theories from other posters.

There are also other points I forgot to mention in the previous post. The spearwives Abel brought are suspicious. It is highly probable that they are the stolen daughters or their daughters from the Northern people. For example, I think Rowan is the daughter of Crowfood. Apart from being long and old, she used the phrase "Lord Eddard" with a deep respect to the Starks, which are typical of Umbers.

Another thing, the 100k host of Mance included at most 1k fighters and a united force in the North could have crushed them as easily as Stannis. Mance is not stupid enough to work decades only to lead his people to a better death compared to the Others. So, it makes sense if he has come to a certain agreement with the Northmen living in close proximity, namely the Umbers and the mountain clans.

I agree that they probably thought of eradicating the likes of Bowen from the NW but I think they agreed to man the Wall with thousands of people instead.

[paramount]

Probably not

[Stormland's Fury]

They weren't defeated by Ned, they surrendered to him because the rebels essentially won the war already.

[Señor de la Tormenta]

I am not that certain we can claim this. I am not sure that Stannis indeed delayed Others' invasion. If the wildlings have destroyed NW, I am not sure how that would impact the Others' plans of invasion. Simply, we don't know that they have stopped or delayed invasion because of Stannis. I am all for credits when deserved, and Stannis does deserve praise for many things, but I doubt that delay in Others' invasion is one of them.

He was the one who decided to start the wilding refugee program, cutting the pool for the whight army.

[Palladinho]

He was the one who decided to start the wilding refugee program, cutting the pool for the whight army.

Good point; the Others do 'recruit' dead humans for their armies.

[Mithras]

He was the one who decided to start the wilding refugee program, cutting the pool for the whight army.

Good point; the Others do 'recruit' dead humans for their armies.

“The gods are here,” one of the old men said. “This was as good a place to die as any.”

“The Wall is only a few hours south of here,” said Jon. “Why not seek shelter there? Others yielded. Even Mance.”

The wildlings exchanged looks. Finally one said, “We heard stories. The crows burned all them that yielded.”

“Even Mance hisself,” the woman added.

Melisandre, Jon thought, you and your red god have much and more to answer for.

So far his program is a complete failure. Thanks to the farce Mel played at the burning of "Mance", the wildlings now believe that all those yield will get burned. And worse, the wildlings think that it is the crows (the NW) that burn the free folk not the red witch nor the king. This also puts the lives of any rangers north of the Wall into unnecessary danger.

[James Arryn]

No one respects the Stannis Inquisition!

[Baelor Swyft]

The Knights Watch owes Stannis a debt that they repaid when Jon sent Stannis against Deep Motte.

The realm doesn't owe stannis nothing. He delayed the wall from coming down for a bit longer.

That doesn't mean that they owe him anything.

It's Jon that makes a better peace with the wildlings than Stannis. He at least let them keep their gods and dignity by not making them kneel. Under Jon the wildlings were tying to work together with the watch against the common foe.

Stannis pranced his ass off from the wall to free Winterfell. The northern lords have that well in hand. If your the freer of the known world and that fate rests on your shoulders it's kind of reckless to go running off to Winterfell where you could die.

Mel said it best these squabbles over the throne are meaningless so long as the others are there and coming south!

I endorse this post.

Mance wanted peace. Mance wanted cooperation. Obviously there's zero chance they would bring down The Wall, since putting The Wall between them and The Others was their entire purpose. Jon was in the process of negotiating when Stannis rode in and massacred the Wildlings.

[Señor de la Tormenta]

The gods are here, one of the old men said. This was as good a place to die as any.

The Wall is only a few hours south of here, said Jon. Why not seek shelter there? Others yielded. Even Mance.

The wildlings exchanged looks. Finally one said, We heard stories. The crows burned all them that yielded.

Even Mance hisself, the woman added.

Melisandre, Jon thought, you and your red god have much and more to answer for.

So far his program is a complete failure. Thanks to the farce Mel played at the burning of "Mance", the wildlings now believe that all those yield will get burned. And worse, the wildlings think that it is the crows (the NW) that burn the free folk not the red witch nor the king. This also puts the lives of any rangers north of the Wall into unnecessary danger.

Mel burnt one single wilding, while the watch wanted to hang or behead half of them and leave the rest in their side of the wall.

I really dont get your point. With all the ones that got in with Mance, and the second group of Tormund, thousends of wildings are now in the right side and unable to become zombies. Thats a fact, and it was Stannis call.

Of course Jon diserves credit to.

[LordCouture]

Jon wasn't in the process of negociating, he was in the process of getting kill. Even if Mance and him agreed to a deal, it was pointless since Jon wasn't leading the NW and there was NO WAY that the actual NW leaders (Slynt and Thorne) would have accepted any deal with Mance. Thus Jon only had two choice that would both lead to his death: To kill Mance while "negociating" and then getting killed by the wildlings OR to go back to CB and then getting executed by the NW because he didn't kill Mance.

With Slynt and Thorne in charge of the NW, the war between the wildlings and the NW was surely going to continue, leading to the destruction of the NW and to the free folks getting South of the Wall. We don't know what was Mance's plan after that, but I doubt he wanted to stay at the Wall and protect it against the Others. You have to remember that Mance himself went to Winterfell to scout it. What is the purpose of scouting Winterfell (and probably some other northen castles) if he planned to stay at the Wall?

[Stormland's Fury]

So far his program is a complete failure. Thanks to the farce Mel played at the burning of "Mance", the wildlings now believe that all those yield will get burned. And worse, the wildlings think that it is the crows (the NW) that burn the free folk not the red witch nor the king. This also puts the lives of any rangers north of the Wall into unnecessary danger.

He wanted to man the Wall. He did man the Wall.

Unless their word does really mean anything, the Wildlings' superstition is the best what happened to the NW and Stannis' men as they're not that inclined to just bolt and go further south. What rangers are still left? And even then they're in danger no matter what if they're north of the Wall.

Also it's not like the Wildlings that fled are still one united army or anything, they basically disappeared and spread into the woods.

[Señor de la Tormenta]

Yes, that is my feeling. I am not the first one though. I read similar theories from other posters.

There are also other points I forgot to mention in the previous post. The spearwives Abel brought are suspicious. It is highly probable that they are the stolen daughters or their daughters from the Northern people. For example, I think Rowan is the daughter of Crowfood. Apart from being long and old, she used the phrase "Lord Eddard" with a deep respect to the Starks, which are typical of Umbers.

Another thing, the 100k host of Mance included at most 1k fighters and a united force in the North could have crushed them as easily as Stannis. Mance is not stupid enough to work decades only to lead his people to a better death compared to the Others. So, it makes sense if he has come to a certain agreement with the Northmen living in close proximity, namely the Umbers and the mountain clans.

I agree that they probably thought of eradicating the likes of Bowen from the NW but I think they agreed to man the Wall with thousands of people instead.

1k warriors in Mace Army? I wont argue since I think its a typo. Normal guesses are between 10k and 20k.

Im not so sure northeners would had defeated the wildings so easily anyway. After all, we know only about three specific battles between wildings and westerosi.

The first one is Long Lake, where an army of wildings without giants and mamouths climbed the wall and were stopped by Starks and Umbers. A tought battle since Lord Stark was killed and his brother was later remembered as the "Implacable". A smaller wilding army, a bigger westerosi army. With far more loses than Stannis.

Second one is Bridge of Skulls where the Watch lost 100 men in a battle of fair numbers against 300 wildings.

Under this view is not so easy to take down wildings, and Stannis flawless victory can be aprecieted as it should be.

[Stormland's Fury]

Mance wanted peace. Mance wanted cooperation. Obviously there's zero chance they would bring down The Wall, since putting The Wall between them and The Others was their entire purpose. Jon was in the process of negotiating when Stannis rode in and massacred the Wildlings.

They were breaching through the gate and Jon was there because he couldn't hold the Wall in the first place. Stannis coming in is still the better option for him, no matter what.

[Baelor Swyft]

Jon wasn't in the process of negociating, he was in the process of getting kill. Even if Mance and him agreed to a deal, it was pointless since Jon wasn't leading the NW and there was NO WAY that the actual NW leaders (Slynt and Thorne) would have accepted any deal with Mance. Thus Jon only had two choice that would both lead to his death: To kill Mance while "negociating" and then getting killed by the wildlings OR to go back to CB and then getting executed by the NW because he didn't kill Mance.

With Slynt and Thorne in charge of the NW, the war between the wildlings and the NW was surely going to continue, leading to the destruction of the NW and to the free folks getting South of the Wall. We don't know what was Mance's plan after that, but I doubt he wanted to stay at the Wall and protect it against the Others. You have to remember that Mance himself went to Winterfell to scout it. What is the purpose of scouting Winterfell (and probably some other northen castles) if he planned to stay at the Wall?

Considering what The Night's Watch did to Jon in the timeline as we know it..... am I worried about what Mance's army might have done in the south? No, not particularly. Perhaps they would have made better work of it than The Watch did. Mance is an intelligent and reasonable man who has his people's interests at heart. He was also a man of the Night's Watch once himself. What would have probably happened is the reverse of what Jon did, Mance's army would be in control, but they would allow the Watch to live in relative peace.

If Stannis's army, already heartily depleted on the Blackwater, was able to make mincemeat out of Mance's army like it was warm butter... the southron armies would have an even easier time of the matter. And Mance is far too smart not to know this. So while he may start some sort of war of conquest hypothetically, I don't think there's much he was capable of doing other than taking over The Watch. What they seemed to want is to flee from the Others, perhaps they would have ultimately set sail for Essos or Southyros.

[Batbob45]

He would be forgotten If he beat the others and then died. I want him to become King. Their is a way to make his daughter popular, what if when he become king, he legitmize Edric Storm because the smallfolks love Edric's dad and then marry Edric to Shireen (he was Shireen most normal friend, the second to most normal is Wun Weg, that says a lot about how crazy is Patchface). Edric Storm seems like a more rational person than Robert.

[Bronn Urgandy]

I endorse this post.

Mance wanted peace. Mance wanted cooperation. Obviously there's zero chance they would bring down The Wall, since putting The Wall between them and The Others was their entire purpose. Jon was in the process of negotiating when Stannis rode in and massacred the Wildlings.

Whaat? Mance expressly told Jon that the people South of the Wall could basically go bugger themselves, his demands were "we're going to encroach on your land, carry on being the way we are and you're going like or we'll kill you." Thats why he was attacking the Wall in full force instead of trying to make terms.

Mance isn't too bad himself, but what about the Weeper, or Rattleshirt, or Harma? Sure, an assembled army would finish the Wildlings eventually, but they're still gonna hurt, rape, loot, kill and pillage all the way down until they're stopped.

[Stormland's Fury]

Sure, an assembled army would finish the Wildlings eventually, but they're still gonna hurt, rape, loot, kill and pillage all the way down until they're stopped.

If they even stay together. Mance might unify them to get past the Wall, but not sure if they don't just split once they're south. Takes a lot of time and resources to chase Wildling groups that pillage and rape all over the place. There's no way to pin point them, thus stopping the whole threat in a decisive battle.

[LordCouture]

Considering what The Night's Watch did to Jon in the timeline as we know it..... am I worried about what Mance's army might have done in the south? No, not particularly. Perhaps they would have made better work of it than The Watch did. Mance is an intelligent and reasonable man who has his people's interests at heart. He was also a man of the Night's Watch once himself. What would have probably happened is the reverse of what Jon did, Mance's army would be in control, but they would allow the Watch to live in relative peace.

If Stannis's army, already heartily depleted on the Blackwater, was able to make mincemeat out of Mance's army like it was warm butter... the southron armies would have an even easier time of the matter. And Mance is far too smart not to know this. So while he may start some sort of war of conquest hypothetically, I don't think there's much he was capable of doing other than taking over The Watch. What they seemed to want is to flee from the Others, perhaps they would have ultimately set sail for Essos or Southyros.

None of this answers the question: If Mance's plan is to stay at the Wall and defend it against the Others, why is he wasting time scouting castles in the North?

Yes, Mance is smart... that is why he knows that every Northen Lords hate him and that none of them would have accepted to see the Wall manned by Mance Rayder and his wildling friends. He only had one chance at sruvival: Take them out. It is desperate, but the free folks are in a desperate situation and it was their only chance at survival. The North was in full chaos mode (Starks were just killed, Bolton just took over as Warden of the North, the Ironborn were still in the North, ...) so it was the best time for the free folk to attack the North. And Mance does think his army is big enough to strike the North, he boasted about how great his army was when he was "negociating" with Jon:

Mance ran a hand along the curve of the great horn. “No man goes hunting with only one arrow in his quiver,” he said. “I had hoped that Styr and Jarl would take your brothers unawares, and open the gate for us. I drew your garrison away with feints and raids and secondary attacks. Bowen Marsh swallowed that lure as I knew he would, but your band of cripples and orphans proved to be more stubborn than anticipated. Don’t think you’ve stopped us, though. The truth is, you are too few and we are too many. I could continue the attack here and still send ten thousand men to cross the Bay of Seals on rafts and take Eastwatch from the rear. I could storm the Shadow Tower too, I know the approaches as well as any man alive. I could send men and mammoths to dig out the gates at the castles you’ve abandoned, all of them at once.”

That doesn't sound like a man who's afraid to invade North. Stannis won against Mance because of a brillantly organized surprise attack, not because he had a superior army. The wildlings once killed the Lord of Winterfell, they're not exactly a bunch of scrubs, they can fight.

As others have mentionned, Mance also had some terrible people with him, such as Rattleshirt and the Weeper.

[Nittanian]

Well overlooking the fact that show has repeatedly used this stat of 100,000, Jon and the NW scouts repeat in ASOS how unendingly long and how impossible it is to count Mance's column, so its basically, an awful lot more than have passed through the wall under Stannis' and Jon's authority. It seems unknown in the book-universe. Smallwood speculated 20K- 30K- he said he didn't stay to count- implying he got as far as an awful lot before riding off again, so he had not seen the entirety of the column.

When Jon and Satin are observing the horde from atop the Wall in ASOS, Satin wails, "There must be a hundred thousand. How can we stop so many?"

Bowen Marsh says in ADWD, "Whether we face a hundred foes or a hundred thousand, so long as we're atop the Wall and they're below, they cannot do us harm."

These aren't necessarily accurate figures (GRRM has said "Even in real life, estimating the size of medieval armies was always tricky"), but they indicate Mance's host to be enormous.