Stannis endgame if victorious at Blackwater?

[The Frosted King]

He's lost a major portion of his army taking the city, but he's grabbed Cersei, Joffrey, Tyrion and the Rosby's dumped Tommen in hopes of gaining favor.

He kills all of them, Joffrey and his mother and uncle by sword, and Tommen by a sweet sleep overdose after a feast.

What now?

[The Bittersteel]

He's lost a major portion of his army taking the city, but he's grabbed Cersei, Joffrey, Tyrion and the Rosby's dumped Tommen in hopes of gaining favor.

He kills all of them, Joffrey and his mother and uncle by sword, and Tommen by a sweet sleep overdose after a feast.

What now?

First off not kill Tyrion, Cersei, Joffrey and Tommen but keep them as hostages for Tywin's good behaviour. Nothing would stop him simply sieging the city otherwise. If Stannis has lost most of his army.

[Talleyrand]

Spend the rest of his life either dealing with religious rebellion or making sure that Mel and her faction of fanatics don't get too much power

[Mad Monkey]

Killing all of his hostages would be hilariously irresponsible even for Stannis after the Blackwater. He will need to assure the allegiance of the Westerlands so that he can go forward and pacify the North, the Riverlands, and the Iron Islands next without having to worry that he will be stabbed in the back.

[Dornish Whine]

Politically Stannis would have several decisions to make in short order. First, he would be faced with the Lannister/Tyrell forces at his gates. As others have stated he would force Tywin to bend the knee through the use of valuable hostages. It is possible, since he would hold Sansa, that she could be used to bring the Starks back into the fold as well. Then he would probably make a offer of Shireen's hand to Wilas Tyrell in the hopes of securing their allegiance. In theory this should succeed, since a similar arrangement was used by Tywin for the same purpose. Let's assume that the offer is not rejected due to Shireen's illness. Perhaps the crippled Wilas and the scarred Shireen would be a good match. At this point Stannis would have only the Greyjoy rebellion to deal with. It seems clear he would send the Lannister/Tyrell host north to assist the Starks in reclaiming that part of the Kingdom. Not that they would play nice together, but the hostage situation at KL would help them 'get along'.

The question of religion would be another immediate concern. It is interesting that Stannis had left Mel behind at Blackwater. Had he won without her his opinion of R'hollr would have been damaged and he may have ordered Mel back to Asshai on the spot... or possibly tried burning her alive, which may not have worked. But if we assume that he feels he no longer needs her, then its back to worshiping the Seven for him.

If Stannis were in King's Landing then he would not have been there to prevent the wall from being overrun by the Wildlings. Jon Snow would at least be a prisoner of Mance, if not executed by him. The Wildlings would become a major issue in the North and we would see the Stark/Tyrell/Lannister/Tully army caught in a war with the Greyjoy and Wildling armies.

Oh, and he would close all the brothels... which would lead to rebellion within KL and Stannis' eventual assassination.

[shearstone]

He'd execute Joffrey and Tommen if he got his hands on him. I'm pretty sure assuming Sansa survives he said he would give her back to Cat (might have been just the show though) so he won't have any northern hostages. The Vale would likely do nothing and LF would probably run there to plot. Tywin would be forced to bend the knee as his daughter and Tyrion would be Stannis's hostages and Jaime would be a hostage of Robb still. Unless Stannis offers the Tyrell's some form of deal that gets them the power they crave they'd go home and prepare to defend themselves from any retribution from Stannis. Robb would likely want to go home, so he might bend the knee (quite unlikely however) otherwise he will stay at Riverrun and prepare to fight Stannis. We know Stannis isn't above using questionable means so it wouldn't surprise me if he would entertain Roose Boltons ambition to rule the north but I doubt any action would be as extreme as the Red Wedding.

Tywin would probably go home too, with his family hostage he loses a lot of power but I doubt he'd actively aid Stannis against Robb. So it'd be the Stormlands v North/Riverlands. The Reach may aid Stannis in which case Robb would probably bend or flee North to retake it from the Ironborn before he's probably killed off in someway by Roose and or Walder. The Vale may also join Stannis depending on what Littlefinger decides to do. Then the wildlings would take the wall and head south pillaging the north as they go.

It also could go down that LF decides to get Lysa to declare for Robb hoping to somehow get hold of Cat (currently single afterall) in which case the Vale would join with the Riverlord forces to stop Stannis whilst Robb goes North like he planned, where he could offer the help Stannis provides to the Night's Watch.

Overall Stannis wouldn't have it easy plenty of houses could do him serious harm or be a serious benefit depends how it goes, like in the actual books it depends what LF does, whether Varys would hide in the shadows and execute Stannis like he does Kevan and Pycelle and whether Stannis will bend enough to enlist the Tyrell's (as he's married to a Florent I don't see this being likely unfortunately). If Stannis doesn't get any help though and it's the Stormlands v North/Riverlands, Stannis would lose and who knows what would happen next, my guess the kingdoms would split apart like in the old days.

[Lee-Sensei]

He'd execute Joffrey and Tommen if he got his hands on him. I'm pretty sure assuming Sansa survives he said he would give her back to Cat (might have been just the show though) so he won't have any northern hostages. The Vale would likely do nothing and LF would probably run there to plot. Tywin would be forced to bend the knee as his daughter and Tyrion would be Stannis's hostages and Jaime would be a hostage of Robb still. Unless Stannis offers the Tyrell's some form of deal that gets them the power they crave they'd go home and prepare to defend themselves from any retribution from Stannis. Robb would likely want to go home, so he might bend the knee (quite unlikely however) otherwise he will stay at Riverrun and prepare to fight Stannis. We know Stannis isn't above using questionable means so it wouldn't surprise me if he would entertain Roose Boltons ambition to rule the north but I doubt any action would be as extreme as the Red Wedding.

Tywin would probably go home too, with his family hostage he loses a lot of power but I doubt he'd actively aid Stannis against Robb. So it'd be the Stormlands v North/Riverlands. The Reach may aid Stannis in which case Robb would probably bend or flee North to retake it from the Ironborn before he's probably killed off in someway by Roose and or Walder. The Vale may also join Stannis depending on what Littlefinger decides to do. Then the wildlings would take the wall and head south pillaging the north as they go.

It also could go down that LF decides to get Lysa to declare for Robb hoping to somehow get hold of Cat (currently single afterall) in which case the Vale would join with the Riverlord forces to stop Stannis whilst Robb goes North like he planned, where he could offer the help Stannis provides to the Night's Watch.

Overall Stannis wouldn't have it easy plenty of houses could do him serious harm or be a serious benefit depends how it goes, like in the actual books it depends what LF does, whether Varys would hide in the shadows and execute Stannis like he does Kevan and Pycelle and whether Stannis will bend enough to enlist the Tyrell's (as he's married to a Florent I don't see this being likely unfortunately). If Stannis doesn't get any help though and it's the Stormlands v North/Riverlands, Stannis would lose and who knows what would happen next, my guess the kingdoms would split apart like in the old days.

Getting the Vale to make Robb their King wouldn't help LF at all as it's likely Cat will call him out on his lies and they'll figure out that his scheming is responsible for the war that tore the country apart.

[Fightbringer]

Depending on how he won, he might think he has a strong enough force to hold off tywin, so if word of tywin's alliance with the tyrells doesnt reach him in time, i can see him burning the lannisters in the city.

Although he probably would find out and then keep them hostage. He now has a huge lannister-tyrell army at is gates, so his options are a bit limited. He is massively outnumbered, he might be able to hold off a direct assault with his remaining force if tywin waited to assault, but it would be unlikely.

Anyway it would be unlikely Stannis reign would last very long though, as if tywin arrived just after he takes the city, then he'd probably decide the best decision is to attack immediately while Stannis hasnt had time to organise his occupation and defence of KL, the gates would still be damaged from the assault, stannis probably wouldnt have taken possession of the red keep at that point anyway, and even if he did, he would have time to communicate with Tywin any potential hostage demands, even if tywin did listen to him. He might be able to capture Tyrion, but its not like Tywin would hold off an attack to save Tyrion

Stannis wasnt defeated on the blackwater, he was defeated when the tyrells made the pact with tywin

[Ramsay Gimp]

First off not kill Tyrion, Cersei, Joffrey and Tommen but keep them as hostages for Tywin's good behaviour. Nothing would stop him simply sieging the city otherwise. If Stannis has lost most of his army.

Killing all of his hostages would be hilariously irresponsible even for Stannis after the Blackwater. He will need to assure the allegiance of the Westerlands so that he can go forward and pacify the North, the Riverlands, and the Iron Islands next without having to worry that he will be stabbed in the back.

There is no question that he would kill every Lannister, except maybe Lancel.

Not only are Cersei's children threats to his claim, but his sense of "justice" would demand that the abominations be destroyed

[Sullen]

Cersei was preparing to have all of the highborn in the Red Keep executed should the city walls fall. That means Stannis doesn't have Cersei or Sansa as hostage. To be honest, he would have still been fucked, having to deal with both the Northmen, the Westermen, the Tyrells, and the Ironborn. All that with an incredibly weakened force.

Stannis simply could not win unless he made another loan to the Iron Bank. (Which in this situation doesn't pass since HE is officially the King and Westeros and therefore HE owes them Robert's debts)

[Fat Mac]

Cersei was preparing to have all of the highborn in the Red Keep executed should the city walls fall. That means Stannis doesn't have Cersei or Sansa as hostage. To be honest, he would have still been fucked, having to deal with both the Northmen, the Westermen, the Tyrells, and the Ironborn. All that with an incredibly weakened force.

Stannis simply could not win unless he made another loan to the Iron Bank. (Which in this situation doesn't pass since HE is officially the King and Westeros and therefore HE owes them Robert's debts)

Not all at once though. The Ironborn were only fighting the North at this time, so they don't really play into things here. And I think Stannis and Robb might fight the Lannisters before going after each other. Stannis obviously wants Robb to bend the knee, but I think he'd be able to see the value in fighting the Lannisters first, even if they do it separately.

When Renly died, we saw how quick some Tyrell bannermen jumped ship. If Stannis takes KL, I'd think we'd see a lot more come to his side just because he has the IT under his control.

[Ingelheim]

Stannis was lucky he lost at the Blackwater. He would have died if he had won there.

[Two and a Halfhand]

Had Stannis won,that would be great for Robb since it would take a great amount of troops and time to take the city back.Tywin would be screwed:Either takes a long siege to take back KL and give time to Robb to pillage the Westerlands or do a full frontal assault and probably lose.Even if he took back he couldnt possibly take on the North,given the condition of his army

[Sullen]

Not all at once though. The Ironborn were only fighting the North at this time, so they don't really play into things here. And I think Stannis and Robb might fight the Lannisters before going after each other. Stannis obviously wants Robb to bend the knee, but I think he'd be able to see the value in fighting the Lannisters first, even if they do it separately.

When Renly died, we saw how quick some Tyrell bannermen jumped ship. If Stannis takes KL, I'd think we'd see a lot more come to his side just because he has the IT under his control.

The Lannisters don't have any more reason to fight the Northmen though, and the Northmen the Lannisters.

Robb can't fight to save Sansa since she croaked when Stannis took King's Landing, he can't fight to avenge his father since Joff is dead anyways. You could argue that he fights to protect the Riverlands, but I'm pretty sure Tywin disengages from Robb and leaves the Riverlands alone. Stannis becomes the main target for everyone, except the Ironborn of course.

The Tyrells jumped ship because the Lannisters offered them exactly what Renly did: a queen. Stannis can't do that, they don't get anything from allying with Stannis.

Stannis was fucked from day one, and as Ingelheim pointed out, losing the Blackwater has saved his life. (For a while)

[Ingelheim]

The Lannisters don't have any more reason to fight the Northmen though, and the Northmen the Lannisters.

Robb can't fight to save Sansa since she croaked when Stannis took King's Landing, he can't fight to avenge his father since Joff is dead anyways. You could argue that he fights to protect the Riverlands, but I'm pretty sure Tywin disengages from Robb and leaves the Riverlands alone. Stannis becomes the main target for everyone, except the Ironborn of course.

The Tyrells jumped ship because the Lannisters offered them exactly what Renly did: a queen. Stannis can't do that, they don't get anything from allying with Stannis.

Stannis was fucked from day one, and as Ingelheim pointed out, losing the Blackwater has saved his life. (For a while)

Although I agree, the Lannisters would have fought against Robb even if Sansa had died at the time. Robb still had Jaime, and wanted to split the Kingdom in half.

[Sullen]

Although I agree, the Lannisters would have fought against Robb even if Sansa had died at the time. Robb still had Jaime, and wanted to split the Kingdom in half.

The Lannisters don't have the Kingdom though, they need to take it back from Stannis before they bring the fight to Robb again.

[Ingelheim]

The Lannisters don't have the Kingdom though, they need to take it back from Stannis before they bring the fight to Robb again.

I know I know, I was talking of course about what would happen after the Lannister-Tyrell took back KL and killed Stannis.

[Sullen]

I know I know, I was talking of course about what would happen after the Lannister-Tyrell took back KL and killed Stannis.

Oh, yeah, in that case you're right.

In the end, it just means more war for everyone.

[Guard of the Rainking]

If Cersei would have executed Joffrey then Tommen is the key to victory. Tommen is at Rosby so Lord Gyles might even give him up, because he fears Stannis' wroth, but Tommen might be able to escape. Even if he does Stannis has a large force of cavalry to hunt for him.

[Boarsbane]

Tywin crowns himself, marries Margaery, and takes KL back. Stannis dies or runs.