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Doran might have something up his sleave


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#1 Poupsi

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 12:03 AM

Good day folks, I wanted to write a little bit about what pieces the Prince Doran possess in the game of thrones.

 

The prince has kept all his plans secret from the start, and adding the different pieces together results into a very confusing picture.

 

 

1- The prince Doran declared to his daughter that he first planned to marry her to Viserys Targaryen.

Viserys is not aware of the pact at the beginning of AGOT,  indeed, ser Willem Darry didn't tell him. So, Viserys is begging for an army to conquer the 7 Kingdoms.

 

2- The prince had been plotting for years to the downfall of Tywin Lannister. That what he said to his nieces.

 

3- Doran is aware of the drawbacks of the dornish armies when it come to open fields battles. Also, the number of his armies and his wealth don't match the most powerful houses of the Kingdoms.

 

4- The prince and his brother seem to have built an important network in the 7 kingdoms ("a friend" informs him of Cersei's secret plot to murder him) adn in the free cities (the Sealord of Braavos himself witnessed the agreement between Oberyn and ser Willem Darry).

 

5- The prince tries to reach Dany through his son because she has dragons. Something he couldn't expect until the end of AGOT.

 

We don't know much about the potential allies of the Martells.

However, 1,2,3 and 5 gathered together don't make sense. Doran Martell planned to overthrow the king and to destroy his powerful allies in favour of Viserys and his daughter since the downfall of House Targayen.

However, he doesn't seem to have powerful supporters to his aim in the 7 Kingdoms and Dorne itself cannot even defy one of the greatest houses. Furthermore, he didn't expect that the Targ children would hatch dragon eggs.

 

So, the question is How could he expect to put Viserys on the Iron Throne ? With no great armies, no great fleet, no great wealth, no great allies.

 

It leaves us 2 options:

 

1- The prince has lost his wits and spend his time daydreaming at the pool.

 

2- The prince has secretly prepared an invasion.

 

Here are my gut feelings:

 

1- The fleet of the Martells has never been mentioned. Which let us suppose they don't have any or not a significant enough to been mentioned. However, in the reports given by GRRM about the war of the ninepenny kings, the dornishmen have played a significant role in the targ victory against the golden company especially by mobilising a substantial fleet. So, what happened to the dornish fleet ? The fleet of the dornish has not been defeated, not even used during the rebellion, so what happened to it.

 

I think, the fleet might be sleeping somewhere.

 

2- At the end of ADWD, there is rush to get sellwords all over the free cities. To act in slaver bay or to support a king or an other. The role of the company are growing more and more significant in the book. Could it be that Dorne has booked a company long ago, or could they have a secret army trained in secret ? Obviously, that would make sense to the ambitions of Doran about the IT, but they are no answer to these questions. However, Doran maintains that he 's been working closely with his brother all along. So, when Oberyn went in "exile" across the narrow sea, he signed the pact with ser Willem. It is known, that the Red Viper joined the second sons, and then he left them to form his own company. What happened to it ?? Just some game Oberyn played to pass time ??? Or some other secret the 2 brothers kept  ??

 

 

Anyways, people think Doran is feeble and weak, that might be true but I won't put my money on it.

 

Do you think the prince has something up his sleave ?? If yes, what that might be ??

 

 



#2 Minstral

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 12:24 AM

Part of Doran's plan was to seemingly bring together three armies in the form of Dorne, the Golden Company, and what the Dothraki offer. Its a pretty impressive coalition if it were able to be held together...IF is the word though. Honestly, what we have been told of Doran's plans are likely to be incomplete. With the emphasis that Martin has put onto his character, "Doran plays to win", I kind of get the feeling that there is more to his plans and assets.



#3 JonCon's Red Beard

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 12:34 AM

The whole "Doran plays to win" contrasts completely with Varys and Littlefinger. Doran carefully plans things, but he hasn't had any result so far. Littlefinger takes the best of the chaos while Varys and Illyrio's plans seem to change more than the moon. Sometimes -but not all the times, definitely- plan things too much or too carefully is not a good thing.



#4 Poupsi

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 12:34 AM

Part of Doran's plan was to seemingly bring together three armies in the form of Dorne, the Golden Company, and what the Dothraki offer. Its a pretty impressive coalition if it were able to be held together...IF is the word though. Honestly, what we have been told of Doran's plans are likely to be incomplete. With the emphasis that Martin has put onto his character, "Doran plays to win", I kind of get the feeling that there is more to his plans and assets.

 

I don't think the GC was part of Doran's plan. They turned Viserys away mocking him. As for the dothraki army, this might well be, but that suppose Doran would have been working with Illyrio and Varys, which doesn't seem to be the case: Doran is not aware of the survival of Aegon, nor Varys and Illyrio aware of the pact between Dorne and ser Darry.

 

All in all Khal Drogo and the golden company don't seem to be part of the initial plan of Doran. 



#5 Minstral

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 12:46 AM

 

I don't think the GC was part of Doran's plan. They turned Viserys away mocking him. As for the dothraki army, this might well be, but that suppose Doran would have been working with Illyrio and Varys, which doesn't seem to be the case: Doran is not aware of the survival of Aegon, nor Varys and Illyrio aware of the pact between Dorne and ser Darry.

 

All in all Khal Drogo and the golden company don't seem to be part of the initial plan of Doran. 

 

The members of the Golden Company and Jon Con make mention that they were supposed to combine their strength with Drogo when he crossed, which does confirm they were part of the plan the entire time.


Edited by Minstral, 04 May 2014 - 12:47 AM.


#6 theguyfromtheVale

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 02:47 AM

 

The members of the Golden Company and Jon Con make mention that they were supposed to combine their strength with Drogo when he crossed, which does confirm they were part of the plan the entire time.

 

 

They were part of Varys' and Illyrio's plan the entire time, yes. But does Doran know anything of their plans, or is he hatching his own? I think the latter is more likely.


Edited by theguyfromtheVale, 04 May 2014 - 02:48 AM.


#7 NomadicDirewolf

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 06:18 AM

doubt the whole secret fleet thing would be done again- GRRM has already done that with the Manderly's, plus its mentioned that the Dornish havent kept a fleet since Nymeria burned her ships upon landing in Dorne. 

Still, I never considered that Oberyn founding that sellsword company might have been more than something he was doing just to pass the time, so I wouldnt be suprised if that was something that came into play later on



#8 Bright Blue Eyes

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 08:42 AM

Doran was daydreaming. Mostly. Part of it was to keep Oberyn from doing something stupid, procastinating until it doesn't matter anymore.

 

A secret fleet or a secret army is impossible. Neither could Doran keep it hidden, nor Dorne afford it.



#9 Hippocras

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 09:02 AM

They were part of Varys' and Illyrio's plan the entire time, yes. But does Doran know anything of their plans, or is he hatching his own? I think the latter is more likely.

I lean this way too.

I think the Faith Militant might be Doran's coup. Strongest reason for believing it: Cersei's shame walk. It was a direct replica of what Tywin made his father's mistress do. It stank of Lannister revenge. It brought shame to the entire Lannister family.

With the Faith as Dorne's secret allies it would mean Doran has already captured King's Landing.

As for which of the two KL court schemers, LF or Varys has been his informant, I am leaning LF, but not strongly. It is a hard call to make. But to me Dorne being allied with Varys doesn't seem to fit the facts.

Edited by Hippocras, 04 May 2014 - 09:02 AM.


#10 Bright Blue Eyes

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 09:07 AM

As for which of the two KL court schemers, LF or Varys has been his informant, I am leaning LF, but not strongly. It is a hard call to make. But to me Dorne being allied with Varys doesn't seem to fit the facts.

Try Taena Merryweather.



#11 Beorn Snow

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 09:53 AM

I sure hope he has something up is sleeve.

Otherwise it´s just a lot of hype about nothing.



#12 Hippocras

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 10:10 AM

Try Taena Merryweather.


Well yes, but she is just an agent. She is not the main informant. He's had one there for years, with better access than she has. She came into the picture far too late to be the primary informant.

#13 Bright Blue Eyes

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 12:53 PM

Well yes, but she is just an agent. She is not the main informant. He's had one there for years, with better access than she has. She came into the picture far too late to be the primary informant.

Does he? Do you have any hints for that?



#14 Knight Of Winter

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Posted 04 May 2014 - 01:06 PM

Gosh, I wish Doran has some master-plan for achieving whatever he hopes to achieve. So far, all of his schemes have been failure after failure and I hope this will change.

 

Although I don't think he has hidden navy stashed somewhere. In on one Arianne's chapters (possibly from WOW so I'll use spoiler tags just in case), she thinks how

Spoiler

 

Even if they do have a fleet, it's probably not large or significant enough to be game changer.



#15 averde

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 01:41 AM

Doran doesn't have the manpower or influence alone to do anything. Dorne would be crushed by any one of the other paramount regions, let alone a group of them. He has no close allies. He had some decent plans in motion but each and ever single one of those plans has utterly and hilariously unraveled and failed miserably. The guy and his family has TERRIBLE luck. It's sad really.

#16 A Bastard Snow

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 02:01 AM

Doran doesn't have the manpower or influence alone to do anything. Dorne would be crushed by any one of the other paramount regions, let alone a group of them. He has no close allies. He had some decent plans in motion but each and ever single one of those plans has utterly and hilariously unraveled and failed miserably. The guy and his family has TERRIBLE luck. It's sad really.

Yea this pretty much.Dorne is not a game changing house like the Tyrell's or the Stark's or the Lannisters.All of which can easily bring 30k+ forces meanwhile Dorne at max could have around 15k.15k swords is alot but its not enough to solely support someone they will need the backing of houses outside of Dorne to win.And considering there is alot of Dornish hate along the border they cant count on any of those houses and the North wont support them as they simply dont care and the Tyrell's already have their hands on a King so they dont really care either.


Edited by A Bastard Snow, 05 May 2014 - 02:02 AM.


#17 Poupsi

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 11:17 PM

So, Wyman Manderly has been able to secretly raise a considerable army and a fleet while the north has been ravaged by the war, in what, 2 years. If it wasn't for Davos, no one would have had a hint of it.

 

Doran Martell hadn't been able to do the same in 16 years with all the power of Dorne (which might be more important of White Harbour's) and his connections!! Apart from the Iron Bank of Braavos, no one in Braavos seems to have taken part in anywar. Their role had been neutral all along, but the Sealord (probably one the most powerful man in the world) witnessed the pact between the Martells and the Targaryens, not very neutral I found. Even if it doesn't mean a support, it already shows a preference.

 

Can't believe Doran is a dumb idiot who orchestrated only long term failure. When he meant what he said to his daughter and nieces, it required more than words to defeat Tywin and the Crown. So what coulkd it be, I don't believe he meant he only had a piece of paper.



#18 Jon of the (Evil) Dead

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 11:34 PM

Well, I'd like to believe Doran has something up his sleeve, but so far the evidence tells us he doesn't have the best judgement:

 

- "I'm gonna let Arianne run away with Myrcella. What could go wrong?"

 

- "I'm gonna send my unexperienced and awkward son to a near-suicide mission with just a handful of companions, to cross a war-torn, strange continent only to meet a dragon queen who may or may not accept his offer. Huh, I wish I knew someone more capable for this mission, maybe someone charismatic, seductive, a warrior of great reputation with contacts and knowledge of Essos. Oh, what's that Oberyn? Yeah, yeah, good luck at King's Landing. Don't do anything rash!"

 

- "Nymeria, you're just as hot-blooded and impulsive as your late father. Which is why you're the perfect person to go to that viper pit that is King's Landing and play the subtle game of thrones."

 

I mean, the only way we could say any of these things were a good move or part of a larger plan is if Doran is really a heartless bastard that is willing to sacrifice his son, daughter, brother, nieces and ward, destroying any potential alliance or power play in the process.

 

Or he is just an idiot 



#19 chrisdaw

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Posted 05 May 2014 - 11:47 PM

He certainly has plenty left up his sleeve, but I doubt much of a surprise invasion force, I think it's more likely militaristically he intended to draw enemy forces South into Dorne and exhaust them, that seems to be the Dornish way.



#20 A Bastard Snow

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Posted 06 May 2014 - 01:35 AM

Well, I'd like to believe Doran has something up his sleeve, but so far the evidence tells us he doesn't have the best judgement:

 

- "I'm gonna let Arianne run away with Myrcella. What could go wrong?"

 

- "I'm gonna send my unexperienced and awkward son to a near-suicide mission with just a handful of companions, to cross a war-torn, strange continent only to meet a dragon queen who may or may not accept his offer. Huh, I wish I knew someone more capable for this mission, maybe someone charismatic, seductive, a warrior of great reputation with contacts and knowledge of Essos. Oh, what's that Oberyn? Yeah, yeah, good luck at King's Landing. Don't do anything rash!"

 

- "Nymeria, you're just as hot-blooded and impulsive as your late father. Which is why you're the perfect person to go to that viper pit that is King's Landing and play the subtle game of thrones."

 

I mean, the only way we could say any of these things were a good move or part of a larger plan is if Doran is really a heartless bastard that is willing to sacrifice his son, daughter, brother, nieces and ward, destroying any potential alliance or power play in the process.

 

Or he is just an idiot 

All of this made me laugh so much.

"Lets send my son who have 0 experience with women to seduce a woman he has never met who might have had her brother killed and who has firebreathing monsters in a land he has never been in with 4 people as protection".

Best plan ever 11/10 cant fail.

"Also lets not tell by daughter for 20 years because its a surprise"


Edited by A Bastard Snow, 06 May 2014 - 01:38 AM.