Doran might have something up his sleave

[Hippocras]

Well, I'd like to believe Doran has something up his sleeve, but so far the evidence tells us he doesn't have the best judgement:

- "I'm gonna let Arianne run away with Myrcella. What could go wrong?"

- "I'm gonna send my unexperienced and awkward son to a near-suicide mission with just a handful of companions, to cross a war-torn, strange continent only to meet a dragon queen who may or may not accept his offer. Huh, I wish I knew someone more capable for this mission, maybe someone charismatic, seductive, a warrior of great reputation with contacts and knowledge of Essos. Oh, what's that Oberyn? Yeah, yeah, good luck at King's Landing. Don't do anything rash!"

- "Nymeria, you're just as hot-blooded and impulsive as your late father. Which is why you're the perfect person to go to that viper pit that is King's Landing and play the subtle game of thrones."

I mean, the only way we could say any of these things were a good move or part of a larger plan is if Doran is really a heartless bastard that is willing to sacrifice his son, daughter, brother, nieces and ward, destroying any potential alliance or power play in the process.

Or he is just an idiot

I think you should consider this from a different angle. For every item on this list that appears to be a mistake, try considering for a moment that it was intentional, and think what it achieved if it was. No doubt some of these things are actually failed plans and blunders as you say, but it is very much worth considering that they might not be.

Arianne's plot and what could go wrong:

Consider that he WANTED something to go wrong, but only when Myrcella was safely far away from Sunspear so that Doran himself could not be accused of involvement.

Quentyn's quest:

Consider that showing desire for an alliance with Daenerys was worth a certain degree of risk. No one could frankly have predicted the idiotic actions of Quentyn. If he had not freed the dragons but simply failed to woo Daenerys, Doran would have found another way to secure an alliance with some gain for Dorne. No big deal.

Nym in KL:

He sent her for the same reason he sent Oberyn. He WANTS her to be herself. It is time to put his plan in motion and he wants tensions to be high. He knows about the trials, he knows the Lannister-Tyrell alliance is falling apart, he knows about Aegon, and it is time to make a move.

[DJIM]

I am convinced Doran has a plan and for some reason i think that even Arianne is an expendable piece in his scheme. I don't believe that he only wants revenge on the Lannisters.

[John Hulboy]

I'm also on board with the idea doran has a plan.i definitely think Taena is his spy but there are others helping doran.

[Hippocras]

Does he? Do you have any hints for that?

He has been plotting revenge since Elia's murder. More than a decade. You think it just suddenly occurred to him in the past year that maybe he would need an informant in KL?

Keeping tabs on events there was key to his decision to stay out of the war of Five Kings. Information is necessary to develop a long term scheme. And a single informant is not a great idea because it puts too much faith in one person. Doran is smarter than that.

Taena is most likely his, I fully agree. But not only Taena.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

So, Wyman Manderly has been able to secretly raise a considerable army and a fleet while the north has been ravaged by the war, in what, 2 years. If it wasn't for Davos, no one would have had a hint of it.

Doran Martell hadn't been able to do the same in 16 years with all the power of Dorne (which might be more important of White Harbour's) and his connections!! Apart from the Iron Bank of Braavos, no one in Braavos seems to have taken part in anywar. Their role had been neutral all along, but the Sealord (probably one the most powerful man in the world) witnessed the pact between the Martells and the Targaryens, not very neutral I found. Even if it doesn't mean a support, it already shows a preference.

Can't believe Doran is a dumb idiot who orchestrated only long term failure. When he meant what he said to his daughter and nieces, it required more than words to defeat Tywin and the Crown. So what coulkd it be, I don't believe he meant he only had a piece of paper.

Oh, everybody knows that Manderly has men and a fleet, it's the exact size that's unknown. Furthermore, it's just two years, and with a war to keep direct interaction limited.

Furthermore, Dorne can't afford a sizeable army or fleet. It simply can't.

He has been plotting revenge since Elia's murder. More than a decade. You think it just suddenly occurred to him in the past year that maybe he would need an informant in KL?

Keeping tabs on events there was key to his decision to stay out of the war of Five Kings. Information is necessary to develop a long term scheme. And a single informant is not a great idea because it puts too much faith in one person. Doran is smarter than that.

Taena is most likely his, I fully agree. But not only Taena.

And how do you go from the need for information to the assumption that he was working with Varys or LF? Pretty big step.

[Hippocras]

Varys and LF are the only ones who have so far been introduced as having been around in KL long enough, have enough high level access to important information, and are clearly willing to work towards different ends than basic safety and influence for their families and advancing the agenda of the King.

Otherwise, I suppose Lady Tanda has been around long enough, but she doesn't have the necessary access. Feel free to name other candidates, but it is a short list.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Varys and LF are the only ones who have so far been introduced as having been around in KL long enough, have enough high level access to important information, and are clearly willing to work towards different ends than basic safety and influence for their families and advancing the agenda of the King.

The problem here is that Doran doesn't show any knowledge on the level they could provide, nor is there any hint that they work with him. That they would be useful, no doubt, but that is no hint that they do.

Otherwise, I suppose Lady Tanda has been around long enough, but she doesn't have the necessary access. Feel free to name other candidates, but it is a short list.

How about the girl Pycelle fucks? How about that Dornish Master-at-Arms? How about servant XY? The only top secret stuff Doran seems to know is the plot to murder Trystane.

[Good Guy Garlan]

I think you should consider this from a different angle. For every item on this list that appears to be a mistake, try considering for a moment that it was intentional, and think what it achieved if it was. No doubt some of these things are actually failed plans and blunders as you say, but it is very much worth considering that they might not be.

Arianne's plot and what could go wrong:

Consider that he WANTED something to go wrong, but only when Myrcella was safely far away from Sunspear so that Doran himself could not be accused of involvement.

Quentyn's quest:

Consider that showing desire for an alliance with Daenerys was worth a certain degree of risk. No one could frankly have predicted the idiotic actions of Quentyn. If he had not freed the dragons but simply failed to woo Daenerys, Doran would have found another way to secure an alliance with some gain for Dorne. No big deal.

Nym in KL:

He sent her for the same reason he sent Oberyn. He WANTS her to be herself. It is time to put his plan in motion and he wants tensions to be high. He knows about the trials, he knows the Lannister-Tyrell alliance is falling apart, he knows about Aegon, and it is time to make a move.

Fair point, but the thing is, that even if these moves were intentional, they're still far from being worthy of a mastermind:

- Arianne's plot: Myrcella is an incredibly valuable pawn, being Tommen's heir. She could be Doran's best assest if everything regarding Targs were to fail. So if he wanted her dead, it would mean he's incredibly short-sighted for not realizing the girl's value

- Quentyn's quest: The thing that bothers me the most about this whole thing is that...Doran has never heard of envoys? I mean, the Lannisters sent Littlefinger to broker the Tyrell alliance, they didn't put themselves in harm's way. Why didn't Doran do the same? Why risk his son at all? Sending Drinkwater or Archibald with his message and his proposal would have accomplished the same thing (maybe even more because Dany wouldn't have seen Quentyn that way)

- Nym (and Oberyn). All he knows is that there's a potential alliance with Aegon, but it's nothing written in stone. The picture of him as an overly-cautious man contrasts with the man who sends Oberyn and Nym to taunt and provoke the Lannisters. In fact, I lay Oberyn's death at Doran's feet (though not entirely, the Viper obviously shares the blame), because he knew how his brother was and he sent him to the lion's den anyway

Overall, I think Doran failed to comprehend that there's a tool for every task and a task for every tool.

[Khal Shaggydog]

The Manderlys, on Robbs orders, can build a fleet because they have the silver, and they have near unlimited access to huge timbered forests, which Dorne does not have. Even if they do, they would need to transport wood from the mountains over desert to wherever they were going to build, and it wouldn't be in secret since their entire shoreline is on a major trade route from the Arbor to KL to Essos. White Harbor is hidden inland of the north, it is a destination, not a pass-through point, and they can ship wood down the White Knife.

I agree that Doran probably has some kind of something up his sleeve, but I do have the sneaking suspicion its a fake-out and his master plans have all been laid to waste. He may be a complete asymmetrical thinker, however, and losing his two closest male relatives (Oberyn and Quentyn) are some kind of feint to his real plan through the Sand Snakes, Arianne, and the connections he has through his wife. His wife is foreign. and lives abroad, and he has some kind of connection to the Sealord of Braavos. Not sure what he could possibly be enticing him with- but I would have to say if there was any secret agenda from Doran it would have to involve some sizable foreign powers.

Outside possibilities - he has some working relationship with Darkstar, and possible Sarella, but both are doubtful, and my gut tells me those two are up to their own individual things. Can Doran possibly be in league with the Hightowers of Oldtown? I don't see why not - they are both pretty much out of the War of 5K, and have some kind of something going on, and we don't know much about them.

[Dornish Vinegar]

Outside possibilities - he has some working relationship with Darkstar, and possible Sarella, but both are doubtful, and my gut tells me those two are up to their own individual things. Can Doran possibly be in league with the Hightowers of Oldtown? I don't see why not - they are both pretty much out of the War of 5K, and have some kind of something going on, and we don't know much about them.

That's an interesting idea. I agree with what you said about any second level of secret plots involving foreign powers--Mellario's absense and foreign origins, along with Oberyn's long years abroad (not to mention the omission of the name of the sellsword company he founded), I think point to this in a real logical way. But the Hightowers do seem like a sleeping giant, don't they? I could see why Doran would want to replace the Tyrells with the Hightowers as Lords Paramount of the Reach if indeed the animosity between the Martells and Tyrells is true, but unless there is a detail in the history of the Hightowers I am not recalling, I am wondering what their motivation would be. Of course, rise in power's always an option, but why ally with Dorne in that case? How are they going to help dispose of the Tyrells?

Interesting to think of both Oberyn and Sarella spending time in Oldtown in the context of this possiblity, that's for sure. As well as Doran's reaction to Obara's desire to sack the city.

[Khal Shaggydog]

I think there might be something to the Hightowers and the Martells being allies of the Targs in the past, but both mostly on their own terms, instead of being forced into submission like most of the other Houses. Aegon I traveled to Oldtown to be crowned. The Targaryens brought the Martells into the fold through marriage.

I just don't see any other Westeros based plot by Doran that could have any serious help in him "winning".

[Winterfell is Burning]

Quentyn's quest:

Consider that showing desire for an alliance with Daenerys was worth a certain degree of risk. No one could frankly have predicted the idiotic actions of Quentyn. If he had not freed the dragons but simply failed to woo Daenerys, Doran would have found another way to secure an alliance with some gain for Dorne. No big deal..

Also, the only reason Quentyn was sent was due to Doran's ill health that made it impossible for him to go KL. If he was in good health, Oberyn would go East, and he almost certainly would have no major problems seducing Daenerys.

[lidsa]

Could Mellario be Septa Lemore?

[Hippocras]

I am working on something related on a different thread if anyone is interested in helping that theory develop.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/107319-darkstar-is-the-grass-snake/page-4#entry5748861

[Dornish Vinegar]

I think there might be something to the Hightowers and the Martells being allies of the Targs in the past, but both mostly on their own terms, instead of being forced into submission like most of the other Houses. Aegon I traveled to Oldtown to be crowned. The Targaryens brought the Martells into the fold through marriage.

I just don't see any other Westeros based plot by Doran that could have any serious help in him "winning".

Ahhhh, yes, I forgot about Aegon's crowning. That's very interesting. I like the idea of houses that historically sort of got the upper hand on the Targaryens supporting their restoration. Huh. The wheels are turning...

But yeah, I think I agree with what you're saying about the Westeros-based plot. It seems Doran based much of his plan outside Westeros, to the detriment of any alliances with other regions in Westeros. That's consistent with his close-to-the-chest style, but it's still a liability if he's actually got nothing else in the bag outside Westeros. Of course, since we all seem to agree that we probably haven't seen his whole plan yet, I wouldn't be surprised if it's revealed that he does have Westerosi allies, but they'd probably be people we've heard about already--some think Varys or Littlefinger, or the new High Sparrow, maybe the Hightowers or the Tyrells. Nothing brand new, probably.

[Hippocras]

Ahhhh, yes, I forgot about Aegon's crowning. That's very interesting. I like the idea of houses that historically sort of got the upper hand on the Targaryens supporting their restoration. Huh. The wheels are turning...

But yeah, I think I agree with what you're saying about the Westeros-based plot. It seems Doran based much of his plan outside Westeros, to the detriment of any alliances with other regions in Westeros. That's consistent with his close-to-the-chest style, but it's still a liability if he's actually got nothing else in the bag outside Westeros. Of course, since we all seem to agree that we probably haven't seen his whole plan yet, I wouldn't be surprised if it's revealed that he does have Westerosi allies, but they'd probably be people we've heard about already--some think Varys or Littlefinger, or the new High Sparrow, maybe the Hightowers or the Tyrells. Nothing brand new, probably.

In that regard, it is interesting to make note of the various stops that Oberyn and Elia made on the way to visit the Lannisters. They stopped at Starfall, the Arbour, the Hightower, the Crakehalls and some house of the Shield Islands.

This list might be a clue to Southern alliances.

[Poupsi]

- Nym (and Oberyn). All he knows is that there's a potential alliance with Aegon, but it's nothing written in stone. The picture of him as an overly-cautious man contrasts with the man who sends Oberyn and Nym to taunt and provoke the Lannisters. In fact, I lay Oberyn's death at Doran's feet (though not entirely, the Viper obviously shares the blame), because he knew how his brother was and he sent him to the lion's den anyway

I actually I like the idea of Nym in KL. Don't know if we're gonna have the development details of that storylines; too much going on in TWOW, I suppose.

I suppose it is 2 different things: Oberyn went to KL because he wanted too, and he didn't go to celebrate Dorne's alliance with the Crown. He did go there to get justice for his sister, something he achieved quite well actually (the Mountain died painfully and slowly, the most vicious death he could hope for him, and Tywin died in his own poo by the hand of his own son).

Nym is sent in KL to sit at the small council. Things are already tense between the Lannisters and the Tyrells, especially after Kevan's death. Both sides distrust the dornish and pretty sure the Tyrells will blame Nym for being a donishwoman who spoils the small council chamber by her presence. Something that might lead Cersei and Nym to consolidate a "professional" relationship.

Nym just gets in the best position to bring dissents inside the crown, plus she is a beautiful, noble seductress. She will probably use her sexappeal to gather people to her side and to her plans. She might be able to lead the crown to its doom and to bring the Lannisters and the Tyrells to jump at each other's throat.

Adding the fact that her little sister is gonna try to turn the Faith against the crown.

[Osha13]

Doran Martell could secretly have Varys' loyalty. Varys' ambitions have always been murky, and it is hard to tell whose side he is on, we just know that it is supposed to be for the good of the realm. Isn't Arianne Martell going to meet Aegon in the Winds of Winter preview chapter?

[chrisdaw]

Doran states he is wary of Varys spies and GRRM has said Varys and Illyrio don't know of the Dornish marriage pact.

[Fat Trell]

Playing to win sounds great, but Doran obviously doesn't line up with what the interpretation of that phrase means(in America at least). Doran doesn't take risks because he values winning more than he fears losing. Doran's version of playing to win seems to mean he acts on his own only when victory is certain.

The problem with is that victory is never certain in Westoros.

A great emphasis is placed on his inability to do things in a timely fashion. I think this is a clear indication of his greater flaws when it comes to politics.

Plus as has already been mentioned, his actions seem to imply he's either not all that bright or a broken man. Which would be a nice subversion on GRRM's part. Turns out that quiet, non-militant lord is just as much a dumbass as any of the big, brutish ones we've seen.