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The Blackfish's trajectory


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#1 hollowcrown

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 07:30 AM

Last we heard of The Blackfish, he escaped from Riverrun with Robb's widow with him. Where is he going now and will he factor in to any future storylines?

 

It's fairly obvious he can't really go North...unless he meets up the Howland Reed, because the North is Bolton territory and it doesn't seem likely he has had the opportunity to contact Stark loyalists like Manderly.

 

However it is possible he may run into Stoneheart and her gang in the Riverlands. That is a meeting I'd love to see, I wonder how he'd react to seeing Cat as a vengeful zombie.

 

The most likely thing to see in my opinion is him going to the Vale and meeting up with Sansa - this could have a bunch of implications as surely he would know what Sansa would look like, seeing as she is the splitting image of a young Catelyn? Him commanding the Vale armies as they finally enter the war under the clever leadership of Sansa would be brilliant, Maybe he'll even be the one with the guts to kill Littlefinger.



#2 R.O.Edwards

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 07:38 AM

Jeyne's not with the Blackfish. She's on her way to Casterly rock with Edmure as a captive.



#3 I'll pay the iron price

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 07:59 AM

Back to Riverrun 



#4 The Mountain That Flies

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 08:04 AM

The Vale seems the likeliest bet, given his familiarity with it, but then again that could just be a tease. He's not yet with Stonheart (since Brienne probably would have seen him at her "trial"), but he surely would have heard about the Brotherhood and could be searching for them. Going North would be odd since he doesn't really have any connections there, but then again given the current situation up there finding a friendly house and lying low wouldn't be the worst choice.



#5 hollowcrown

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 11:06 AM

The Vale seems the likeliest bet, given his familiarity with it, but then again that could just be a tease. He's not yet with Stonheart (since Brienne probably would have seen him at her "trial"), but he surely would have heard about the Brotherhood and could be searching for them. Going North would be odd since he doesn't really have any connections there, but then again given the current situation up there finding a friendly house and lying low wouldn't be the worst choice.

 

I'm pretty sure we'll see more from him so whether he runs into Brienne and Jaime before they get to Stoneheart, or just turns up and helps Sansa, either would be cool.



#6 Theda Baratheon

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 12:48 PM

I think he will heading for the Brotherhood and Stoneheart. 



#7 TallTyrion

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 12:52 PM

He would probably like to go the the Vale, but the mountains are impassible at this point so he would have to be smuggled into Gulltown by ship. I'm sure he has enough friends to accomplish this but it's risky. 

 

I think he will most likely end up in the Riverlands with the BwB



#8 Veltigar

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 01:12 PM

I'm convinced that the BF went to HR in the Neck

 

Reasons:

 

1) It's totally unexpected. The Riverlands are a dangerous place with the Lannisters and Freys around, an escape to the Vale is to obvious (+ he doesn't trust LF I'd think). In the Neck on the other hand, he's totally secure, amongst hardcore Stark loyalists and out of reach of other parties if he wishes it.

 

2) Robb's will is there.

 

3) Manpower. The BF is not done with raising hell. But in order to kick ass he'll need men. In GW, he'll find the Crannogmen, as well as the men of GG and MM. And there might be others still, survivors of the RW, Ser Kyle's 600 and so on.

 

4) Ideal location. The Neck would be an ideal location from which to launch an attack on the Twins. It would be totally unexpected and the Twins have never been more vunerable (their men are spread out all over the North and the Riverlands, and they don't expect an attack on their stronghold).

 

Furthermore the Twins (or a prison convoy from the Twins) is the most valuable target in the region. A succesful attack would see the release of valuable Stark loyalists hostages. If they are free, than the North and the Riverlands can once more take their gloves off and start fighting. It would also be a harsh blow to Frey power if the prisoners are taken away from them (and that's on top of the damage their castle may suffer in the attempt). 

 

Finally, it would also be more in accord with the Tully motto "family, duty and honor" and Edmure's wishes.  If the BF's attempt is succesful than he would be able to free Roslyn and her child. Edmure loves her and he knows that the child, if it were a boy, must fear for his life. If the BF frees them than than he doesn't need to fear anymore. The child is safe, but Edmure himself is as well, since they need him more than ever as a hostage if the BF is at large with a Tully heir.



#9 northernmonkey

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 01:16 PM

I think he's almost certainly going to the Vale. Obviously he's spent a lot of time there and has a lot of contacts so it makes perfect sense. He must also know that convincing the Vale lords to join the war is his only chance of wining back Riverrun for the Tullies. It would also set up some interesting scenes with him and LF, who he's good friends with. He might even want to say goodbye to his sister and find out the truth about her death.

 

I've got a feeling that LF might end up killing Brynden, because he would get in the way of Sansa's claim to Riverrun.


Edited by northernmonkey, 11 May 2014 - 01:16 PM.


#10 TallTyrion

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 01:22 PM

I think he's almost certainly going to the Vale. Obviously he's spent a lot of time there and has a lot of contacts so it makes perfect sense. He must also know that convincing the Vale lords to join the war is his only chance of wining back Riverrun for the Tullies. It would also set up some interesting scenes with him and LF, who he's good friends with. He might even want to say goodbye to his sister and find out the truth about her death.

 

I've got a feeling that LF might end up killing Brynden, because he would get in the way of Sansa's claim to Riverrun.

 

Lyssa is his niece.

 

He also already failed at convincing the Vale lords to join the war and that was before the Northern army was destroyed and the Riverlands conquered so they're not gonna get involved now. I don't remember him being friends with LF either, wouldn't LF have been a child when he was at Riverrun while Bryden a full grown man.



#11 northernmonkey

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 01:26 PM

 

Lyssa is his niece.

 

He also already failed at convincing the Vale lords to join the war and that was before the Northern army was destroyed and the Riverlands conquered so they're not gonna get involved now. I don't remember him being friends with LF either, wouldn't LF have been a child when he was at Riverrun while Bryden a full grown man.

 

Oh yeah, for some reason I always think of him as Cat and Lysa's sister.

 

He's definitely on good terms with LF, I can't remember the exact details. And he might have failed to convince the Vale to join the war before but I don't see him as having many other options right now.



#12 Veltigar

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 01:27 PM

 

Lyssa is his niece.

 

He also already failed at convincing the Vale lords to join the war and that was before the Northern army was destroyed and the Riverlands conquered so they're not gonna get involved now. I don't remember him being friends with LF either, wouldn't LF have been a child when he was at Riverrun while Bryden a full grown man.

And he would never make it to the Vale. He's one man and can't go against both the snow and the mountain clans in the passes. On top of that, the Vale is very predictable, there would certainly be men looking for him on the way towards the Vale.



#13 TallTyrion

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 01:31 PM

 

Oh yeah, for some reason I always think of him as Cat and Lysa's sister.

 

He's definitely on good terms with LF, I can't remember the exact details. And he might have failed to convince the Vale to join the war before but I don't see him as having many other options right now.

 

That's true he's definitely low on options and as you can tell from my display pic I will be rooting for him heavily in the next two books. I think his best option is to either go to the Neck or join the BwB and fight some guerrilla warfare against the Freys. 

 

And he would never make it to the Vale. He's one man and can't go against both the snow and the mountain clans in the passes. On top of that, the Vale is very predictable, there would certainly be men looking for him on the way towards the Vale.

 

He would need to take a ship to Gulltown, he could probably get one at Saltpans to take him there assuming he's still got some friends in the Riverlands that would be willing to help him, but I agree I don't think he will head there.  



#14 Paper Waver

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 01:35 PM

I think after he got the latest news from Edmure about Tom and the BwB, he decided to stay and hide in Riverrun, organize the servants for the upcoming Red Wedding 2.0.



#15 northernmonkey

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 01:45 PM

 

He also already failed at convincing the Vale lords to join the war and that was before the Northern army was destroyed and the Riverlands conquered so they're not gonna get involved now.

 

Another thing I've just realised. When he tried to get the Vale to join the war it was before Riverrun was stripped from the Tullies. With Lysa now dead and the Starks presumed dead Brynden and Sweetrobin are the only living Tully heirs. I think the Vale lords would be happy to join the war in order to win back Sweetrobin's birthright from the Freys.



#16 TallTyrion

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Posted 11 May 2014 - 01:57 PM

 

Another thing I've just realised. When he tried to get the Vale to join the war it was before Riverrun was stripped from the Tullies. With Lysa now dead and the Starks presumed dead Brynden and Sweetrobin are the only living Tully heirs. I think the Vale lords would be happy to join the war in order to win back Sweetrobin's birthright from the Freys.

 

You're forgetting Little Fingers influence though. He was the one who kept the Vale lords out of the war by manipulating Lysa. The Tullies were striped of their Lordship of the Riverlands and LF was made Lord Paramount of the Trident. LF is essentially running the Vale now so he will put the Kibosh on any attempts the Vale lords may make to enter the war. 

 

I believe the Lannisters' plan for the Riverlands is similar to the plan they had for the North with Tyrion and Sansa. Edmure's son by Roslin will be fostered by the Lannisters and then eventually given Riverrun. LF runs the show in the interim like Bolton was meant too with the North. Therefore any attempts to contest that means open conflict with the Crown something LF wants to avoid for as long as possible.


Edited by TallTyrion, 11 May 2014 - 01:59 PM.


#17 Shpati

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 01:00 PM

I think after he got the latest news from Edmure about Tom and the BwB, he decided to stay and hide in Riverrun, organize the servants for the upcoming Red Wedding 2.0.

This was my first thought as well. 

 

They searched for the Blackfish soon after his escape, but I think the Blackfish is being bold and hiding right at Riverrun organizing with Tom Seven Strings. 



#18 Mulled Wino

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 01:08 PM

I think after he got the latest news from Edmure about Tom and the BwB, he decided to stay and hide in Riverrun, organize the servants for the upcoming Red Wedding 2.0.

 

Agreed.  Most likely place for him to be captured is on his way to the neck- where everyone likely supposes he will go.



#19 juanml82

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 01:45 PM

 

Lyssa is his niece.

 

He also already failed at convincing the Vale lords to join the war and that was before the Northern army was destroyed and the Riverlands conquered so they're not gonna get involved now. I don't remember him being friends with LF either, wouldn't LF have been a child when he was at Riverrun while Bryden a full grown man.

Exactly. The Blackfish was sort of a foster uncle to Littlefinger and helped to raise him. I wonder what he thinks of him: he knows he was rewarded by the Iron Throne, but he doesn't know how much he was involved in the war. It's very possible that he ignores that LF is the one who arranged the Tyrell alliance which secured the Lannister victory. And LF is almost family. His arrival to the Vale will also affect Sansa, who may distrust him despite the fact that she shouldn't.

But... if the Vale Lords didn't go to war when the North was winning, why should the BF believe they would now, specially with the Lord Paramount of the Riverlands (as far as the IT is concerned) as their liege?

The Reeds and the BWB are far surer ways to continue the fight. And maybe there lies the problem: the Reeds and the BWB are continuing the fight with or without him. He may believe he can make a larger difference with the higher risk gamble of going to the Vale.

 

Whatever the case, I think he had arranged his next destination with Edmure. He's certainly not playing solo.

 

 

Another thing I've just realised. When he tried to get the Vale to join the war it was before Riverrun was stripped from the Tullies. With Lysa now dead and the Starks presumed dead Brynden and Sweetrobin are the only living Tully heirs. I think the Vale lords would be happy to join the war in order to win back Sweetrobin's birthright from the Freys.

Lady Waynwood has a couple of Frey wards. It's possible that Lady Waynwood and Harry the Heir will oppose to war against the Freys.



#20 The Bittersteel

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Posted 13 May 2014 - 01:47 PM

I think the Vale's probably the best bet but the Neck is reasonable too. No-one's going to/able to snoop around there but he would have to sneak past the Twins to be able to reach it from Riverrun.