My Theory On Aegon Vi (Young Griff)

[Shagwell the mad jester]

Sorry to be a bit cryptic, but for some reason quoting doesn't seem to work for my account on this forum. You basically said, why Varys waited so long with his "master class of mind manipulation" (which isn't so much master class by the way) and why he hadn't acted much earlier. That's how I understood it, and that was my answer.

[whatsinthepaste?]

Ok so I Did some research on the Blackfyre Rebellion, Damon Blackfyre himself, and Sir Barrison Selmy's age and now I'm convince That Aegon is the Son Rheagar Because: Sir Barrison Selmy Defeated the last of the male line of black somewhere in the 250s when was between 16 and 23, he's now 63. Since ppl in westeros like to knock up girl young meaning that if there was female still left alive mean that at least 4 generations blackfyes has past since the we get to present time. That way to much a stretch to give to JonCon of all People.

Yes the Blackfyre's succeeded in a female. Yes quite a shaky claim to the throne. But Henry Tudor didnt have much of a claim either.

[Justin Amey]

Yes the Blackfyre's succeeded in a female. Yes quite a shaky claim to the throne. But Henry Tudor didnt have much of a claim either.

I understand that the could(and that's a effy claim) be blackfyre from the female line, but ani't no nay they would look like they are Targs after so many generations. I mean they are would be blending into essos people. For all you know they could have Targ feature but be as dark as Khal drogo by now.

[whatsinthepaste?]

I understand that the could(and that's a effy claim) be blackfyre from the female line, but ani't no nay they would look like they are Targs after so many generations. I mean they are would be blending into essos people. For all you know they could have Targ feature but be as dark as Khal drogo by now.

Very true. I hadn't considered that..

That feels like a hole in the fAegon being a blackfyre theory. Though i am of the belief he is real Aegon.

IMO Black or Red dragon matters not. Aegon will sieze the throne. He has the signature targ look, and i bet thats all he will need (oh and that army thing)

[ckwatch1958]

It all sounds very good and all but still, having a white haired, purple eyed kid that look just like Rhaegar and hoping of hoping that he would fool JonCon from a completely different gene pool I would say is far reaching.

And you you got to understand that Varys is from across the sea and only been in the Mad king service for a few years, do you really think he would know exactly from which house would mix together to make a perfectly good replica of a kid that would pass as the son of Rhaegar.

I understand that these theories sound good and all, but for me theories are meant to be tested and most are not holding up that well. I'm just saying.

You misread my original post. I wasn't proposing that Young Griff was Ned/Ashara's child. I was suggesting that maybe the child killed by Clegane was Ned/Ashara's child, i.e, that when choosing a child to masquerade as Aegon, Varys/whoever chose a child of roughly the same age and coloring. Like Arianne did when she was smuggling Myrcella out of Sunspear. The idea wasn't to make people looking closely at the baby think it was Aegon. Instead, it was to keep people from noticing that Aegon was gone. The fact that the child was killed in a way that made ID impossible wasn't something that couldn't have been planned on.

[Myraan]

These discussions make my head explode - because i find myself thinking both sides are right.

The Mummers Dragon stuff is just too damn convincing. At least that he is fake. The Blackfyre stuff is more speculation and educated guessing imo - though it may very well be true.

But.... tHotU stuff, three heads, aegon, blue rose, rhaegar wondering who third might be - us the reader knowing its dany, etc..... well that all implies to me that baby aegon did survive after all. Which makes me wonder if we havent actually met him yet. Or rather we havent had the reveal. How old is Ned Storm/Dayne?

@ckwatch1958 ....when I first wondered how my belief that Aegon lives and Young Griff is the Mummer's Dragon can both be true - it did make me wonder about identity of the baby that actually was killed.... which then led me to hope all of my guesses are utterly wrong in case it was actually Ned's bastard

and to confuse the whole issue further - what are the implications to the identity of all these babies if that septa actually is ashara or lyanna?.

edit.... to answer another post i think in this thread - forget who.... wouldn't the Dark Flame be the Red Priest hanging out with Victorian given the pairings... is he called Moqorro?

[ckwatch1958]

These discussions make my head explode - because i find myself thinking both sides are right.

The Mummers Dragon stuff is just too damn convincing. At least that he is fake. The Blackfyre stuff is more speculation and educated guessing imo - though it may very well be true.

But.... tHotU stuff, three heads, aegon, blue rose, rhaegar wondering who third might be - us the reader knowing its dany, etc..... well that all implies to me that baby aegon did survive after all. Which makes me wonder if we havent actually met him yet. Or rather we havent had the reveal. How old is Ned Storm/Dayne?

@ckwatch1958 ....when I first wondered how my belief that Aegon lives and Young Griff is the Mummer's Dragon can both be true - it did make me wonder about identity of the baby that actually was killed.... which then led me to hope all of my guesses are utterly wrong in case it was actually Ned's bastard

and to confuse the whole issue further - what are the implications to the identity of all these babies if that septa actually is ashara or lyanna?.

edit.... to answer another post i think in this thread - forget who.... wouldn't the Dark Flame be the Red Priest hanging out with Victorian given the pairings... is he called Moqorro?

yeah, Moqorro could be the red priest, and he is coming. Or it could refer more generally to the Red Priests as a group, since there were POVs showing the Red High Priest speaking out on the subject of dany and the dragons.

Also, the "Mummer's dragon" issue is still ambiguous. Yes, it could mean a pretend dragon, or it could refer Varys (who was a mummer), and mean nothing more than Varys' dragon. Nothing to conclude the issue yet except hunches.

One other thought. Mummers' dragons, as they were used in plays, etc, were usually set up to be killed by the hero. So if Griff is a fake dragon, was the intent for him to become a ruler? Or was the plan to have someone else defeat Griff, and use it to springboard to power?

Finally, though the mummer's dragon issue is ambiguous, I have a hard time forgetting Varys' speech to Tyrion describing his castration. In that context, I'm not sure I believe that he would have devoted his life to a scheme to put the half-mad, blood & fire & magic Targs back on the throne.

[Justin Amey]

You misread my original post. I wasn't proposing that Young Griff was Ned/Ashara's child. I was suggesting that maybe the child killed by Clegane was Ned/Ashara's child, i.e, that when choosing a child to masquerade as Aegon, Varys/whoever chose a child of roughly the same age and coloring. Like Arianne did when she was smuggling Myrcella out of Sunspear. The idea wasn't to make people looking closely at the baby think it was Aegon. Instead, it was to keep people from noticing that Aegon was gone. The fact that the child was killed in a way that made ID impossible wasn't something that couldn't have been planned on.

:dunno: Wasn't it discussed in a chapter of ADWD that Varys already had a contingency plan just in case which was dubbed the "pisswater prince". I Seriously have have a hard time believing they would put another noble child in it's place.

These discussions make my head explode - because i find myself thinking both sides are right.

The Mummers Dragon stuff is just too damn convincing. At least that he is fake. The Blackfyre stuff is more speculation and educated guessing imo - though it may very well be true.

But.... tHotU stuff, three heads, aegon, blue rose, rhaegar wondering who third might be - us the reader knowing its dany, etc..... well that all implies to me that baby aegon did survive after all. Which makes me wonder if we havent actually met him yet. Or rather we havent had the reveal. How old is Ned Storm/Dayne?

@ckwatch1958 ....when I first wondered how my belief that Aegon lives and Young Griff is the Mummer's Dragon can both be true - it did make me wonder about identity of the baby that actually was killed.... which then led me to hope all of my guesses are utterly wrong in case it was actually Ned's bastard

and to confuse the whole issue further - what are the implications to the identity of all these babies if that septa actually is ashara or lyanna?.

edit.... to answer another post i think in this thread - forget who.... wouldn't the Dark Flame be the Red Priest hanging out with Victorian given the pairings... is he called Moqorro?

I beileve Ned Storm is 12 as of ADWD

[ckwatch1958]

:dunno: The pisswater prince is the story as told to Young Griff/Aegon. Nothing to indicate whether it was true or not, simply that it was told.

Getting an anonymous child from a drunk is one possibility. Getting a child who shares Targ coloring from the sister of a member of the Kingsguard is another.

Maybe there is something in the timing that makes it impossible. There are folks on this board (particularly people from the old board) who looked closely at the whole chronology of Roberts rebellion in relationship to Harrenhal, etc. From what I remember of the discussion back then, it seemed like GRRM had left some ambiguities that prevented too precise of a timeline. In my hazy memory, I also seem to remember that the timeline was a bit longer than what appears at first impression.

Were any of those threads replicated on this board?

[Justin Amey]

:dunno: The pisswater prince is the story as told to Young Griff/Aegon. Nothing to indicate whether it was true or not, simply that it was told.

Getting an anonymous child from a drunk is one possibility. Getting a child who shares Targ coloring from the sister of a member of the Kingsguard is another.

Maybe there is something in the timing that makes it impossible. There are folks on this board (particularly people from the old board) who looked closely at the whole chronology of Roberts rebellion in relationship to Harrenhal, etc. From what I remember of the discussion back then, it seemed like GRRM had left some ambiguities that prevented too precise of a timeline. In my hazy memory, I also seem to remember that the timeline was a bit longer than what appears at first impression.

Were any of those threads replicated on this board?

I'm pretty sure that Ashara left KL before the Rebellion got there, an I'm everybody knows that to properly wipe out a line, everybody must go, even the children. There's no way Ashara would switch her (supposed) baby (a noble child) with another noble child knowing the danger it will be in. It would be better to switch with a common child in almost all scenarios.

[jabulaniman]

What does RR stand for? Never seen it before.

[Justin Amey]

What does RR stand for? Never seen it before.

Raymond Richard

[Shagwell the mad jester]

Please discuss the baby changing scenarios a bit further, the more you do, the more its logical flaws become apparent.

The scenario with the least problematic assertions is still, that the baby killed by Ser Gregor Clegane was indeed Aegon.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

[zaphodbrx]

You forgot one of the most important evidence: Dany sees a vision in the House of the Undying, where Rhaegar holds baby Aegon and says that "his is the song of ice and fire".

[Shagwell the mad jester]

You forgot one of the most important evidence: Dany sees a vision in the House of the Undying, where Rhaegar holds baby Aegon and says that "his is the song of ice and fire".

That's a bit ambiguous. This could very well be one of the visions, that point to things that only could have been, like the vision of Dany's son.

And besides, it doesn't prove that it's Young Griff who is Aegon.

[ckwatch1958]

You forgot one of the most important evidence: Dany sees a vision in the House of the Undying, where Rhaegar holds baby Aegon and says that "his is the song of ice and fire".

Even assuming that is a vision of something that actually happened, it doesn't mean Rhaegar was correct. At one point Rhaegar thought that he, himself was the PTWP. Later he thought it was his son. Mel thinks it is Stannis. Details of the prophecy could be interpreted to suggest Dany. A vision of Rhaegar making a statement isn't proof of the validity of the statement.

[lareine]

OP:

2. I agree that in normal situations, JC's trust in the boy's identity means he looks like Rhaegar, at least when the boy has turned nearly 18. But, he took charge of the boy when he was 5 or 6. I reckon JC could not have seen any resemblance between the boy and Rhaegar at that time, even if the boy was really Rhaegar's son. But when he saw the boy growing up, in the belief that he was Rhaegar's son, he could have easily overlooked the dissimilarities between the boy and Rhaegar. [ I am bad at telling who children look like, even after they become adults. Honestly, I still can't say if my younger brother (who is 17 yrs old) looks like my mother or my father. ]

He was ready to accept anything. As I said in point 3

To supporters of the Blackfyre/Brightflame theory, I have a question for you that I've never seen discussed:

If JC didn't take charge of the boy until he was approx. 5 or 6, then do you think that from birth he was told that he was Aegon, the supposedly dead son of R&E? If he really was the child of Illyrio & Sara, I imagine Illyrio & Vary's plan would have to had to take shape very early in his infancy, possibly even before his birth. It couldn't have been something they just thought up when he was 4 or 5, because a child that age is old enough to consciously know and remember his own identity. How do you think this went down?

[Justin Amey]

Please discuss the baby changing scenarios a bit further, the more you do, the more its logical flaws become apparent.

The scenario with the least problematic assertions is still, that the baby killed by Ser Gregor Clegane was indeed Aegon.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

I can do that, but you are going to have to explain to me where you going with this Occam's Razor

OK so the rebellion had been going on for about a year, everybody is Rebellion against him left and right and they are stream rolling everybody. All the present Targs knew that if they succeed they are through, any intelligent person can see that, even Elia Martell (she was frail of health but not dim witness).

In order to wipe out a line every must go (men ,women, children) dirty businesses but must be done. Elia cant leave because dorne might rebel as well and the Rebellion is barreling towards the king and his heirs. It is not a stretch that Varys had body double on hand for aegon (he's smart like that). So when Lannisters shows up and the Mad king open the door for them he know he only had maybe.....10- 15 minutes to make to Elia's quarters. It would not take much convincing for Elia to hand over Aegon she can clearly see the mayhem from her room, he know the tunnel better than any currently alive then and now having a few birds keeping him safe is not a stretch. He smuggle Tyrion out without much trouble so it possible.

Jon Snow tricked Stannis and Mance Raider with a baby swap, if he could do it Varys would have no problem. I hope this helps!

To supporters of the Blackfyre/Brightflame theory, I have a question for you that I've never seen discussed:

If JC didn't take charge of the boy until he was approx. 5 or 6, then do you think that from birth he was told that he was Aegon, the supposedly dead son of R&E? If he really was the child of Illyrio & Sara, I imagine Illyrio & Vary's plan would have to had to take shape very early in his infancy, possibly even before his birth. It couldn't have been something they just thought up when he was 4 or 5, because a child that age is old enough to consciously know and remember his own identity. How do you think this went down?

1 IMO I believe that him being the child of Illyrio and Sara is complete crackpot. There is no way in hell Illyrio would tell his son he's some one else's son, make him believe it, and give him up to a complete stranger to raise, even if Varys was my friend, he couldn't convince worth shit. Besides, why would he need to: Illyrio is a rich magistrate, Aegon would not need to ever Pentos if that was the case for any kind of training.

2Being a blackfyre would be a matter for someone and hoping he would grow up looking a hell Rhaegar or very, very close relations. A way too far a sell for my taste.

[Shagwell the mad jester]

I can do that, but you are going to have to explain to me where you going with this Occam's Razor

OK so the rebellion had been going on for about a year, everybody is Rebellion against him left and right and they are stream rolling everybody. All the present Targs knew that if they succeed they are through, any intelligent person can see that, even Elia Martell (she was frail of health but not dim witness).

In order to wipe out a line every must go (men ,women, children) dirty businesses but must be done. Elia cant leave because dorne might rebel as well and the Rebellion is barreling towards the king and his heirs. It is not a stretch that Varys had body double on hand for aegon (he's smart like that). So when Lannisters shows up and the Mad king open the door for them he know he only had maybe.....10- 15 minutes to make to Elia's quarters. It would not take much convincing for Elia to hand over Aegon she can clearly see the mayhem from her room, he know the tunnel better than any currently alive then and now having a few birds keeping him safe is not a stretch. He smuggle Tyrion out without much trouble so it possible.

Jon Snow tricked Stannis and Mance Raider with a baby swap, if he could do it Varys would have no problem. I hope this helps!

Read the entry. Occam's razor says, always take the explanation with the least problematic assertions. You are not doing that. You are inventing scenarios. Much of what you say doesn't have base in the text.

[Justin Amey]

Read the entry. Occam's razor says, always take the explanation with the least problematic assertions. You are not doing that. You are freely speculating. You are inventing scenarios. What you say doesn't have base in the text.

I'm inventing scenarios? :dunno: Well.....um....... :dunno: ........um...... :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: Good one.

My thing is I'm just making sense of Aegon's story to Tyrion (yes a very simple one, but one that no one believes) I didn't think I was making up anymore scenarios compared to all the other one that's one