Advanced Crackpottery - The Mance Enigma

[Lady Woodland]

As to the idea that Mance somehow knows Jon is Rhaegar/Lyanna's child over Ned's, my question is why would he even question it?

Mance does not know Ned, they've never met, and if the people closest to Ned don't question hus story, why would some guy he's never met question it?

It's not like lord's having bastards is uncommon, especially during war times. Ned was at war for about a year, more than enough time to produce a bastard.

So maybe Mance has or will figure it out if he and Jon ever start discussing Ned and Jon's lack of knowledge about his mother. But without that little clue I see no reason a perfect stranger would doubt the story presented.

Your'e kidding right,

Mance has said himself that he's visited WF several times when introduced to Jon, that's how he recognises him in the first place - he may not have had cosy one-on-one's with Ned but that does not preclude that he's observed the situation at WF & can figure out what's what, on meeting Jon he calls him the Bastard of WF or Lord Snow, IIRC (haven't got the passage at hand) but not "so you're Ned Stark's bastard" IIRC.

Also it's been heavily implied that Ned has been pretty much holed up in WF since the end of RR - he hasn't even spoke to Robert in the intervening years, so when whispers in his own House start about Ashara & Cat querying about Jon's mother, he pretty much squashes those questions flat.

When you say his "friends" who exactly are you talking about? his vassals & Bannermen? they really aren't his friends, he is their Liege Lord so they are hardly going to question Ned bringing home a bastard it's none of their business, although they might do it secretly, but for all we know the people closest to him may know some truths unless you believe everyone at the ToJ truly did die except HR who he also has apparently not seen since then.

However you bring up a good question "Why does nobody seem to be interested in what happened to Lyanna & ask so where did your bastard come from anyway Ned?" Keeping to himself seems to have been a good way to inhibit the gossip & protect Jon. Only those visiting WF would be able to see Jon & observe & draw their own conclusions, & Mance was among them.

[gregg22]

Mance does not know Ned, they've never met, and if the people closest to Ned don't question hus story, why would some guy he's never met question it?

When Mance was a member of the Night's Watch he was part of an escort to Winterfell for Lord Commander Qorgyle to meet with Ned Stark. He met Jon and Robb as boys.

[Dany Girl]

Even if he's technically met Ned, he did not know Ned. Ned and Mance were not buddies. The people closest to Ned (Jon and Robert) did not question Ned's story, so why would some dude who doesn't know Ned and his honor? War bastards seem pretty common, bastards in general are extremely common, so why would Mance have questions regarding Jon? He didn't know Lyanna, he barely met Ned. He would sneak into WF when they had parties, which was extremely rare. He'd play a musician, which Sansa says one hadn't come to WF in years. It's not like Mance was st WF all the time. He's only been there 2-3 times from my understanding. HE likely never interacted with the boys. He knows Jon by sight, not because they've met.

And as to the idea Ned became some hermit holed up in WF, that's just wrong. He was LP of the North, his place was in the north. He visited his bannermen at least a few times throughout the years, as well aa their visits to him. Cat remarks that he'd always take both Robb and Jon on his visits, or hhave them present when he hosted bannermen. It's one of the things she hated because he treated Jon the same as his heir.

And ya, he squashed gossip at WF, but what gossip there was (Ned loved Ashara) served to strengthen his story that Jon was his. Most people at WF think Jon is Ned+ Ashara. Not one person seems to question this, not Old Nan, not Rodrick Cassel, not any of the servants that have been at WF since Ned was a child. No one goes, "hey, Ned having a bastard while married seems fishy, wonder if he's Lyanna's instead?" No one. But somehow Mance is supposed to have put it all together with the extremely limited amount of interactions with Ned? Unlikely.

[Victarion Chainbreaker]

In AFFC Sam thinks about how Aemon Steelsong will be brave because he's Mance's son and Craster's grandson, and doesn't have Sam's craven blood. It's clearly about blood lineage (not about being Gilly's adopted son,) so either Mance or Dalla must have been fathered by Craster. Then in ADWD Val remarks about how Gilly's son is no kin to her, meaning it must be Mance who was fathered by Craster. This is corroborated by the stories of how the Night's Watch found young Mance out in the woods alone (presumably as an offering to the Others.)

For your theory to work, BR must be Craster's father (unless of course Sam has faulty information or Val lied.)

Why is everyone ignoring the possibility of Maester Aemon being Mance's Targaryen ancestor? His nice speech about 'what is honor worth when you hold a newborn in your arms' is a big hint that he has descendants.

For those who doubt what importance this could add to the story, I say motivation. Did Mance desert the Watch because he liked a cloak with bright colors? Really? The coat is symbolic of Targ heritage, and the Wise Woman who healed him and sewed the cloak also told him of his heritage and thus his potential to fulfill certain world-saving prophecies (creating TPTWP by uniting the Dragon and the Weirwood.) Mance deserted the Watch because he could better protect the realms of men by embracing these prophecies (he believes.)

For those moaning about another secret Targ theory, I have some bad news. You may hate secret Targs, but George f*cking loves them.

[Bael's Bastard]

Can you cite where in AFFC that comment is about Mance and Craster? I would think it a mix up on Sam's part, especially as I would not really expect him to have any inside knowledge about Mance's ancestry. As a reader, I have considered the possibility that Mance was descended from Craster. But I am not sure that is consistent or would fit with the story of how Mance ended up at the Wall.

[PrettyPig]

I missed that quote too - sure you aren't combining the two infants? Aemon = Mance's son; Monster = Craster's grandson

[HexMachina]

Can you cite where in AFFC that comment is about Mance and Craster? I would think it a mix up on Sam's part, especially as I would not really expect him to have any inside knowledge about Mance's ancestry. As a reader, I have considered the possibility that Mance was descended from Craster. But I am not sure that is consistent or would fit with the story of how Mance ended up at the Wall.

The quote is as posted above iirc "Mance's son and Craster's grandson" but you are right, there is no way Sam (or anyone else in the Watch for that matter) would.know Mance was descended from Craster even if he was. I think the quote means he is the son of Mance (biologically) and the grandson of Craster due to his "mother" (i.e. the maternal figure raising.him) being the daughter of Craster.

Apart from anything else, we know what Craster does with his male.children already (and no, I'm not talking abiut the show, its in the books too) so Mance can't be his

ETA: And I'm sure Mance is actually brought to Shadow Tower by a wildling after being fathered by a Crow, though I may have mixed uo two people

[Light a wight tonight]

It is in Ran's best interest to say so as it is a shocking theory.

How so? Everything gets discussed here and nothing said influences the books or book sales. You think that there's a "don't rock the boat" rule here? The boat gets rocked daily.

[Bael's Bastard]

The quote is as posted above iirc "Mance's son and Craster's grandson" but you are right, there is no way Sam (or anyone else in the Watch for that matter) would.know Mance was descended from Craster even if he was. I think the quote means he is the son of Mance (biologically) and the grandson of Craster due to his "mother" (i.e. the maternal figure raising.him) being the daughter of Craster.

Apart from anything else, we know what Craster does with his male.children already (and no, I'm not talking abiut the show, its in the books too) so Mance can't be his

ETA: And I'm sure Mance is actually brought to Shadow Tower by a wildling after being fathered by a Crow, though I may have mixed uo two people

I think it is Craster whose father was a crow (not to say Mance's isn't or couldn't be, I just don't think it is stated about him). Now that I think about it, though, I suppose Mance's story could still be consistent with Craster being his father if the mother had run away and joined another group of Wildlings, knowing the fate of male children. Maybe Bloodraven is Craster's father, and Craster is Mance's, lol.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Mance being Craster's son is problematic because Craster gives all of his sons to the Others. The only way that works is if a Night's Watch member years ago found the baby first and manged to keep him alive (without any milk!) long enough to get back to the Wall. Not likely.

Even if he's technically met Ned, he did not know Ned. Ned and Mance were not buddies. The people closest to Ned (Jon and Robert) did not question Ned's story, so why would some dude who doesn't know Ned and his honor? War bastards seem pretty common, bastards in general are extremely common, so why would Mance have questions regarding Jon? He didn't know Lyanna, he barely met Ned. He would sneak into WF when they had parties, which was extremely rare. He'd play a musician, which Sansa says one hadn't come to WF in years. It's not like Mance was st WF all the time. He's only been there 2-3 times from my understanding. HE likely never interacted with the boys. He knows Jon by sight, not because they've met.

And as to the idea Ned became some hermit holed up in WF, that's just wrong. He was LP of the North, his place was in the north. He visited his bannermen at least a few times throughout the years, as well aa their visits to him. Cat remarks that he'd always take both Robb and Jon on his visits, or hhave them present when he hosted bannermen. It's one of the things she hated because he treated Jon the same as his heir.

And ya, he squashed gossip at WF, but what gossip there was (Ned loved Ashara) served to strengthen his story that Jon was his. Most people at WF think Jon is Ned+ Ashara. Not one person seems to question this, not Old Nan, not Rodrick Cassel, not any of the servants that have been at WF since Ned was a child. No one goes, "hey, Ned having a bastard while married seems fishy, wonder if he's Lyanna's instead?" No one. But somehow Mance is supposed to have put it all together with the extremely limited amount of interactions with Ned? Unlikely.

If you think about it, it's actually the people who DO know Ned who don't question the story. Lyanna died of a fever. Jon is Ned's son. They know he's an honest man so they don't stop to think he might be lying. Cat, who is the most uniquely qualified character in the series to put the pieces together is too blinded by the pain of Ned's supposed betrayal to examine the facts objectively. It's only an outsider who would question it.

Being at Winterfell and noting the interactions between everyone without being influenced by any particular feelings regarding those who live there would give Mance a unique perspective on the situation. Also looking at the genetics, only one of the five trueborn children of Eddard Stark have his coloring. Makes it rather unlikely a kid he had with some random woman came out with the Stark look, don't you think? Arya's looking like Ned/Lyanna is enough on the surface for those who know all the players, but again an outsider might question it.

How many times in the series have servants questioned their masters? If the Lord of Winterfell says there will be no discussion, there will be no discussion. As much as anyone might privately wonder, they'd keep it to themselves. No one wants to risk losing a position at the castle that has a source of food and heat in the years-long winters. Not to mention no one wants to be the object of Ned's ire.

And you're forgetting the possible Bloodraven connection. Mance may very well have met BR at some point whether they are related or not.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

In AFFC Sam thinks about how Aemon Steelsong will be brave because he's Mance's son and Craster's grandson, and doesn't have Sam's craven blood.

<snip

For your theory to work, BR must be Craster's father.

Why is everyone ignoring the possibility of Maester Aemon being Mance's Targaryen ancestor? His nice speech about 'what is honor worth when you hold a newborn in your arms' is a big hint that he has descendants.

<snip

First of all, we must ask if Sam is a reliable narrator? Was he mixing up the two babies in this thoughts? Gilly's child is both Craster's son and his grandson. Whereas Aemon is Mance's. It's also possible that Sam is mixing up his facts with regard to Mance having been Wildling born and Craster being the first Wildling man Sam has met. His mind may be forging connections that don't exist.

It's possible for BR to be Craster's father. Right place, right time.

Why does everyone assume Aemon was talking about himself? What if he was talking about Bloodraven, a man he knew who did desert, possibly for love and who may have held his newborn son in his arms, thus triggering the desertion? We don't have a lot of evidence that maesters do much ranging with the Watch, which leaves Aemon very little opportunity to father a son with a Wilding woman.

[Lady Woodland]

How so? Everything gets discussed here and nothing said influences the books or book sales. You think that there's a "don't rock the boat" rule here? The boat gets rocked daily.

Sorry ACOG is correct, Ran has banned the theory that Mance is Rhaegar, he has deleted two whole threads, & delete's posts like this that object to said deletions as well. I might also add that this one will probably disappear also & that polite objections & queries from the posters have been met with silence or

"don't waste my time with these ridiculous theories" when questioned. That would be called limiting freedom of speech I believe.

[HexMachina]

Or banning fan fiction, which such theories are, since they contradict what Martin has said. And Martin doesnt allow/condone fan fiction, whivh is why Ran and the mods delete them

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Sorry ACOG is correct, Ran has banned the theory that Mance is Rhaegar, he has deleted two whole threads, & delete's posts like this that object to said deletions as well. I might also add that this one will probably disappear also & that polite objections & queries from the posters have been met with silence or

"don't waste my time with these ridiculous theories" when questioned. That would be called limiting freedom of speech I believe.

I don't think that's the reason for the deleting of threads. To be honest, I've seen WORST crackpot around.

The problem with threads like those is that people get a bit "hot-blooded" and start calling names, and that's how the latest ended up.

For instance, one thing is to say:

"Well, I think Jon and Stannis are lovers, this is my evidence"

"Well, this is counter-evidence"

"Ah, ok, then".

Another one is

"Jon and Stannis are lovers"

"Why?"

"Because GRRM breaks tropes and because that would be completely unexpected and because I think it is and you all like to think inside the box"

"You are a moron"

"Yeah, I'm better than you all, I see something you can't!".

This is how mostly crackpot theories end.

Also, Ran said that Rhaegar is dead and he's not Mance. that should be the end. It's the closest thing we have to the Author's own word. Yet, some still insisted "well, it's true because Ran didn't want us to speak about it". That would be like saying "no, the author is wrong". I remember the HP times when JKR said "no" about Harry/Hermione. Yet, some insisted that JKR was wrong because she hasn't really understood the relationship between Harry and Hermione. Yes, the AUTHOR of the BOOK, the one who CREATED the characters didn't "get" their relationship. That's being stubborn for the sake of it. It's impossible to debate with people like that.

[Light a wight tonight]

Sorry ACOG is correct, Ran has banned the theory that Mance is Rhaegar, he has deleted two whole threads, & delete's posts like this that object to said deletions as well. I might also add that this one will probably disappear also & that polite objections & queries from the posters have been met with silence or

"don't waste my time with these ridiculous theories" when questioned. That would be called limiting freedom of speech I believe.

It's very unusual for threads to get deleted. Every so often one will get locked if it gets nasty. I have no explanation as to why those were deleted. Maybe somebody just pissed Ran off to the extent that he over-reacted.

As to "limiting free speech", I don't think it's required to provide space to everybody on a privately-owned forum. There are other venues where those views can be posted.

[Bael's Bastard]

Mance being Craster's son is problematic because Craster gives all of his sons to the Others. The only way that works is if a Night's Watch member years ago found the baby first and manged to keep him alive (without any milk!) long enough to get back to the Wall. Not likely.

Craster giving his son the the Night's Watch is obviously not gonna happen. It would almost certainly require a wife/daughter of Craster to have run away while pregnant. Perhaps not likely, but not necessarily impossible.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Or banning fan fiction, which such theories are, since they contradict what Martin has said. And Martin doesnt allow/condone fan fiction, whivh is why Ran and the mods delete them

Theories are not fan fiction. The term "fan fiction" has an actual definition and that's not it.

And I think the main reason all the Mance = Rhaegar threads started getting deleted was because a new one was being posted almost every day!

By the way, if anyone wants to discuss the thread topic, that'd be great.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Craster giving his son the the Night's Watch is obviously not gonna happen. It would almost certainly require a wife/daughter of Craster to have run away while pregnant. Perhaps not likely, but not necessarily impossible.

True. Quite a ways to run while pregnant but it would be possible. She'd have to find sanctuary (so to speak) with other Wildlings until the baby was old enough to be weaned and then leave it near the Wall when she was sure it would be found in time. That requires keeping track of the ranging schedules, or getting that info from someone else.

If one of Craster's wives ran off though, don't you think he might go after her and the thieving rat he thinks took her? It doesn't seem to occur to him that one of them might leave on her own.

[Bael's Bastard]

True. Quite a ways to run while pregnant but it would be possible. She'd have to find sanctuary (so to speak) with other Wildlings until the baby was old enough to be weaned and then leave it near the Wall when she was sure it would be found in time. That requires keeping track of the ranging schedules, or getting that info from someone else.

If one of Craster's wives ran off though, don't you think he might go after her and the thieving rat he thinks took her? It doesn't seem to occur to him that one of them might leave on her own.

IIRC Mance was with a group of Wildling raiders that were executed by the Watch, and he was brought to the Wall from there. Is there another account that says he was left at the Wall? If Mance were a son of Craster (and I haven't settled on that or any other explanation), I would think his mother came across some other Wildlings in her escape. I am not sure the Watch would knowingly bring or allow a son of Craster's to be brought to and remain at the Wall if they knew his identity, as they seem to have a relationship with him, and to look the other way on the things he does. And apparently, Craster's mother tried to bring him to the Wall when he was born (his father was a crow), and they were chased away.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

IIRC Mance was with a group of Wildling raiders that were executed by the Watch, and he was brought to the Wall from there. Is there another account that says he was left at the Wall? If Mance were a son of Craster (and I haven't settled on that or any other explanation), I would think his mother came across some other Wildlings in her escape. I am not sure the Watch would knowingly bring or allow a son of Craster's to be brought to and remain at the Wall if they knew his identity, as they seem to have a relationship with him, and to look the other way on the things he does. And apparently, Craster's mother tried to bring him to the Wall when he was born (his father was a crow), and they were chased away.

Well I was thinking maybe she left him near the wall when she knew a ranging party would be coming by soon and find him. If they just find a baby/toddler out in the cold and they can't find a mother nearby, they'd have no choice but to take him with.

I'm wondering if any group of Wildlings would accept one of Craster's women. I know he doesn't have an army or anything, but I'd think there's some kind of Wildling ettiquette that might demand she be returned to him. Of course I could maybe see her begging someone to keep her son so that he wouldn't be sacrificed.