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Aegon's claim


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191 replies to this topic

#1 Here Shaggydog

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 03:58 PM

So many people refer to him as Faegon. What evidence is there that he is a fake?

#2 Lost Melnibonean

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 04:09 PM

Oh great! A brand new topic!

Try this...

aegon blackfyre site:asoiaf.westeros.org

#3 Fire Eater

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 04:16 PM

What evidence is there that he is real? We only have the word of Varys and Illyrio, two proven liars. If you go buy appearance, many people in the Free Cities have Valyrian ancestry with plenty of people in Lys sharing similar coloring to Aegon, like Serra, Illyrio's late wife who shares similar descriptions to Aegon such as big blue eyes.

 

Besides, it is hinted at by clues in the text and GRRM himself that Dany will fight Aegon. She would have to have a legitimate reason to fight a boy who is supposedly her brother's son.


Edited by Fire Eater, 05 June 2014 - 04:17 PM.


#4 Here Shaggydog

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 04:17 PM

So he's a Blackfyre

#5 Disputatious

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 04:18 PM

Fire Eater:

Provided that he is not for real; otherwise she has a good reason to marry him.

Edited by Disputatious, 05 June 2014 - 04:18 PM.


#6 The Doctor's Consort

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 04:18 PM

Fake, or real, that is the question.



#7 WalkerDragon

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 04:36 PM

What evidence is there that he is real? We only have the word of Varys and Illyrio, two proven liars. If you go buy appearance, many people in the Free Cities have Valyrian ancestry with plenty of people in Lys sharing similar coloring to Aegon, like Serra, Illyrio's late wife who shares similar descriptions to Aegon such as big blue eyes.

 

 

That's not how it goes. You have to prove him being fake. We don't have to prove him being real. That's how the law works so i think it should apply here. 

 

Anyway there is as much evidence pointing at him being fake as their is him being real. The only difference is he believe's he is real. My main problem with Faegon theory is if he was a Blackfyre, what would be the point of putting him on the Throne when he himself believes to be Rhaegar's son. Vary's and Illyrio can't just say "BTW you're a Blackfyre"

 

Other than that i only have minor problems with Faegon theories 



#8 Rhaegar Targaryen II

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 06:11 PM

there is no real evidence just theories so pick a side my friend. 



#9 Lady Blizzardborn

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 06:55 PM

there is no real evidence just theories so pick a side my friend. 

:agree:  Or you could be like me and figure either way the story will be great so it doesn't much matter.



#10 aryagonnakill#2

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 07:05 PM

 

That's not how it goes. You have to prove him being fake. We don't have to prove him being real. That's how the law works so i think it should apply here. 

 

Anyway there is as much evidence pointing at him being fake as their is him being real. The only difference is he believe's he is real. My main problem with Faegon theory is if he was a Blackfyre, what would be the point of putting him on the Throne when he himself believes to be Rhaegar's son. Vary's and Illyrio can't just say "BTW you're a Blackfyre"

 

Other than that i only have minor problems with Faegon theories 

Thats not true at all.  If you are declared legally dead, as Aegon was, it is your job to prove you are you, not the courts job to prove you are not, and it is not easy to prove.  Secondly, there is no evidence pointing to him being real, so saying there is as much evidence of him being real as there is fake is not true.  By evidence I mean foreshadowing in the books etc, not Jon con saying Ilyrio told me this was Aegon, and Varys telling kevin Aegon is here.  Those are claims, not evidence.



#11 Lord Damian

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 07:24 PM

Perception is reality. if he is percieved real, then he is real. If he is real, his claim is superior to all others alive, including Dany, 3 dragons or not.



#12 TheOldWolf

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 07:25 PM

Black or red a dragon is still a dragon

#13 Leap

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 07:36 PM

Perception is reality. if he is percieved real, then he is real. If he is real, his claim is superior to all others alive, including Dany, 3 dragons or not.

The phrase you're looking for is ''for all intents and purposes''. 

 

Perception is not reality. 

 

 

That's not how it goes. You have to prove him being fake. We don't have to prove him being real. That's how the law works so i think it should apply here. 

 

Anyway there is as much evidence pointing at him being fake as their is him being real. The only difference is he believe's he is real. My main problem with Faegon theory is if he was a Blackfyre, what would be the point of putting him on the Throne when he himself believes to be Rhaegar's son. Vary's and Illyrio can't just say "BTW you're a Blackfyre"

 

Other than that i only have minor problems with Faegon theories 

Occam's razor dictates that we would assume he is fake, given the near ubiquitously accepted premise - confirmed by multiple POV's (that Aegon is dead), and given that any evidence to the contrary is somewhat spurious through it's association with Varys, a suspected blackfyre and proven liar.



#14 Fire Eater

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 08:37 PM

 

That's not how it goes. You have to prove him being fake. We don't have to prove him being real. That's how the law works so i think it should apply here.

 

Thats not true at all.  If you are declared legally dead, as Aegon was, it is your job to prove you are you, not the courts job to prove you are not, and it is not easy to prove.  Secondly, there is no evidence pointing to him being real, so saying there is as much evidence of him being real as there is fake is not true.  By evidence I mean foreshadowing in the books etc, not Jon con saying Ilyrio told me this was Aegon, and Varys telling kevin Aegon is here.  Those are claims, not evidence.

What he said.

 


Anyway there is as much evidence pointing at him being fake as their is him being real. The only difference is he believe's he is real. My main problem with Faegon theory is if he was a Blackfyre, what would be the point of putting him on the Throne when he himself believes to be Rhaegar's son. Vary's and Illyrio can't just say "BTW you're a Blackfyre"

There is more evidence if you count foreshadowing and clues, that point to him being fake. Varys and Illyrio's plan is put him on the IT. They are practical enough to know the realm wouldn't rise for a Blackfyre, but for Rhaegar's son, yes. It doesn't matter if he doesn't know so long as he sits the IT.



#15 TallTyrionLannister

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 08:38 PM

Thats not true at all.  If you are declared legally dead, as Aegon was, it is your job to prove you are you, not the courts job to prove you are not, and it is not easy to prove.  Secondly, there is no evidence pointing to him being real, so saying there is as much evidence of him being real as there is fake is not true.  By evidence I mean foreshadowing in the books etc, not Jon con saying Ilyrio told me this was Aegon, and Varys telling kevin Aegon is here.  Those are claims, not evidence.

 

And yet, that's still more evidence than the very loose and poorly put together Blackfyre theories.

 

We have an explanation for the dead child so many thought was the real Aegon, and the claims of Varys etc is far more evidence than tryhard subtext dug up by people who really don't want him to be real. 

 

Burden of proof is "innocent until proven guilty" not "guilty until proven innocent". Re: Burden of Proof fallacy 

 

 

 

Occam's razor dictates that we would assume he is fake, given the near ubiquitously accepted premise - confirmed by multiple POV's (that Aegon is dead), and given that any evidence to the contrary is somewhat spurious through it's association with Varys, a suspected blackfyre and proven liar.

 

 

 

Suspected on very very shaky grounds and absolutely not a proven liar. Even if he has lied before, this is in itself a logical fallacy, believing that X person did Y here so therefore they must do Y all the time. Especially given the fact that we're lead to believe his other half-truths were to help the cause of Aegon.

 

Not to mention that by invoking Occam's Razor you have essentially signed the death warrant of the very tinly stretched Blackfyre theory and held up Aegon as a true Targ, the most uncomplex and likely scenario given current evidence.  



#16 TallTyrionLannister

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 08:43 PM

 

What he said.

 

There is more evidence if you count foreshadowing and clues, that point to him being fake. Varys and Illyrio's plan is put him on the IT. They are practical enough to know the realm wouldn't rise for a Blackfyre, but for Rhaegar's son, yes. It doesn't matter if he doesn't know so long as he sits the IT.

 

Again, there is absolutely zero proof that he is not Aegon, only what SOME may consider to be foreshadowing and clues. This does not count as proof, and the fact that this is someone who does look very much like a Targaryen who happens to be the same age Aegon would be, with a very plausible story from someone we know does not straight up-lie (re: Varys deals in half-truths) claiming him to indeed be Aegon shows that there is proof, strong reasons to believe, that Aegon is Aegon Targaryen. Seeing as how we have actual proof, however scant it may be, that this is Aegon, while all we have are far fetched theories based on subtext that he ISNT a Targ, I think it's safe to say that presenting the chance of him not being Aegon as being on equal grounds as the BF theory is bogus at best.


Edited by TallTyrionLannister, 05 June 2014 - 08:48 PM.


#17 Leap

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 08:45 PM

 

Suspected on very very shaky grounds and absolutely not a proven liar. Even if he has lied before, this is in itself a logical fallacy, believing that X person did Y here so therefore they must do Y all the time. Especially given the fact that we're lead to believe his other half-truths were to help the cause of Aegon.

 

Not to mention that by invoking Occam's Razor you have essentially signed the death warrant of the very tinly stretched Blackfyre theory and held up Aegon as a true Targ, the most uncomplex and likely scenario given current evidence.  

Except I didn't commit that logical fallacy, I said that because he is a completely untrustworthy source, any evidence given by him is not to be counted. Not quite the same thing.

 

Well, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here. I think it far more likely that Aegon is not a Targaryen. 



#18 TallTyrionLannister

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 08:52 PM

Except I didn't commit that logical fallacy, I said that because he is a completely untrustworthy source, any evidence given by him is not to be counted. Not quite the same thing.

 

Well, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here. I think it far more likely that Aegon is not a Targaryen. 

 

I started another thread about this yesterday, but in the end I don't think we, the fans, will ever be given an answer. 

 

I think Aegon will win the throne and be usurped by Dany or Stannis without the truth ever being revealed, leaving the Aegon story as a lesson in Varys "power resides where men believe that it does" philosophy, and perhaps once and for all putting to rest any claims that birthright > right of conquest. 



#19 FerociousVeldtRoarer

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 09:01 PM

And yet, that's still more evidence than the very loose and poorly put together Blackfyre theories.
 
We have an explanation for the dead child so many thought was the real Aegon, and the claims of Varys etc is far more evidence than tryhard subtext dug up by people who really don't want him to be real. 
 
Burden of proof is "innocent until proven guilty" not "guilty until proven innocent". Re: Burden of Proof fallacy

 

First, "Varys said and Varys said and Varys said" is not evidence. It all just hangs on one person's words, and not impartial by any measure, but active player for Team Young Griff. Other than his claims, what else is there? Young Griff's kind of Valyrian looks. A guy looking for that kind of thing can find a whore with such features in a cheap brothel in Selhorys, so it isn't that unique.

 

And we're not talking about "guilty" or "innocent", we're talking about "Rhaegar's son" or "not Rhaegar's son". And I know of no human rights catalog where "the right to be considered Rhaegar's miraculously resurrected son until proven otherwise" is one of them. 



#20 WalkerDragon

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Posted 05 June 2014 - 09:30 PM

 

What he said.

 

There is more evidence if you count foreshadowing and clues, that point to him being fake. Varys and Illyrio's plan is put him on the IT. They are practical enough to know the realm wouldn't rise for a Blackfyre, but for Rhaegar's son, yes. It doesn't matter if he doesn't know so long as he sits the IT.

 

But then there is no point for the whole thing anyway if everyone thinks Aegon is a Targ. Blackfyre's have the same blood as Targ so the only reason for them to win the throne would be to seat a Blackfyre on the throne that everyone knows is named Blackfyre.