Rickard's Southron Ambitions V.2

[Hippocras]

This is an extension of a previous thread which ran its course.

The intent here is to explore the possible relationship between Bran's vision of a pregnant woman praying at the heart tree of Winterfell for a son to avenge her, and Rickard Stark's desire to build better connections with great houses south of the Neck through marriages.

Bran's vision was reverse chronological, and the pregnant woman scene took place after Dunk and Egg's visit to Winterfell to serve Lord Beron Stark. That visit was in 212AC or later, and will be the subject of the novella The She-Wolves of Winterfell. We can conclude that the pregant woman was someone who was a Stark or married to one, and who gave birth some time between 213AC and 261AC when Brandon Stark was born.

Based on the relatively complete family tree, the candidates are Lorra Royce II, Arya Flint, her daughers Branda and Lyarra (Rickard's wife and cousin), Alysanne Stark, Berena Stark, Lyanne Glover, Melantha Blackwood or Marna Locke (Rickard's mother). We know nothing of most of these ladies - only Arya Flint has been mentioned in the Song of Ice and Fire, however Arya had no sons so if her, her prayer was not answered.

Of the others on the list, Melantha Blackwood is the most interesting. She would have been a close relative of Bloodraven. The feud between Brackens and Blackwoods has been mentioned many times in the books. The time span when the vision might have originated was also the time when several Blackfyre rebellions took place and the Brackens sided with the Blackfyres, while Bloodraven sided with the Targaryens. This provides some connection to events in the South.

That time period is also just after Dagon Greyjoy invaded the North, and Raymun Redbeard breached the Wall with his wildling army not too long after that. Many Starks died in these conflicts, including the husbands and sons of the ladies of Winterfell. Also, both the Ironborn and the wildlings are known to rape and/or steal women when they invaded and might theoretically have raped a Stark. Related to this, The Citadel says:

The Seven Kingdoms were seemingly left to fend for themselves against Lord Dagon Greyjoy and his ironborn reavers troubling all the lands on the western coast, as King Aerys I ignored the trouble so he could be closeted with his books, while Prince Rhaegal was said to be so mad as to dance naked in the halls of the Red Keep and Prince Maekar so angry at his brother and his advisors that he sat and brooded at Summerhall. Some blamed Lord Bloodraven, the Hand of the King, for this state of affairs, while others claimed his attention was focused on Tyrosh where the sons of Daemon Blackfyre and Bittersteel plotted another attempt to seize the Iron Throne

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/Concordance/Section/2.2.4./

These events are the background which most likely led to Rickard Stark's desire to build alliances with the High Lords of the South. He was certainly driven in part by a need for stronger alliances to have better protection against threats such as the Ironborn and the wildlings.

His attitude towards the Targaryens themselves before Lyanna was "kidnapped" are harder to determine, but at the very least it seems likely that he distrusted Targaryen rule. They had not been helpful in defending the North against its greatest threats, so he knew he needed to seek help elsewhere.

Meanwhile, the Targaryens kept asking for the North's assistance in defending their rule against the Blackfyres. The last time was the War of the Ninepenny Kings, when several of the High Lords became friends. These friendships were a factor in the network of alliances that sprang up after the war.

[Hippocras]

I should add that the Ghost of High Heart is possibly connected to the Blackwoods - Bloodraven shares her red eyes and white skin and she lives not far from Raventree. She is definitely connected to Jenny of Oldstones and the Tragedy of Summerhall - so IF connected also to Bloodraven that provides a thread that could help with the interpretation of the Stark-Targaryen dynamics.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Minor note here, I think it's Banda, not Branda. Could be wrong though. I only saw the tree for a few minutes. Could have sworn I saved a copy on my computer but I haven't been able to find it so I can't check.

[Hippocras]

Minor note here, I think it's Banda, not Branda. Could be wrong though. I only saw the tree for a few minutes. Could have sworn I saved a copy on my computer but I haven't been able to find it so I can't check.

There's a PDF posted on the other thread if you want to find it there.

It is Branda - the female version of the family name Brandon.

[Hippocras]

Marna Locke is also an extremely interesting candidate for the pregnant lady IMO. She was Rickard Stark's mother, so one of the key women who might have influenced his thinking directly.

House Locke is sworn to House Bolton. Her desire for revenge might potentially be related to the current events of the books, and the reasons why the Boltons so quickly betrayed the Starks. This could be part of why the show chose House Locke to feature when they needed a Bolton man to replace Lorch.

I am wondering if Marna Locke was a product of rape, during either the Greyjoy or Redbeard attacks on the North, and was legitimized by her family. Or she might have been wronged by the Boltons, overlords of her House in some way.

Roose was specifically mentioned for his involvement in RR, because he wanted to kill Barristan Selmy. This has me thinking it would be great if Barristan Selmy was involved in the final downfall of the Boltons.

[Hippocras]

Is it a coincidence that Houses Ryswell and Bracken both have horse sigils? Are these two houses related? If so that would add an interesting dynamic regarding Melantha Blackwood and Bloodraven, connected to the frequent mention of the Bracken and Blackwood feuds.

[SerGrahamando ofUttershill]

House Locke is sworn to House Bolton.

Can you give a source for this? I was under the impression that House Locke was an independent Lordly house, just not a particularly important or powerful one. Doesn't Lord Manderly claim that the Locke 's will take their lead from him when talking to Davos?

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Can you give a source for this? I was under the impression that House Locke was an independent Lordly house, just not a particularly important or powerful one. Doesn't Lord Manderly claim that the Locke 's will take their lead from him when talking to Davos?

If House Locke is a Northern house they would presently be sworn to Bolton because Bolton is the Warden of the North. On paper the whole North is sworn to House Bolton because House Stark is no more. Prior to the events of the series, House Locke was sworn to the Starks, I believe.

[Hippocras]

If House Locke is a Northern house they would presently be sworn to Bolton because Bolton is the Warden of the North. On paper the whole North is sworn to House Bolton because House Stark is no more. Prior to the events of the series, House Locke was sworn to the Starks, I believe.

This might be why yes. It is hard to find information on which minor houses were underlings of which major ones before the Wo5K. I had the impression Locke was a house sworn to Bolton even then.

We do know that these smaller houses are not all just sworn to the High Lord (Starks) though. There are sub-groups. Just like Baelish in the Vale was a minor house under House Corbray until Littlefinger.

[Dana Holland]

house hightower has houses under it and they are under the banner of house Tyrell IMO I may be wrong its not uncommon especially in a place as large as the north

[Hippocras]

house hightower has houses under it and they are under the banner of house Tyrell IMO I may be wrong its not uncommon especially in a place as large as the north

Yes. I am pretty sure all of the regions have the same sort of tree structure, with minor houses sworn to major ones, and major ones sworn to the High Lord and protector of X

[SerGrahamando ofUttershill]

The Lockes of Oldcastle do not owe fealty to the Dreadfort until Roose becomes Warden. At the Greenfork, were Roose suspiciously put other house's troops in the front line, Ser Donnel Locke is captured. Locke men are "caught" on the wrong side of the Trident by Ser Gregor and Ser Donnel is killed at the RW. Doesn't seem like Roose thinks they are his.

Also, the fact that there are a few knights in the family implies that they follow the 7, like the Manderlys. Oldcastle is also quite a lot closer to White Harbour than to the Dreadfort.

[Hippocras]

The Lockes of Oldcastle do not owe fealty to the Dreadfort until Roose becomes Warden. At the Greenfork, were Roose suspiciously put other house's troops in the front line, Ser Donnel Locke is captured. Locke men are "caught" on the wrong side of the Trident by Ser Gregor and Ser Donnel is killed at the RW. Doesn't seem like Roose thinks they are his.

Also, the fact that there are a few knights in the family implies that they follow the 7, like the Manderlys. Oldcastle is also quite a lot closer to White Harbour than to the Dreadfort.

Interesting, thanks. So Marna was maybe more like a Manderly, leading to Rickard having a CULTURAL interest in the South maybe.

[Minstral]

house hightower has houses under it and they are under the banner of house Tyrell IMO I may be wrong its not uncommon especially in a place as large as the north

It's common as opposed to uncommon. The Rowans have/had a whole slew of minor houses sworn to them (the Osgrey's and Webber, perhaps the other families that Lady Webber mentioned). Landed knights and other minor lords that could be just as small as Baelish, very much like the Stouts sworn to the Dustins.

[LordBloodraven]

I think the pregnant lady is Serena Stark, Rickon Stark's daughter and Edric Stark's wife. She, herself, should have been Lady of Winterfell as she's the daughter of the heir, Rickon. But it seems that Rickon's two daughter were bypassed in favour of his brothers, Edric, Jonnel, Barth, Brandon.

Imagine if Rickon's daughter marries his brother Edric just so as to reunite these two claims. And let's say Edric dies early or joins the Blackfyres (as suggested by Lord Varys) and their children are passed over in favour of his brother. She would have been a very bitter woman and would be one of the She-Wolf that will try to take Winterfell and the North through her children.

[Hippocras]

I think the pregnant lady is Serena Stark, Rickon Stark's daughter and Edric Stark's wife. She, herself, should have been Lady of Winterfell as she's the daughter of the heir, Rickon. But it seems that Rickon's two daughter were bypassed in favour of his brothers, Edric, Jonnel, Barth, Brandon.

Imagine if Rickon's daughter marries his brother Edric just so as to reunite these two claims. And let's say Edric dies early or joins the Blackfyres (as suggested by Lord Varys) and their children are passed over in favour of his brother. She would have been a very bitter woman and would be one of the She-Wolf that will try to take Winterfell and the North through her children.

Isn't she too early? The vision was reverse chronological. It took place after Dunk was there around 212 or later to serve Beron.

Also IMO it doesn't make sense. If you look at the families her children married in to, they are some of the most fiercely loyal ones in the North.

[Elkrider]

On a slightly different tangent regarding Southron Ambitions...

Lord Rickard sending Ned to foster with Jon Arryn at the Vale, one of the North's long-term enemies, is generally regarded to be part of his plan to boost up southern alliances. You know what other Northman fostered in the Vale? Domeric Bolton, at the Redfort. What bothers me about this is that Roose Bolton doesn't seem to have been pleased with the results of Domeric's fostering--he says that he was to soft and trusting. Roose does not seem to be the type to willingly send his son and heir to foster down south. So why did he do it?

I think that part of Southron Ambitions may have been to beef up alliances between the bannerman of North and other regions as well. There is a certain parallel in Ned fostering with Jon Arryn at the Lord Paramount level, and Domeric Bolton fostering with the Redforts on the level immediately below. My suggestion is that Rickard may have ordered or strongly suggested that Domeric be fostered in the Vale, leading to Domeric not being enough of a Bolton/too trusting-- and his death. That would put a rather interesting twist on the Bolton betrayal of the Starks.

The previous version of this thread went over the frequency of lords marrying outside their region. Have we ever gone over who fostered whom in Westeros, and where? It may provide an interesting topic of discussion. This theory in part depends on fostering outside your region being uncommon, especially for a lower level House, who would likely have to ask permission from their LP, to a House you have no other ties with.

It also depends on Domeric being old enough to foster while Rickard was still alive. Roose's comment that ,"Not even Lord Rickard's daughter could outrace him" has spawned guesswork about his age and which Lord Rickard Roose was referring to. If Domeric was concurrent with Lyanna, then this theory works perfectly. The age of fostering can be quite young, so he could still be younger than her if Lord Rickard arranged the fostering as one of the last things he ever did.

[Bryden Tully]

Didn't house Royce already have ties to the Starks before Ned arriving in the Vale, as Cat mentions when she's discussing the succession. The thing about the Southron Ambitions I never understood was why it hadn't been attempted before-I mean surely if a Lord has two/three children he could marry two off to vassal house and then marry one to an other noble house

[Minstral]

Didn't house Royce already have ties to the Starks before Ned arriving in the Vale, as Cat mentions when she's discussing the succession. The thing about the Southron Ambitions I never understood was why it hadn't been attempted before-I mean surely if a Lord has two/three children he could marry two off to vassal house and then marry one to an other noble house

The cadet branch of Royce has confirmed connections to the Starks in that its head marries a daughter of Winterfell and their descendants would marry other notable lords. The main branch appears to be a very pro Stark house in the Vale for unknown reasons (that they trace their line from the First Men or that they had other possible connections).

[Hippocras]

There are two Lorra Royces who became Stark ladies. Then further down the chain was when the Stark daughter married a Royce. So the connections are deep there.

@Elkrider

Domeric Bolton is a very interesting point. I am not convinced that Roose cares all that much about his son dying. He seem more bemused by Ramsay's behaviour than angry. But it might be relevant in some other way that Domeric was in the Vale. It might hint that the family he fostered with will be a problem for LF's schemes in the Vale, and might be Bolton spies.