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[Spoilers All (I think? Sure)] Tattered Prince Identity


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48 replies to this topic

#1 Archmaester Blazfemur

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:26 PM

More of a question than anything. My apologies in advance if you thought this was a theory or whatnot.

 

Are the timelines off, that The Tattered Prince couldnt be Gerion Lannister? I know it's a longshot but, clearly TTP is westerosi based on his language and style compared to those of essos. He appears to have been there "awhile," and also appears to have been exiled.

 

Again, zero backing to this, looking to close this thread up real quick, is it possible? Or not a chance.



#2 sifth

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:32 PM

More of a question than anything. My apologies in advance if you thought this was a theory or whatnot.

 

Are the timelines off, that The Tattered Prince couldnt be Gerion Lannister? I know it's a longshot but, clearly TTP is westerosi based on his language and style compared to those of essos. He appears to have been there "awhile," and also appears to have been exiled.

 

Again, zero backing to this, looking to close this thread up real quick, is it possible? Or not a chance.

 

Tyrion either meets or glimpses him in A Dance with Dragons, it's been a while since I read the book.

 

So unless Gerion's appearance has changed greatly I doubt this is true.



#3 TheBlackFlame

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:36 PM

More of a question than anything. My apologies in advance if you thought this was a theory or whatnot.

 

Are the timelines off, that The Tattered Prince couldnt be Gerion Lannister? I know it's a longshot but, clearly TTP is westerosi based on his language and style compared to those of essos. He appears to have been there "awhile," and also appears to have been exiled.

 

Again, zero backing to this, looking to close this thread up real quick, is it possible? Or not a chance.

 

I can think of tons of reason we can conclude he is not Gerion Lannister. First of which being he's dead and there is no evidence anywhere in the text that he is in fact alive as much as some of the passive-aggressive fan fic authors on this site may not like hearing it. So for this hypothesis to even reach theory stage you first have to prove Gerion Lannister is alive. Until you've proved that there is simply no way to prove any of your other assertions. 


Edited by TheBlackFlame, 19 June 2014 - 08:37 PM.


#4 TheBlackFlame

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:45 PM

 

Tyrion either meets or glimpses him in A Dance with Dragons, it's been a while since I read the book.

 

So unless Gerion's appearance has changed greatly I doubt this is true.

 

Not to argue against myself here but that doesn't prove anything. Gerion left for Valyria how long ago? At least 20 years and the only recollections Tyrion has of him were from when he was child. So Tyrion not recognizing him is inconclusive. That being said I still don't buy it.


Edited by TheBlackFlame, 19 June 2014 - 08:46 PM.


#5 Archmaester Blazfemur

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 08:55 PM

 

Tyrion either meets or glimpses him in A Dance with Dragons, it's been a while since I read the book.

 

So unless Gerion's appearance has changed greatly I doubt this is true.

 

I dont recall him ever coming into contact with him at all to be honest. Thats me though, you could very well be right.

 

 

 

I can think of tons of reason we can conclude he is not Gerion Lannister. First of which being he's dead and there is no evidence anywhere in the text that he is in fact alive as much as some of the passive-aggressive fan fic authors on this site may not like hearing it. So for this hypothesis to even reach theory stage you first have to prove Gerion Lannister is alive. Until you've proved that there is simply no way to prove any of your other assertions. 

 

 

can you elaborate a few? and honestly, my point wasnt "what people think" but rather "evidence to support the fact he wouldnt be" sort of view. not to sound offensive, i mean none in the slightest. i can fully accept he isnt gerion lannister, im not formulating a theory or anything of the sort, not even a hypothesis. it's never mentioned he died, if i recall correctly. then again it's been so long, its minute that he'd be alive as well. however if he went into exile (like possible sandor/gravedigger theories), as well as became anonymous and beared no sigil (he wears tattered rags), no one would assume him lannister in essos

 

 

 

Not to argue against myself here but that doesn't prove anything. Gerion left for Valyria how long ago? At least 20 years and the only recollections Tyrion has of him were from when he was child. So Tyrion not recognizing him is inconclusive. That being said I still don't buy it.

 

Nothing to sell here, sir, there's nothing to buy. No debates, no nothing. Just looking for evidence that would disprove him being Gerion is all. He's described as an older gentleman with long white hair, blonde can always fade to white, he appears westerosi, in mannerisms and fighting style. to someone who doesnt know him too well, one would conclude the possibility, even remote. i simply ask for something that would confirm him not to be, or if there is in fact anything, that would.



#6 Archmaester Blazfemur

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 09:01 PM

it's said that the windblown wasn't that old of a party, i could be wrong in that assumption.

 

timelinewise, TTP said he fought in the war of the ninepenny kings, correct? (Elder Brother also said he did, side note here) I guess my questioning would be, in the respect to time, what the structure of it all happened (Gerion leaves, then war of ninepenny kings, then formation of the windblown?) is that out of order?

 



#7 Tyrus Martell

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 09:10 PM



Nothing to sell here, sir, there's nothing to buy. No debates, no nothing. Just looking for evidence that would disprove him being Gerion is all. He's described as an older gentleman with long white hair, blonde can always fade to white, he appears westerosi, in mannerisms and fighting style. to someone who doesnt know him too well, one would conclude the possibility, even remote. i simply ask for something that would confirm him not to be, or if there is in fact anything, that would.

 

It is mentioned several times the Tattered Prince is Pentoshi, especially during his origin story of how he was nominated to lead Pentos but left the city before he had to go through with it.



#8 Bael's Bastard

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 09:37 PM

IIRC Gerion's bastard daughter would be 12 or 13, so he hasn't been gone long enough to be TTP, among other things.

#9 Archmaester Blazfemur

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 09:50 PM

 

It is mentioned several times the Tattered Prince is Pentoshi, especially during his origin story of how he was nominated to lead Pentos but left the city before he had to go through with it.

 

this, this is the kind of information im looking for.

 

 

IIRC Gerion's bastard daughter would be 12 or 13, so he hasn't been gone long enough to be TTP, among other things.

 

also this, this is awesome. he left his wife and kid and continued sialing, if i recall correctly. i believe i used to have a theory that made his ex-girl, that important whore at braavos, the mysterious one that arya hears about.



#10 TheBlackFlame

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 10:04 PM

Well first I'm not trying to be confrontational and if I came across that way I apologize. But its a question of research methods used to create theories. I'm sure you you've heard of Occam's Razor, the idea that when posed with two competing yet equally predictive hypothesis you should choose the one that requires the fewest assumptions. We have two theories A. The Tattered Prince is secretly Gerion Lannister and B. The Tattered Prince is just The Tattered Prince. Okay from the very outset the deck is stacked against you because my hypothesis requires one assumption that he is not lying or prevaricating about his identity. Absent evidence to the contrary of which there is none. Sorry to say but your idea is pure speculation based on nothing that can be verified in the text. So as I said in absence of evidence that Tats isn't who he says he is its logical to conclude he is nothing more than he appears to be. Even though I'm making an assumption it is an assumption that nothing in text contradicts. There isn't even circumstantial evidence the he is anything other than what we appears to be. So it is a very safe assumption. Now on to your hypothesis, first and foremost you have to prove that Tats isn't who he says he is. Not to sound like a broken record but there is no evidence that he isn't. To do that you have to explain why he would lie about who he is to begin with and that he actually is. Then you have to prove Gerion is alive because if he isn't how can he be Tats who we know is alive. You are making the assumption that Gerion Lannister is still alive. The problem is there is no evidence that he is so that is a huge assumption based entirely on speculation. If Gerion is alive why not just go home? You're assuming that although he is still alive he for some reason has walked away from one the richest most powerful families in his native land. Why? If he did it there must be a reason. So even if we allow that he is alive you then have to answer the question why just up and abandon his very cushy position. Okay moving forward and taking for granted that he is alive and in hiding or is simply hiding his identity and he has a good reason. You then have to figure out what that reason is. The most common one I've seen being Tywin ordering his death for something. If thats the case why did he order his death? You have to answer that question and prove Tywin or whomever actually did it before we can move on to the next one. Those assumptions require even more assumptions to make the bridge between Tats and Gerion. Tats is in his fifties, Gerion Lannister disappeared just 20 years ago. If Gerion Lannister became the Tattered Prince what happened to the original. We have to assume one of two things, A. he died of an unrelated cause and Gerion took his place or B. Gerion killed him himself to replace him. Either way you're making another assumption that requires a few nice fat assumptions (tired of that word yet?) if he died of unrelated causes what were they? If Gerion killed him why and why him? That is 11 assumptions you have to make for your hypothesis to be true. So our score is 11 to 1 according to occam's razor which has guided research methodology for over a century my hypothesis is literally ten times more likely to be correct. And to be honest I could list many many more things you have to prove for this to be true. Your hypothesis may be correct but considering how many things are conditional upon other yet unproven things and on information you don't have I don't think it is. 


Edited by TheBlackFlame, 19 June 2014 - 10:09 PM.


#11 Archmaester Blazfemur

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 10:08 PM

Well first I'm not trying to be confrontational and if I came across that way I apologize. But its a question of research methods used to create theories. I'm sure you you've heard of Occam's Razor, the idea that when posed with two competing yet equally predictive hypothesis you should choose the one that requires the fewest assumptions. We have two theories A. The Tattered Prince is secretly Gerion Lannister and B. The Tattered Prince is just The Tattered Prince. Okay from the very outset the deck is stacked against you because my hypothesis requires one assumption that he is not lying or prevaricating about his identity. Absent evidence to the contrary of which there is none. Sorry to say but your idea is pure speculation based on nothing that can be verified in the text. So as I said in absence of evidence that Tats isn't who he says he is its logical to conclude he is nothing more than he appears to be. Even though I'm making an assumption it is an assumption that nothing in text contradicts. There isn't even circumstantial evidence the he is anything other than what we appears to be. So it is a very safe assumption. Now on to your hypothesis, first and foremost you have to prove that Tats isn't who he says he is. Not to sound like a broken record but there is no evidence that he isn't. To do that you have to explain why he would lie about who he is to begin with and that he actually is. Then you have to prove Gerion is alive because if he isn't how can he be Tats who we know is alive. You are making the assumption that Gerion Lannister is still alive. The problem is there is no evidence that he is so that is a huge assumption based entirely on speculation. If Gerion is alive why not just go home? You're assuming that although he is still alive he for some reason has walked away from one the richest most powerful families in his native land. Why? If he did it there must be a reason. So even if we allow that he is alive you then have to answer the question why just up and abandon his very cushy position. Okay moving forward and taking for granted that he is alive and in hiding or is simply hiding his identity and he has a good reason. You then have to figure out what that reason is. The most common one I've seen being Tywin ordering his death for something. If thats the case why did he order his death? You have to answer that question and prove Tywin or whomever actually did it before we can move on to the next one. Those assumptions require even more assumptions to make the bridge between Tats and Gerion. Tats is in his fifties, Gerion Lannister disappeared just 20 years ago. If Gerion Lannister became the Tattered Prince what happened to the original. We have to assume one of two things, A. he died of an unrelated cause and Gerion took his place or B. Gerion killed him himself to replace him. Either way you're making another assumption that requires a few nice fat assumptions (tired of that word yet?) if he died of unrelated causes what were they? If Gerion killed why and why him? That is 11 assumptions you have to make for your hypothesis to be true. So our score is 11 to 1 according to occam's razor which has guided research methodology for over a century my hypothesis is literally ten times more likely to be correct. And to be honest I could list many many more things you have to prove for this to be true. Your hypothesis may be correct but considering how many things are conditional upon other yet unproven things and on information you don't have I don't think it is. 

 

im sorry, what?

 

im kidding.

 

It's fine, i myself am fuzzy on the timelines of the tattered prince and gerion's origins. thats why the purpose of this thread was a question, an education, if you will.

 

it's all good bro.

 

i still think gerion is alive, regardless if he wears a tattered cloak or not. they keep bringing him up, for a reason.



#12 TheBlackFlame

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 10:26 PM

 

im sorry, what?

 

im kidding.

 

It's fine, i myself am fuzzy on the timelines of the tattered prince and gerion's origins. thats why the purpose of this thread was a question, an education, if you will.

 

it's all good bro.

 

i still think gerion is alive, regardless if he wears a tattered cloak or not. they keep bringing him up, for a reason.

 

Well I had to take like 4 research methods seminars in college so I take it a little further than your average fan theorist. One way I find is easy to separate the wheat from the chaff so to speak is to remember that you can't find the right answer if you aren't asking the right questions. It has always worked for me, not to brag but I was one of only six people online that I was able to find that figured out where Demandred from the W.O.T. was hiding. Another good way I found came from the Sherlock Holmes novels. If you are able to eliminate all things that are impossible whatever remains no matter how improbable must be the answer. Its jus a matter of figuring what is impossible and that is not as easy as it sounds sometimes.



#13 TheBlackFlame

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:19 PM

i still think gerion is alive, regardless if he wears a tattered cloak or not. they keep bringing him up, for a reason.

 

Actually man I was having this out with someone else earlier today and I looked it up Gerion is actually only mentioned four times in the whole series. Thats just one more time than the ghost grass legend, twice more than the she bear Torrmund nailed and and one less than McUmber's eye. So I'm not sure how much stock I would put in how often he is mentioned being an indicator of importance. Sorry but Tatters=Gerion is just a bridge too far.



#14 jobmartell

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:22 PM

im sorry, what?
 
im kidding.
 
It's fine, i myself am fuzzy on the timelines of the tattered prince and gerion's origins. thats why the purpose of this thread was a question, an education, if you will.
 
it's all good bro.
 
i still think gerion is alive, regardless if he wears a tattered cloak or not. they keep bringing him up, for a reason.


I want TTP to be GL simply because of this exchange now. Never cared before, but after that explanation on why it can't be him, I will push this theory as fact.

#15 TheBlackFlame

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Posted 19 June 2014 - 11:39 PM

I want TTP to be GL simply because of this exchange now. Never cared before, but after that explanation on why it can't be him, I will push this theory as fact.

 

What part precisely do you take exception to?



#16 Ulthosian Stark

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 12:12 AM

Wellllllll, if you wanna do the Razor thing you have to prove he is dead too. Of which there is no way. If he's alive a reason to NOT return home is his brother, who hated laughter and gerion was said to be a joker and made men laugh easily. If I were him I wouldn't want to go home either.

Although as is said the TP has an established timeline, but could said timeline be made up? By Gerion so nobody recognizes him as a Lannister? I'd imagine if he wanted the sellsword life he'd want to leave that name behind.

#17 TheBlackFlame

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 12:47 AM

Wellllllll, if you wanna do the Razor thing you have to prove he is dead too. Of which there is no way. If he's alive a reason to NOT return home is his brother, who hated laughter and gerion was said to be a joker and made men laugh easily. If I were him I wouldn't want to go home either.

Although as is said the TP has an established timeline, but could said timeline be made up? By Gerion so nobody recognizes him as a Lannister? I'd imagine if he wanted the sellsword life he'd want to leave that name behind.

 

No I really don't I'm just agreeing with what we know from the text. Every piece of information that we have on the subject says he is dead. So the burden of proof falls on the person claiming that what is stated the text is wrong. Also I think you might be a little fuzzy on how the whole "Razor thing" as you so eloquently put it works.


Edited by TheBlackFlame, 20 June 2014 - 12:50 AM.


#18 Ulthosian Stark

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 02:29 AM

Eh I'm 21, I don't quite need to be eloquent yet lol

Is there any info on him other then buying slaves to continue when the men quit? If so, the only real evidence for dead is "he was last seen heading towards valyria". Could have been shipwrecked or had a mutiny and was just stuck somewhere for a while.

You mentioned eliminating the impossibilities, I get you can do it for crime, but for a missing person there is NO way to definitely conclude he is dead. Its not a math problem lol. I don't see how you can prove either or here

#19 JonCon's Red Beard

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 02:58 AM

 

No I really don't I'm just agreeing with what we know from the text. Every piece of information that we have on the subject says he is dead. So the burden of proof falls on the person claiming that what is stated the text is wrong. Also I think you might be a little fuzzy on how the whole "Razor thing" as you so eloquently put it works.

 

Gerion Lannister?

 

The appendices don't put him as dead, only lost.

 

"{GERION LANNISTER}, lost at sea".

 

Even though he's between the "{}"s, that's because he's thought to be dead by his family. Otherwise, if he's alive, that would be a major spoiler.Tyrek doesn't appear between the "{}"s because people is still trying to find him. They gave up on Gerion because he was lost in a place that is almost unable to reach. Or because, as many have theorised, was ordered to be killed by Tywin, a plan that could have failed, and he's not actually making any real effort to locate him. But both times Tyrion thinks about Gerion, he only says he's missing or that he never returned, not that he's dead.



#20 Archmaester Blazfemur

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Posted 20 June 2014 - 06:58 PM

In regards to Gerion Lannister bring the Tattered Prince, because of said timelines, I openly acknowledge i can retire the thought.

 

I can't acknowledge his death -- I just can't do it. His ex-girl, very well can be that whore from Braavos, the popular one he left behind.

 

IF HE IS DEAD -- thats well and good. No problems here, we had it coming, he was missing forever.

 

The fact George gave him a "missing" storyline, and furthermore "searching" for Brightroar, the Lannister's sole ancestral valyrian steel blade, makes me wonder if he's in fact alive somewhere. I will acknowledge the identity of TTP isnt Gerion though. Why even create the character and include him in the stories? You know? or if you WERE to include him for the sake of family expansion, no need to give him ALL that backstory.