Rogue Prince or King´s Brother, Part II

[Jaak]

The previous thread has been locked for being long enough to need a new thread.

An aside quote about the Princess and Queen:

As to how long Daemon was in Harrenhal and I'd he might have been there longer than history tells us: at Maidenpool they'll know exactly when Daemon left, and small folk saw Caraxes and Vhagae fight above Harrenhal, so the time inbetween won't be such a mystery, and is likely to be most correct. You are right about the slashes, no one was there and thus no one can tell us what Daemon did. But how long he was there (they could have taken into account how long it usually took a dragon to fly such a distance) should be the same as history tells us now, perhaps differing a day or so, but not that much.

Besides, we have the extra:

A few squatters had found shelter in the castle's deep vaults and undercellars, but the sound of Caraxes's wings sent them fleeing. When the last of them was gone, Daemon Targaryen walked the cavernous halls of Harren's seat alone, with no companion but his dragon. Each night at dusk he slashed the heart tree in the godswood to mark the passing of another day. Thirteen marks can be seen upon that weirwood still;

These squatters would have told the tale of his arrival. And the neighbouring smallfolk could have confirmed that for the 13 days Caraxes was not seen flying out of the castle nor Daemon walking outside.

Then after Caraxes had fallen, the people exploring the empty castle might confirm that the heart tree had 13 slashes that were not there before, and matched it with the 13 days Daemon was known to have spent there alone. But still they would not have known the specific time of day Daemon chose to make the slashes - dusk? noon? midnight? dawn of the next day?

Also: how long do you think it took for Balerion to sicken and degrade? Does Rogue Prince contain any description of Balerion´s last illness or senility?

[Leonardo]

?

I don't really understand your hypothesis ser, though you may be onto something if there is a discrepancy in the dates between what is seen on the weirwood and when he left maidenpool.

It should have taken no longer than a day to fly to Harrenhal; the locations are both in the Riverlands and what's more not far from eachother.

[Veltigar]

?

I don't really understand your hypothesis ser, though you may be onto something if there is a discrepancy in the dates between what is seen on the weirwood and when he left maidenpool.

It should have taken no longer than a day to fly to Harrenhal; the locations are both in the Riverlands and what's more not far from eachother.

He's replying to a post from the locked Rogue's thread ;-)

BTW OP, if you want this thread to replace the locked Rogue's thread you should probably change the title. Most people will look past it otherwise :)

[Lord Varys]

Well, Tze has put a very good theory into place in the last thread.

The main problem is, that we simply don't know the primary sources of whatever happened at Harrenhal, nor do we know how Gyldayn (re)constructs his account on the events. I guess one of the main primary sources is indeed Alys Rivers, but there might have been some other people - peasants, for example - out there witnessing the fall of the dragons (and the fire in the air).

The primary historical sources seem to be Septon Eustace and Mushroom - at least for the reign of Viserys I, and possibly/most likely also for the Dance. If TRP is any indication, then Gyldayn will, most likely, discuss a variety of versions of what happened at Harrenhal - TPatQ most likely recounted on one of them.

I never thought about the possibility that Daemon might try to strike a deal with Aemond, though, and I'm not sure he would have come up with such a silly idea.

Yes, technically Aemond was the leader of the Greens (as Lord Protector and Prince Regent for Aegon II), but he was just a hot-headed young man with a big dragon, not exactly somebody who had the Green followers with him necessary to witness and confirm such a deal. If Aemond really wanted to strike a deal, one would expect him to go to the largest Green army in the field (i.e. the Hightower army at Tumbleton). He could have even stayed at Maidenpool, since he most likely was smart enough to realize that the Mootons would now join Aegon II. And speaking about that, we should take the whole account about Maester Norren with more than a grain of salt - Gyldayn is a maester, and he'll always paint maesters in a good light - and obscure whatever bad things they may have done. I'd not be surprised if the Mootons themselves came to the conclusion how to deal with the situation, or if Norren had counseled Lord Manfryd to declare for Aegon II instead of asking him to deliver him in chains to Rhaenyra...

It would also be somewhat risky/strange to first to try to strike a deal with Aemond and then go on to try to get his son Aegon out of Rhaenyra's clutches. Wouldn't it make more sense to go back to KL to try to get back some sense into Rhaenyra and/or go back to her, murder her, and continue the war in the name of Aegon III? Or striking a deal with the Greens after he had murdered Rhaenyra - thus proving he has turned his cloak?

I'm not sure if Daemon would have to kill Vhagar after murdering Aemond on top of her. Sure, the death of her rider should have put Vhagar in a frenzy, but would she really direct her fury in a conscious effort on Daemon to kill him? I'm not so sure about that. Caraxes was younger and quicker than Vhagar, so if Vhagar was already riderless when Daemon got on the back on his dragon and into the air, there would have been no reason to kill her. Caraxes and Daemon would have had any chance to get away. And if Vhagar had reached Caraxes and Daemon before any of them got into the air, the battle would have gone very differently - Vhagar would have killed both of them, and would not have been killed herself.

If things happened more or less the way described in TPatQ, then my guess is that Daemon used this whole thing indeed obscure his disappearance (or to go out really great if it did not work). He obviously had a plan to kill both Vhagar and Aemond, and since he obviously planned to stage the thing on water, he could have survived the fall rather easily (Aegon II and Jacaerys both survive falls from dragonback - and the latter tumbles into water, too). Afterwards, he would then have joined the Green Men.

If there is a point to all that, the separation of Netty/Sheepstealer and Daemon could have indicated that they realized other forces had to be dealt with, too. If I would have to guess, then Nettles and Sheepstealer went beyond the Wall. That's the only place where the news of the arrival of a dragon would not travel quickly to civilized regions (in Essos, a living dragon would be a great wonder wherever Nettles went).

If that's the case, then we might even meet Sheepstealer again - 'the cold preserves', after all - either as living, fire-breathing dragon, or as a blue-eyed dragon wight (that one could be a real asset in the Others' attack on the Wall).

No idea if it makes sense to connect Nettles to the wildlings/Children of the Forest, but she could have both Targaryen and First Men descendant - say, one of her parents was a survivor from a Lysene slaver who had caught wildlings from beyond the Wall. The ship drowned before Dragonstone, and Nettles is part-wildling and part-descendant Targaryen/Valyrian.

[Veltigar]

If there is a point to all that, the separation of Netty/Sheepstealer and Daemon could have indicated that they realized other forces had to be dealt with, too. If I would have to guess, then Nettles and Sheepstealer went beyond the Wall. That's the only place where the news of the arrival of a dragon would not travel quickly to civilized regions (in Essos, a living dragon would be a great wonder wherever Nettles went).

If that's the case, then we might even meet Sheepstealer again - 'the cold preserves', after all - either as living, fire-breathing dragon, or as a blue-eyed dragon wight (that one could be a real asset in the Others' attack on the Wall).

Well, Essos has its fair share of pretty much uninhabited areas as well. For instance the Red Waste hasn't seen much people ever since the Dothraki laid waste to the settlements there. And there was a dragon skeleton there IIRC. Mayhaps GRRM decided to make that dragon into sheepstealer :)

[Jaak]

It is interesting how the Princess and Queen emphasize the fewness of witnesses to the fight and that considerable time was taken for the news to spread - and yet the Green army at Tumbleton quickly gets the news and reacts to them as truth.

What COULD the distant witnesses see and then report to Green army?

Caraxes and Vhagar fought, fell to lake, and only Caraxes emerged and expired soon.

The detail of Daemon climbing to attack Aemond did not come out until several years later when Aegon III had Aemond´s corpse fished out and found the sword in Aemond´s eye. Even this is no evidence of climbing story - Daemon might have thrown the sword.

It did finally confirm that Aemond was dead.

Distant observers could easily have seen Caraxes and Vhagar and identified them (different colour and size) without being able to spot whether they were ridden at the time.

Suppose that Daemon and Caraxes had managed to roust and kill Vhagar when riderless because Aemond was separated from Vhagar, dismounted somewhere around Harrenhal.

It WOULD have accomplished Daemon´s goal of eliminating Vhagar´s threat to Riverlands and King´s Landing.

But again assuming Aemond was left alive on ground somewhere in the huge Harrenhal. What could he do?

He was dragonless. He still was the third in Green order of succession - after Aegon, Maelor and Jaehaera - and the Regent.

He also was stranded in the middle of an enemy country with only Alys for support. And if he attempted to sneak to Green supporters in Reach or Westerlands on foot, he had the problem of being relatively easy to recognize thanks to his missing eye.

How could he make the best use of Alys?

One option might have been to use Alys, looking like an ordinary pregnant woman, to talk to people and trade for food on their walk to safety.

Another option would have been to leave Alys behind at Harrenhal with orders to emerge from the castle and announce that she had seen Aemond thake off on Vhagar so he must have died with Vhagar. Which is pretty much what she did do.

So, was Alys telling the truth, or was she lying to cover Aemond´s escape?

We, and King Aegon III, know that Aemond did die chained to Vhagar. The Green armies at Tumbleton had no way of confirming that Alys was telling the truth that Aemond was dead.

[Lord Varys]

Veltigar,

well, but you'd really suppose that people would see Nettles and Sheepstealer flying to those uninhabited areas, wouldn't you? Say, if a dragon hung out in the Dothraki Sea, the former Kingdom of Sarnor, the Red Waste, wherever you want, eventually people would go there to see it. And much sooner, if Nettles had to cross inhabited areas to reach those.

Now, I don't think she knew all that much about Essosi geography - something like, 'Well, things suck here, let's go to the Thousand Isles' isn't very likely. The one 'wild region' in Westeros is beyond the Wall. She would have known about that, and if she flew along the coastline up north, only coming back inland in the evening, she could have gotten up there more or less unspotted.

If somebody later found traces of her, it could have been rumors circulating among the wildlings about a dragon and his female rider which eventually reached the Night's Watch. What eventually happened to her and her dragon could be about as mysterious as the fate of Lord Commander Rivers (to most people) or Benjen Stark.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

The previous thread has been locked for being long enough to need a new thread.

An aside quote about the Princess and Queen:

Besides, we have the extra:

These squatters would have told the tale of his arrival. And the neighbouring smallfolk could have confirmed that for the 13 days Caraxes was not seen flying out of the castle nor Daemon walking outside.

Then after Caraxes had fallen, the people exploring the empty castle might confirm that the heart tree had 13 slashes that were not there before, and matched it with the 13 days Daemon was known to have spent there alone. But still they would not have known the specific time of day Daemon chose to make the slashes - dusk? noon? midnight? dawn of the next day?

Also: how long do you think it took for Balerion to sicken and degrade? Does Rogue Prince contain any description of Balerion´s last illness or senility?

True, of course, there were still people in Harrenhal when Daemon arrived. They might know that the tree in the Godswood did not have any slashes on them previously, and might just be part of the small folk who witnessed the fight between the dragons 14 days later. If they searched Harrenhal after the fight, they would simply have connected the dots: the amount of days Daemon had been there was the same as the amount of slashes in the tree. The timing of making the slashes might then have been a detail the people who had fled (and later searched) Harrenhal added, or perhaps Alys, claiming to have seen it in her fires.

TRP gives no indication on whether Balerion had been sick before he died, and if he had been, for how long.

[Lord Varys]

On the death of the dragons:

Well, I'd be surprised if the Citadel only turned against the dragons after the Dance. Surely, the Dance itself again showed how dangerous dragons could be, but, as far as we know, only in Tumbleton did the general population face the wrath of the dragons - in all the other battles they just killed each other.

If a majority among the Archmaester had already reached the conclusion that the world would fare much better without dangerous (and unreliable) magic prior to the Conquest (perhaps during the century between the Doom and the Conquest when magic must have gradually declined, if the Doom really struck a blow to it), then I'd not be surprised if the Citadel had tried to find a way to rid Westeros of the Targaryens before the Dance. Meaning that they could indeed have slowly poisoned the older dragons, especially Balerion, when he reached a certain age where people would not ask questions when the dragon died of 'natural causes'.

I'd expect that the dragons in KL and the Dragonpit where much more endangered to fall prey to such attempts, since on Dragonstone the dragons roamed apparently more or less free - especially those currently without riders. Whereas the ridden dragons in KL where chained, guarded, and cared for in the Dragonpit.

But the Dance should have given this anti-dragon-conspiracy much more momentum than it previously might have had - remember, Septon Barth wrote his Unnatural History during the reign of Jaehaerys, and it seems that magic was actually on a slow rise again during the early years of the Targaryen reign (Visenya and Barth supposedly were very interested in sorcery), but the Dance would have hammered home the fact that dragons were dangerous, especially to those people who were not actually aware of the hidden agenda of the Citadel but could still be used to carry out the deeds.

Let's look at the Shepherd for a moment. If Daemon's decision to go to Harrenhal is somewhat irritating, then the behavior (and the eventual success) or the dragonslaying mob of KL is even more irritating. Yeah, people were afraid and all, but how stupid must you be to consider it a good idea to slay the dragons in your city who are supposed to protect you against the dragons that are coming to burn your city down (the latter you cannot attack in their stable!). I've suggested that (parts of) the mob attacking the Dragonpit may have been poisoned with the same thing Jaqen used to turn Weese's own dog against him. The Citadel could have pulled this off by using the Green agents and loyalists in the city as their instruments, disguising the whole thing as an attack on Rhaenyra and her dragons. All they would have needed was to get the poison into food given out in the pot shops of Flea Bottom, for instance.

The Shepherd himself could be anyone. But don't we know who he is because the maesters don't know who he is, or do they simply not want to reveal who he was.

After the Dance, the Regency would have been the ideal time for the Citadel to take they plan to the next phase. The king was a minor, and afraid of dragons, only few Targaryens were left to ride or claim any dragons (perhaps Baela and Rhaena?), any newly-hatched dragons would be hatchlings who could not be immediately bind with Targaryens etc. The perfect time for the maesters to poison the surviving/recently hatched dragons until none were left. Later on, after his death, they could blame the king history named 'the Dragonbane', he had a very good motive to get rid of the dragons, anyway. The Faith may have interpreted the death of the dragons as divine punishment from the gods for the Dance - kinslaying is an awful thing, and the Targaryens clearly killed a lot of kin during the Dance.

And, in fact, I'd not be completely surprised if it turned out that after the Dance the remaining eggs no longer hatched because the Dance did indeed severely weaken/cripple whatever magical bond there was between the Targaryens and their dragons. We know from Daemon that there were civil wars fought on dragonback back in Old Valyria, but it's possible that only various lines of dragonlords (and dragons) fought against each other, that there was never infighting among dragonlords of the same incestuous line (at least not with the help of their dragons).

[Veltigar]

Veltigar,

well, but you'd really suppose that people would see Nettles and Sheepstealer flying to those uninhabited areas, wouldn't you? Say, if a dragon hung out in the Dothraki Sea, the former Kingdom of Sarnor, the Red Waste, wherever you want, eventually people would go there to see it. And much sooner, if Nettles had to cross inhabited areas to reach those.

Now, I don't think she knew all that much about Essosi geography - something like, 'Well, things suck here, let's go to the Thousand Isles' isn't very likely. The one 'wild region' in Westeros is beyond the Wall. She would have known about that, and if she flew along the coastline up north, only coming back inland in the evening, she could have gotten up there more or less unspotted.

If somebody later found traces of her, it could have been rumors circulating among the wildlings about a dragon and his female rider which eventually reached the Night's Watch. What eventually happened to her and her dragon could be about as mysterious as the fate of Lord Commander Rivers (to most people) or Benjen Stark.

I don't know, I just think Essos isn't really densly populated (apart from the area immediately surrounding the Free Cities and places like Qarth). I think that it doesn't exactly stretch believabilty that she could have avoided being seen :)

Let's look at the Shepherd for a moment. If Daemon's decision to go to Harrenhal is somewhat irritating, then the behavior (and the eventual success) or the dragonslaying mob of KL is even more irritating. Yeah, people were afraid and all, but how stupid must you be to consider it a good idea to slay the dragons in your city who are supposed to protect you against the dragons that are coming to burn your city down (the latter you cannot attack in their stable!). I've suggested that (parts of) the mob attacking the Dragonpit may have been poisoned with the same thing Jaqen used to turn Weese's own dog against him. The Citadel could have pulled this off by using the Green agents and loyalists in the city as their instruments, disguising the whole thing as an attack on Rhaenyra and her dragons. All they would have needed was to get the poison into food given out in the pot shops of Flea Bottom, for instance.

Perhaps a watered down version of the poison (manticore venom [EDIT: Basilisk blood] IIRC)? I think the real stuff makes animals go rabid on the spot and attack everything in sight. If the mob had been fed that, they would have attacked each other instead of the Targaryens.

But if they found a way to dilute the poison it could work. It would be similar to the real word practice of giving soldiers a cocktail of rum and cocaine to drink before they left their trenches to attack the enemy in WWI.

[Maia]

I don't know, I just think Essos isn't really densly populated (apart from the area immediately surrounding the Free Cities and places like Qarth). I think that it doesn't exactly stretch believabilty that she could have avoided being seen :)

And Daemon had personal experience with travelling through Westeros and Essos on dragonback, he could have suggested to Nettles where to go and which route to take in order not to be seen.

Lord Varys - IMHO, Daemon could reasonably believe that with Aemond and perhaps Vhagar out of the picture his children would be much safer. As far as he knew, Rhaenyra still had Syrax, Tyraxes and Moondancer and quite a bit of military support. Aegon the Younger could have had a chance to bond a dragon too. She still had a fighting chance, and if the Greens had won, Prince Daeron would have become the head of the Targaryen family, and he was far more likely to be merciful to Daemon's kids.

I don't think that Rhaena in the Vale or Baela on Dragonstone were really safe either, as long as Aemond and Vhagar were at large. Aemond could have quit ravaging the Riverlands at any point and gone after them.

And on the other hand, I do think that maybe Daemon had his fill of power struggles and royal life. And/or that he felt so deeply betrayed by Rhaenyra that he didn't want anything to do with her, but couldn't bring himself to murder her either.

Not to mention, that he may have realized that if he _did_ kill her, then most of the Black support might have melted away. It seems that she was far more popular than he was among their allies, and Lady Arryn loathed him.

Perhaps his best case scenario was to kill Aemond so as to protect his kids as far as he was able, and then to go rejoin Nettles wherever she has gone and live the rest of his life with her.

[Colonel Green]

Surely, the Dance itself again showed how dangerous dragons could be, but, as far as we know, only in Tumbleton did the general population face the wrath of the dragons - in all the other battles they just killed each other.

Aemond was flying around the Riverlands torching villages for a huge stretch of the war. Daemon and Nettles were hunting him for that reason.

I dislike turning the entire Dance, and events like the Dragonpit storming, into events orchestrated by the maesters. That feels like a cop-out.

[Jaak]

And, in fact, I'd not be completely surprised if it turned out that after the Dance the remaining eggs no longer hatched because the Dance did indeed severely weaken/cripple whatever magical bond there was between the Targaryens and their dragons. We know from Daemon that there were civil wars fought on dragonback back in Old Valyria, but it's possible that only various lines of dragonlords (and dragons) fought against each other, that there was never infighting among dragonlords of the same incestuous line (at least not with the help of their dragons).

We know that Maegor the Cruel slew his late brother´s elder sons - and the eldest son and heir, Aegon, was killed in dragonback fight over Harrenhal.

(BTW, could the legitimists decide to count that Aegon as II? Even if he did not call himself "King" after his father´s death, his supporters could decide that he was the legitimate king at the time...)

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

We know that Maegor the Cruel slew his late brother´s elder sons - and the eldest son and heir, Aegon, was killed in dragonback fight over Harrenhal.

(BTW, could the legitimists decide to count that Aegon as II? Even if he did not call himself "King" after his father´s death, his supporters could decide that he was the legitimate king at the time...)

But shouldn't he then have first received a coronation?

Rhaenyra called herself queen, but she had received a coronation. Viserys III called himself a King, but he had been crowned at Dragonstone, while Rhaella was still pregnant.

Aegon (VI) is still calling himself Prince Aegon, not King Aegon VI, because he hasn't had a coronation yet. So if Aenys' eldest son hadn't received a coronation, I don't think he can count as Aegon II.

[Lord Varys]

Maia,

sorry, I just can't construe Daemon's Harrenhal stunt as a thing he did to protect his children. Aemond was just a man with a big dragon. That does not mean he is invincible or immortal. In my opinion, it's either a sudden suicidal mood swing, or a mad stunt to fake his death. He deliberately chose to Harrenhal as the sight for the whole thing.

Colonel Green,

no one says the whole Dance was a Citadel-conspiracy - that makes little sense, the Alicent and Ser Otto wanted to share the Targaryen power, not destroy them.

But the storming of the Dragonpit is not an event I cannot attribute completely to just a mad, out of control mob. The hate and the fear of the people were deliberately directed towards the dragons by the Shepherd - he must have had a motive for that. I know that crowds act really stupid and all, but I really see a difference between, say, people trampling other people down while trying to escape from a fire, and people not actually in immediate danger running in the hundreds and thousands in the (literal) dragon's jaw (let alone successfully kill the beast - Morghul, Shrykos, and Tyraxes are one thing, but Dreamfyre and free Syrax an entirely different matter).

And we know that there is supposed to be an anti-dragon Citadel conspiracy.

[Jaak]

Another point:

Jaehaerys, as much as Aegon Dragonsbane, was a survivor of a traumatic Targaryen civil war, which was waged despite the need for family solidarity in face of Faith rebellion. It may have been short, but Uncle Maegor killed his brother´s elder son and heir in a dragonback battle losing Quicksilver for House Targaryen, and Viserys taken alive was slowly tortured to death.

Jaehaerys was 8 at the time, and somehow survived. Alysanne was older (but her elder sister Rhaena also survived as the Black Bride).

Did Jaehaerys draw any conclusions as to how to avert another civil war?

[RumHam]

Perhaps a watered down version of the poison (manticore venom IIRC)? I think the real stuff makes animals go rabid on the spot and attack everything in sight. If the mob had been fed that, they would have attacked each other instead of the Targaryens.

It's Basilisk blood actually. Manticore venom normally kills you when it reaches the heart.

Viserys III called himself a King, but he had been crowned at Dragonstone, while Rhaella was still pregnant.

Huh, I don't think I ever knew that. Do we know if he used one of the Targaryen crowns?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Huh, I don't think I ever knew that. Do we know if he used one of the Targaryen crowns?

It was in the app, IIRC.

Searched through all my app-notes for you :) And I found this:

Following the Sack of King's Landing and the deaths of Aerys, Princess Elia Martell , and the presumed deaths of Rhaegar's children Aegon and Rhaenys , Viserys was declared king on Dragonstone. Nine turns of the moon later, however, the royal fleet was smashed in a storm, and at the same time Rhaella died while giving birth to Daenerys Targaryen , who was known thereafter as Daenerys Stormborn. When the garrison prepared to betray the two remaining Targaryens to Stannis Baratheon and his approaching fleet, the loyal Ser Willem Darry spirited them away to Braavos .

No mention on which crown was used, for as far as I know.

[RumHam]

Thanks. Only the sale of Rhaella's crown is mentioned in the books

Years past they had been forced to sell their last few treasures, and now even the coin they had gotten from Mother’s crown had gone.

[Veltigar]

It's Basilisk blood actually. Manticore venom normally kills you when it reaches the heart.

Thanks, I'll edit my post :)