Oberyn Martell: My starting Domino in my great DIRT Crackpot Theory

[Pengwin7]

Last night I passed the chapter in which Tyrion receives the Dornishmen on their way to King's Landing.

I find Oberyn Martell to be one of the most interesting secondary characters in ASOIAF... mostly because he is involved in my own domino effect of events to lead to my 3-headed dragon.

Context:

My own crackpot theory on ASOIAF is that the three-headed dragon is:

*Tyrion Lannister (born 274AC). Mother: Joanna Lannister. Father: Rhaegar Targaryen. (Rhaegar's first "love", although forbidden... a backstory that has not been yet divulged.)

*Daenerys Targaryen (born 283AC). Mother Lyanna Stark. Father: Rhaegar Targaryen. (Fraternal twin birth with Jon Snow).

*Jon Snow (born 283AC). Mother Lyanna Stark. Father: Rhaegar Targaryen. (Fraternal twin birth with Dany).

Interesting Character Notes on Oberyn (from meeting Tyrion):

pg. 523

He [Oberyn] had traveled in the Free Cities, learning the poisoner's trade and perhaps arts darker still, if rumors could be believed. he had studied at the Citadel, going so far as to forge six links of a maester's chain before he grew bored.

Thoughts: GRRM wants to establish that Oberyn might have a mind on par, or surpassing, that of a Maester. And also that Oberyn could kill somebody with poison. Though the default thinking would be that Oberyn may kill with his poison-tipped battle equipment (per Lord Yronwood story), perhaps there are other deaths that Oberyn may have had his poisoning hand in. (Time will tell, but obviously this though is directed more at past deaths, unexplained.)

...it was said that he bedded girls all over Dorne. The sand snakes, men called his daughters. So far as Tyrion had heard, Prince Oberyn had never fathered a son.

Thoughts: This link suggests a minimum of EIGHT Sand Snakes. And the odds of any man having all eight children same sex is 2^7 = 1 in 128. In other words... the mathematical odds are incredibly low that any man would have 8 daughters and no sons. Is there something deeper her? Why does GRRM set up his character as such? It's not like he is "Craster"... is he? The Craster of the south? One would have to think that he would not always be around for birth of his babies. And I could not see him simply killing a baby boy. So we either have to assume i) That he doesn't create male offspring -or- ii) That something happens to them.

(Speaking of seeing Tyrion as a baby) You did have one evil eye, some black fuzz on your scalp.

Tyrion has one green eye, one black eye.

I think a reader is to assume that the "black eye" would be evil... but did GRRM intend for Oberyn's remarks to mean the "green eye" or the "black eye".

It does suggest that Tyrion is half-good, half-bad... perhaps. And that note could be extrapolated to his genetic parents... perhaps.

(Oberyn speaking) "As children Elia and I were inseperable, much like your own brother and sister". To this Tyrion's thought response is Gods, I hope not.

With this line, GRRM is going to lead are thinking to a couple options:

1) They were close enough where Oberyn would really deeply need revenge for Elia's death. This is the default thinking, as the previous line in the dialogue is Oberyn asking "when will the justice be served?".

2) They were close enough to be incestuous... similar to Jaime/Cersei. Personally, I've bought into this theory. The Dorne family line is the most commonly married into the Targaryen lineage, which inbreeds... so Martell incest seems actually more likely than Lannister incest.

I think opponents to them being incestuous would cite that Oberyn was obviously with many women during his lifetime.

Though, I might consider that the siblings simply had an open relationship... with each other as their closest TRUE love interest.

When they could spend time together, they would.

Oberyn never marrying, because he never truly loved another besides his sister.

Why this thought line Pengwin?

Here's my domino effect from Oberyn Martell, which leads to my great crackpot theory ***which really should a separate thread***:

The Great DIRT Crackpot Theory: Dad Is Rhaegar Targaryen / Dragon-Rider-Three****

1. If Oberyn/Elia were incestuous, then perhaps they are the genetic parents to both Rhaenys & "Aegon" (VI).

2. Thus, the death's of Elia + Rhaenys + Aegon at Sack of King's Landing provides extra fuel to Oberyn's desire to exact revenge on the Mountain.

3. Also - IF Aegon (VI) was Oberyn's... then it would be a precious "boy" baby born to him. This would certainly make this boy VERY special as the only boy of Oberyn's 9 offspring. [*This baby exists, I believe, but not in the "character name" of future books]

4. Back to Oberyn/Elia, if they were incestuous it would make great sense that their mother (Princess of Dorne) would be interested in cross-marrying to the incestuous off-spring of her friend Joanna Lannister.

5. And when that proposal fails (due to Joanna's death), then the Princess of Dorne's next option is to marry Elia to her other good friend's son. This being Rhaegar, son of Rhaella (friend of PoD).

6. Rhaegar, being close with his mother, would enter into the marriage with Elia because it i) works for alliance strength, ii) allows Elia/Oberyn to carry on, iii) allows Rhaegar to chase his true love without upseting his daddy Aerys II.

7. From here, Rhaegar only needs to pretend to be the father of Elia's offspring. (and fake-royal-father of heirs to crown IS the main story of the first book: GoT)

8. When Rhaegar meets his next true love, Lyanna, there is no slight for Elia to be upset with Rhaegar crowning Lyanna as QoLaB (as revealed in previous story told by Reeds to Bran in SoS).

...

9. And the endgame of my crackpot theory is that Rhaegar & Lyanna birthed fraternal twins: Daenerys Targaryen (birthed first) followed by Jon Snow (birthed second).

10. At the Tower of Joy, after birth of the twins, it was Oberyn Martell (friend to Rhaegar, via understanding with Elia/Rhaegar marriage) that would take the Targaryen-looking twin out of Westeros, with help from Rhaegar's boyhood Master-at-Arms, Willem Darry.

11. Oberyn also is one of the few Westerosi who visits Dany (& Viserys) overseas during their youth.

...

12. And although GRRM has "confirmed" that the vision Dany has in the HotU is of Elia holding "Aegon" and Rhaegar saying "There must be one more"... I don't believe that the woman had to be Elia. It is a "vision" for Dany... and having met neither Elia or Lyanna, she would not possibly know WHO she is looking at in that vision. Thus, even GRRM should not be able to speak on behalf of what Dany saw. When Dany discusses this vision with Jorah Mormont in her subsequent chapter in CoK, it is Jorah who says "That must have been Elia, mother of Aegon". So this translation by Jorah, I believe, is GRRM's justification in saying "It was Elia" in the vision... because that is WHO Dany would believe the woman to be once she discusses the vision with Jorah. Also, if GRRM answers ANY other way... then the secret is possibly out... that Rhaegar birthed another named "Aegon" and that there "must be one more".

...

13. So... now... for anybody open enough... consider the following: In the Tower of Joy, Lyanna first gives birth to the fraternal twin Daenerys. Daenerys is handed off to a wetnurse. The second baby birthed is Jon Snow. Rhaegar wishes to name this baby as "Aegon". Yes, his wife Elia has a baby named "Aegon", who is really Oberyn Martell's only son. But Rhaegar's affection for his great grandfather Aegon V (linked via fire at Summerhall) results in Rhaegar wanting to name his own son as Aegon. Of course, later when Eddard Stark shows up the baby's looks allow it to stay in Westeros thanks to its "Stark-like" genes... but the baby must be renamed... and it is renamed from Ay-gon, similar to Ay-jon, to just Jon. Jon ofcourse works because of Eddard's tie to Jon Arryn and needing to mask the child as his own.

...

14. So now the vision in HotU is of Lyanna holding baby Jon Snow. Rhaegar speaks of the song of ice and fire and the prince that was promised. And he says "there must be one more"... seemingly looking at Daenerys. But he doesn't even need to be looking at Daenerys phsyically in house of the undying, because her vision might be through her own eyes as a baby (being held by a wetnurse). The great magic in this whole crackpot theory is this: Dany isn't PtwP/AA. Jon isn't PtwP/AA. The PtwP/AA is Rhaegar's third child, the one he had long ago: Tyrion Lannister. And Rhaegar says "there must be one more", because in the brief moment, has has forgotten his 3rd blood offspring.

...

15. Back to Tyrion Lannister via Rhaegar/Joanna.

In shortest terms possible. I believe that Rhaegar/Joanna had a forbidden relationship in 273AC. Rhaegar would have been 14yrs old... and this is not too young for a man in that day to couple with an experience woman. The toughest argument in my theory, I believe, is that most want to believe that Tywin/Joanna were close enough where she wouldn't have cheated. But... Cersei/Jaime were 8 years old at Tyrion's birth. IF Joanna/Tywin really wanted more children, they would not have waited 7 years to try for more. There was something wrong here. Unfortunately for Rhaegar, birth begets death (Aegon:Rhaegar, Joanna:Tyrion, Lyanna:Jon/Dany) and Joanna would die from birthing Tyrion. This gives some fuel to Tywin knowing that Tyrion was not his... but perhaps not knowing whose. The books too obviously misdirect us to thinking that IF Tyrion was from a Targ... it would be from Aerys II... via his comments prior to Tywin/Joanna's wedding. GRRM obviously sets up discussion of Tyrion being a Targ as soon as he gives him different coloured eyes... and with Tyrion's discussions with Jon Snow about his fascination with dragons. However, to misdirect us from Rhaegar possibly being Tyrion's dad (don't forget, Rhaegar would be 15 at Tyrion's birth) he adds the comment with Aerys II lusting Joanna. Possible-Targ-father shifted by GRRM, mission accomplished. Back to Rhaegar, who may at some age decide to be a knight. This could be something in his scrolls... or if pre-Tyrion, perhaps it was to chase his first love (Joanna) to tournaments and meet with her there. Perhaps, if he's aware that the "bookish" Tyrion is his son, he needs to be a knight to travel to tournaments to have any chance to see his son often. I believe farther in ASOIAF there is some story about how the crowds in Lannisport cheered for Rhaegar vs. Tywin vs. Aerys II... and also how Cersei cried upon hearing his harp - had she heard it before?. But I do not believe that Rhaegar's pro-creation (with Elia, with Lyanna) was for prophecy. I believe he has three children all from love.

...

16. Promise me Ned.

Promise me you will take care of my children. Directly, this is Jon Snow. Indirectly, Eddard refuses to vote to kill Daenerys when discussed by the Small Council in GoT. Also on board not killing children is Barristan Selmy (whose thoughts live on to represent those of the great Kingsguard 6... even 7... of King Aerys II).

*******

Anyways... Oberyn's a key piece in my grand theory... no boys... inseperable with Elia...

Interesting things, I think.

[Tormund GiantsMANE]

i think you may have sprinkled some crack in your pot

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Context:

My own crackpot theory on ASOIAF is that the three-headed dragon is:

*Tyrion Lannister (born 274AC). Mother: Joanna Lannister. Father: Rhaegar Targaryen. (Rhaegar's first "love", although forbidden... a backstory that has not been yet divulged.)

*Daenerys Targaryen (born 283AC). Mother Lyanna Stark. Father: Rhaegar Targaryen. (Fraternal twin birth with Jon Snow).

*Jon Snow (born 283AC). Mother Lyanna Stark. Father: Rhaegar Targaryen. (Fraternal twin birth with Dany).

Daenerys was born in 284AC.. 8 to 9 months after Jon Snow, as per GRRM ;)

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Thoughts: This link suggests a minimum of EIGHT Sand Snakes. And the odds of any man having all eight children same sex is 2^7 = 1 in 128. In other words... the mathematical odds are incredibly low that any man would have 8 daughters and no sons. Is there something deeper her? Why does GRRM set up his character as such? It's not like he is "Craster"... is he? The Craster of the south? One would have to think that he would not always be around for birth of his babies. And I could not see him simply killing a baby boy. So we either have to assume i) That he doesn't create male offspring -or- ii) That something happens to them.

Quellon Greyjoy had 9 sons and no daughters.. Maege Mormont has only daughters. There are a few more of such examples.. ;) sometimes, no matter how the odds, it just happens.

I think opponents to them being incestuous would cite that Oberyn was obviously with many women during his lifetime.

Though, I might consider that the siblings simply had an open relationship... with each other as their closest TRUE love interest.

When they could spend time together, they would.

Oberyn never marrying, because he never truly loved another besides his sister.

Oberyn spend quite some time in Essos.. And had been with Ellaria for at least 15 years. All suggesting that he loves Ellaria.

It seems more that Oberyn had a change in character after Elia and her children died. Before the war, Oberyn travelled a lot, slept around a lot, and fathered multiple children on multiple women. After the war, Oberyn stayed with one woman (though other "bedmates" were not out of the question, naturally ;) ), had children with only one woman, and remained mostly in Dorne.

1. If Oberyn/Elia were incestuous, then perhaps they are the genetic parents to both Rhaenys & "Aegon" (VI).

Aegon had the Targaryen looks. Neither Oberyn, nor Elia, did.

4. Back to Oberyn/Elia, if they were incestuous it would make great sense that their mother (Princess of Dorne) would be interested in cross-marrying to the incestuous off-spring of her friend Joanna Lannister.

Whose incest was known at that moment to only Joanna.. Who seems to have taken the secret to her grave.. since she died not long after having discovered it. Joanna was horrified. It is highly unlikely she would tell anyone about it.. Especially through a letter.

6. Rhaegar, being close with his mother, would enter into the marriage with Elia because it i) works for alliance strength, ii) allows Elia/Oberyn to carry on, iii) allows Rhaegar to chase his true love without upseting his daddy Aerys II.

Elia and Oberyn would not be able to carry on anything. Oberyn, born in either 257 or 258AC, was exiled at the age of 16, so either in 273, 274 or 275AC. Elia got married to Rhaegar in either 277AC, 278AC or 279AC. Exile rarely lasts only a year, so there is a chance that Oberyn missed Elia's wedding.

When he returned after his exile, Oberyn went to study in the Citadel, staying at least 2 years, possibly more, to forge 6 links. In 281AC, he had stopped, though, since he was present at the Tourney at Harrenhal. Oberyn, after his studies at the Citadel, went across the Narrow Sea again to serve with the second sons (at least 1 year), and then to form his own company (for an unknown amount of time). It is currently unknown whether Oberyn started this before Harrenhal (and in 281AC had returned to Westeros to stay), or whether he went to Essos after Harrenhal (so he would have served with the Second sons from 281AC until 282AC, and had his own company for another year).

It should be said, that Oberyn's lack of involvement during the War of the usurper, suggests that he was not in Westeros at this point (and thus favoring Oberyn fighting in the free companies after Harrenhal, which would also give him more time at the Citadel, and possibly some time at Dorne in between the Citadel and Essos).

7. From here, Rhaegar only needs to pretend to be the father of Elia's offspring. (and fake-royal-father of heirs to crown IS the main story of the first book: GoT)

No future king would knowingly allow his wife to birth him children who aren't his own heirs.

9. And the endgame of my crackpot theory is that Rhaegar & Lyanna birthed fraternal twins: Daenerys Targaryen (birthed first) followed by Jon Snow (birthed second).

Again, Dany and Jon were born 8 to 9 months apart, in different years ;)

[John Suburbs]

I take everything GRRM says with a grain of salt. Dany was reportedly born nine months before Jon, on Dragonstone to Rhaella, but that could just be the cover story. So GRRM could state this not as fact but as the official story as far as anyone in Westeros knows.