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What will break Stannis?


137 replies to this topic

#1 Ygrain

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 12:25 AM

Robert was the true steel. Stannis is pure iron, black and hard and strong, yes, but brittle, the way iron gets. He’ll break before he bends. And Renly, that one, he’s copper, bright and shiny, pretty to look at but not worth all that much at the end of the day.

 

It was not Lord Eddard’s face he saw floating before him, though; it was Lady Catelyn’s. With her deep blue eyes and hard cold mouth, she looked a bit like Stannis. Iron, he thought, but brittle.

 

We know what broke Cat; can we conclude that sooner or later, Stannis will reach his breaking point, as well? What would it be, though? Cat's weakness, her family, was revealed early on, but what weaknesses does Stannis have? He doesn't show affection for anyone, he wants the throne and wants it badly, to the point of compromising his principles by using Melisandre's dark arts. Is this what will be his undoing? Dany's vision of a king casting no shadow seems to hint that his involvement in producing shadow babies is somehow a defining feature of his, but I don't see how it is going to break him.



#2 IRON BANK

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 12:28 AM

Mel, who is the true power behind Stannis will be his undoing.  The fact that Stannis and his ambition blinds him.  Stannis has moved all the players to Jon so now all we need is Stannis to make one last charge at the enemy and leave his cause in the hands of Jon to sit Shireen on the throne.



#3 JonCon's Red Beard

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 12:28 AM

Maybe I'm a bit biased by the show, but I think it could be Shireen. If Mel or Selyse try to hurt her, he might not taking it very well...


Edited by JonCon's Red Beard, 11 July 2014 - 12:29 AM.


#4 Bog Devil of Greywater

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 12:36 AM

 

Robert was the true steel. Stannis is pure iron, black and hard and strong, yes, but brittle, the way iron gets. He’ll break before he bends. And Renly, that one, he’s copper, bright and shiny, pretty to look at but not worth all that much at the end of the day.

 

It was not Lord Eddard’s face he saw floating before him, though; it was Lady Catelyn’s. With her deep blue eyes and hard cold mouth, she looked a bit like Stannis. Iron, he thought, but brittle.

 

We know what broke Cat; can we conclude that sooner or later, Stannis will reach his breaking point, as well? What would it be, though? Cat's weakness, her family, was revealed early on, but what weaknesses does Stannis have? He doesn't show affection for anyone, he wants the throne and wants it badly, to the point of compromising his principles by using Melisandre's dark arts. Is this what will be his undoing? Dany's vision of a king casting no shadow seems to hint that his involvement in producing shadow babies is somehow a defining feature of his, but I don't see how it is going to break him.

 

 

The events of the next book should suck pretty hard for Lord Stannis.

 

If fAegon takes the Iron Throne, the Targaryen claim will be re-established, and by right of conquest, the Baratheon claim will be undone.

 

And if Jon is reborn, and is Azor Ahai as many suspect, Stannis is going to have to come to grips with the fact that he isn't, and that he's done some pretty fucked up things chasing a destiny that was never his, and he will likely watch Melisandre defect quickly to Jon's camp.

 

He will be left with nothing. A rebel Lord without lands, without a claim, and without a destiny.

 

Those things taken together would be enough to break him, I would think.



#5 E-Ro

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 12:39 AM

He will be left with nothing. A rebel Lord without lands, without a claim, and without a destiny.

Wait what why would he not have a claim? Is he going to cease being a Baratheon in the next book?

#6 El Guapo

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 12:43 AM

You don't lose claims. Why do people have a hard time understanding this concept?



#7 Bog Devil of Greywater

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 12:43 AM

Wait what why would he not have a claim? Is he going to cease being a Baratheon in the next book?

 

Because he was stripped of his actual lands by Joffery, and declared a rebel Lord. If fAegon ascends the throne, he will end Stannis' royal claim as a Baratheon.

 

fAegon could give him Storm's End back, certainly, but why would he?



#8 IRON BANK

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 12:43 AM

 

The events of the next book should suck pretty hard for Lord Stannis.

 

If fAegon takes the Iron Throne, the Targaryen claim will be re-established, and by right of conquest, the Baratheon claim will be undone.

 

And if Jon is reborn, and is Azor Ahai as many suspect, Stannis is going to have to come to grips with the fact that he isn't, and that he's done some pretty fucked up things chasing a destiny that was never his, and he will likely watch Melisandre defect quickly to Jon's camp.

 

He will be left with nothing. A rebel Lord without lands, without a claim, and without a destiny.

 

Those things taken together would be enough to break him, I would think.

Sounds about right:  Stannis is a man of duty, what happens when the things you are fighting for disappear?  It seems that the crash will be hard for him to handle. Even though I doubt it will stop him.  I feel he will side with Jon, then push for a shireen rickon marriage.  After that I feel his days are numbered.



#9 JonCon's Red Beard

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 12:44 AM

Well, in the next book

 

Spoiler


#10 Reek Havoc

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 12:45 AM

Maybe I'm a bit biased by the show, but I think it could be Shireen. If Mel or Selyse try to hurt her, he might not taking it very well...

 

I think the same.  After all the show has some influence from the books, even if we don't know which parts and to what extent... I could see Stannis sacrificing himself for her.

 

In fact, that's the only way I can see Stannis going out.  By choice.



#11 jon Rhaegar stark

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 12:56 AM

Winter probably and

 

i think he is going to be frustrated that after everything he has done no one recognize him as a king and upon learning  everyone is just backing him up for their own gain  and loss of his daughter ....all this can lead him to sell his soul to the others



#12 Bayard

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 12:57 AM

 

Because he was stripped of his actual lands by Joffery, and declared a rebel Lord. If fAegon ascends the throne, he will end Stannis' royal claim as a Baratheon.

 

fAegon could give him Storm's End back, certainly, but why would he?

 

That makes no sense.... Aegon lost all his lands, he was taken to Essos, does that mean he lost his claim??? Of course not, he's still fighting for the Iron Throne. The only way for Stannis to lose his claim is if he accepts that Aegon is the true king, goes to him and swears that he will be his subject. That will not happen, as long as he fights he has a claim.... and Stannis will fight to the end.



#13 Ygrain

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 01:03 AM

Maybe I'm a bit biased by the show, but I think it could be Shireen. If Mel or Selyse try to hurt her, he might not taking it very well...

 

 

 

The events of the next book should suck pretty hard for Lord Stannis.

 

If fAegon takes the Iron Throne, the Targaryen claim will be re-established, and by right of conquest, the Baratheon claim will be undone.

 

And if Jon is reborn, and is Azor Ahai as many suspect, Stannis is going to have to come to grips with the fact that he isn't, and that he's done some pretty fucked up things chasing a destiny that was never his, and he will likely watch Melisandre defect quickly to Jon's camp.

 

He will be left with nothing. A rebel Lord without lands, without a claim, and without a destiny.

 

Those things taken together would be enough to break him, I would think.

I think it is the latter, as well, but I do like JonCon Red Beard's suggestion, as well - that at the final moment when he is to sacrifice Shireen, he will back out, for love of her.



#14 Bog Devil of Greywater

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 01:04 AM

 

That makes no sense.... Aegon lost all his lands, he was taken to Essos, does that mean he lost his claim??? Of course not, he's still fighting for the Iron Throne. The only way for Stannis to lose his claim is if he accepts that Aegon is the true king, goes to him and swears that he will be his subject. That will not happen, as long as he fights he has a claim.... and Stannis will fight to the end.

 

Ok, to avoid the semantics game, yes, Stannis will still have a technical claim to both his lands and the Iron Throne. With 2,000 men half a continent away, good luck to him pressing either of those claims against fAegon who will own both through right of conquest with a large army to back it up.

 

His claim will be as good as lost to him, as it has been since he lost at Blackwater.



#15 Winterfell is Burning

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 01:29 AM

People still think that a line from a very minor character that calls a drunkard rapist obsessed with a dead girl that never loved him "true steel" is undeniable proof of something?

 

Everything from the end of ASOS is proof that Noye was wrong and Stannis does bend.

 

 

 

 

Ok, to avoid the semantics game, yes, Stannis will still have a technical claim to both his lands and the Iron Throne. With 2,000 men half a continent away, good luck to him pressing either of those claims against fAegon who will own both through right of conquest with a large army to back it up.

 

Which large army? So far, all fAegon has is the Golden Company's 10,000 men. If Stannis manages to win the North, he already has more. And there's a lot of things that might take care of him, like Dany, Greyscale, his true origin being revealed, etc.

 

That said, when he sailed to the Wall he abandoned the South for the time being. His priority is defeat the Others and he certainly didn't expect the 250 men he left at each of Dragonstone and Storm's End to hold them forever.


Edited by Winterfell is Burning, 11 July 2014 - 01:32 AM.


#16 Ygrain

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 01:35 AM

People still think that a line from a very minor character that calls a drunkard rapist obsessed with a dead girl that never loved him "true steel" is undeniable proof of something?

 

Everything from the end of ASOS is proof that Noye was wrong and Stannis does bend.

His assessment of Renly was a spot-on, though. And you are ignoring the fact that a major PoV character sees a similarity between Cat and Stannis and finds the "iron but brittle" fitting for Cat.



#17 willofDorne

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 01:38 AM

People still think that a line from a very minor character that calls a drunkard rapist obsessed with a dead girl that never loved him "true steel" is undeniable proof of something?

 

Everything from the end of ASOS is proof that Noye was wrong and Stannis does bend.

 

 

 

 

Which large army? So far, all fAegon has is the Golden Company's 10,000 men. If Stannis manages to win the North, he already has more. And there's a lot of things that might take care of him, like Dany, Greyscale, his true origin being revealed, etc.

 

That said, when he sailed to the Wall he abandoned the South for the time being. His priority is defeat the Others and he certainly didn't expect the 250 men he left at each of Dragonstone and Storm's End to hold them forever.

Yeah, what makes Renly not worth anything at the end of the day? Seems to me he was worth about 20,000 troops. 

 

And what makes Catelyn so brittle? She bore 5 children and came back to life to murder a bunch of Freys. 

 

And how is Robert "True Steel?"  He couldn't even fit his armor.

 

What a bunch of rubbish! 

 

Stannis the Mannis.



#18 Ygrain

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 01:44 AM

And what makes Catelyn so brittle? She bore 5 children and came back to life to murder a bunch of Freys. 

Is that a serious question? Did you somehow miss her breakdown over Bran's fall, or losing her mind seeing Robb killed? She broke. Very understandably, very humanly, but break she did.



#19 Bog Devil of Greywater

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 01:53 AM

Which large army? So far, all fAegon has is the Golden Company's 10,000 men. If Stannis manages to win the North, he already has more. And there's a lot of things that might take care of him, like Dany, Greyscale, his true origin being revealed, etc.

 

That said, when he sailed to the Wall he abandoned the South for the time being. His priority is defeat the Others and he certainly didn't expect the 250 men he left at each of Dragonstone and Storm's End to hold them forever.

 

The 10,000 men of the Golden Company is currently far more than Stannis has. Even if the North rises for Stannis, they're only rising if he restores the Starks. Manderly knows this, Lyanna Mormont has SAID this, and the Norreys, Wulls, and Liddles are primarily with Stannis at this moment only because they believe they're helping The Ned's little girl. There's no evidence that once they have their Stark that they'd realistically go anywhere, but especially not during the winter. 

 

Lots of things can happen to fAegon, I agree, and I expect it, frankly. But at this point, Stannis' choices have him wintering over in the North. So whatever happens to Aegon, it's not going to be Stannis pressing a claim.



#20 JonCon's Red Beard

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 02:02 AM

Everything from the end of ASOS is proof that Noye was wrong and Stannis does bend.

 

I agree with this. People often see the word "bend" as something negative, like it only means submission. It doesn't. It also means that a person is able to compromise, which is something Stannis does at the end of Storm and personally, I think he should have done that much before and not seeing Robb as an enemy but a potential ally. And in fact, his inability to bend caused him to break and lose Blackwater.

 

If Stannis really wanted to be a King he needed to learn how to "bend" a little and listen others' advice, which he is doing now. He not always will win every argument just because he's the King. In fact, thinking he's absolutely right just because he wears the crown is a case for a bad King. I think it was Jon who say you can say a negotiation was good when both parts aren't entirely satisfied (or something along those lines), meaning, both parts need to bend a little.

 

I think it is the latter, as well, but I do like JonCon Red Beard's suggestion, as well - that at the final moment when he is to sacrifice Shireen, he will back out, for love of her.

 

Yes. Stannis does love his daughter even though he's not exactly a man who demonstrates publicly that love —as many other tough rough harsh men in Westeros, I suppose. But I don't find any evidence of Stannis being annoyed by Shireen in the same way he's annoyed by Selyse.

 

I know that many people hates HBO portrays of Stannis (I could partially include myself in that bunch) but episode 2 of this season, during that very awkward dinner scene, it was very clear that Selyse dislikes Shireen because she has something she can't get no matter how hard she tries: Stannis' affection and attention. And it's very funny how Selyse describes Shireen negatively as "stubborn, sullen and sinful", when this are actually the words mostly people would identify Stannis with. At least in show, Shireen is indeed his father's daughter, and there is nothing Selyse can do about that. That scene is also very symbolic of their relationship: Selyse offers him something to eat that Stannis doesn't like and she can't do better because it's the only she can get. Not even bringing Melisandre to them as gained any favour with Stannis.

 

Now, can we see any of these in the books? Well, Stannis is deeply annoyed by Selyse's religious fanaticism and as one of the re-read threads suggest, he left the annoying knights with Selyse while he went to the North. He does consider Shireen his heir, but barely talks about his wife. We know he doesn't love her, but apparently, he doesn't even bears a bit of sympathy towards her.


Edited by JonCon's Red Beard, 11 July 2014 - 02:03 AM.