Did Sansa really have purple snakes in her hair?

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

I'm fear I'm dangerously close to Crackpot City here, but what the hell. I've compiled all the holes I can think of in Littlefinger's account. There's a lot.

For the record, we can take Littlefinger's account of events to Sansa to be, roughly:

Me and Olenna Tyrell plotted to poison Joffrey, with poison snuck into the wedding in your hairnet. And I arranged for some dwarf jousters, hoping to anger Tyrion so that he might make himself a suspect in the poisoning.

But is that what really happened?

(For the record: yes, it probably is.)

TL, DR version

Littlefinger is a dirty liar, and he didn't have anything to do with poisoning Joffrey.

Problems from the Tyrell perspective

The Tyrells planned to take Sansa to Highgarden after the wedding, and this plan didn't get scotched until after Sansa had been given the hairnet. This seems dangerous. Sansa would have been a prime suspect if anybody had thought to suspect poison, and a search might've uncovered the hairnet. She may have been a patsy, but she still posed certain risks. She might have spoken of whatever agent Littlefinger used (the Tyrells would have had to trust that Littlefinger was capable of covering his tracks); she might have mentioned the conversation she'd had with Olenna and Margaery, about Joffrey (which might have made the Tyrells look suspicious); and she might've been executed or jailed for regicide (which would have been a waste of a valuable game-piece).

Olenna told Sansa they'd take her to Highgarden after the wedding. But Littlefinger's plan with Dontos was already in place, and if Littlefinger was working with the Tyrells, then there's some doubling-up here. Why tell Sansa you aim to marry her to Willas, if you're already scheming to sneak her out of town anyway? Again, this is an unnecessary risk: what if Sansa blabs? (As indeed she did, to Dontos.)

When Sansa was married to Tyrion, did the Tyrells suspect Littlefinger was the one who'd fingered them to Tywin? (Pun super intended.) I'd thought so... but it's possible they just thought Sansa had said something out of turn, or had maybe gone directly to Cersei, like a fool. This may explain why they behaved so coolly toward Sansa after the wedding: they thought she might've betrayed them. Then, later, perhaps suspecting she was still a virgin, they approached her at the wedding to talk about bringing her to Highgarden. I suppose that fits. But the point is, if they'd been scheming with Littlefinger and then suspected that he might've sold them out to Tywin over a marriage, why would they then co-operate with him for a regicide?

If it went down as Littlefinger said so, then the Tyrells know that both he and Sansa were involved in the poisoning, and that Littlefinger's responsible for her escape. Which means that the Tyrells can make a pretty good guess at where Sansa is. Sure, they couldn't tell anybody, but they might try to find Sansa themselves. A few questions in the Vale would reveal the existence of Littlefinger's bastard daughter Alayne, and that's a ruse that wouldn't last long to someone who already suspected him of harbouring Sansa. And yet, so far as we know, nobody's been making those inquiries.

Problems from Littlefinger's end

In order for the plan to work as LF said it did, he would have had to have direct contact with Olenna to plan it: "Okay, Queen of Thornes, I'll hide the poison in Sansa's hairnet, cool? Don't tell anybody, lol!" This seems extremely risky.

Littlefinger's modus operandi heretofore has been to sow discord at several removes by pitting great houses against each other, finding opportunities in the resulting chaos. He could achieve this goal merely by setting up a situation where Loras Tyrell joined the Kingsguard and Margaery married Joffrey. He wouldn't have been the only one to recognise that as a recipe for disaster; one which could have brought chaos to King's Landing. (Indeed, he may have counted on Olenna Tyrell noticing it too...)

In that vein, the dwarf jousting may merely have been a way to drive a wedge between Tyrion and Joffrey (and Cersei).

Let's say Littlefinger didn't know about the poisoning, and his plan was merely to sneak Sansa out on the wedding night. I submit that's a better plan. There would have been enough of a hubbub and distraction already, and it would have taken people longer to notice that Sansa was missing, because nobody would be looking for her. Plus, she may have been able to leave early, if the dwarf jousting made Tyrion storm out.

Littlefinger actually doesn't admit to being involved in the poisoning at all - he just lets Sansa think so. You could easily read what he says about Olenna's motives as his own guesses from when he was at Highgarden, or Bitterbridge or wherever it was, while he tried to plant the seeds for a catastrophe. And, crucially, he doesn't tell her it was Olenna until Sansa says that it was she who fiddled with the hairnet. This might all require some awfully quick thinking, but that wouldn't be out of character for Littlefinger, who previously whipped up an amazing lie about a dagger off the top of his head. Now, he had absolutely no idea whose dagger that was, or who tried to kill Bran - but he knew what he wanted out of the situation, and he pushed things in that direction. And he's actually had a few days to think about things before he tells Sansa about the hairnet.

Prophecy, schmophecy

So, the prophecy said she had purple snakes - so what? Prophecies are tricksy things. Maybe Sansa's belief that she carried the poison is enough to fool the Ghost of High Heart. There are other prophecies that have been misinterpreted:

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/Prophecies/Entry/5451

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/Prophecies/Entry/1809 (this one's a misinterpretation based on a lie that's widely believed)

Black amethysts from Asshai

Not purple ones.

Dontos

In the godswood, Dontos tells Sansa Joffrey choked. Either he's sincere, which means that he's ignorant of any plot to kill Joffrey, or he knows that accidental choking is the cover story for Joffrey's death, in which case he's ignorant of any plot to frame Tyrion.

Anything else?

Quoth Martin:

"I think the idea with Joffrey’s death was to make it look like an accident... I think that’s what the murderers here were hoping for — the whole realm will see Joffrey choke to death on a piece of pie or something. But what they didn’t count on, was Cersei’s immediate assumption that this was murder."

http://insidetv.ew.com/2014/04/13/george-r-r-martin-why-joffrey-killed/

If Littlefinger aimed to make it look like an accident, then why bother with the dwarf jousting? It certainly seems possible that, in the context of plotting a regicide, provoking Tyrion to rage might make him a suspect.

So what really happened?

Option #1: it happened exactly like Littlefinger said, albeit there would have had to have been some direct contact between him and Olenna Tyrell. It was supposed to look like an accident. Tyrion's framing is also an accident; the dwarf jousting was just a wind-up.

Option #2: it happened like he said, and the Tyrells wanted it to look like an accident, but Littlefinger added the dwarf jousting hoping to frame Tyrion on top of everything else.

Option #3: Same as option 1 or 2, but the plan was for Sansa to go to Highgarden afterwards, and Littlefinger double-crossed the Tyrells.

Option #4: Littlefinger wasn't involved in the regicide, but suspected (or hoped) that one might happen, having done his best to give the Tyrells the idea. He had Sansa wear the hairnet in case he needed to tell her she'd carried in some poison.

Option #5: Littlefinger was completely surprised by the poisoning, but just rolled with it, in which case I don't know what the hairnet was for. Perhaps he planned to tell her they were magic crystals full of invisibility powers, that let her escape King's Landing?

Flaws

Littlefinger knew Joffrey was dead before Sansa or Dontos said anything to him. I suppose Oswell Kettleblack could have quickly whispered something, but that's pretty flimsy. He could have heard the bells tolling, though - and it isn't a big leap to imagine that a 13-yr old king's death might be suspicious, or that Sansa would be suspected of it, as he says.

The hairnet did have a stone missing, and a smudge in the socket.

Seriously, what the hell was the point of the hairnet, if not to smuggle poison?

Any more? Fire away!

[Mithras]

LF's explanations about the PW are not gospel. I think we need a Tyrell POV to decide what really happened for sure.

[Easy Waters]

Maybe the Dwarfs joust was meant to make Tyrion furious and leave the wedding, thus making his guilt less obvious and perhaps to help smuggling his wife either to Highgarden or to the Eyrie.

On the other hand, Littlefinger has already tried to frame Tyrion with the murder attempt of Bran. Maybe he holds a grudge against him.

[Crowford]

I actually quite like the combination of options #2 and #3. Littlefinger going along with the Tyrell plot (which, in my opinion, also included the later poisoning of Tywin, though Littlefinger might not have been aware of that), and then at the last moment changing the rules. With Tyrion being the prime suspect and Sansa considered his accomplice, he seemingly gets total control over Sansa. He makes it clear that she has no other chance than to stay with him now, Tyrion, who doesn't have a Littlefinger-sponsored rescue service is almost certainly jailed and executed, legally freeing Sansa to marry again (and even if he survives and goes on the run, which ultimately happened, he is a lot easier to discredit).

Yes, the Tyrells probably suspect that Sansa is at the Vale now, but there is little they can do with that information. They might be supremely pissed off at Littlefinger, but that doesn't mean they would stand to gain anything from tipping the Lannisters off as to her location. At worst, they manage to implicate themselves in the plot. And if you look at what Littlefinger is doing, you see that he is rapidly trying to move all the pieces into place so that it doesn't matter if Alayne's true identity gets out.

[Mladen]

I believe that show sealed whatever doubt we had. Joffrey died feom poison hidden at Sansa's hairnet given to her by Dontos who was ordered bz LF who plotted with Olenna.

[Mithras]

I believe that show sealed whatever doubt we had. Joffrey died feom poison hidden at Sansa's hairnet given to her by Dontos who was ordered bz LF who plotted with Olenna.

[Martin pauses for a moment.] You've read the books?

Yes.

Who kills Joffrey?

That killing happens early in this fourth season. The books, of course, are well past the poisoning of King Joffrey.

In the books – and I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal – the conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa's hairnet, so that if anyone did think it was poison, then Sansa would be blamed for it. Sansa had certainly good reason for it.

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/news/george-r-r-martin-the-rolling-stone-interview-20140423?page=4#ixzz387LPAC29

Follow us: @rollingstone on Twitter | RollingStone on Facebook

Then why did GRRM speak like this?

[Colonel Green]

Then why did GRRM speak like this?

He does that from time to time, to maintain a sense of mystery.

Littlefinger's theory fits with all the evidence (indeed, Littlefinger's version of events has more independent corroborating evidence than most of the other secretive machinations in the series). No competing explanation makes sense. And the show has gone with the book version, more or less. If you assume that Martin has come up with an convoluted-as-hell alternative version of events, you would have to assume there was an actual reason for it, and I've yet to see anybody explain why their alternative theory is justified in the narrative. What purpose is served if, for instance, the Tyrells were trying to kill Tyrion (which makes no sense for a whole bunch of other reasons, anyway)? It's meaningless.

[Mithras]

He does that from time to time, to maintain a sense of mystery.

Littlefinger's theory fits with all the evidence (indeed, Littlefinger's version of events has more independent corroborating evidence than most of the other secretive machinations in the series). No competing explanation makes sense. And the show has gone with the book version, more or less. If you assume that Martin has come up with an convoluted-as-hell alternative version of events, you would have to assume there was an actual reason for it, and I've yet to see anybody explain why their alternative theory is justified in the narrative. What purpose is served if, for instance, the Tyrells were trying to kill Tyrion (which makes no sense for a whole bunch of other reasons, anyway)? It's meaningless.

But there is no need to maintain a mystery anymore. ASoS was almost 15 years ago and the show made everything clear. IMO, the canon story does not make sense at all.

[Mladen]

But there is no need to maintain a mystery anymore. ASoS was almost 15 years ago and the show made everything clear. IMO, the canon story does not make sense at all.

Generally, the story is not that senseless. Simply, teo different goals overlapping in one enemy. As Colonel Green said, Martin does want to maintain the mystery. I generally don't take show as canon but I do think this is closed case.

[Mithras]

I do not believe in cooperation between LF and the Tyrells unless GRRM plainly says himself. You don’t plot the murder of a king at his wedding with an upjumped jackanapes like LF. We know that LF praised Joffrey to the skies while his servants spread the tales of his monstrosities. That is how he manipulated the Tyrells. He cannot approach them to offer murdering Joffrey nor the Tyrells might approach him. There is no trust between them.

[aryagonnakill#2]

I think it is clear that Baelish wanted Tyrion arrested to have Sansa be free to marry, given that, it makes perfect sense.

[yolkboy]

[Martin pauses for a moment.] You've read the books?

Yes.

Who kills Joffrey?

That killing happens early in this fourth season. The books, of course, are well past the poisoning of King Joffrey.

In the books – and I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal – the conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa's hairnet, so that if anyone did think it was poison, then Sansa would be blamed for it. Sansa had certainly good reason for it.

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/news/george-r-r-martin-the-rolling-stone-interview-20140423?page=4#ixzz387LPAC29

Follow us: @rollingstone on Twitter | RollingStone on Facebook

Then why did GRRM speak like this?

This is precisely why we shouldn't be using the books to 'confirm' anything. It seems there might be more purple wedding reveals that the show likely wouldn't bother to follow, given the nature of their medium and canon.

Given Olenna was described as being behind Tyrion, who was blocking her path to the chalice - and that Marg was the only other person in arms reach at the time the poison must've been dropped (remember Strangler works instantaneously so we can discern the poisoning window) - perhaps it might turn out that Marg did the deed.

[Colonel Green]

I do not believe in cooperation between LF and the Tyrells unless GRRM plainly says himself. You don’t plot the murder of a king at his wedding with an upjumped jackanapes like LF. We know that LF praised Joffrey to the skies while his servants spread the tales of his monstrosities. That is how he manipulated the Tyrells. He cannot approach them to offer murdering Joffrey nor the Tyrells might approach him. There is no trust between them.

Why do you keep messing with the font?

Exactly how the interactions between Littlefinger and Olenna went is open to debate, but that's a trivial part of the plot. The target was Joffrey. The weapon was poison, taken from the hairnet by Olenna, and put in the wine. Those are the key points.

[Ser Creighton]

This is precisely why we shouldn't be using the books to 'confirm' anything. It seems there might be more purple wedding reveals that the show likely wouldn't bother to follow, given the nature of their medium and canon.

Given Olenna was described as being behind Tyrion, who was blocking her path to the chalice - and that Marg was the only other person in arms reach at the time the poison must've been dropped (remember Strangler works instantaneously so we can discern the poisoning window) - perhaps it might turn out that Marg did the deed.

It very well could of been Marg, she was raised and groomed by Olenna and why wouldn't she be in on it?

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Well, LF is a known liar. Not like Varys, who speaks the truth while keeping it disguised. He plainly lies. Like saying he slept with both Cat and Lysa.

[yolkboy]

Well, LF is a known liar. Not like Varys, who speaks the truth while keeping it disguised. He plainly lies. Like saying he slept with both Cat and Lysa.

LF is a huge liar I agree, but with Cat and Lysa he's telling the truth - as he sees it anyway. He thought it was Cat sneaking into his room but it was Lysa.

[LordStoneheart]

Your two prophecy examples don't disprove the Ghost. For one, Reek did kill Bran and Rickon, in that the Northerners believed it, and now they're both missing. Melony has proved herself wrong time and time again. Her being wrong has no bearing on the Ghost of High Heart, who has not been wrong once. Go look at all her visions. They're a strange marriage of vague and spot-on.

LF is a huge liar I agree, but with Cat and Lysa he's telling the truth - as he sees it anyway. He thought it was Cat sneaking into his room but it was Lysa.

I'm afraid that's still a lie. An unintentional one maybe. Bragging about it at court suggests he knows it wasn't her.

[Mithras]

Why do you keep messing with the font?

Exactly how the interactions between Littlefinger and Olenna went is open to debate, but that's a trivial part of the plot. The target was Joffrey. The weapon was poison, taken from the hairnet by Olenna, and put in the wine. Those are the key points.

I think that is the starting point. Once you cross that threshold, everything about the canon PW plot starts to fall apart. Those key points might have other explanations. For example Sansa’s hairnet might have the poison but that poison should not necessarily be the killer.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Yes, the Tyrells probably suspect that Sansa is at the Vale now, but there is little they can do with that information. They might be supremely pissed off at Littlefinger, but that doesn't mean they would stand to gain anything from tipping the Lannisters off as to her location. At worst, they manage to implicate themselves in the plot.

There's nothing to gain from tipping off the Lannisters, true, but they could perhaps have a sneaky Tyrell person combing the Vale in secret, ready to scoop Sansa up and drag her back to Highgarden. And maybe throw Littlefinger down a well.

And if you look at what Littlefinger is doing, you see that he is rapidly trying to move all the pieces into place so that it doesn't matter if Alayne's true identity gets out.

That's an intriguing notion. How might that work?

Then why did GRRM speak like this?

To leave his options open in case he decides to drop a bombshell in the future, and to maintain, as someone else said, mystery. If he only ever said "I'm not saying this is going to happen" when talking about things that definitely wouldn't happen, then readers might be able to infer from his statements the future plot twists of his series. So, there must be a smokescreen, even if it's not needed, i.e. when readers are off the mark.

Littlefinger's theory fits with all the evidence (indeed, Littlefinger's version of events has more independent corroborating evidence than most of the other secretive machinations in the series). No competing explanation makes sense. And the show has gone with the book version, more or less. If you assume that Martin has come up with an convoluted-as-hell alternative version of events, you would have to assume there was an actual reason for it, and I've yet to see anybody explain why their alternative theory is justified in the narrative. What purpose is served if, for instance, the Tyrells were trying to kill Tyrion (which makes no sense for a whole bunch of other reasons, anyway)? It's meaningless.

Here's a reason: the Tyrells poisoned Joffrey, for exactly the reasons stated, but Littlefinger wasn't in on it, beyond trying to create a situation where the Tyrells may find it necessary to kill the king. Littlefinger set up the dwarf jousting, purely to irritate Tyrion and drive a wedge between him and the king. That Tyrion ended up accused of murder is a complete accident, one of many pieces of unfortunate happenstance in the story. They make their plans, and the gods smash them all to pieces, or whatever Doran said.

To be clearer about this scenario: the Tyrell women are unable to convince Mace not to have Loras join the Kingsguard. They genuinely fear disaster if Loras should defend Margaery from Joffrey. Better to kill Joffrey, after the wedding, but before consummation: that way Margaery's still a maiden but the Tyrells have demonstrated their commitment to the Lannisters and are as closely entwined as can be. All the energies are still flowing in the same direction - Mace still wants to be royalty, Tywin stills needs Mace's army - and there's Tommen, ready and waiting to make the situation work.

That's one way it could've worked.

I think it is clear that Baelish wanted Tyrion arrested to have Sansa be free to marry, given that that makes perfect sense.

And that's another.

Your two prophecy examples don't disprove the Ghost. For one, Reek did kill Bran and Rickon, in that the Northerners believed it, and now they're both missing. Melony has proved herself wrong time and time again. Her being wrong has no bearing on the Ghost of High Heart, who has not been wrong once. Go look at all her visions. They're a strange marriage of vague and spot-on.

Yeah, I checked her visions. Alls I'm saying is that it's possible to visions to be misinterpreted, or to be affected by what people think is real rather than what's actually real. Jojen's vision of Reek is the best example of that. Jojen doesn't believe it, IIRC, because he knows Bran and Rickon and maybe has other dreams of what's to come, but he still has the vision of them dying, based on the fact that everybody will think they died. Similarly, the Ghost maybe - maybe - is seeing what Sansa thinks is real, rather than what's really real.

I admit it, it's pretty thin.

[ache]

I do not believe in cooperation between LF and the Tyrells unless GRRM plainly says himself. You don’t plot the murder of a king at his wedding with an upjumped jackanapes like LF. We know that LF praised Joffrey to the skies while his servants spread the tales of his monstrosities. That is how he manipulated the Tyrells. He cannot approach them to offer murdering Joffrey nor the Tyrells might approach him. There is no trust between them.

I agree. I think Olenna is far too canny to get involved in any scheme with Littlefinger. Even if she doesn't know details, I'm sure she's clever enough to realize Lf stepped on quite a few people in his rapid climb, I don't think she'd allow herself to chance being one of them.

LF is a huge liar I agree, but with Cat and Lysa he's telling the truth - as he sees it anyway. He thought it was Cat sneaking into his room but it was Lysa.

No way Littlefinger honestly believes it was Cat he slept with. To believe that, you'd have to believe Lysa didn't mention it the next time she saw him. And the next, and the next...