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Robb Could Have Won


Sir Lee knot

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I've seen several people say that Robb's war was a lost cause and he was bound to die. I can't get behind this. At one point he almost captured Tywin which would have effectively ended the war.



Let's say Roose was never working against Robb so RW doesn't happen. I've heard it said that the Lannister-Tyrell alliance was far to powerful to oppose. But that's not what we see in the Books. They can hardly


co-ordinate an effective effort, they spread their armies far and thin, and for the most part their commanders aren't anything special. Robb would have picked them apart piece by piece until they give up.



You have to remember that Robb is on the defensive. For autonomy all he has to do is bloody the Lannisters and Tyrells until they sue for peace. While the opposing force would have had to conquer the Riverlands and the North which is significantly harder then Robb's task.


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Except the question becomes: what would Robb winning actually mean? He isn't after the Iron Throne himself (probably a mistake), but rather is wandering around the South without a clear aim in mind. The moment the South coalesces, he's screwed. Meanwhile, of course, there's the litany of mistakes he makes on a political level; Robb never understood the maxim that war is politics by other means.



(And no, the North could not achieve long term independence via force of arms anyway. Robb was doomed the moment he put on that crown).


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Except the question becomes: what would Robb winning actually mean? He isn't after the Iron Throne himself (probably a mistake), but rather is wandering around the South without a clear aim in mind. The moment the South coalesces, he's screwed. Meanwhile, of course, there's the litany of mistakes he makes on a political level; Robb never understood the maxim that war is politics by other means.

(And no, the North could not achieve long term independence via force of arms anyway. Robb was doomed the moment he put on that crown).

What should have happened is when they tried to crown him he should have told them "My father fought beside Robert to win the Iron Throne, the Tullys and Arryns fought for Robert's Crown and I believe in the Baratheon Crown. But Joffery is no Baratheon. We fight restore a true King and free my family"

Then could have cut a deal with either Renly or Stannis and won. The Lannisters would be gone and a new family would be in power in the Westerlands. Renly would have helped destroy the Iron Born. Lyssa would probably be striped of her role in the Vale.

You are absolutely right, the moment Robb took the crown he was doomed

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The problem is he is tied to the Riverlands, an area that's been invaded and conquered over and over agian.

If he just had the North he could have held it forever but he could not do that with the Riverlands.

With no ally to help he had to either take King's Landing or give up the Riverlands.

The Riverlands seemed pretty fine in RR. You couldn't expect Robb to just stay up north and wait for Tywin

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Very true. In late Game, he had de facto won. During Clash, he pushed onward. Only in Storm, he was on the defensive, but still holding on. After the Purple Wedding, he would once again be the top dog.



Truth to tell, I've got the impression everybody who claims that Robb could never win regards possession of the IT as a limitless spawnpoint for troops, resources and loyalty. :bs:





Except the question becomes: what would Robb winning actually mean? He isn't after the Iron Throne himself (probably a mistake), but rather is wandering around the South without a clear aim in mind. The moment the South coalesces, he's screwed. Meanwhile, of course, there's the litany of mistakes he makes on a political level; Robb never understood the maxim that war is politics by other means.



(And no, the North could not achieve long term independence via force of arms anyway. Robb was doomed the moment he put on that crown).




The Seven Kingdoms fracturing.



The natural lines for that would be North/Riverlands, Vale, Iron Islands, Dorne, Reach/Stormlands, with the Westerlands and Crownlands split up.


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Except the question becomes: what would Robb winning actually mean? He isn't after the Iron Throne himself (probably a mistake), but rather is wandering around the South without a clear aim in mind. The moment the South coalesces, he's screwed. Meanwhile, of course, there's the litany of mistakes he makes on a political level; Robb never understood the maxim that war is politics by other means.

(And no, the North could not achieve long term independence via force of arms anyway. Robb was doomed the moment he put on that crown).

Robb winning means defeating the Lannisters and getting his sisters back. He didn't have a clear idea who should sit the IT (not surprising given the confusion). Renly gets shadowbabyed but we see that Robb is happy for Stannis to take the IT. We don't know how the other regions would respond to Stannis but we know Stannis wants to rule the entire realm. As long as the terms are good (as in, no requirement to accept Rh'llor) and the northern lords are happy, Robb probably bends the knee because why would he fight Stannis? Agreed that the lack of politcal understanding was probably his major downfall.

The OP makes a good point of the Lannisters and Tyrells. They fight each other pretty soon after allying and the Lannister forces are drastically reduced. The Tyrells have a numerical advantage but Mace Tyrell is no battle commander. Randyll Tarly on the other hand... But remember, the Tyrells would have been happy enough to allow northern independence, so he could still have won if not for RW and related events. Or he could still have lost.

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But Roose was working against Robb. Even if he wasn't, Robb's army was too small, half the Northern forces were stuck behind Moat Cailin and the Tyrell-Lannister army can muster 100,000 men, and split into 30k,30k and 40k, all significantly larger forces than Robb's.

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The main turning point was when the Vale didn't join in, the 40,000 troops could and would of made a difference

Yep. A North, Riverlands and Vale united front (even if the Vale was an independent kingdom) would have easily defeated Tywin, who would have been stuck in Harrenhal with the God's Eye to the south and three armies surrounding him from the north, east and west.

Even if the Tyrells enter the game, which is not certain with Tywin dead, they still have more than a decent chance of victory, specially with Mace Tyrell in charge of their forces.

Alternatively, if he simply had not gone to the Twins, he would be fine because the Lannister-Tyrell coalition begun to fall apart as soon as the PW happened.

People who say it was impossible for him to win are just buying into the "Tywin Lannister is almighty and an invincible genius" Lannister kool-aid and not reading what actually happened.

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How on earth could Robb achieve such a break up, given that neither Tywin Lannister nor Renly Baratheon nor Stannis Baratheon would have permitted it?



Robb may be winning victory after victory, but the point is that he's doing nothing with those victories. He's not getting any closer to achieving the (reasonable) aim of destroying Lannister power and getting his sisters back (declaring independence alienates potential allies), nor is he getting closer to achieving the (unreasonable) aim of Northern independence.


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As for the Vale, this comes back to the independence issue being foolish. The Vale doesn't want to secede. Why would it? It is culturally and economically part of the South, and far wealthier than the North. Even leaving aside Lysa Arryn, what motive would they have to approve a breakup, when they would otherwise be happy to gang up on the Lannisters and leave it at that?


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How on earth could Robb achieve such a break up, given that neither Tywin Lannister nor Renly Baratheon nor Stannis Baratheon would have permitted it?

Robb may be winning victory after victory, but the point is that he's doing nothing with those victories. He's not getting any closer to achieving the (reasonable) aim of destroying Lannister power and getting his sisters back (declaring independence alienates potential allies), nor is he getting closer to achieving the (unreasonable) aim of Northern independence.

What's unreasonable about a Northern independence?

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