Did The Wildlings Have A Chance?

[Sir Lee knot]

I've made one of these threads before but I have some more thoughts on it.

GRRM seems to have made a great deal of the threat that Mance poses but it all kind of comes crumbling down when they were beaten by 1,000-2,000 armored knights. But perhaps they aren't actually that god awful.

In the battle of Okehazama 2,000 soldiers led by Oda Nobunaga defeated 25,000-40,000 soldiers from Imagawa Yoshimoto's army (the exact number is disputed). While the Imagawa camp were partying in celebration of the surely easy victory, Oda Nobunaga had his small force sneak up on them under the cover of night and rainfall. The attack was so unexpected and sudden that Imagawa didn't even know what was going on until a few minutes before death. After his death, his army scattered.

In that battle both sides had equal quality of troops. They were both using Samurai and Ashigaru. So it goes to show that Stannis didn't need the superior tech, although it certainly didn't hurt. It also shows that he could have very easily lost if it wasn't for the sneak attack.

The Wildling warriors remind me of Celtic warriors not the untrained pitchfork levies or cavemen most people seem to picture. It's been stated many times they have a certain ferocity to them. However that being said, their equipment quality is shit. Stone, obsidian and bone don't stand up to even some of the most moderate types of armor. So what if Mance managed to take the Night's Watch's castles. He'd be able to supply his army with real steel and armor. Could he then have any chance against Roose or the Ironborn?

Also how big is Mance's army?

My estimate is 100,000 people but out of them only like 30,000-40,000 fighting men.

[Game Of Thrones]

20,000 warriors out of 100,000 wildlings in host. It's canon.

[SunflashJT]

The wildlings really didn't stand a chance at all. They all hated each other so they didn't care for their fellow man. You need discipline and common purpose to be successful. They had common purpose in getting to the other side of the wall but not fighting against armored Knights. They also had no discipline so they got routed early, once hundreds begin to flee a battle it doesn't take long for thousands to flee.

[Talking Hodor]

If Mance had chosen to negotiate with the NW instead of attacking them, they might have survived the encounter.

[The Drunkard]

I've assumed that the host would collapse and scatter after crossing the Wall. While Mance and some others would know that holding the Wall is the best defense against the Others, I imagine most would see their goal achieved upon getting on the safe side, and then disperse south. Even among the fighters who stick with Mance I don't think he'd have quite the pull with them as he did when they were on the dangerous side, as after all they can pack up and try their luck raiding or assimilating with the kneelers if things become too uncomfortable. Supplies would also be a problem, just taking into account food, the NW was struggling to feed a few thousand for a short period of time, and Mance couldn't call upon lords to help, and wouldn't have the IB's help.

So no, I don't think a wildling army would ever be a threat to someone like Roose. A major pain in the ass, though.

[Sir Lee knot]

20,000 warriors out of 100,000 wildlings in host. It's canon.

Can you provide some evidence?

They also had no discipline so they got routed early, once hundreds begin to flee a battle it doesn't take long for thousands to flee.

To be fair. As I explained in the post. At least in that battle they didn't lose to a lack of discipline in fact we can see them trying to form up. The problem was the sneak attack which I believe most armies would have failed as well in that situation.

[I'm the Party Pooper]

They might have won some battle.

As history teaches though, they are well dead meat against the combined force of all North or even Westerns itself.

Unless u want to consider nitty gritty scenario that depends on particular events going in a way rather than another onto which we have absolutely no information and can only do speculation.

In order to establish whether they had a "chance", you should better clearly identify a specific goal to start with.

A chance for what?

Fight to the last man?

Conquer the wall and live there hoping the Iron Throne and the North won't ever try to get it back?

Conquer the North hoping the Iron Throne won't tem to get it back?

Conquer a sea city and set sail to Essos fleeing as far as possible from the white walkers?

[Blackfyre Gateau]

Against the smallfolk of the north, the beleaguered remnants of the Night's Watch (including those under Bowen Marsh who were 'in the field') and the last few Umbers and others in the far north, probably yes, given the Iron Born had cut off Robb's armies. The Wildlings could have routed out holdfasts and castles and made them secure or even gone into the mountains, scattering the mountain clans by sheer weight of numbers.

Against drilled soldiers and horsemen under Stannis, no.

Against a pre Ned's death, North - Not a chance in hell.

[Wmarshal]

Sure, they could have raped and pillage the gift folk for a bit until Crowseye came to kill them all, that is if Stannis never came. Mance was not a brilliant leader, his actions proved it.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

No, not a chance in hell.

They could beat the NW, they could disperse into the North raiding the villages until they are all hunted down in a couple years, but they can't beat a real host. The Umbers may have been able to beat them on their own.

Can you provide some evidence?

Stannis beat Mance Rayder "even though he had twenty times my numbers". It's in the Theon Gift chapter.

[fuem]

No. Davis said Stannis left DragonStone with what 1,500 men and they beat what lets say 18,000 warriors ?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Who is Davis and what's his authority on the books?

I'll rather rely on Stannis. He knows his stuff and is not somebody to inflate the numbers to brag. Anyway, he only has 1,500 men in total, including the 200 on Dragonstone and 300 in Storms End. He sailed for the Wall with 1,100, now down to 1,000.

[Sir Lee knot]

Who is Davis and what's his authority on the books?

I'll rather rely on Stannis. He knows his stuff and is not somebody to inflate the numbers to brag. Anyway, he only has 1,500 men in total, including the 200 on Dragonstone and 300 in Storms End. He sailed for the Wall with 1,100, now down to 1,000.

I think he means Davos...

I agree that Stannis's assessment is probably accurate but the way he said it seems more like a rough estimate rather then a precise count. And having 1,500 men would mean Mance had 30k not 20k. But thanks for siting the source.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I agree that Stannis's assessment is probably accurate but the way he said it seems more like a rough estimate rather then a precise count. And having 1,500 men would mean Mance had 30k not 20k. But thanks for siting the source.

Of course it's somewhat rough and I won't argue whether its 19 times his number or 21 times. But 12 is too far off.