R+L=J v.93

[BearQueen87]

What possible clues do we have that Elia didn't love Rhaegar ? We have zero indications in the books about Elia's feelings for Rhaegar. We just know that Rhaegar didn't love Elia but was "fond of her". So, most likely they were good friends but it could also have been an unrequited love.

I think Elia loved him in the sense that she respected him and honored him as her husband and father to her children. I think they had a great partnership as allies and confidants. But I agree 100% that as of right now we have no indication about Elia's feelings about anything really. She's a quiet player in all this.

[Jon_Samwell_Snow]

What possible clues do we have that Elia didn't love Rhaegar ? We have zero indications in the books about Elia's feelings for Rhaegar. We just know that Rhaegar didn't love Elia but was "fond of her". So, most likely they were good friends but it could also have been an unrequited love.

Also, they were in arranged marriage.

It took years for Catelyn to fall for Ned. She was promised to Brandon.

[Ellfoy]

Rhaenys died at four I think so Rhaegar and Elia were married for at least 5 years (well, less the year when he rode to the sunset with Lyanna) so it's not nothing. Just saying that it could have been an unrequited love, especially since it seems that Rhaegar had plenty of success with women. If even Cersei prefered him to her golden Jaime at some point...

[Jon_Samwell_Snow]

Rhaenys died at four I think so Rhaegar and Elia were married for at least 5 years (well, less the year when he rode to the sunset with Lyanna) so it's not nothing. Just saying that it could have been an unrequited love, especially since it seems that Rhaegar had plenty of success with women. If even Cersei prefered him to her golden Jaime at some point...

Cersei had a little school girl crush on him.

[Lord Varys]

On the tourney:

We know that the tourney took several days, perhaps even weeks, and we know that you don't have to enter the lists on every day, which is why I'd not be surprised one bit if it turned out that Rhaegar only entered the lists after the Knight of the Laughing Tree incident. There is a rather subtle clue in that directions, since as far as I know, Aerys only demanded an investigation after the mystery knight did not show up on the next day. If Rhaegar had entered the lists on that day, he would have had little/no time to investigate the whole issue, or spend time with Lyanna without anyone noticing it...

My assessment of the love between Rhaegar in Lyanna is that this was a mad, passionate love beginning at Harrenhal - hormones, the feeling that this girl/man is my soul mate, this kind of stuff. I really think Rhaegar wanted to get that across, not just his admiration how Lyanna secretly subverted the gender roles. And i also don't said that the mystery knight was no big issue, I just meant to say that I don't see any reason why Rhaegar should care about this affair before his father starts to get paranoid about this guy...

On Elia:

Well, there is no hint whatsoever that Elia did love Rhaegar. I admit, that we have only explicit confirmation that Rhaegar was 'fond of his wife' (which is just a euphemism for 'he didn't despise her'), but I think we can interpret the fact that she did not openly condemn her husband for his adultery as a strong hint that she, personally, was not jealous (which, in turn, would suggest that she was not really in love with Rhaegar). The Martells are a powerful house, and one should suspect that a woman in love who was treated the way Elia was treated would have returned to Sunspear or something like that.

To get back on the time line thing/motivational stuff:

1. Rhaegar is born at Summerhall. Aemon (and possible Jaehaerys/Aerys/Rhaella, too) start to believe Rhaegar might be the promised prince due because he supposed to be born from the line of Aerys/Rhaella, and because Summerhall might be 'the place of smoke and salt' (smoke from the fire consuming Summerhall, salt from the tears of the survivors.

2. Rhaegar eventually found out what it meant to be the promised prince - either by reading the prophecy Jaehaerys knew (he must have known who the promised prince was supposed to be, when the Ghost of High Heart convinced him that he would be born from the line of Aerys/Rhaella), or by stumbling upon another (not all that likely). He thought he had to become a warrior.

3. Certain events must have led Rhaegar to doubt that he was the promised prince. Perhaps he just feared the responsibility, or he started to second guess the Summerhall interpretation. The fact that he had no (surviving) brothers and sisters for a long time led him to believe that if even if he was not the promised prince, he would have to born from his line (since only he was likely to continue the line of his parents).

4. In the night of Aegon's conception (the fact that he could identify the night, strongly suggests that Elia and Rhaegar were not intimate all that often) - shortly before Harrenhal - Rhaegar saw a comet above KL (or was later told that a comet was seen above KL in that night). He was by then convinced that he was not the promised prince, and thus receptive to the possibility that his son by Elia - if it would indeed be a son - might be the promised prince. When Elia gave birth to Aegon some time after Harrenhal (I guess 3-5 months later), he thought his interpretations was correct.

5. Harrenhal was supposed to be a covert Great Council to depose Aerys. Rhaegar backed down when he learned that his father would attend. He had to tread very carefully because Aerys had still (or perhaps because of his madness?) a strong power base. Rhaegar met and fell in love with Lyanna Stark. He crowned her to the Queen of Love and Beauty to express his feelings for her. Various people took offense (Aerys, the Starks, Robert, possibly Elia herself etc.).

Lyanna and Rhaegar stay somehow in touch after the tourney. Perhaps they have already decided that they would run away before Lyanna is married to Robert/after Rhaegar's son by Elia is born?

6. After Rhaegar/Elia's return to Dragonstone, and Aegon is born, Rhaegar knows that he needs another woman to give birth to his third child. 'Prophetic demands' and love happily coincide, and Rhaegar gladly jumps on the chance to follow his passions because this is (also) necessary to save the world...

7. Elia and her children eventually become hostages against the Dornishmen (and perhaps against Rhaegar himself). Aerys executes Brandon/Rickard and companions because he suspects they were conspiring with Rhaegar against him (just as the Dornishmen were/are). the war begins.

Did Rhaegar change his mind on the identity of the promised prince yet again?

I don't think so. There would have been no reason. Another child was necessary anyway, according to his reading of the prophecy, and Aegon has just been confirmed to be the promised prince by a comet.

Did Rhaegar marry Lyanna?

Possibly. I guess he would have gone through with this if this was, above all, a love match, which I believe it was. Running away with Lyanna was already political suicide, so he could easily go through with it completely.

But we cannot rule out that she was nothing but a paramour. We know that some kings had commanded the KG to guard their bastards, and (at least) two of the three KGs at the ToJ were Rhaegar's friends. They would not have abandoned Rhaegar's illegitimate son just because Viserys became the rightful king. Their last order was (apparently) to protect Lyanna and her child, and that they did.

Does this mean that Rhaegar's son by Lyanna will be, if the truth is ever revealed, will be (necessarily) considered to be the rightful heir of the Iron Throne by a majority of the people of Westeros?

Most likely not. He was raised as a bastard, didn't know anything about his true heritage, and he was born from an highly unorthodox polygamous marriage, which might not be recognized/accepted by the Faith/the majority of the people.

Not to mention Jon Snow's vows. The vows are for life. They do not disappear just because a consensus is reached that NW does no longer fulfill a purpose.

[sj4iy]

That is hubris on your part. Just because you or I can not imagine another solution does not mean George Martin can't.

The case constructed here for R+L=J is shiny and solid looking. Nothing I say will tarnish it.

But, I could easily imagine this whole Titanic of a theory you all have constructed going down because it hits a submerged fact in TWOW or ADOS (more likely this one).

GRRM holds all the cards. Like in a bridge game, you don't tell the opposition what you have, you play the cards at the best time for you. He'll drop some key fact just when you least expect it and like a lighting tech adding a yellow jell, all the blues will become green and the reds orange - the whole look of what you know will be transformed in an "Ah-Ha!" moment.

I wouldn't say it's hubris...but I think it's better to say that the theories behind R+L≠J are pretty weak in comparison. The evidence behind those theories mainly rests upon gossip or what Ned told someone else. But if you try to go further with them, as in actually find facts, they tend to fall apart. Most of them fall apart just by simply asking "Why didn't Ned tell Jon?"

[UnmaskedLurker]

I wouldn't say it's hubris...but I think it's better to say that the theories behind R+L≠J are pretty weak in comparison. The evidence behind those theories mainly rests upon gossip or what Ned told someone else. But if you try to go further with them, as in actually find facts, they tend to fall apart. Most of them fall apart just by simply asking "Why didn't Ned tell Jon?"

Right--the point is the while GRRM is free to write any story he wants--there would be way too many things that would become nonsensical if R+L=/=J. Every alternative theory I have read really does not stand up to close scrutiny or logical examination. Sure, GRRM could go with one of those explanation if he wants, but that really would mean that GRRM was throwing all logic out the window, which he is not going to do.

[stateofdissipation]

Right--the point is the while GRRM is free to write any story he wants--there would be way too many things that would become nonsensical if R+L=/=J. Every alternative theory I have read really does not stand up to close scrutiny or logical examination. Sure, GRRM could go with one of those explanation if he wants, but that really would mean that GRRM was throwing all logic out the window, which he is not going to do.

It is not GRRM's logic being thrown out the window. It is R+L=J logic being thrown out the window. R+L=J comes from a combined 2 of 3573 pages. Ned had 15 chapters and lost his head. Catelyn had 25 before getting her throat slit.

Lyanna loved Rhaegar and had his child....

...Jon will be king...

R+L=J removes "..." it is a decent hypothesis. However, it is only one way to fill in the blanks. There are more.

The more time spent on the hypothesis, the more that must be written to justify the time spent. To justify the time and effort spent on the hypothesis we need:

Jon finding out about his parents chapter.

The sunken coast fallacy rears its ugly head. The hypothesis in fashion at the moment is an attempt to zombify the dead-horse trope of the hidden prince to justify the time spent on the hypothesis. Now we need;

Lyanna loved Rhaegar chapter.

Kingsguard guarding the king chapter.

somebody telling Jon or somebody telling somebody and them telling Jon or something in Lyanna's tomb chapter

Bloodraven talking to Jon via Raven chapter.

Jon saving the world chapter.

Jon taking the iron throne chapter.

Jon finding true love with his aunt chapter.

The Seven Kingdoms welcoming Jon and Dany as its rightful rulers chapter.

[corbon]

On Aerys and Rhaegar:

Rhaegar confirmed in ASoS to Jaime that he was plotting treason (i.e. trying 'to do something about his father' - ADwD sort of confirmed that this thing was supposed to be a covert Great Council at Harrenhal). ...

Sorry, there are so many things wrong with your whole post but its nearing 1am here and I just can;t begin to go over them all. SO I'll just stop at the first sentence.

Thats a huge overstatement without solid foundation. A Great council is legal, and therefore not treason. It has to be called with care because the King can see it as a dangerous move and if it fails to remove the king then the caller will be in deep shit, but it is precisely the legal and non treasnous mechanism to replace a dangerously (even to himself) inept King - without necessarily hurting the King or his crown, just removing teh power to a Regent.

That is hubris on your part. Just because you or I can not imagine another solution does not mean George Martin can't.

No it is not. The question was asked, "what are the counter-theories?" and the answer really is that there are none. That doesn't mean that there couldn't be any, or that everything might not change entirely with new data in the next book, just that there are no theories yet espoused that have the solidity to be called an alternative. They all, so far, have enormous and fatal flaws.

[Lord Varys]

A Great Council is either called by the King (Jaehaerys I), or by whoever is in charge in absence of the King (Great Council of 233). There is no chance whatsoever that a Great Council called by Rhaegar, Prince of Dragonstone, is legal, if the King on the Iron Throne (Aerys II Targaryen) says it's not.

Neither is there a precedent for a Great Council to decide whether a king is fit to rule. No Targaryen king of Westeros has ever been forced to abdicate, and thus there is no reason to believe that a Great Council has the authority to demand such a thing. As far as we know, Great Council have been called to settle the settle the succession.

You really seem to have no real understanding of the concept of the Westerosi monarchy, nor an idea what treason actually is. No one can force a grown-up, insane king to accept a Regency. He is the king. That's not going to change just because his is insane (or rather, because some people believe he is insane). There were three Regencies during the Targaryen reign - during the minority of Jaehaerys I, while Aegon II was incapacitated during the Dance, and during the minority of Aegon III. No Targaryen king was ever forced to accept a regency because he was insane. Only boy kings have to accept a regency (and Daeron I somehow avoided even that). Sure, if a king is incapacitated in the way Aegon II was, a Regency would become necessary, especially during wartime, but in such scenario the Regent was appointed by the Small Council (just as the various regents of kings Joffrey and Tommen were). A Great Council has no say in that matter.

[Jon_Samwell_Snow]

I thought they need a Regent due to if the King is too young to rule on his own yet.

I was thinking about Joffrey and Cersei's case.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I thought they need a Regent due to if the King is too young to rule on his own yet.

I was thinking about Joffrey and Cersei's case.

When a King is underaged (meaning younger than 16), a regent indeed is installed. IIRC, the Hand of the King reports to the King/Regent (who are supposed to work together).

[BearQueen87]

A Great Council is either called by the King (Jaehaerys I), or by whoever is in charge in absence of the King (Great Council of 233). There is no chance whatsoever that a Great Council called by Rhaegar, Prince of Dragonstone, is legal, if the King on the Iron Throne (Aerys II Targaryen) says it's not.

Ah, but does it matter if it's legal or not? I'm not sure if it is or isn't, but if Rhaegar has the support of Westeros high lords and they manage to evict Aerys then legality is in the eye of the winners. Rhaegar calls a council, everyone comes and votes, is someone suddenly going to step up and say, "wait! This isn't legal so everything we just decided has no merit because we didn't follow proper procedure." Rhaegar is already not following "proper procedure" if he's trying to quietly remove his father from the throne.

[Jon_Samwell_Snow]

When a King is underaged (meaning younger than 16), a regent indeed is installed. IIRC, the Hand of the King reports to the King/Regent (who are supposed to work together).

Okay, Joffrey was 13 when he became king.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Okay, Joffrey was 13 when he became king.

Yup, and thus received a Regent (Cersei, appointed by Joff). Tommen, because he's underaged, also has a regent.

Others who will have had a regent were Aegon III (11 upon gaining the throne), Daeron I (14, and Clash seems to suggest that it was the future Viserys II who was his regent) and Jaehaerys I (since he was 14 upon ascending the throne).

[MtnLion]

Rhaenys died at four I think so Rhaegar and Elia were married for at least 5 years (well, less the year when he rode to the sunset with Lyanna) so it's not nothing. Just saying that it could have been an unrequited love, especially since it seems that Rhaegar had plenty of success with women. If even Cersei prefered him to her golden Jaime at some point...

Actually Rhaenys was 2 maybe 3, as Tywin puts it. That suggests that she died on or very near her third nameday. It also tells us that Elia was not yet pregnant with Aegon, being fresh from bedrest, at the tourney.

[Lord Varys]

Rhaegar tried to call a Great Council. He didn't go through with it. The fact that the king was neither invited (and neither was his Small Council), nor gave his consent to this council, would have made it illegal in the eyes of the Crown. And, in turn, this would have been enough to declare all the lords traitors who assembled there. Not to speak about the fact that many lords there would most likely have not taken the side of the son over the absent father. That would have been a very dangerous precedent.

[MtnLion]

On the tourney:

We know that the tourney took several days, perhaps even weeks, and we know that you don't have to enter the lists on every day, which is why I'd not be surprised one bit if it turned out that Rhaegar only entered the lists after the Knight of the Laughing Tree incident.

I don't know where you are getting the "we know" stuff. We do know that the Tourney at Harrenhal, in the Year of the False Spring, lasted ten days. It is in the books.

[Arlan of Pennytree]

A Great Council is either called by the King (Jaehaerys I), or by whoever is in charge in absence of the King (Great Council of 233). There is no chance whatsoever that a Great Council called by Rhaegar, Prince of Dragonstone, is legal, if the King on the Iron Throne (Aerys II Targaryen) says it's not.

Neither is there a precedent for a Great Council to decide whether a king is fit to rule. No Targaryen king of Westeros has ever been forced to abdicate, and thus there is no reason to believe that a Great Council has the authority to demand such a thing. As far as we know, Great Council have been called to settle the settle the succession.

You really seem to have no real understanding of the concept of the Westerosi monarchy, nor an idea what treason actually is. No one can force a grown-up, insane king to accept a Regency. He is the king. That's not going to change just because his is insane (or rather, because some people believe he is insane). There were three Regencies during the Targaryen reign - during the minority of Jaehaerys I, while Aegon II was incapacitated during the Dance, and during the minority of Aegon III. No Targaryen king was ever forced to accept a regency because he was insane. Only boy kings have to accept a regency (and Daeron I somehow avoided even that). Sure, if a king is incapacitated in the way Aegon II was, a Regency would become necessary, especially during wartime, but in such scenario the Regent was appointed by the Small Council (just as the various regents of kings Joffrey and Tommen were). A Great Council has no say in that matter.

I can see the logic in your conclusion, particularly if said 'great council' is purposing to remove power from the sitting king. However, the tourney @ Harrenhal was was just that, a Tourney, insofar as we can be sure. The evidence of it bieng a 'meeting' between Rhaegar and other high lords to discuss removing Aerys comes primarily from Varys, whose only purpose seems to sow seeds of dissent and division. And we're also led to believe that Aerys was particularly paranoid, seeing enemies everywhere he looked. I think it's a huge stretch to designate the term 'great council' as a proxy for the tourney at Harrenhal.

[MtnLion]

Rhaegar tried to call a Great Council.

That is never suggested. What is suggested is that Varys whispered that Rhaegar was going to the tourney to garner support from the lords present, but why he would do so is never spelled out. It is no way reflects what Rhaegar was trying to do, if anything at all. The only thing we get is Rhaegar's comment to Jaime about roads not taken. So, I guess if he had planned it at Harrenhal, he abandoned it at Harrenhal.