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Theories: the plausibility index


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#1 Julia Martell

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 07:22 PM

So, I'm slowly and painfully coming to terms with the fact that we will be waiting YEARS for tWoW and going over the same material again, and again, and again, and again... Yay to turning Stannis into Chuck Norris and saying awful things about Dany! 

 

So to distract me from the staring into the abyss as it stares back into me, let's play a game.

 

Here's a list of some popular theories, rate them from 1 to 10 with 10 being so plausible you more or less consider it canon, and 1 being an explosion in a pot factory. 

 

Try to be amusing so I don't get too depressed.

 

R+L=J

The Great Northern Conspiracy

fAegon is a Blackfyre

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs

Tyrion is a secret Targ

Varys is a Blackfyre

Coldhands is the Night's King

Gravedigging Hound

Robet Strong is the Mountain

Jojen Paste

The Green Grace is the Harpy

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne

Missaindei is a Faceless Man

Oberyn poisoned Tywin

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom

Theon Durden

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree

Alleras = Sarella 

 

ETA:

 

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - how could I forget that one!


Edited by Julia Martell, 02 August 2014 - 07:50 PM.


#2 LordStoneheart

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 07:25 PM

R+L=J - 10 - fact and naysayers are just jealous 

 

The Great Northern Conspiracy - 7 - the specifics change but definitely more to it than just Manderlay

 

fAegon is a Blackfyre - 8 - seems fitting

 

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 1  - changing to zero because stupid

 

Tyrion is a secret Targ - 3 - changing to 1 because obviously, but I do like that "symmetry" aspect someone came up with once

 

Varys is a Blackfyre - 6 - eh just a feeling 

 

Coldhands is the Night's King - 6 - also just a feeling but the damn show....

 

Gravedigging Hound - 10 - obvious

 

Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10 - basically stated 

 

Jojen Paste - 10 - if he's not in the paste then he is definitely dead somehow. that passage is frickin eerie

 

The Green Grace is the Harpy - 8 - I'm still holding out hope for Daario being the harpy :P

 

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 1 - If I never have to see her stupid name again I'll be happy

 

Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 5 - strangely plausible...

 

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 4 - I really hope so 

 

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 4  :frown5:  If i had a magic wand, this would be my wish theory...

 

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 10 - ghost of high heart does not lie

 

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 7 - idk they claim it but then again, extraordinary claims, extraordinary evidence...

 

Theon Durden - 1 - hate it. just hate it. 

 

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 10 - the evidence against.. .what evidence against?

 

Alleras = Sarella - 10 - all but stated. 

 

 

ETA: High Sparrow = Howland is not a theory; it's fanfiction.


Edited by LordStoneheart, 03 August 2014 - 01:23 AM.


#3 Julia Martell

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 07:29 PM

Here are mine:

 

R+L=J: 9.5 I will be shocked and embarrassed if this one isn't true

 

The Great Northern Conspiracy: 7 I want it to be true

 

fAegon is a Blackfyre: 8 Fits the facts, guys.

 

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: 3 I would hate this, but it's technically plausible.

 

Tyrion is a secret Targ: 3

 

Varys is a Blackfyre: 7

 

Coldhands is the Night's King: 8 And he should get a POV

 

Gravedigging Hound: 10. Canon.

 

Robet Strong is the Mountain: 10. Who else.

 

Jojen Paste: 6 I find myself strangely attracted to this one.

 

The Green Grace is the Harpy: 7

 

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 2. Nah, I don't buy it.

 

Missaindei is a Faceless Man: 4 This would be awesome, but probably not.

 

Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 8 +1 point for pure awesomeness

 

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: 1 Word of God is good enough for me. 

 

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: 9 All but canon as far as I'm concerned.

 

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom: 7 I love this idea.

 

Theon Durden: 6

 

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 8

 

Alleras = Sarella: 10. Might as well just introduce herself.


Edited by Julia Martell, 02 August 2014 - 07:30 PM.


#4 TheMysteriousOne

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 07:29 PM

R+L=J- 10
The Great Northern Conspiracy- 7
fAegon is a Blackfyre - 9
Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 3
Tyrion is a secret Targ - 3
Varys is a Blackfyre - 5
Coldhands is the Night's King - 2
Gravedigging Hound - 9
Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10
Jojen Paste - 8
The Green Grace is the Harpy - 9
Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 1
Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 1
Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 6
Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 1 (or maybe 0, since this has been pretty much confirmed not to be true)
Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 10
The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 9
Theon Durden - 7
Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 9
Alleras = Sarella -10

Edited by TheMysteriousOne, 02 August 2014 - 07:33 PM.


#5 Hangover of the Morning

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 07:32 PM

I like this hardness scale for theories. Although, as pointed out in one of the comments, "Tormund's member" rather than "Valyrian Steel" should be the term for the most robust theories. 

 

R+L=J: 10 (Martin pretty much admitted when he said that D&D guessed it right. There is no Ashara on the show. :-))

 

The Great Northern Conspiracy: 7

fAegon is a Blackfyre: 8

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: 1

Tyrion is a secret Targ: 0

Varys is a Blackfyre: 0

Coldhands is the Night's King: no opinion 

Gravedigging Hound: 9

Robet Strong is the Mountain: 10

Jojen Paste: 4

The Green Grace is the Harpy: no opinion

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 2

Missaindei is a Faceless Man: 1

Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 8

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: 1

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: 9

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom: 0

Theon Durden: not familiar with that one

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 10

Alleras = Sarella: 10 


Edited by Hangover of the Morning, 02 August 2014 - 07:33 PM.


#6 BearQueen87

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 07:34 PM

R+L=J = 20000000000000000

 

The Great Northern Conspiracy = 7

 

fAegon is a Blackfyre = 9

 

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs = 3

 

Tyrion is a secret Targ = 6

 

Varys is a Blackfyre = 7 (or a Brightflame)

 

Coldhands is the Night's King = 4

 

Gravedigging Hound = 8

 

Robet Strong is the Mountain = 10

 

Jojen Paste = 2

 

The Green Grace is the Harpy = 9

 

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne = 5

 

Missaindei is a Faceless Man = 2

 

Oberyn poisoned Tywin = 2

 

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North = 6

 

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon = 9

 

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom = 3

 

Theon Durden = 2

 

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree = 10

 

Alleras = Sarella  = 10


Edited by BearQueen87, 02 August 2014 - 07:35 PM.


#7 Mladen

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 07:38 PM

R+L=J - 10
The Great Northern Conspiracy - 9
fAegon is a Blackfyre - 9
Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 3
Tyrion is a secret Targ - 3
Varys is a Blackfyre - 8
Coldhands is the Night's King - 6
Gravedigging Hound - 10
Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10
Jojen Paste - 2
The Green Grace is the Harpy - 9
Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 5
Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 0
Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 4
Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 0
Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 10
The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 3
Theon Durden - 0
Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 10
Alleras = Sarella - 10


#8 Dr. Pepper

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 07:39 PM

R+L=J: 10, duh.

 

The Great Northern Conspiracy: 7.5, and I'm only addressing the very basic thesis here in that the North is definitely not in it for Stannis. 

 

fAegon is a Blackfyre: 9.5, leaving a little room for a potential Brighfyre lineage, but the point is, he didn't come from the Rhaegun.

 

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: -5, They get a neg 5 instead of neg 10 simply because I find the argument so amusing. 

 

Tyrion is a secret Targ: see above

 

Varys is a Blackfyre: 4.8, At times I have leaned towards Varys being in it for the Blackfyres, but there are a lot of issues with the theory, namely, why the fuck would he stay true to Illyrio?

 

Coldhands is the Night's King: 5, I'll go middle of the road here because I'm not all that familiar with any theories about Coldhands.

 

Gravedigging Hound: 10, this seems a given

 

Robet Strong is the Mountain: 10, as does this one

 

Jojen Paste: anywhere from 1 to 10.  I've read that passage a couple dozen times.  It's eerie and dark and I'm not quite sure.

 

The Green Grace is the Harpy: 9, the graces are fairly major in the city and serve a variety of functions (healers, sex workers, etc).  Not too hard to consider that the top of that tier lies a woman who holds a lot of sway. 

 

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 1, But Ashara Dayne as Howland's wife and Jojen and Meera's mother would get a 6

 

Missaindei is a Faceless Man: wut?  is this a thing?  1

 

Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 5, another middle of the road.  I think there is good evidence Tywin was gonna be killed regardless.

 

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: 3

 

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: 8

 

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom: I can't remember what I think about this, so I'll use a 3 since I haven't used that yet.  I think.  

 

Theon Durden: 5, I like these 5s.  

 

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 10.  Is this still in question?

 

Alleras = Sarella: 10, also still in question?


Edited by Dr. Pepper, 02 August 2014 - 07:40 PM.


#9 Liver & onions

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 07:50 PM

R+J=L...10

The Great Northern Conspiracy...5

fAegon is a Blackfyre...8

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs...8 (Going to be a lot of angry fans around here when it comes out they are Targs. I can't wait.)

Tyrion is a secret Targ...1

Varys is a Blackfyre...8

Coldhands is the Night's King...7

Gravedigging Hound...10

Robert Strong is The Mountain...10

Jojeen Paste...8

The Green Grace is The Harpy...5

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne...7

Missaindei is a Faceless Man...3

Oberyn poisoned Tywin...10

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North...5

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon...10

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom...4

Theon Durden...0

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree...
.10

Alleras = Sarella...10

#10 Dolorous Gabe

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 07:59 PM


R+L=J - 10
The Great Northern Conspiracy - 6
fAegon is a Blackfyre - 7
Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 3
Tyrion is a secret Targ - 3
Varys is a Blackfyre - 3
Coldhands is the Night's King - 3
Gravedigging Hound - 9
Robert Strong is the Mountain - 9
Jojen Paste - 4
The Green Grace is the Harpy - 8
Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 2
Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 0
Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 8
Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 2
Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 8
The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 4
Theon Durden - 3
Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 8
Alleras = Sarella - 10

#11 Kevvy

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 08:08 PM

R+L=J - 10
The Great Northern Conspiracy - 10
fAegon is a Blackfyre - 1
Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 1
Tyrion is a secret Targ - 1
Varys is a Blackfyre - 3
Coldhands is the Night's King - 1
Gravedigging Hound - 10
Robert Strong is the Mountain - 10
Jojen Paste - 1
The Green Grace is the Harpy - 8
Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 4
Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 1
Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 6
Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 2
Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 10
The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 1
Theon Durden - 4
Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 10
Alleras = Sarella - 10

#12 AlwaysRelaxing24

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 08:18 PM

You won't be waiting a long time for these theories.  Even though this section is for the books only, history has shown us that the theories stop being discussed here once the show confirms them.



#13 Julia Martell

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 08:22 PM

You won't be waiting a long time for these theories.  Even though this section is for the books only, history has shown us that the theories stop being discussed here once the show confirms them.

 

Huh? What theories has the show confirmed?



#14 Lord Carson

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 08:39 PM

R+L=J-9

The Great Northern Conspiracy-5

fAegon is a Blackfyre-6

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs-1

Tyrion is a secret Targ-1

Varys is a Blackfyre-3

Coldhands is the Night's King-2

Gravedigging Hound-9

Robet Strong is the Mountain-9

Jojen Paste-3

The Green Grace is the Harpy-7

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne-5

Missaindei is a Faceless Man-0...

Oberyn poisoned Tywin-7

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North-3

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon-6

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom-5

Theon Durden-5

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree-7

Alleras = Sarella-10



#15 Ser Greg of House House

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 09:09 PM

R+L=J - 10
The Great Northern Conspiracy- 7 (in some way)
fAegon is a Blackfyre - 9
Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 1
Tyrion is a secret Targ - 5 
Varys is a Blackfyre - 6
Coldhands is the Night's King - 2
Gravedigging Hound - 10
Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10
Jojen Paste - 7
The Green Grace is the Harpy - 10
Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 5 (just because it would connect her to B. Selmy)
Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 1 (wtf)
Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 4 (I think it was Varys trying to blame Oberyn)
Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 2
Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 9
The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 8
Theon Durden - 6
Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 8
Alleras = Sarella - 10


#16 Crowford

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 09:45 PM

Gravedigging Hound - 10 (if not, then it's still deliberately written to suggest him, so what's the point?)

Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10 (that's pretty obviously stated)

R+L=J - 9 (1 off for the possibility that it's going to get subverted just because it's the most popular theory of them all)

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 9

Alleras = Sarella - 9

Jojen Paste - 8

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 8

The Great Northern Conspiracy - 7 (because it's a theory with many variables, and not all of them are going to turn out the way the theory suggests)

fAegon is a Blackfyre - 7

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 6

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 5

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - 5

Varys is a Blackfyre - 4

Coldhands is the Night's King - 4

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 4

Theon Durden - 4

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 3

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 2

Tyrion is a secret Targ - 2

The Green Grace is the Harpy - (left blank, I admit I never concerned myself with that theory much)

Missaindei is a Faceless Man - (also left blank, never heard that one)


Edited by Crowford, 02 August 2014 - 09:46 PM.


#17 aryagonnakill#2

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 09:54 PM

10- obviously aegon is fake, Jon  r+l=j, Gregor is Robert Strong and Sandor is the Grave Digger.  If u didn't realize those things in the books yourselves it does not mean you are slow and there is no reason you should disagree simply because you didn't see it, which for some reason some people do. But there is reason for u to not act like u didn't read the books.


Edited by aryagonnakill#2, 02 August 2014 - 09:56 PM.


#18 LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 09:58 PM

R+L=J - 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy - 6

fAegon is a Blackfyre - 8

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 3

Tyrion is a secret Targ - 4

Varys is a Blackfyre - 6

Coldhands is the Night's King - 5

Gravedigging Hound - 8

Robet Strong is the Mountain - 9

Jojen Paste - 6

The Green Grace is the Harpy - 8

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 4

Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 3

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 7

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 2

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 8

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 6

Theon Durden - 7

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 10

Alleras = Sarella - 10

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - 2



#19 kiasyd

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 10:16 PM

R+L=J : 10
The Great Northern Conspiracy : 8
fAegon is a Blackfyre : 6
Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs : 2
Tyrion is a secret Targ : 3
Varys is a Blackfyre : 6
Coldhands is the Night's King : 3
Gravedigging Hound : 9
Robet Strong is the Mountain : 9
Jojen Paste : 6   This theory gained some strength after S04 of the show... :(
The Green Grace is the Harpy : 5
Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 1
Missaindei is a Faceless Man: 2
Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 9
Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North : 5
Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon : 9
The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom : 6
Theon Durden: 7
Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 9
Alleras = Sarella : 10
 
ETA:
 
Howland Reed = the High Sparrow : 4


#20 Wavey Sauce

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 10:19 PM

Some of you think that Jaime and Cersei are more likely to be Targs opposed to the Grave digging hound...........