Theories: the plausibility index

[Wavey Sauce]

Huh? What theories has the show confirmed?

He may be talking about Jojen Paste and Bran the Dragon Warg? Possibly the Tyrion as a Targ (very few lines with some hints but can be looked at numerous ways)

[Booknerd2]

R+L=J - 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy - 8

fAegon is a Blackfyre - 7

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs -5

Tyrion is a secret Targ - 5

Varys is a Blackfyre - 6

Coldhands is the Night's King - 6

Gravedigging Hound - 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain - 9

Jojen Paste - -1

The Green Grace is the Harpy - 8

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 3

Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 4

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 9

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 2

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 8

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 5

Theon Durden - 3

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 9

Alleras = Sarella - 9

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - TBA - still re-reading and deciding on a number

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

R+L=J -Almost a 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy - Hmm an 8?

fAegon is a Blackfyre -I'm going to qualify this...a 9 that he is fake, but only a 6 or 7 that he is a Blackfyre specificly (he could be a Brightflame, or just a random fake).

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs -Since you don't have a 0...1.

Tyrion is a secret Targ - Ditto, 1.

Varys is a Blackfyre -God I don't know...5? 6?

Coldhands is the Night's King - 3

Gravedigging Hound - 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10

Jojen Paste - 1!!!!!!!

The Green Grace is the Harpy - 9

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 9 1/2 closing in on 10.

Missaindei is a Faceless Man -1

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 4 (could go up or down)

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 1...it would undermine everything.

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 10

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 2

Theon Durden - ?????

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 9?

Alleras = Sarella - 10

ETA:

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - how could I forget that one! - We have to go into negative numbers for this one.

[JNR]

R+L=J 3

The Great Northern Conspiracy 3

fAegon is a Blackfyre 2

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs 1

Tyrion is a secret Targ 1

Varys is a Blackfyre 3

Gravedigging Hound 9

Robet Strong is the Mountain 9

Jojen Paste 1

The Green Grace is the Harpy 8

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 4

Missaindei is a Faceless Man 1

Oberyn poisoned Tywin 5

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 2

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 9

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 1

Theon Durden 7

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 3

Alleras = Sarella 9

[Ser Eric]

R+L=J = 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy = 0

fAegon is a Blackfyre = 1

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs = 0

Tyrion is a secret Targ = 0

Varys is a Blackfyre = 1

Coldhands is the Night's King = 0

Gravedigging Hound = 7

Robet Strong is the Mountain = 9

Jojen Paste = 0

The Green Grace is the Harpy = N/A

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne = 0

Missaindei is a Faceless Man = -10

Oberyn poisoned Tywin = 5

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North = 0

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon = 7

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom = 0

Theon Durden = What?

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree = 7

Alleras = Sarella = 10

[Hrafntýr]

R+L=J =9

The Great Northern Conspiracy =9

fAegon is a Blackfyre =5

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs =3

Tyrion is a secret Targ =1

Varys is a Blackfyre =5

Coldhands is the Night's King =1

Gravedigging Hound =10

Robert Strong is the Mountain =10

Jojen Paste =1

The Green Grace is the Harpy =9

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne =5

Missandei is a Faceless Man =2

Oberyn poisoned Tywin =7

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North =1

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon =10

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom =7

Theon Durden =0

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree =9

Alleras = Sarella =10

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - how could I forget that one! =0

Mance=Rhaegar =!!!!!!$%^@)#$%&@#($(@^!!!!!!!!

[HexMachina]

R+L=J = 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy = No opinion (too many different components for me to come say how much I agree with it as a whole)

fAegon is a Blackfyre = 5 for the Blackfyre angle. 7 or 8 for him not being Rhaegar and Elia's son.

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs = 1, and that is only because of the parallels between Cersei and Aerys.

Tyrion is a secret Targ = 1

Varys is a Blackfyre = No opinion.

Coldhands is the Night's King = 1. I think Coldhands is just some random shmuck.

Gravedigging Hound = 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain = 10

Jojen Paste = 0. :bs:

The Green Grace is the Harpy = 6.

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne = 1

Missaindei is a Faceless Man = 0 :bs:

Oberyn poisoned Tywin = 0

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North = 0

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon = 7

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom = 0

Theon Durden = 1

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree = 7

Alleras = Sarella = 10

[HexMachina]

He may be talking about Jojen Paste and Bran the Dragon Warg?

The show has not confirmed either of these theories.

[Lord Reaver]

R+L=J: 9, Fairly convinced, just too many hints to ignore

The Great Northern Conspiracy: 7, if one discounts the more out-there versions of the theory

fAegon is a Blackfyre: 5, giving it a 50/50 of being true

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: 1. No. Just....no.

Tyrion is a secret Targ: More of this silly stuff ? Still 1

Varys is a Blackfyre: 4, depending on whether Faegon is, I suppose, but less likely imo

Coldhands is the Night's King: 3

Gravedigging Hound: 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain: 10 Doing the Clegane brothers together, they're both pretty much spelled out in the text

Jojen Paste: 3. Again, wtf? No. Though this does make me want to go back and reread the relevant passages.

The Green Grace is the Harpy: 6, Giving this slightly above 50% chances, as it would feel about right

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 2, and I'm being generous

Missaindei is a Faceless Man: 1, enough with the faceless men, already

Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 3, as for the Jojen paste, I can't recall anything indicating it

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: 1, stated otherwise in the text

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: 8, highly plausible, but a bit lacking in textual evidence

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom: 1, What? I thought I said enough with the Faceless Men?

Theon Durden: 2, Interesting, but no.

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 6, seems to be her nature, but I haven't actually read the prequels, so I'm going on little info here.

Alleras = Sarella: 10. Yes. Just like Koveras was Sarevok.

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow: Blatant fabrication without any indices in the text, going to have to go with 1 again.

[Fat Mac]

R+L=J- 9

The Great Northern Conspiracy- 6

fAegon is a Blackfyre- 8

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs- 2

Tyrion is a secret Targ- 0

Varys is a Blackfyre- 1

Coldhands is the Night's King- 3

Gravedigging Hound- 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain- 10

Jojen Paste- 2

The Green Grace is the Harpy- 7.5

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne- 1

Missaindei is a Faceless Man- 0

Oberyn poisoned Tywin- 6

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North- 1

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon- 10

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom- 8

Theon Durden- 4

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree- 9

Alleras = Sarella- 10

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow- 3

[PlainJeyne]

R+L=J 10. I consider it to be cannon.

The Great Northern Conspiracy 6. I think some of it is valid but it's unclear how it will play out.

fAegon is a Blackfyre 8. Fits with the facts but could play out differently.

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs 3. There are some clues that support this, but also it seems unlikely. What exactly would this do to advance the plot?

Tyrion is a secret Targ 3. Even less evidence than the twins, but could feasibly advance the plot. Still probably not the case.

Varys is a Blackfyre 5. Not a ton of evidence, but it could work. I really hope he is! I have had this theory since I first read the books, pre-ADWD.

Coldhands is the Night's King 5. Could go either way and I don't have any feelings on this.

Gravedigging Hound 10. Is this really a "theory"?

Robert Strong is the Mountain 9.7 I'm sure he is mostly the mountain but I'm leaving room for him to have someone else's head, or no head at all.

Jojen Paste 5. Could go either way but I really hope not because eww.

The Green Grace is the Harpy 8. Seems very likely.

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 4. It seems like a lot of people really hate this theory and maybe it isn't super likely, but I like it better than H+A=J and M, which seems convoluted to me.

Missaindei is a Faceless Man 2. WAT.

Oberyn poisoned Tywin 2. Maybe it happened but I don't think we'll ever know for sure outside of Word of God maybe.

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 2. No. The hips thing was a continuity error.

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 10.

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 4? I hadn't really considered it?

Theon Durden 3 and I really hope not.

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 9.

Alleras = Sarella 10. Who else?

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow -5. Hell no!

[DanLa]

R+L=J- 9.999999999

The Great Northern Conspiracy 5

fAegon is a Blackfyre 6

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs 3

Tyrion is a secret Targ o.ooooo1

Varys is a Blackfyre 6

Coldhands is the Night's King 5

Gravedigging Hound 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain 11

Jojen Paste 7

The Green Grace is the Harpy 6

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 5

Missaindei is a Faceless Man 3

Oberyn poisoned Tywin 2

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 1

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 1

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 2

Theon Durden 1

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 8

Alleras = Sarella 9

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow 1

[Ser Greg of House House]

He may be talking about Jojen Paste and Bran the Dragon Warg? Possibly the Tyrion as a Targ (very few lines with some hints but can be looked at numerous ways)

I don't follow the show. Jojen Paste was confirmed? What? That's why people are giving it high ratings I suppose. Also Bran warging a dragon? wtf...

[HexMachina]

I don't follow the show. Jojen Paste was confirmed? What? That's why people are giving it high ratings I suppose. Also Bran warging a dragon? wtf...

Neither was confirmed by the show

[Ingelheim]

R+L=J 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy 7

fAegon is a Blackfyre 7

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs 4

Tyrion is a secret Targ 4

Varys is a Blackfyre 5

Coldhands is the Night's King 4

Gravedigging Hound 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain 10

Jojen Paste 6

The Green Grace is the Harpy 7

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 4

Missaindei is a Faceless Man 2

Oberyn poisoned Tywin 6

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 1

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 10

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 8

Theon Durden 5

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 9

Alleras = Sarella 10

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow 4

[George48]

R+L=J: smells of fantasy trope, exactly the kind of trope Martin subverts or trolls his readers with. I give it a 3.5 (It's a 1.8 if we add the theories that start with this premise... you know... those about King Jon Jesus Stargayren) Also to those who "preach" it: you are very oraganised and eloquent Good job

The Great Northern Conspiracy It's WAY to: implausible and unorganised and complicated... but at least it's realistic. 4

fAegon is a Blackfyre: Ok... This is is just on the borderline since Aegon could be anyone. 5

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: U.Wot.M8? 1.2!

Tyrion is a secret Targ: same as above.

Varys is a Blackfyre: We have WAY too much time on our hands. 1!

Coldhands is the Night's King: Ok... this one actualy makes a bit of sense and might but just might be true. 5.5

Gravedigging Hound: Guys... there are coincidences you know. Still... could but just could be true. 5.7

Robet Strong is the Mountain: Ok this one I kind of believe it myself a bit. Here a 7 for you.

Jojen Paste: ... 2!

The Green Grace is the Harpy: This one is borderline. 4.8

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: George... George... do you see what happens when you bring back dead characters? You give people hope... and crack... 1.5

Missaindei is a Faceless Man: Dude what are you smoking... can I have some? 1!

Oberyn poisoned Tywin: This one seems plausible if you don't dwell for too long. Still it gets a 4.5

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: This the product of a typing error. It's as fake as you can get so it's got 8 for lucidity and 1 for truthfulness. It's something done in "good faith".

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: Hm... knowing Euron... I think he assassines his brother but I'm not sure it was a faceless man. 7.6

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom: Almost nothing is known of the Doon. This is the score: ?/? (We should wait for "A world of Ice and Fire")

Theon Durden: Well I had to look it up. We do know that Theon is almost insane so I give this a 5.5

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: How could she know how to fight? Where did she get the armour from? You do know that knights trained for years? It's improbable: 4

Alleras = Sarella:... Borderline since it could be a coincidence. 5

[Ser Greg of House House]

R+L=J: smells of fantasy trope, exactly the kind of trope Martin subverts or trolls his readers with. I give it a 3.5 (It's a 1.8 if we add the theories that start with this premise... you know... those about King Jon Jesus Stargayren) Also to those who "preach" it: you are very oraganised and eloquent Good job

The Great Northern Conspiracy It's WAY to: implausible and unorganised and complicated... but at least it's realistic. 4

fAegon is a Blackfyre: Ok... This is is just on the borderline since Aegon could be anyone. 5

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: U.Wot.M8? 1.2!

Tyrion is a secret Targ: same as above.

Varys is a Blackfyre: We have WAY too much time on our hands. 1!

Coldhands is the Night's King: Ok... this one actualy makes a bit of sense and might but just might be true. 5.5

Gravedigging Hound: Guys... there are coincidences you know. Still... could but just could be true. 5.7

Robet Strong is the Mountain: Ok this one I kind of believe it myself a bit. Here a 7 for you.

Jojen Paste: ... 2!

The Green Grace is the Harpy: This one is borderline. 4.8

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: George... George... do you see what happens when you bring back dead characters? You give people hope... and crack... 1.5

Missaindei is a Faceless Man: Dude what are you smoking... can I have some? 1!

Oberyn poisoned Tywin: This one seems plausible if you don't dwell for too long. Still it gets a 4.5

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: This the product of a typing error. It's as fake as you can get so it's got 8 for lucidity and 1 for truthfulness. It's something done in "good faith".

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: Hm... knowing Euron... I think he assassines his brother but I'm not sure it was a faceless man. 7.6

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom: Almost nothing is known of the Doon. This is the score: ?/? (We should wait for "A world of Ice and Fire")

Theon Durden: Well I had to look it up. We do know that Theon is almost insane so I give this a 5.5

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: How could she know how to fight? Where did she get the armour from? You do know that knights trained for years? It's improbable: 4

Alleras = Sarella:... Borderline since it could be a coincidence. 5

Oh boy, you're going to be disappointed. Haha

[Julia Martell]

Oh boy, you're going to be disappointed. Haha

I have to agree!

Although, thank you, George48 for being different. I like things that are different.

[Mladen]

ETA:

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - how could I forget that one! - We have to go into negative numbers for this one.

Jesus... Almost 400 posts on that thread and that "Mance=Rhaegar" brain trust with some other believers didn't actually remember to check the age... It is hilarious how bad it is...

Not only do we need to go into negative, we need to expand from 10 to 100...

I like things that are different.

You can start a thread on crackpot theories' plausibility index... Take some good and some bad and let we see what we believe in :)

[Ser Greg of House House]

You can start a thread on crackpot theories' plausibility index... Take some good and some bad and let we see what we believe in :)

This! Is Tyrion = Targ (bastard) considered crackpot? Because I'm one of the few who like that one :)