lyannaisalive Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 This might have been discussed before so I apologize. Why was Tywin so sure that the Vale would not join the War on Robbs side. The only reason I can think of is that LF told him he had control over Lysa. But even then it would be a huge risk and very stupid to trust they wouldn't join Robb. Ned was loved in the vale he grew up there and they fought with him in two wars. He was murdered (I doubt anyone believed Ned was a traitor in the Vale) by Joffrey so its not guaranteed they would have listened to Lysa. If the Vale had joined with their 40,000 troops Tywin would have lost the war IMHO. He had Robb in the West, Bolton I am not sure where he is at this point because im basing this on if Tywin still held Harrenhal (if the Vale fought with Robb I don't know that Roose would have betrayed Robb because Robb would be winning) and then facing a large untouched Vale army to his south (southeast, east) and Edmure was in Riverrun with a smaller host. Jaime was captured, two of Tywins host were virtually destroyed and he would be surrounded by enemies while Robb hasnt lost a single battle and would have gained troops. It seems like just assuming the Vale wouldn't enter was so anti-Tywin that I MUST be missing something. Did Tywin have some sort of insurance that the Vale wouldn't join? I doubt he would simply trust LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OberynBlackfyre Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 I honestly think he was basing this on Lysa's pure paranoia and fear......and also maybe because he had a couple people on the Lannister payroll within the Vale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boarsbane Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 He knew Lysa was a coward and the Vale lords were too honorable to go against her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SerHaHa Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Good topic - I think the Vale issue is probably the most important factor, regardless on how you come down about it - in the entire Wot5K. Was Tywin just fortunate that the Vale didn't jump in on the North's side, even if it wasn't all the houses, just some of the larger ones, or was it more than that? Did Tywin actually calculate accurately based on Lysa, LF, and other intelligences known to him that he wouldn't end up with a vulnerable Eastern flank? Like most things in life, it was probably written to be somewhat ambiguous, and likely a combination of the above factors. I hope that the Vale's forces will play a large part in the next couple books. They have a huge advantage in having fresh forces that are well equipped, well led - I really like the whole LF and Sansa threads in the last couple of books, and look forward to seeing what happens with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
devilish Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 I think that deep down Tywin knew that Littlefinger had Lysa in his pockets. He only had to keep Littlefinger happy and the Vale won't life a finger against his kingdom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lyannaisalive Posted August 4, 2014 Author Share Posted August 4, 2014 Good topic - I think the Vale issue is probably the most important factor, regardless on how you come down about it - in the entire Wot5K. Was Tywin just fortunate that the Vale didn't jump in on the North's side, even if it wasn't all the houses, just some of the larger ones, or was it more than that? Did Tywin actually calculate accurately based on Lysa, LF, and other intelligences known to him that he wouldn't end up with a vulnerable Eastern flank? Like most things in life, it was probably written to be somewhat ambiguous, and likely a combination of the above factors. I hope that the Vale's forces will play a large part in the next couple books. They have a huge advantage in having fresh forces that are well equipped, well led - I really like the whole LF and Sansa threads in the last couple of books, and look forward to seeing what happens with this. I believe (slightly crackpot) that the wall will fall after Jon is named either KITN or Lord of Winterfell. With depleted troops he will have to retreat south and send for help. So my theory is that at this point Sansa will convince the lords of the Vale to answer the call and then that Sansa and Jons armies will meet at none other than.....the Twins. haha I would love to see this happen just so the Freys will shit themselves :cheers: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Pintur Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Tywin was worried, That is why he was trying to end the war so fast. He moved against the tullys fast and was eager to fight Robb so he could focus on the Vale if needed. After they didn't join at the end of GOT Tywin most likely figured Lysa was scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thelittledragonthatcould Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 The Vale had been split during Roberts Rebellion and that was with a strong leader in Jon Arryn, chances are there would be Houses loyal to the crown at this event as well. At the start of the war Joffrey being a bastard is only a rumor(still is to the general public) so some would be just as loyal to Robert Baratheons children as they are to Ned's. Littlefinger is pretty confident that he will be able to manipulate the strongest families into aligning themselves with him, I'm sure Tywin had similar connections to some of the Vale families. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramsay Gimp Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Tywin was concerned about the Vale, even as late as ASOS His early moves in the war (knocking out the Tullys, rushing to confront what he thought was Robb's army) were designed to take out his enemies quickly before they could unite against the Lannisters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee-Sensei Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Tywin probably expected the vale to join the war at some point. Ned and robert were raised there, the arryns are related to the starks and tullys and stannis was conspiring with jon before his death. He was trying to crush all of their opponents before they could unite against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minstral Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 As I recall, Tywin was worried about the Vale joining a side in the war. When he discusses their position to Tyrion and Kevan at the end of the first book he mentions the various enemies surrounding them and he includes the Vale along with all the other opposing forces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowford Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Of course Ned was beloved in the Vale. But then again, so was Robert. And Jon Arryn had spent his life being Robert's closest advisor, and until Lysa (to any onlooker, pretty randomly), accused the Lannisters of killing Arryn during Tyrion's trial (in which he was proven innocent, for another crime, true, but it cast doubts on all of Lysa's accusations), there was no indication of foul play. There is no inherent reason why a majority of the Vale Lords would side with Ned's son over Robert's son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee-Sensei Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Thats often ignored, but i think its worth mentioning that jon arryn. Named his only son after robert. Not ned. There isnt much reason for them to take up arms against roberts kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lyannaisalive Posted August 4, 2014 Author Share Posted August 4, 2014 Of course Ned was beloved in the Vale. But then again, so was Robert. And Jon Arryn had spent his life being Robert's closest advisor, and until Lysa (to any onlooker, pretty randomly), accused the Lannisters of killing Arryn during Tyrion's trial (in which he was proven innocent, for another crime, true, but it cast doubts on all of Lysa's accusations), there was no indication of foul play. There is no inherent reason why a majority of the Vale Lords would side with Ned's son over Robert's son. Thats often ignored, but i think its worth mentioning that jon arryn. Amed his only son after robert. Not ned. There isnt much reason for them to take up arms against roberts kids. Most of the Vale Lords wanted to answer Robbs call for help against Tywin but didn't because Lysa said no. They suspect it was the Lannisters who killed Jon. These are the same Vale lords who fought with Ned 15 years earlier and did love and respect him and would fight for his honor and his son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee-Sensei Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Some of the vale lords that were related to the starks wanted to go to war with rhe lannisters. Others were equally disposed to the baratheons. The vale lords fought for robert in two wars and he probably made more friends in the vale than ned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thelittledragonthatcould Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Most of the Vale Lords wanted to answer Robbs call for help against Tywin but didn't because Lysa said no. They suspect it was the Lannisters who killed Jon. These are the same Vale lords who fought with Ned 15 years earlier and did love and respect him and would fight for his honor and his son. Being vocal does not make it the most. Flayed Man: finally (i know you are busy and all) as of your personally thinking the lords of vale they are friendly to starks and tullys as if they are brothers and there are lords who are "itching" to get pieace of lannisters and want to help robb. Also tell me how friendly are they with robb right now (how the lords of vale feel about robb). GeoRR: The lords of the Vale are numerous. As with any large group, their views vary. GeoRR: "Brothers" overstates the case, but certainly Ned made friends during his years in the Eyrie... so did Robert, however, so some of the Vale houses would be just as well disposed toward Baratheon as toward Stark. GeoRR: Do some of the them want to join Robb? Certainly. Most notably Bronze Yohn Royce. Others, however, want no part of the war, and some may even favor the other contenders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galaxian Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Not only was Ned raised in the Eyrie, but for the past 15 years, Blackfish had been in command of the Bloody Gate. So yeah, it's most likely that if allowed to the Vale would have sided with Robb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee-Sensei Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Again, robert was also raised in the vale, id better at making friends and was their king. Its telling that jon arryns first child was named after robert. Not ned. And jon arryns was friends with stannis working closely with him for 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeyBanana Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 The enemy wasn't Baratheon, it was Lannister, though. Stannis and Renly were also opposing Joffrey's rule. The Vale had without a doubt plenty of lords preferring to stay neutral or more loyal to the Baratheons, but i don't think there were many real Lannister supporters, just those that Littlefinger bribed to be faithful to the crown. But apart from the individual loyalties within the Vale, they did what Lysa commanded, first and foremost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boarsbane Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 The enemy wasn't Baratheon, it was Lannister, though. Stannis and Renly were also opposing Joffrey's rule. The Vale had without a doubt plenty of lords preferring to stay neutral or more loyal to the Baratheons, but i don't think there were many real Lannister supporters, just those that Littlefinger bribed to be faithful to the crown. But apart from the individual loyalties within the Vale, they did what Lysa commanded, first and foremost. Joffrey was a Baratheon in name and widely believed to be Robert's trueborn heir, Stannis' letter looks like a self serving lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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