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Tywin's Plan?


ira_gaines

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Hi there,



I still don't quite understand what Tywin's overall plan was when he invaded the Riverlands. He didn't know Robert was going to die, or presumably that he just happened to go out hunting at the same time that news of what was happening was coming out. How was he going to explain conquering most of the Riverlands?


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The idea was that Ned Stark would go and try to arrest Gregor with his men. In that event, Tywin would have captured Eddard, and traded him for Tyrion, and all would be well.



That plan did not go through when Jaime attacked Ned on the streets of KL, injuring him. It were Ned's injuries that caused him to remain in KL while letting others go and find Gregor in the Riverlands, to bring him to justice.


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The idea was that Ned Stark would go and try to arrest Gregor with his men. In that event, Tywin would have captured Eddard, and traded him for Tyrion, and all would be well.

That plan did not go through when Jaime attacked Ned on the streets of KL, injuring him. It were Ned's injuries that caused him to remain in KL while letting others go and find Gregor in the Riverlands, to bring him to justice.

I know that's what Tywin tells us, but isn't there a bit of a plot hole here. Jamie leaves the city and reports to Tywin after attacking Ned. Shouldn't he have told his father that Ned was hurt. I mean the guys horse fell on top of him. Most people just don't walk something like that off.

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I like how Tywin thought he could simply kidnap Ned, trade him, and then that would be the end of it. Yeah right, the moment Tywin took Ned Robb would call his banners. And i'm not sure Robert would take this lightly and would even do something.


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I know that's what Tywin tells us, but isn't there a bit of a plot hole here. Jamie leaves the city and reports to Tywin after attacking Ned. Shouldn't he have told his father that Ned was hurt. I mean the guys horse fell on top of him. Most people just don't walk something like that off.

Jaime has to reach Tywin. That takes time, and before any of that can be done, Ned has already send guys out of his own, right?

Surely, Jaime would have told Tywin what was going on the second he could. But by then, it might have been too late already. Everything was set in motion, and there seems to have been no going back

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Hi there,

I still don't quite understand what Tywin's overall plan was when he invaded the Riverlands. He didn't know Robert was going to die, or presumably that he just happened to go out hunting at the same time that news of what was happening was coming out. How was he going to explain conquering most of the Riverlands?

I don't believe the first attacks were actually done by the mountain. Essentially, there was no Tywin plan- the Brotherhood is incorrect or lying. There are plenty of very suspicious things about those accounts (found in Eddard XI).

For example, The Mountain's attack on the alehouse is later said to be after the Hand's Tourney. So Joss the Brewer is lying, at least on the timing.

And why is Ser Raymun Darry along? He was not ordered to go.

The peasants report different sizes of the force and different accounts on how the attacks took place.

Reread Eddard XI and you'll see what I mean.

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Tywin is convinced he can do literally anything. He can't respect any limits to his power, a trait he passed on to his children, all three of them. So, yes, he was convinced that he can pull that insane plan off.



That it looked more and more like the Starks/Tullys/Renly/Stannis planned a coup against the Lannisters in KL made it only more urgent.


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It was only through the bad luck of Jaime jumping the gun and injuring Ned that the plan failed (and even that had its own bad luck as Ned was meant to go unharmed)


Then again it was also some incredibly good luck that Loras was turned down by Ned for the hunting party, if he was killed or injured in the ambush then that sort of removes any chance of a Lannister-Tyrell alliance


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It was only through the bad luck of Jaime jumping the gun and injuring Ned that the plan failed (and even that had its own bad luck as Ned was meant to go unharmed)

Then again it was also some incredibly good luck that Loras was turned down by Ned for the hunting party, if he was killed or injured in the ambush then that sort of removes any chance of a Lannister-Tyrell alliance

Don't forget that attacking the King's Hand riding under the King's own banner would be ...appreciated by Robert in a very special way. Unless he was dead.

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It was only through the bad luck of Jaime jumping the gun and injuring Ned that the plan failed (and even that had its own bad luck as Ned was meant to go unharmed)

Then again it was also some incredibly good luck that Loras was turned down by Ned for the hunting party, if he was killed or injured in the ambush then that sort of removes any chance of a Lannister-Tyrell alliance

Only that doesn't quite make sense (and neither does the Tywin plan as a whole).

The Tywin plan relies on Robert to be hunting, but it also relies on Eddard to lead the execution party.

Except, Eddard gets injured before Robert goes hunting.

There was no Tywin plan. The Mountain didn't strike first.

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Only that doesn't quite make sense (and neither does the Tywin plan as a whole).

The Tywin plan relies on Robert to be hunting, but it also relies on Eddard to lead the execution party.

Except, Eddard gets injured before Robert goes hunting.

It doesn't necessarily rely on Robert going hunting - Bob shirks his duties at every opportunity its hardly beyond the realms of possibility that Tywin's plan hinged on Ned being the one to hold court on that day, seeing a Jon did it enough to have a sword made just for the occasion. And of course it relies on Ned leading the execution party, he's the one who keeps talking about executing people personally. And even if Ned doesn't take the bait it has the second objective of keeping the riverlords spread, which it does.

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It doesn't necessarily rely on Robert going hunting - Bob shirks his duties at every opportunity its hardly beyond the realms of possibility that Tywin's plan hinged on Ned being the one to hold court on that day, seeing a Jon did it enough to have a sword made just for the occasion. And of course it relies on Ned leading the execution party, he's the one who keeps talking about executing people personally. And even if Ned doesn't take the bait it has the second objective of keeping the riverlords spread, which it does.

It doesn't spread thin any riverlords. And that wasn't a stated objective. Piper, Vance and Darry hardly had any men with them.

According the BWB (who would have no idea about Tywin's thinking):

"He planned for Lord Eddard to come west himself to deal with Gregor Clegane. If he had he would have been killed, or taken prisoner and traded for the Imp, who was your lady mother’s captive at the time. Only the Kingslayer never knew Lord Tywin’s plan, and when he heard about his brother’s capture he attacked your father in the streets of King’s Landing.”

The BWB story makes no sense.

As I said, capturing Eddard relies on Robert not being there, but Eddard was injured before Robert went hunting.

But it's more than that.

1) Joss the Brewer is the only person that identifies the burners as the Mountain, but his story contradicts the other peasants.

2) Joss the Brewer's story matches the inn incident after the Hand's Tourney, which happened much earlier.

3) The Mountain is at the Golden Tooth at war's front. How did he get around the front? There is a secret path that Robb uses that Greywind finds, but the Lannisters don't know about it. That's why they are surprised by Robb.

4) The burners attack Vance, Piper and Darry lands. But Darry lands are east towards the King's Road. Why go that far? Why not burn something closer?

5) The burners were not interested in money, but the Mountain's later pillaging is very money focused.

6) No one can agree on the size of the attacking force.

7) The plan was reckless and almost created a Tyrell-Lannister war.

8) The burners didn't carry banners when Lannister forces are not shy about carrying banners

9) Does Tywin really care that much about the Imp?

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Skinchanging Sweetrobin, Why do you think the plan would have depended on Robert being away from KL? Robert hated confrontation (with examples as fleeing every birth of Cersei, fleeing when Ned and the Lannisters had an argument). There is no way that Robert would have gone to confront Gregor himself (as Gregor was Tywins favorite lapdog, and Robert couldn't affort to piss off Tywin, with all the millions that he owed him, and more). So even if Robert had been present at KL, Ned would have stated to Robert that he was going to bring Gregor to justice, as Robert couldn't deny that something had to be done, and thus Ned would have ridden out, which would solve two problems for Robert: 1) Ned would no longer be in the same city as Cersei, which might get her a bit more silent on matters, and 2) Gregor would be dealt with by Ned, so Roberts hands would remain clean.


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Skinchanging Sweetrobin, Why do you think the plan would have depended on Robert being away from KL? Robert hated confrontation (with examples as fleeing every birth of Cersei, fleeing when Ned and the Lannisters had an argument). There is no way that Robert would have gone to confront Gregor himself (as Gregor was Tywins favorite lapdog, and Robert couldn't affort to piss off Tywin, with all the millions that he owed him, and more). So even if Robert had been present at KL, Ned would have stated to Robert that he was going to bring Gregor to justice, as Robert couldn't deny that something had to be done, and thus Ned would have ridden out, which would solve two problems for Robert: 1) Ned would no longer be in the same city as Cersei, which might get her a bit more silent on matters, and 2) Gregor would be dealt with by Ned, so Roberts hands would remain clean.

A drawing out of Eddard relies on knowing that Eddard swings the sword when he passes the sentence.

So, we first have to ask ourselves, does Tywin know that about Eddard?

Next, it relies on a certain dynamic in KL. Yes, Robert skips small council meetings, but does he skip the court? We have no evidence of that.

But let's assume he does. Pycelle immediately says that this is a subject that the King should deal with. It's only that Robert is not in KL, that Eddard deals with it without consulting Robert.

So, if Robert were in KL, its certain that Robert would be summoned and would be passing the sentence. Robert uses the King's Justice so he would send Payne.

"Send for Ilyn Payne."

"No," Ned said. "Jory, take the girls back to their rooms and bring me Ice." The words tasted of bile in his throat, but he forced them out. "If it must be done, I will do it.

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Skinchanging Sweetrobin, Why do you think the plan would have depended on Robert being away from KL? Robert hated confrontation (with examples as fleeing every birth of Cersei, fleeing when Ned and the Lannisters had an argument). There is no way that Robert would have gone to confront Gregor himself (as Gregor was Tywins favorite lapdog, and Robert couldn't affort to piss off Tywin, with all the millions that he owed him, and more). So even if Robert had been present at KL, Ned would have stated to Robert that he was going to bring Gregor to justice, as Robert couldn't deny that something had to be done, and thus Ned would have ridden out, which would solve two problems for Robert: 1) Ned would no longer be in the same city as Cersei, which might get her a bit more silent on matters, and 2) Gregor would be dealt with by Ned, so Roberts hands would remain clean.

I think that plan depend on Robert being away because if Robert would agree with Ned than Tywin wouldn't be able blame Ned on escalating of conflict(arrest of Tyrion, death sentence for Gregor). Gregor's execution would have blessing from King and if Lannisters' feared that Ned, Jon Arryn, Stannis, Renly and Tyrells planed same action againts Cersei and replace her and her children then attacking King's banner would be final nail in their coffin. If Robert wouldn't agree with Ned then he would cancel Ned's orders(I agree that Pycell would send for King todecide this matter).

I actually wonder how Tywin would explain his war with Riverlands(did he attack after or before Robert's death?). Tywin had to know that Ned had order to release Tyrion so his burning of half Riverlands couldn't be ignore.

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People always use the Tywin plan to lure ned out as a sign of his genius

Ned is a veteran of two wars and a large number of battles. He cannot be compared to beric as a leader of men. What happens of ned defeats gregor? Or fights him and gets away? What if he is joined by a load of riverlands? Not a sure thing at all

As for tywins plan he thought he could do anything, beating westeros was gonna e a walk for the lion

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