R+L=J v.98

[Lord Varys]

1. Why should Rhaegar change his view on the promised prince after he learned that Elia could no longer bear any children? There is no evidence for that. Rhaegar should already have known about Elia's troubles in Dany's vision, which showed Rhaegar, Elia, and Aegon after the latter's birth.

Aegon's birth first confirmed that Aegon was the promised prince, not the other way around. Why should he have changed it so soon, especially since Elia's health issues would have to be expected. There is also no hint that all the three heads of the dragon would have to be born from the save (or that Rhaegar believed that), so no reason to change his belief.

2. More importantly, if Lyanna made any impression on Rhaegar prophecy-wise, then one should expect this to occur when he first met her at Harrenhal, not later. The thought that Rhaegar and Lyanna had some sort of pen pal relationship, and then decided to run off with each other, does not ring right to me. There is simply no evidence supporting this. Something must have caused Rhaegar's action, but the birth of Aegon, Elia becoming barren, and Rhaegar's belief that there has to be another would already suffice. That much is confirmed, we don't need another layer to explain his actions.

3. If Aegon was born on Dragonstone, it would be 'the place of smoke and salt'. There would be no need for anything else. If Rhaegar lived on Dragonstone, it would be very likely that Aegon was born there.

4. The assumption that Rhaegar could or would reinterpret the promised prince as a sort of 'living Song of Ice and Fire' can also not be backed by anything. But I'd argue against it, since Rhaegar apparently read a version of the prophecy - or multiple versions of it - and never made that connection to our knowledge. That could be a hint that the prophecy Rhaegar read did actually specify what the Song of Ice and Fire was, and if that's the case, there is no reason to assume that Rhaegar would believe it was a person (especially if it made it clear that it was a battle or a war).

Finally we should also keep in mind that we don't really know what the Targaryens (Aemon, Rhaegar) thought the promised prince was supposed to do. We connect the promised prince with Azor Ahai, the Last Hero, and the fight against the Others, but it is very unlikely that Rhaegar and Aemon made that connection. Aemon eventually learns what's going on beyond the Wall, but he didn't know any of that prior to the Rebellion. Thus we should not really deduce that Rhaegar believed that the Others existed, or that the promised prince would have to fight against them.

[UnmaskedLurker]

1. Why should Rhaegar change his view on the promised prince after he learned that Elia could no longer bear any children? There is no evidence for that. Rhaegar should already have known about Elia's troubles in Dany's vision, which showed Rhaegar, Elia, and Aegon after the latter's birth.

Aegon's birth first confirmed that Aegon was the promised prince, not the other way around. Why should he have changed it so soon, especially since Elia's health issues would have to be expected. There is also no hint that all the three heads of the dragon would have to be born from the save (or that Rhaegar believed that), so no reason to change his belief.

I don't think Rhaegar likely knew at that time that Elia could not have more children--or if he did, he might not yet have settled on Lyanna as the mother of the third child. I think the realization likely would only occur to Rhaegar over time that Lyanna was ice to his fire because the central meaning of ASOIF--i.e., a description of the great battle--would be initially all he would think it would mean.

2. More importantly, if Lyanna made any impression on Rhaegar prophecy-wise, then one should expect this to occur when he first met her at Harrenhal, not later. The thought that Rhaegar and Lyanna had some sort of pen pal relationship, and then decided to run off with each other, does not ring right to me. There is simply no evidence supporting this. Something must have caused Rhaegar's action, but the birth of Aegon, Elia becoming barren, and Rhaegar's belief that there has to be another would already suffice. That much is confirmed, we don't need another layer to explain his actions.

It would not have made an impression at HH because Rhaegar would have had absolutely no reason at that time to even consider that Lyanna would be mother to TPTWP or even a head of the dragon. I think at that point, Rhaegar still thought that he himself was TPTWP. And while we don't need a "pen pal" relationship to explain Rhaegar's actions, we need it to explain Lyanna's actions--and to explain the apparent marriage. Rhaegar did not just come up to Lyanna at the last minute and say--come away with me and become my polygamous wife and give birth to my prophesied child. They had to have some communication before they went off together (unless you believe it really was a kidnapping--which seems virtually impossible to me given other things we know, such as Ned's view of Rhaegar). So some sore of communication between the birth of Aegon and their disappearance together is necessary for the story to make any sense.

3. If Aegon was born on Dragonstone, it would be 'the place of smoke and salt'. There would be no need for anything else. If Rhaegar lived on Dragonstone, it would be very likely that Aegon was born there.

I could be mistaken but I think Mel makes up this connection of Dragonstone being smoke/salt for Stannis. I don't think we have any reason to believe that this conclusion was actually reasonable or that Rhaegar also would have come to this strained reasoning. Maybe I am unaware of some evidence that Rhaegar would have had reason to think of Dragonstone as smoke/salt. Aemon makes a point of mentioning how Rhaegar was born amidst smoke/salt, but for Aegon only mentions the comet as evidence for Rhaegar that Aegon would be TPTWP. You would think he might have mentioned the Dragonstone connection if it was part of what convinced Rhaegar that Aegon was TPTWP.

4. The assumption that Rhaegar could or would reinterpret the promised prince as a sort of 'living Song of Ice and Fire' can also not be backed by anything. But I'd argue against it, since Rhaegar apparently read a version of the prophecy - or multiple versions of it - and never made that connection to our knowledge. That could be a hint that the prophecy Rhaegar read did actually specify what the Song of Ice and Fire was, and if that's the case, there is no reason to assume that Rhaegar would believe it was a person (especially if it made it clear that it was a battle or a war).

I sort of agree with what you are saying here. The principal meaning of ASOIAF is a song telling the epic tale of the battle in which TPTWP wins the Battle for the Dawn. So for most of Rhaegar's life, he would have had no reason to think of any additional meaning. The point is that GRRM created a character (Jon) who appears to be the merger of ice and fire--and named his entire series ASOIAF. The ONLY character in the entire series to date to speak the name of the title (IIRC) is Rhaegar in the HotU vision. So GRRM lets us know that Rhaegar connects the song with the prince. And GRRM lets us know that Rhaegar could be seen as fire (fire and blood, dragons, etc.) and Lyanna as ice (name of sword; bastards named Snow, etc.). It is so in your face to any reader who cares to think about it. Rhaegar knows all of this information as well. If it jumps out at the reader, it makes perfect sense that eventually it would jump out at Rhaegar. And it would explain why he concluded that the third head had to be with Lyanna and not another woman who would not create as much of a political problem.

Finally we should also keep in mind that we don't really know what the Targaryens (Aemon, Rhaegar) thought the promised prince was supposed to do. We connect the promised prince with Azor Ahai, the Last Hero, and the fight against the Others, but it is very unlikely that Rhaegar and Aemon made that connection. Aemon eventually learns what's going on beyond the Wall, but he didn't know any of that prior to the Rebellion. Thus we should not really deduce that Rhaegar believed that the Others existed, or that the promised prince would have to fight against them.

I basically agree with this point. I am not sure whether you thought I would not, but I don't think it has any impact on my analysis either way. Rhaegar might not have had any knowledge of what would represent ice in the battle. But Jon would still be the merger of fire and ice--no matter what the literal ice in the battle happened to be.

[BearQueen87]

I could be mistaken but I think Mel makes up this connection of Dragonstone being smoke/salt for Stannis. I don't think we have any reason to believe that this conclusion was actually reasonable or that Rhaegar also would have come to this strained reasoning. Maybe I am unaware of some evidence that Rhaegar would have had reason to think of Dragonstone as smoke/salt. Aemon makes a point of mentioning how Rhaegar was born amidst smoke/salt, but for Aegon only mentions the comet as evidence for Rhaegar that Aegon would be TPTWP. You would think he might have mentioned the Dragonstone connection if it was part of what convinced Rhaegar that Aegon was TPTWP.

This feels necessary : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_t0aCtqSno

[UnmaskedLurker]

This feels necessary : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_t0aCtqSno

That gave me my smile for the day. Mmmmm ham.

[J. Stargaryen]

I couldn't agree with you more. If Rhaegar truly was as intelligent as the characters in the series have described him, he definitely would have had some plan devised to mitigate the political ramifications. What these plans were and whether they were smart or not, I don't think any of us can say right now. They could have been brilliant and were somehow thwarted by his foes or they could have been well-intentioned but politically naive and destined to fail.

Basically this. I don't think it makes much sense to base your argument on Rhaegar being smart, and then throw that out the window if/when it becomes inconvenient for said argument.

But even if he did run off impulsively with Lyanna, he had to be intelligent and learned enough in the history of his own family and realm to know that by taking a second wife and starting a second branch of the family, he was creating a politically volatile situation for his children. It would've required delicate and skillful handling to pull off successfully if he wanted his children to grow up in a stable familial and political environment. His three heads can't defeat the forces of darkness together if they're too busy fighting each other.

Right. Because there would be a good decade-and-a-half at least before his children were ready to fulfill their destinies.

The Targaryen/Valyarian description of humans as a dragons seems to be a multi-facited one. For example, all Targaryen's may be described as being 'blood of the dragon,' but only certain extraordinary Targaryen's seem to be singled out and described as 'true dragons' in their own right. Since princes didn't exist in the Valyarian Freehold, was the Valyrian concept of the 'dragonlord' the nearest equivalent of the word in their language and culture? How would that then effect their understanding of the prophecy? Would legitimate birth matter to them? Viserys was legitimate and recognized as a prince, but neither Dany (nor Jorah for that matter) considered him to be 'the last dragon." Daemon Blackfyre was a legitimized bastard, but he's an extraordinary Targaryen, a true example of a 'dragon.' I'd really love to learn more about all of this.

When you look at the ones who were called dragons, they were all pretty great; e.g., Aegon the Dragon, Aemon the Dragonknight, etc.

That is a really interesting idea! Perhaps a red comet will appear after Jon is reborn from his near-death stabbing.

Yes, or even maybe a blue one for the Ice Dragon. Who knows.

[mambru]

There is no evidence whatsoever that Varys accompanied Aerys to Harrenhal. Could be, but he could also have stayed behind in KL, as he did when Robert traveled to Winterfell.

Aerys hadn't come out of his palace for a decade because his fear of plots made him a paranoid recluse. The only reason he decided to go to Harrenhal was because Varys told him Rhaegar was planning to plot with the lords against him and he wanted to thwart it. I can't imagine that after fearfully hiding in his palace that long, paranoid Aerys would venture out WITHOUT his spymaster at his side to help him spy on the plotters at Harrenhal and warn him if they get bold enough to plot and act against him while he's at Harrenhal.

[mambru]

I suppose it depends on how you take Selmy's words: able, capable, dutiful, single-minded, determined. None of those are bad qualities to have.

I never said they were. All I did say was that we have no evidence Rhaegar was ever an effective strategic planner. And Barristan's enumeration of his sterling qualities doesn't change that. IIRC, neither Barristan nor any other character in the books can point to a single concrete plan that Rhaegar successfully conceived and carried out that benefitted anyone. (And I don't think engendering Jon as TPTWP counts as a successful plan of Rhaegar's, since the war, the death of his two elder children and the fall of the Targaryen dynasty was almost surely NOT part of Rhaegar's plans.)

So you have evidence that he wasn't meeting with any High Lords in secret at Harrenhal or that he wasn't revising his plans once he learned Aerys was coming? There was an entire year in between HH and taking Lyanna. How do you know what he was doing for that year?

No, I don't have proof that he wasn't meeting with any High Lords in secret at Harrenhal or revising his plans after Aerys decided to come. I also don't have proof that he wasn't moonlighting as a torch singer on alternate Wednesdays at the hottest gay tavern in King's Landing under the drag queen name of "Trampolina," because it's impossible to prove a negative. ;) But I'm pretty sure there's not a single word anywhere in the books about Rhaegar having whispered a word or lifted a finger to try to depose Aerys after Harrenhal.

And I think that I can indisputably prove that Aerys was still king when Rhaegar ran away with Lyanna and disappeared for months, abdicating any role in the government. IMO, this inescapably means that given the choice between working in King's Landing at removing Aerys and running away with Lyanna, Rhaegar decided that Lyanna was the higher priority, and he simply blew off dealing with Mad Aerys for months. Hell, didn't Rhaegar even admit it to Jaime the last time he saw him? Didn't he say something like, "Yeah, I planned to deal with the king long ago, should probably have done it sooner - but no use crying over spilled milk, amirite?" Except I'm sure he put it more poetically.

[BearQueen87]

I never said they were. All I did say was that we have no evidence Rhaegar was ever an effective strategic planner. And Barristan's enumeration of his sterling qualities doesn't change that. IIRC, neither Barristan nor any other character in the books can point to a single concrete plan that Rhaegar successfully conceived and carried out that benefitted anyone. (And I don't think engendering Jon as TPTWP counts as a successful plan of Rhaegar's, since the war, the death of his two elder children and the fall of the Targaryen dynasty was almost surely NOT part of Rhaegar's plans.)

So in order to be an effective planner the plan has to come to fruition and benefit someone? Harrenhal was a plan. It got detracted because of Varys/Aerys. That doesn't mean Rhaegar's plan wasn't sound to begin with. And I think it's worth remembering Selmy's audience when he is talking about Rhaegar: Dany. She wants to hear about the heroic knight of a brother that has been built up in her head. She didn't ask for stories about Rhaegar that involved his skills as a leader. The other characters remember the "big" events of the Rhaegar story: HH, Lyanna, and the Trident.

However, you want to talk about planning: he did lead the entire Targaryen army at the Trident.

No, I don't have proof that he wasn't meeting with any High Lords in secret at Harrenhal or revising his plans after Aerys decided to come. I also don't have proof that he wasn't moonlighting as a torch singer on alternate Wednesdays at the hottest gay tavern in King's Landing under the drag queen name of "Trampolina," because it's impossible to prove a negative. ;) But I'm pretty sure there's not a single word anywhere in the books about Rhaegar having whispered a word or lifted a finger to try to depose Aerys after Harrenhal.

I would comment but I'm too busy laughing.

The year after HH is a big blank. We don't know a whole lot of anything. Does that mean that there wasn't anything? Nope. Does that mean that there was something? Nope. *shrug* Maybe Rhaegar did give up. Or maybe he spent the year trying to figure out a better plan than a meeting disguised as a tourney.

And I think that I can indisputably prove that Aerys was still king when Rhaegar ran away with Lyanna and disappeared for months, abdicating any role in the government.

Rhaegar never had any role in government to begin with. It's up to Aerys to choose his counsel, and he never chose Rhaegar. Rhaegar had the honorary title of Prince of Dragonstone, but that's it.

[Lord Varys]

UL,

I'm not sure it makes sense to assume that Rhaegar would still consider himself to be the promised prince as late as Harrenhal. Aegon had already been conceived by then, and he had already seen the comet (or heard about it). In fact, if Rhaegar still had considered himself to be the promised prince at that point, I don't see any reason why he would change his mind about that. What we know is that a sign in the sky, i.e. the comet, caused Rhaegar to believe that his unborn son was the promised prince. But he would never have made that connection, if he had not already had serious doubts about being the promised prince himself, or had already dismissed that idea for some (unknown) reason.

Only during a phase of uncertainty would Rhaegar (or any person driven by a prophecy - look how Melisandre interprets all in Stannis' favor) even consider to reinterpret the prophecy - and the signs connected to it - in favor of another person. But that was clearly the case before Harrenhal, and thus also at/during Harrenhal.

If the time line would not make it all but impossible, I would back your case that the meeting with Lyanna (eventually) led Rhaegar to reconsider the prophecy (since he must have made a really great impact on him), but he had not even completely settled on Aegon at this point, since the child was not yet born (and it was thus still unconfirmed that Aegon was indeed a boy). What would have to happen for Rhaegar to change his mind yet again, first in favor of Aegon (upon his birth), and then, suddenly, months after his first meeting with Lyanna, in favor of her still unborn children by her? It makes little to no sense to pin all that on Elia's disability to conceive more children, especially since that should have been obvious very shortly after the actual birth. Say, Rhaegar was told that the child was a boy, and learned one or two days later that Elia could no longer conceive (or would most certainly not survive another pregnancy). In such scenario, the conversation from the vision of the House of the Undying could not really fit in. Rhaegar would have been told about Elia's health issues long before she had the strength again to receive visitors, and speak to Rhaegar about the fate of their son. And I really don't think that there passed much time between Aegon's birth, and Rhaegar's journey back into the Riverlands.

As to the role of Lyanna in all of that:

The Ice/Fire thing is nice, but Rhaegar was working/searching/fathering with the prophecy of the woods witch in mind. Either he was the promised prince (for a long time the only child of Aerys II and Rhaella), or his son or grandson would be. It does not seem likely that he ever considered that Viserys might be the One, or children by Viserys, or another, as of yet unborn child of Aerys/Rhaella. In that sense I really don't think that the background of the mother of his children did not really matter. They would have been just tools to bring forth the promised prince - but, of course, he chose Lyanna precisely because he fell in love with her.

[BearQueen87]

UL,

I'm not sure it makes sense to assume that Rhaegar would still consider himself to be the promised prince as late as Harrenhal. Aegon had already been conceived by then, and he had already seen the comet (or heard about it). In fact, if Rhaegar still had considered himself to be the promised prince at that point, I don't see any reason why he would change his mind about that. What we know is that a sign in the sky, i.e. the comet, caused Rhaegar to believe that his unborn son was the promised prince. But he would never have made that connection, if he had not already had serious doubts about being the promised prince himself, or had already dismissed that idea for some (unknown) reason.

We don't know when Aegon was conceived/when the comet was spotted.

[Queen Ayras Lord Commander]

This feels necessary : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_t0aCtqSno

Is there a way to hug you through a computer?

[Lord Varys]

We do know that it must have been before Harrenhal, because Elia would not have been at Harrenhal if she had been given birth to Aegon shortly before that, since she would have not been able to travel. If some months passed between Aegon's birth and Harrenhal, and even more months between Harrenhal and the beginning of the Rebellion (which actually happened), then Aegon would have to be much older at the time of his death - which he isn't.

It really works only in this way. I've thought about it.

[J. Stargaryen]

We do know that it must have been before Harrenhal, because Elia would not have been at Harrenhal if she had been given birth to Aegon shortly before that, since she would have not been able to travel. If some months passed between Aegon's birth and Harrenhal, and even more months between Harrenhal and the beginning of the Rebellion (which actually happened), then Aegon would have to be much older at the time of his death - which he isn't.

It really works only in this way. I've thought about it.

I think what BQ87 was getting at was: Why can't Elia become pregnant shortly after HH? I think we all agree that Aegon's conception was around the time of the HH tournament. But there seems to be a question of whether it was just before or just after.

[BearQueen87]

Is there a way to hug you through a computer?

I will accept this comment in lieu of it

I think what BQ87 was getting at was: Why can't Elia become pregnant shortly after HH? I think we all agree that Aegon's conception was around the time of the HH tournament. But there seems to be a question of whether it was just before or just after.

Bingo

[Lord Varys]

That would cause other problems. Wait and see.

[BearQueen87]

That would cause other problems. Wait and see.

Am I waiting for proof, a post, or a book?

[J. Stargaryen]

That would cause other problems. Wait and see.

Are you privy to some inside information or something?

[Queen Ayras Lord Commander]

I think what BQ87 was getting at was: Why can't Elia become pregnant shortly after HH? I think we all agree that Aegon's conception was around the time of the HH tournament. But there seems to be a question of whether it was just before or just after.

Maybe Lyanna was on Rhaegar's highlight reel when Aegon was conceived?

[UVA]

Maybe Lyanna was on Rhaegar's highlight reel when Aegon was conceived?

Lol. Perhaps not in the same words, but this has been brought up before.

[Queen Ayras Lord Commander]

Lol. Perhaps not in the same words, but this has been brought up before.

I can be cruder than oil, what can I say?