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Jaime L Council Member

Jaime L

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So pretty surprisingly the only rookie QB starting week one will be Derek Carr. Surprising because he was the 4th QB taken this year and because teams have gotten strangely gun shy again about rookie passers. I mean Bridgewater and Bortles were excellent in the preseason. But there still exists this old school notion that you can ruin a young QB by starting him week one.



Thought the 6 rookie passers who started in week one from the 2011 and 2012 draft classes (Newton, Dalton, Luck, RGIII, Tannehill and Wilson) would've allayed those fears for good.



Moreover, what's the point of waiting a few weeks before starting the future of the franchise? Jacksonville, Tennessee and Minnesota all waited a few weeks before starting Gabbert, Locker and Ponder respectively. Obviously that extreme care with their rookie passers led to bountiful success. Wait, no, the opposite. And hey, maybe those guys weren't ready to start in week one as rookies. That's fair but only if we ignore that Gabbert was starting by week 2, Locker by week 4 and Ponder by week 6. It's the illusion of exercising extreme care with your prized asset when really all you're doing is delaying him getting meaningful reps.



Honestly I don't think it matters a ton either way. If a guy can play, he'll show it. If he can't, we'll see that too once the guy gets out there. I just think these teams are deluding themselves.


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Jace, Extat Council Member

Jace, Extat

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I think there's something to be said for keeping a 'not-ready' QB out of real games so that he doesn't learn bad habits if the supporting cast isn't ready and he doesn't have his mechanics down.



For example, I would say that Manziel has no business starting (being drafted where he was aside) right now (if ever) because he's going to get himself fucked up. The coaches should take as long as they deem necessary to get him into habits that don't hurt his team and don't hurt himself.



As for the other 2 teams you mentioned, I don't think that Matt Cassell and Chad Henne were the reason the Vikings and Jags sucked so hard last year. Neither are good, but they aren't Mark Sanchez's or Geno Smiths.


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Jaime L Council Member

Jaime L

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I think there's something to be said for keeping a 'not-ready' QB out of real games so that he doesn't learn bad habits if the supporting cast isn't ready and he doesn't have his mechanics down.

For example, I would say that Manziel has no business starting (being drafted where he was aside) right now (if ever) because he's going to get himself fucked up. The coaches should take as long as they deem necessary to get him into habits that don't hurt his team and don't hurt himself.

As for the other 2 teams you mentioned, I don't think that Matt Cassell and Chad Henne were the reason the Vikings and Jags sucked so hard last year. Neither are good, but they aren't Mark Sanchez's or Geno Smiths.

I agree Manziel doesn't look ready. If the Browns started him, they'd clearly be forcing it. But Bridgewater looked good out there and Bortles looked shockingly polished. Just feels like delaying the inevitable. I think we'll see both by early October.

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Manhole Eunuchsbane Council Member

Manhole Eunuchsbane

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I suppose it depends who you're going up against week one. Like throwing Manziel in against Pit would be nuts. On top of that, what do the Raiders have to lose? They may as well roll the dice early. I suppose you could say the same about Jax, and the matchup isn't as daunting on the defensive side.


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Howdyphillip Council Member

Howdyphillip

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I will see your statue and raise you Spiderman with a bulging one...

http://comicsalliance.com/spider-man-statue-south-korea-gigantic-boner-eunsuk-yoo/ (picture is not nude)

This was actually on display in Korea for a year before someone said something about it.

Edited to get back on topic...

JL,

The reason for not starting a rookie week 1 is pretty understandable to me. Out of the rookies you named that did start week 1, almost all of them knew the system coming in to training camp, or the system was adjusted for them. Tannehill even had his coach from college calling the same plays. If you want to see an extreme example of why you don't start a rookie, look at David Carr. I think that he would have been a top 5 QB in the league if they let him sit for a year or so instead of throwing him to the wolves. I've never seen anyone take a beating like he did and it was all because he wasn't ready to play. (Well that, and the worst offensive line in the game.)

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Jaime L Council Member

Jaime L

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I suppose it depends who you're going up against week one. Like throwing Manziel in against Pit would be nuts. On top of that, what do the Raiders have to lose? They may as well roll the dice early. I suppose you could say the same about Jax, and the matchup isn't as daunting on the defensive side.

That's probably a big part of how it fell. Raiders have the hardest schedule in the league. Seriously: 6 games against the 3 playoff teams from the AFC West plus the entire NFC West but at least it starts easier.

Vikings start with the Rams so Zimmer may just be trying to keep Teddy alive.

JL,

The reason for not starting a rookie week 1 is pretty understandable to me. Out of the rookies you named that did start week 1, almost all of them knew the system coming in to training camp, or the system was adjusted for them. Tannehill even had his coach from college calling the same plays. If you want to see an extreme example of why you don't start a rookie, look at David Carr. I think that he would have been a top 5 QB in the league if they let him sit for a year or so instead of throwing him to the wolves. I've never seen anyone take a beating like he did and it was all because he wasn't ready to play. (Well that, and the worst offensive line in the game.)

Derek Carr was a unique situation getting drafted onto an expansion team. Even the worst teams in the NFL still have far better offensive lines than the complete turnstile Carr had to deal with as a rookie. But yeah we'll never know what he could've been had be been drafted onto a full-fledged NFL team.

And teams should tailor their offenses to their rookie passer just as a matter of course. If you take a QB in the first round you're counting on him being the franchise - he should be given every advantage possible to help him succeed. Note, I think the Browns did that as much as anyone - Manziel just didn't hold up his end.

The thing is, highly drafted QBs don't ever get to sit for an entire year anymore. The only exception was Kaepernick and that was because that 49ers team he got drafted onto went 13-3 under Alex Smith. But every other rookie passer starts as a rookie - it's just a question of when. Take any high drafted QB of the last 5 years and he's almost definitely starting by week 6. To me there's just no material advantage gained by sitting those few weeks. And I think you only truly get better by playing.

The other thing is, selfishly, I'd much rather watch Bridgewater or Bortles on Red Zone channel. :P

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Rockroi Council Member

Rockroi

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And so, once again, I will sadly predict every division standing and playoffs etc.



I also call the 2014 season: 16 games until we decide who gets home field for the AFC Championship.



(*)Playoff Team



AFC EAST


*Patriots: Upgrades on D; duct-tape for the injuries on O; traded their #1 lineman and… hey look- Stevan Ridley still exists! Starting in 2003 Pats have won the AFC East every season Brady has been healthy. Wake me in the second week of January.


Dolphins: Not talented enough to make the playoffs, not atrocious enough to get a good draft pick. Ladies and Gentlemen YOUR 2003-2014 MIAMI DOLPHINS!!!! Hey, at least they got rid of that pig Jeff Ireland. That fucking shitbag.


Bills: They are the Clearance Rack of the NFL. Mario Williams, Brandon Spikes, Mike Williams. No shit- they all sucked when they played for other teams. Now they can all suck together.


Jets: Speaking of sucking. Everyone relax, Gino Smith is starting; you’re all good. He only threw 21 INTS last year against 12 TDs. His QB rating was 66.5. Did you know they tried to get Firemn Ed to make a comeback? I’m not making that shit up- the Jets front office tried to get this genetic nitwit to come back to games. Best part? He turned them down! What was I saying again? Oh yeah, the Jets SUCK!



AFC NORTH


*Bengals: Lots of people predicting a tumble here, but I don’t see it. Talented roster, healthier than last season. Assuming everyone stays healthy, Mexal will be very happy until their inevitable 1st round playoff loss.


Steelers: This is the year I confidently … oh fuck it- I honestly no longer think there is a difference between the Steeelrs and the Ravens. Overrated QB who avoids criticism because he has a ring? Check. Overrated running game because its not 1997 anymore? Check? Dumb head coach? Check. Aging defenses? Check. It’s the same team. At lest Mike Tomlin just cheats and does not complain about it.


Ravens: The passing game will improve but that’s it. And I can’t wait to see how Harbaugh blames their 8 losses this season on the refs. But he’s a fucking Zen Master at that shit. He’ll find a way. He always does.


Browns: Look on the bright side: at least you will have years of “Whatever-the-fuck-happened –to-that-Johnny-Manziel-shit-head-who-imploded-like-Ryan-Leaf” stories to look forward to.



AFC SOUTH:


*Colts: Maybe they’re not that good; maybe their division is that bad (it is, actually). But Wayne will be back, Luck is a stud and … their D is awful but it’s the NFL- defense only matters in the playoffs now.


*Houston: I preface this by saying … for the love of God, the Texans have Ryan Fitzpatrick as their QB. I know that. But… Jesus does Clowney look ready and Watt is Watt. They can punish teams on D and squeak out 9 wins on O.


Jaguars: I tried to convince myself that the Jags could take second-place. Then I saw their roster and my eyes burned in their sockets and I forgot my name for 3 hours. I can still smell toast. Did you know that the Jags won 4 games last season? Every one of those teams fired their head coach. That cannot possibly be a coincidence. Also, in 2012 they drafted a punter ahead of Russell Wilson.


Titans: Bud Adams died. I honestly have no idea what this team is. Or why it matters.



AFC West


*The Denver Mannings: Their division to lose. They will likely have home-field throughout the playoffs unless something catastrophic happens.


*Chargers: The trendy pick is to take the Chargers to win the West. Basically what you are saying is that you think Manning will get injured this season if you pick the Chargers to win the West. I think Rivers’ resurgence is astounding and will take them back to Cinci in week 1 of the playoffs.


KC: Finished the season 2-6, suffered one of the most crushing post-season defeats ever, has Andy Reid as a coach. Did you know they only have NINE home wins in the last three seasons? This team is a rotted Pumpkin.


Raiders: Matt Shaub is your QB. He set a NFL record last season for most consecutive games with a pick-six. That’s $6.75M a year and $8M guaranteed. He’s the highest paid player on the team. I don’t know if that means the Raiders are fucking terrible at figuring out who to pay or if that means the rest of the team is so shit-tacular that they are paying them in wooden nickels. All I know is that that’s a chilling vision of things to come.



NFC East:


*Eagles: No, somebody try to tell me there is a way another team can win this division? Anyone? Anyone at all? I honestly think this is the season the Eagles’ players “get it” and Chip Kelly’s offense goes house on the Conference. They could end up with a first round bye.


Washington: RGIII will have a rebound year and the running game won’t have that moron Shannahan fucking it over. The defense will be improved with a healthy Orakpo. That and the Giants and the Cowboys suck balls. But I don’t trust the head coach. And the team is perpetually paranoid.


Giants: Look at it this way: Victor Cruz can only suck for so long. On another note, did you know that Eli Manning threw 27 INTs last season? He only threw 18 TDs. That was 5 more INTs than the next closest guys (Carson Palmer [still alive] and Joe Flacco); 6 more than Gino Smith. Wow.


Cowboys: I think they are trying to make Jimmy Johnson’s legacy look better now. Jerry Jones is now a caricature of a terrible NFL owner. And Jason Garrett is the worst coach in the NFC, and that’s not easy. Dez Braynt may shiv a guy.



NFC NORTH


*Bears: Whatever a good team needs to succeed, this team has it, including an improved O-Line, a QB who can pass, multiple targets, a resurgent D and a ton of money used more wisely than resigning Peppers and Hester. This is the break-out team of the season.


*Packers: Lost Raji for the season, their D has been all over the place since the Superbowl 3 seasons ago, and am I the only one who thinks Rodgers may have a problems staying healthy? Also… Mike MacCarthy is a head coach. In the NFL!!!! Ugh… wildcard team if I ever saw one.


Vikings: If Cassel is required to only win 1-2 games this year that means AP was a house. They have weapons on O; their D is taking on water, though. Still think they will be pretty terrible.


Lions: Their head coach is Jim Caldwell. Holy. Shit. I already have to start the waiting game until he’s fired mid-season in 2015. I could set my watch by it.



NFC South:


*Saints: There is an internet meme out there of Drew Breese that says “I don’t always pass for 5,000 yards but… no wait, yes I do.” I thought it was funny. Gonna be heart breaking to watch them loose to the Bears in the first round of the playoffs, though.


*Panthers: Your season starts with an injured Cam Newton and Ron Riviera is… kinda overrated. The D is still exceptional, but they did lose both starting WRs from last season. I see a tumble here.


Falcons: That stupid Hard Knocks show has me convinced that the Falcons will be good. I just don’t see them doing anything against the Panthers or Saints. Or anyone else good.


Bucs: Martin will be healthy again. For 6 weeks. And they got rid of Shiano. But much of the team remains and they are still in Tama Bay.



NFC WEST:


*Seattle: They are the best team in the NFL. Not only that but they defeated the 2nd (49’ers) and third (Broncos) best teams in the NFL last year. And that Broncos game was much much much worse than you remember. The rules change may impact them a little, but more likely they will adjust fine. Also, sorry to say, the 49’ers troubles have finally caught up to them.


49’ers: I am predicting they don’t make the playoffs (which was after I said they would earlier in August). They are injured, they are coming off a terrible playoff loss, they tried to trade their head coach, they have another player arrested for a Domestic Violence assault (Ginger Hammer Alert). How much can this team take?


Cardinals: Default. D is improved, running game is settled, but their QB is a fucking train wreck. Good news: they are not the….


Rams: An argument could be made that going from Bradford to Hill is not THAT big of a decline, but I think that even at full health, the Rams are so catastrophically bad on Offense that they would have finished last either way.



Seattle defeats the Bears and the Pats get home filed to beat the Broncos, setting up me having to watch Richard Sherman pick off Brady twice on route to a Seattle SB win.


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Tyrion Lannister Council Member

Tyrion Lannister

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Raiders: Matt Shaub is your QB.

Not anymore. I have mixed feelings about that, too. On one hand, I always thought David Carr got a raw deal and was thrown into an impossible situation, and before the draft I was hoping his little brother would succeed. But he's a Raider, and I would feel dirty rooting for a Raider.

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Mexal Council Member

Mexal

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Doesn't that make the Raiders look... worse? Their highest paid player is ... riding the pine? And they traded a 5th rounder for him?

Nah. They traded for him when they didn't have Carr. For a 5th rounder, it's worth that security not knowing who your QB was and allowing you to not force a pick. I give them a lot of credit for not worrying about cost and going with the better player (Wilson over Flynn/Whitehurst).

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Jaime L Council Member

Jaime L

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Nah. They traded for him when they didn't have Carr. For a 5th rounder, it's worth that security not knowing who your QB was and allowing you to not force a pick. I give them a lot of credit for not worrying about cost and going with the better player (Wilson over Flynn/Whitehurst).

Me too. Though what makes me laugh about the Raiders is that despite now being at the very start of a total rebuild and despite starting a rookie QB, they nevertheless have the oldest roster in the NFL. How does that happen?!

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